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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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weathernet
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86646 - Sun Aug 30 2009 08:42 PM

Wave east of the Lesser Antilles is really a nice sized envelope system. Looks to have a significant mid level rotation, thus the overall model consensus wiht a WNW to NW bias. Best chances for development would appear if the system does lift more poleward, and fortunately would appear to lessen any eventual threat to the U.S. if given such motion. The system itself has really looked to be on the verge, yet seems to be "vertically challanged", given the 200mb 30kt/40kt southerly winds on its western flank.

It is this shear itself, along with a mid level flow attempting to move this system more poleward, verses a low level flow which has continued to push the overall system more westward, which I believe may all in tandum be an overall effect of snatching away any consistant convection from maintaining itself. I cannot see any development in the short term, if this system somehow continues to move with the lower level flow.


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JoshuaK
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: weathernet]
      #86648 - Mon Aug 31 2009 05:17 AM

Big blow up of strong convection over the low level circulation area. Could have a TD in the works, if it persists.

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ncskywarn
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86649 - Mon Aug 31 2009 05:33 AM

It looks like 94l may finally be trying to get its act together lets see if the convection persists or even expands over the circulation center as opposed to just pulse (even though to me it looks more impressive then it has the last couple of days with the convection close to the circulation center) . If it can maintain it thru-out the day my guess is the NHC will start initiating advisories at 5 PM.

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berrywr
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: weathernet]
      #86650 - Mon Aug 31 2009 05:49 AM

31/00Z package has an upper low north of Puerto Rico showing up quite nicely from 500mb to 200 mb with an inverted trough at 700 mb. The upper Bermuda ridge north and east of Bermuda with a ridge axis extending southwestward to Cuba and the pesky longwave trough once again making its presence known across the Eastern United States. SSEC Wind Shear analysis confirms upper low and upper ridge to its north presenting 94L with a hostile environment immediately to its northwest so while for the moment 94L looks quite ready to be classified a depression, unless the low shear environment that lies just above the system travels with it; it's going to be a tough go to sustain any kind of vertical development given the velocity of those winds aloft at this time. Overall upper pattern continues to put a cessation of any approach to the US at this time. Only threat to US is if this system remains shallow and upper trough over east retreats and fills over time and is replaced with upper ridge as some models are hinting. For the moment, upstairs is not a good place for tropical cyclones.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 31 2009 08:37 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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94L [Re: berrywr]
      #86652 - Mon Aug 31 2009 07:24 AM

Shouldn't be too long before we see an update on 94L. Appearance of a CDO like structure and banding would up the Dvorak numbers a bit. Earlier IR2 shortwave revealed a moderate amount of lightning in the CDO area.

31/0615 UTC 14.1N 49.5W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 31 2009 07:43 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 94L [Re: danielw]
      #86653 - Mon Aug 31 2009 08:02 AM

Using this link and allowing for the satellite eclipse. Current motion of the convective hot tower in the CDO area is about 300 to 310 degrees or WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
Current motion Should take the system along the Northern Edge of the Lesser Antilles. Again that's Should take the system...
Please refer to Official NHC Forecasts, Watches and Warnings and local Statements from Island Officials.

Latest Dvorak... up 0.5.
31/1145 UTC 15.2N 51.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
edited at 0925 EDT

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 31 2009 09:26 AM)


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hogrunr
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Re: 94L [Re: danielw]
      #86654 - Mon Aug 31 2009 09:34 AM

Quote:

Using this link and allowing for the satellite eclipse. Current motion of the convective hot tower in the CDO area is about 300 to 310 degrees or WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
Current motion Should take the system along the Northern Edge of the Lesser Antilles. Again that's Should take the system...
Please refer to Official NHC Forecasts, Watches and Warnings and local Statements from Island Officials.

Latest Dvorak... up 0.5.
31/1145 UTC 15.2N 51.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
edited at 0925 EDT




daniel....I agree that the initial motion is about 300 degrees, but right about the time the system hits 50W 15N on the map, it then begins to travel due west again along 15N. This of course, is just focusing on the convective center for now. It seems the motion is going to remain fairly wobbly for the time being, but I think most of the models are picking up on some new features to the north of the system and have it turning mostly due west after reaching the northern edge of the lesser antilles. This of course is assuming the models have picked up on enough of the new developments in the system.


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metwannabe
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Re: 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86656 - Mon Aug 31 2009 09:55 AM

Obviously I am no expert here, but any reason NHC will not start issuing advisories at 11 am? In fact I would think that if the "cdo" maintains it may jump straight to TS Erika. Any thoughts?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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hogrunr
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Re: 94L [Re: metwannabe]
      #86657 - Mon Aug 31 2009 09:59 AM

Quote:

Obviously I am no expert here, but any reason NHC will not start issuing advisories at 11 am? In fact I would think that if the "cdo" maintains it may jump straight to TS Erika. Any thoughts?




With the new explosion of convection I would also assume that the 11 am or 2pm would start advisories.

(Off-topic material removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 31 2009 10:06 AM)


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weathernet
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Re: 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86658 - Mon Aug 31 2009 10:07 AM

Though the current bursting trend is certainly impressive, I have not yet seen any bouy or ship obs. which have indicated any falling pressures this morning in the vicinity of 94L. If such a bursting pattern were to exist, then such surface convergence would seem to have to force falling pressures at some point. The upper air is no doubt less than perfect, but perhaps this significantly sized envelope system can some how fight it off. Though I have not checked, I have to believe that recon must be poised to investigate by early tomorrow.

Keep in mind that while some model adjustments ( especially the deep layer BAM and EURO ) have 94L bending back more westward with time, that such an element of longer term positon is also based on the current observation and near term forecast by current global models that 94L remains a shallow and weak system. If in fact 94L can continue to fight off the present upper level shear, than it may attain a bit more latitude in the near term, and thus the more reliable models will not only have a better handle on it, but will possibly cause the initialization of the system, at a point perhaps a little farther north. Beyond that, it is interesting how over time,the Euro certainly does build the longer term heights over the Western Atlantic and E. CONUS. Will have to wait and see if the next couple of runs continue to indicate such a pattern change.

:?:


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Evan Johnson
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Re: 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86659 - Mon Aug 31 2009 10:08 AM

right i would venture to say the jump right to a TS might be the case as well. it has bursted with convenction, and looks very organized. still moving westward into warmer waters.

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scottsvb
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Re: 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86660 - Mon Aug 31 2009 10:21 AM

Nope.....there is no NW winds near the center... there are some to the west but right now..this is more of a ENE-WSW elongated center... like Danny was @ first.

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hogrunr
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Re: 94L [Re: weathernet]
      #86661 - Mon Aug 31 2009 10:23 AM

Quote:

Though the current bursting trend is certainly impressive, I have not yet seen any bouy or ship obs. which have indicated any falling pressures this morning in the vicinity of 94L. If such a bursting pattern were to exist, then such surface convergence would seem to have to force falling pressures at some point. The upper air is no doubt less than perfect, but perhaps this significantly sized envelope system can some how fight it off. Though I have not checked, I have to believe that recon must be poised to investigate by early tomorrow.

Keep in mind that while some model adjustments ( especially the deep layer BAM and EURO ) have 94L bending back more westward with time, that such an element of longer term positon is also based on the current observation and near term forecast by current global models that 94L remains a shallow and weak system. If in fact 94L can continue to fight off the present upper level shear, than it may attain a bit more latitude in the near term, and thus the more reliable models will not only have a better handle on it, but will possibly cause the initialization of the system, at a point perhaps a little farther north. Beyond that, it is interesting how over time,the Euro certainly does build the longer term heights over the Western Atlantic and E. CONUS. Will have to wait and see if the next couple of runs continue to indicate such a pattern change.

:?:




If I remember right, there has been a slight drop in pressure, was 1010mb yesterday evening and is now being reported as 1007mb.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86662 - Mon Aug 31 2009 10:27 AM

The NHC might take the system to TD status at 15Z, but I doubt it. The convection is all to the east of the center. The center itself is roughly at 15N 53W at 31/14Z moving to the west northwest. Since the convection is removed from the actual center, its not really a 'cdo', i.e., the system is still quite disorganized.

Be patient - it will evolve, but just a bit more slowly. It has a rough shear environment ahead of it so intensification will probably be on the slow side. Finally, keep it 'civil' - NHC seems to have a pretty good handle on this one.
Thanks,
ED


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86664 - Mon Aug 31 2009 11:18 AM

Fairly confident that 94L actually still consists of two LLCs at present - this is borne out in the most recent scateromter passes from very late last night, and the nearest buoy data that suggests a NNE component to the wind well to the SW of the deepest convection. What has been sorely missing is any buoy or ship data within the deep convection. Windscat however strongly suggests that a far more well-defined LLC is taking shape mostly within that deep convection, not outside of it. This is also backed up by most of the deepest-piercing microwave imagery, that hints of a more dominant LLC near 15.3N 51.5W this morning, than any other location being estimated and tracked. There is almost no question in my own mind that 94L is already a tropical cyclone, that this more central and more co-located LLC has probably won the battle, and that baring any sudden weakening phase, advisories will be started very soon. By tomorrow we might hope for some better model data, but in the meantime it seems reasonable to toss out the bulk of the plots which were tracking a weaker system with a LLC a fair bit south of where the (now dominant, co-located LLC) actually is. This leaves those that fit best with the current extrapolated motion, roughly WNW to NW. These few all tend to cluster around a trip toward the southeast coast, but leave plenty of question as to timing, not to speak of degree of certainty of any possible recurvature back out to sea. Most likely it is now time for Floridians and those in the Antilles and elsewhere to begin keeping a very close eye, and making plans or changes to plans, as necessary.

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Tazmanian93
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86665 - Mon Aug 31 2009 11:43 AM

Good morning Ed / All... Just curious, is there anything to make of the system just East of the Turks and Caicos? Have not really looked at it yet

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Ed in Va
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #86666 - Mon Aug 31 2009 11:55 AM

I guess the NHC does think much of it, as it doesn't even show on the 11:00 graphic for possible development. Kind of surprising that it didn't, given the proximity to the U.S.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86667 - Mon Aug 31 2009 12:02 PM

The convection east of the Turks & Caicos is related to a ULL, and is not doing much at the surface. For a TUTT low to have any real chance to develop into a named system, it typically takes interaction with a potent tropical wave, or other such catalyst, and even then tropical cyclogenesis rarely occurs... so all that said, some slow development is a tiny bit possible.

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WeatherNut
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: cieldumort]
      #86668 - Mon Aug 31 2009 12:24 PM

I agree that there seem to be 2 LLC's. The inflow patterns are increasingly feeding into the center to the ENE. In fact it looks like some that are visible go right by the front running one directly to the dominant one back behind

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86669 - Mon Aug 31 2009 12:24 PM

Can we call 94L a double football pattern?
LLC is football shaped and on an east to west axis.
Mid and Upper Level is a bit more rounded but on a north south axis.
Yet another tilted storm.


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