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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: 94L [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #86694 - Tue Sep 01 2009 09:26 AM

okay well, why is it not organized at the surface, i had just joked to someone it is that ...but don't mesoscales move a little faster, can't see this really being just the world's slowest, largest moving mescoscale. Something is missing because I just don't buy that it can stay together so well and ventilate without some low level circulation. '

Is there a mid level? Are there no ship reports or anything from this area for surface obs?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 64
Re: 94L [Re: LoisCane]
      #86695 - Tue Sep 01 2009 09:36 AM

Quote:

okay well, why is it not organized at the surface, i had just joked to someone it is that ...but don't mesoscales move a little faster, can't see this really being just the world's slowest, largest moving mescoscale. Something is missing because I just don't buy that it can stay together so well and ventilate without some low level circulation. '

Is there a mid level? Are there no ship reports or anything from this area for surface obs?




Organization is not good, mainly due to southwesterly shear and elongation that can be tough to get rid of, but it is still a significant wave with good convergence east of the center. The eastern half is also further under an upper ridge so the blob has decent ventilation. The persistent intense blob has also created its own mid-level vorticity and that helps to keep the convection going.

Bottom line... the southwesterly shear over the west half of this system must ease if it is to develop.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 94L [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #86696 - Tue Sep 01 2009 10:33 AM

Wow , talk about a puzzle. This is the first time I have seen a storm develop at the upper levels first. Broad undefined circulation feeding the outflow. When this finally closes off at the surface there is no predicting the intensity. The leewards better be watching this as I am sure they are. If it looks like, walks like and quacks like a duck I guess its not a duck.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: 94L [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #86697 - Tue Sep 01 2009 10:43 AM

"persistent intense blob has also created its own mid-level vorticity and that helps to keep the convection going."

Thanks... will go with that for now. Makes sense.

I tell myself this is not normal, then I remember Debby, and remember that seemed not normal too!!



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86698 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:00 AM

Quote:

Wow , talk about a puzzle. This is the first time I have seen a storm develop at the upper levels first. Broad undefined circulation feeding the outflow. When this finally closes off at the surface there is no predicting the intensity. The leewards better be watching this as I am sure they are. If it looks like, walks like and quacks like a duck I guess its not a duck.




I have not heard any recent reports today but at one point I believe the system had gail-force winds, meaning the only thing it lacked to keep it from being Erika was a closed low. I assume that is still the case given current satelllite appearance (black on the AVN loop until about an hour ago). I jokingly said to someone last night, that 94L, not even organized enough to be a depression, had deeper convection than Jimena did at its peak intensity. Obviously 94L is not a Cat-5 hurricane, but if it were not for the shear, it could develop rapidly.

Currently, it looks less organized to me than it did a few hours ago, so I think they will wait for recon reports before pulling the trigger, and it would surprise me for recon to find a closed LLC.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86699 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:04 AM

Quote:

Wow , talk about a puzzle. This is the first time I have seen a storm develop at the upper levels first. Broad undefined circulation feeding the outflow. When this finally closes off at the surface there is no predicting the intensity.




Agreed. I've seen the NHC call much more disorganized blobs of nothing a TS and often questioned their reasoning behind it. Then you get a storm like this which looks like a very healthy TS, but the NHC still has it only labeled as an Invest. The outflow is incredible on this system, if it can over come the shear & get a low-level center it could quickly ramp up. The computer models can't get a handle on it either, some are saying it could drift west for days and still not develop much.

The visual satellite loop shows a slight low-level circulation to the west but the shear is pushing all the thunderstorms off to the east. The water vapor loop shows what looks like your typical tropical system with a deep center core and lighter outflow moving around it. Yet at this time we got nothing... very strange indeed.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 94L [Re: JMII]
      #86700 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:09 AM

This is one of the oddest systems I've seen to date too. If anything does form at the surface it could ramp up quite quickly. Apparent center still seems elongated, at this point really I think they are just waiting for recon. This system would make a good case study for storm development.

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: 94L [Re: MikeC]
      #86701 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:29 AM

it is a very interesting storm to say in the least. i still cant believe the NHC waiting till the thing is 200 miles away from the leeward islands and they still havent dubbed it a storm. talk about last minute. you are right though mike. as soon as that plane comes back they will dub it a storm due to the fact everything else they see confuses them as much as it confuses us. afterall someone once said "you want to know if its cloudy? go outside.". i would venture to say however, it wont take anymore then the rest of this afternoon to dub it a storm.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86702 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:40 AM

It looks a lot like Danny did. Tilted system with good mid and upper level structure, but weak low level presence.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86703 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:47 AM

Easy now...
I too believe that it's probably a Depression at the least. At the surface.
Visible shots of the mid and upper levels reveal something akin to a Tropical Storm with really nice outflow overhead. Which is normally conducive for development.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: 94L [Re: MikeC]
      #86704 - Tue Sep 01 2009 12:02 PM

If a tropical system looks like a depression or storm is it odd? Like Danny, the upper environment around 94L is just plain hostile and closer examination of satellite images reveals the fact that whatever vertical depth 94L/Erika obtains, is likely to be sheared apart if the light shear directly over the system; and I mean dead over it doesn't move with the system with the exception of confluence at the low levels and difluence aloft; it may look pretty, but it has no chance of structurally developing as long as that pesty upper low north of Hispanola exists and remains nearby.

If 94L remains shallow enough as the upper environment becomes less hostile then and only then will we be talking about where it will go. There are some hints in the model data that 94L/Erika will be with us for a while, especially if the upper (Bermuda-Azore) ridge begins to strengthen and make its presence known to its west and the persistent longwave trough over the eastern US weakens and retreats north.

In the here and now, it would be torn apart with the shear that is currently in place along its course.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: 94L [Re: danielw]
      #86705 - Tue Sep 01 2009 12:14 PM

That is not outflow. This is shear. Please take a closer look at both the current Wind Shear analysis out of SSEC and satellite imagery of the adjacent cells around 94L. Wind Shear analysis will confirm there are 30 to 50 knots southwest winds aloft along its course and 20 knots of north winds aloft to its east and southeast. There is very light shear directly over the system and to its northeast where analysis indicates 10 knots. Outflow or the mechanism which a tropical storm/hurricane has cirrus rotating anti-cyclonic away from it requires an upper ridge/high above the system...think of it as breathing...air rises up the center of the system and is directed away at the top. Shear in the configuration it is currently can be interpreted as outflow because of the directions in this case were talking about. Whether the system is classified a depression or storm is not as important as for the immediate future what lies aloft in its way. Today, the system is in a tough, tough environment aloft! A couple of days from now or a slow moving system where the light shear over it remains in place as it travels west northwest is the only way this system can survive in the near term. The models are hinting at changes which are more conducive for 94L to develop into something more substantial, but not today.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
NWSFO - San Juan - Area Forecast Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #86706 - Tue Sep 01 2009 12:25 PM

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011435
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW. BROAD AREA LOW PRES TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT COULD BECOME THE FIFTH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...FCST FOR TODAY IS QUITE SIMPLE. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS. SHOWERS
IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PR DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

FCST FOR THU-FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION
OF BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH AT THIS TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CENTER FIXES DONE AT 06Z BY TAFB AND SAB AGENCIES WERE
AT 16.3N 55.6W AND 16.4N 55.9W RESPECTIVELY. COORDINATED WITH
BOTH ANALYSTS ON THE PHONE THIS MORNING AND BOTH INDICATED A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIXES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS. A 0406Z TMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. 06Z EARLY CYCLE NHC MODELS SHOW TRACKS
RANGING FROM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PR TO AS FAR NORTH AS 20N
IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME OR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK FCST UNTIL
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HRS. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI ARE REMINDED
THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE IN THE ORDER OF 167 TO 230
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME. THE FIRST HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INTERCEPT THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2PM AND WILL GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM...ITS EXACT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM HPC`S INTERNATIONAL
DESK YESTERDAY...THE FLOW DOMINATING THE ATLC TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND TO THE EAST OF 70W IS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS TUTT LOWS WITH
CELLS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING MIGRATORY AND OF SHORT
DURATION RESULTING IN VERY ILL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. I WOULD
EXPECT THE TRACK FCST WITH THIS STORM TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING
WITH LOTS OF ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND WOBBLES WITH A MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORM IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TON OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM MOVING AT AVERAGE
OF SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH THE GFDL INDICATING SPEEDS AS SLOW AS 4 KT AT TIMES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND 48 HRS IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?...&glossary=1

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 01 2009 01:37 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: berrywr]
      #86707 - Tue Sep 01 2009 12:26 PM

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

THE PERTURBATION ALONG 52W BECAME VERY ACTIVE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO
SUSTAIN A FLARE UP IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BUT MODERATE SHEAR
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF DRY AIR DAMPENED FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...WITH IR IMAGES NOW SHOWING WARMING TOPS. THE
INFLOW OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT...AND BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE CAPTURE THIS QUITE WELL. AS THE
PERTURBATION ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME OF THE
ENERGY SHEARING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WHILE THE REST CONTINUES TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BASIN. THEY THEN FORECAST THE NORTHERN SEGMENT
TO EVOLVE INTO AN ILL ORGANIZED LOW BY MID CYCLE. THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ABOVE. OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10-15MM/DAY ON DAY 02...WHILE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO
RICO IT WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY. OVER NORTHERN GUYANA/ORINOCO DELTA REGION WE EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-40MM/DAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html


--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 01 2009 01:31 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: berrywr]
      #86708 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:03 PM

94L does have a closed LLC now...albeit weak of 1009mbs heading WNW or 290dg... its circulation is small..and lacking T-Storms near the center.....still though T-Storms with winds around 40-50mph are placed well east of the center by over 100 miles due to the shear over the LLC. The NHC can classify this as a TD since it does now have a LLC and slight chance a T.S. but I doubt they will go that high due to the lacking of T-Storms over the LLC.
Models will still diverge some until the system gets better organized...if it does @ all. Shear is the main factor... a more developed system will move more NW...a sheared system will move more W or WNW over the next few days.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: 94L [Re: danielw]
      #86709 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:16 PM

Very interesting system. Appears to me what was perhaps a looser tilted broad center, might now be slowly coming closer to closing off. At this point any improvement from yesterday's low level structure is still perhaps moot. Which is not to say that NHC won't classify this as a depression, following today's recon intercept. My guess is that assuming that recon measures winds to gale force, if even well removed from the center, that they will in fact find light west winds at the surface, and a broad ( but slightly improved & "co-located" ) surface low on the systems west side ), thus technically closing off a low. Point being, this system continues to move in a fashion perhaps close enough to the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico and though slightly subtle changes could rip 94L apart, equally subtle changes could allow some significant development. Even given upper air conditions remaining unchanged for 24-36 hours, SST's should be slightly on the increase to a mean temp of 29C ( or perhaps slightly higher ).

Will the upper low continue further impinge on 94L or perhaps at minimum, move generally westward in tandem with it? Outflow in the eastern quadrant, as observed by others remains healthy. Given the girth of 94L, and if it were to slow down as some models anticipate, than given the vigorous mid level structure it seems to have developed, I would tend to think that the upper level ridge hanging onto the systems east side, might build more firmly over this system. If such were to occur, and assuming the systems present size and mid level structure, than like others, I would agree could undergo some impressive and fast deepening. It is slightly interesting that though the model trends for intensity have not changed much, the GFDL has jumped on the bandwagon for development, rather than carrying this as an open wave.

Given any mid term long wave pattern shift, this would no doubt impact the motion and transiency of not just 94L, but of other inhibiting mid/upper level forces currently at play.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: scottsvb]
      #86710 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:17 PM

if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks when you squeeze it.... it might just be pretending to be a duck.
Given the appearance of a LLC now, albeit one way ahead of the convection, I don't see how the NHC can hold the trigger and NOT call it at least a depression. The question is, will the LLC survive? If it were even on the outer fringe of the CDO, I'd give it a decent chance. Where it is.... it's not going to do much except bring a lot of rains to the northern islands.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 64
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: scottsvb]
      #86711 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:21 PM

There is certainly a main surface vortex easily seen on the visible loop. It's not real strong, but the recon plane currently approaching the system may be able to close it off. If they do, it wouldn't surprise me if the NHC named it. The shear still needs to drop, though, for this system to do anything major.

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #86712 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:28 PM

There is a westerly wind at the surface:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 91.4 °F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
94L [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #86713 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:42 PM

So far the winds being reported by RECON don't quite meet the Tropical Storm speeds.
I believe the highest so far was 40 mph at flight level. Even though they are close, they Still have to close off a Low before 94L advances to the next level or Tropical Depression status.


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