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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: MikeC]
      #86809 - Wed Sep 02 2009 02:47 PM

Okay, so let's get back to Erika. We have a storm with an inconsistent center that almost all the models agree in intensifying and moving in the general direction of South Florida with possible track curving out to sea or dissipating it ...

This is not a storm out in the middle of the Atlantic that the shear and subsidence is going to possibly rip apart between swimming out to sea.

I see a lot of things, a lot of possibilities.

And, I want a real reason not to pay attention to models that are in agreement when those same models have done a bang up job of predicting the track of the last few storms.

The NHC relies heavily upon those models, usually averaging and comparing tracks and respecting them.

Suddenly they throw out the CMC and the HWRF. Why?

What are we missing.

This isn't Chris and it isn't Debby... it's Erika and I think there are a lot of questions to answer.

A missing piece here of the puzzle...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: MikeC]
      #86810 - Wed Sep 02 2009 02:52 PM

I think this one may be a little more complex than the Chris scenario. The system appears to have multiple LLCs and the MLC seems to be creating more of them and spitting them out. How long the system can continue doing this before shear tears it apart, I'm not sure, but Recon has found quite a few 45mph winds east of the center and not in the heaviest convection.

I think the system is a mess, but not ready to give up the ghost.

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: Bloodstar]
      #86811 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:01 PM

No, not ready to give up the ghost either and it's a pretty strong ghost... as deep signatures.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 771
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: LoisCane]
      #86812 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:08 PM

She does look a little better on the last frame of the loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #86813 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:12 PM

Yes it does look better convection wise, the problem, can still be seen on this loop, the low level circulation is not centered under the convection. They haven't officially split yet, and they may or may not. But until there is a circulation under the upper level convergence, the system will struggle to stay together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


The confusing thing to me, as I've stated before, is the Intensity models that are being ignored. I understand the Model tracks are inaccurate right now because of the disorganization of the system, but it would seem that the Intensity models would be able to take the environmental conditions surrounding the storm into account fairly well. And yet, we are to ignore them right now.

Edited by hogrunr (Wed Sep 02 2009 03:16 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: hogrunr]
      #86814 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:21 PM

This RGB IR loop shows the lower level circulation substnatially east of the main convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86815 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM

Quote:

This RGB IR loop shows the lower level circulation substnatially east of the main convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html




You'd think that, but as the HHs have found out and according to the NHC there are multiple LLCs floating around. the actual vortex fix appears to be between the two LLCs.
From the NHC:

"THERE ARE MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION."

What you see racing off to the west is not the true LLC of Erika.

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 277
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: hogrunr]
      #86816 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM

If looks to threaten Florida throw everything out ....Just Kidding......Its getting battered bye shear and the models that take her west into the islands call for a weak or dissipating system over Hispanola. The models that pull her north call for a stronger system, heading for an eventual weakness in the ridge north north east of the Bahamas. For florida you want something right in between and that's a lot to ask for in my opinion.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: Robert]
      #86817 - Wed Sep 02 2009 03:30 PM

Quote:

If looks to threaten Florida throw everything out ....Just Kidding......Its getting battered bye shear and the models that take her west into the islands call for a weak or dissipating system over Hispanola. The models that pull her north call for a stronger system, heading for an eventual weakness in the ridge north north east of the Bahamas. For florida you want something right in between and that's a lot to ask for in my opinion.




Careful now, suggesting that is definitely not throwing data out the window. Look at how many models (including the GFS) have it doing that exact thing right now:

Erika Wundermap


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: MikeC]
      #86818 - Wed Sep 02 2009 04:41 PM

Multiple centers, spin off circulations, and more with Erika. The setup ahead is a forecaster's nightmare, even if the "most likely" situation is for it to weaken and possibly dissipate, it's by no means certain. The westward motion will win out, and the analogs of Chris in 2006 and Debby in 2000 are the most similar in my memory, but certainly Erika is going to be different.

Again the satellite IR loop looks impressive, while the visible not so much. The westerly shear this year is keeping everything in check.

I'm still thinking it will fall apart before it gets too far West.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: MikeC]
      #86819 - Wed Sep 02 2009 05:13 PM

Maybe I've just been looking at the satellite too long but it seems like there is a new (at least new for the Upper level) circulation point forming over an existing LLC on the NW side of the storm. Near the new flare up of convection.



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Cape Weather
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Cape Canaveral 28.45N 80.53W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: MikeC]
      #86820 - Wed Sep 02 2009 05:35 PM

I just got done speaking with some folks on Antigua, they are having winds of 15-20 with some good swells coming in. The Airforce tracking station there is getting ready to stowe their antennas later this evening. Any forecasts out there for what they could expect?

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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
she is coming back.... [Re: Cape Weather]
      #86821 - Wed Sep 02 2009 05:39 PM

LLC has slowed, and the convection east of her is beginning to catch up. Additionally, there is convection starting to fire over the LLC.....

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 297
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further [Re: Cape Weather]
      #86822 - Wed Sep 02 2009 05:58 PM

Here is a great site dedicated to weather in the leewards.

http://www.weathercarib.com/

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: she is coming back.... [Re: SeaMule]
      #86823 - Wed Sep 02 2009 06:35 PM

Quote:

LLC has slowed, and the convection east of her is beginning to catch up. Additionally, there is convection starting to fire over the LLC.....




I think what you're seeing is the LLC being pulled around by the overall cyclonic circulation. That the system is such a complex and disorganized Tropical Storm doesn't help with the intensity and track.

The storms that are firing up over the LLC are interesting, but we'll need a few more hours to see if those storms can sustain and expand their coverage. If they do, at the very least it'll buy Erika some more time.

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: she is coming back.... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #86824 - Wed Sep 02 2009 10:37 PM

So couple things overall. First, the intensity plots still have Erika increasing in strength out to 120 hours, and don't show any decline (that's as far out as the intensity will take it). Actually I take that back, a couple have a dip in the strength (i'm assuming this is Erika passing over some sort of land in the Caribbean) and then it begins to increase again. Second, there are more and more tracks starting to take Erika south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and Cuba. What affect would this have on Erika's chances of surviving? I know there is still a lot of Shear out there to consider.... but from looking at several of the shear models, it seems shear would be lightening a good bit about the time this system would be on the south side of Cuba (assuming it survives that long).

Anyway, long winded question, how does everyone see these situations affecting Erika overall?


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: she is coming back.... [Re: hogrunr]
      #86825 - Wed Sep 02 2009 11:27 PM

To me it looks like the LLC will be getting better organized over the next 12 hrs... midlevel rainshield approaching the LLC which appears to be just east of the NHC plot @ 11pm... 16.2N and 62.2W and drifting NW.... A large area of low-midlevel rainshield should penetrate the LLC between 1am-4am eastern... We will have to see if the pressure falls when recon checks this out later.. not sure it will much by 2am..but maybe by 5am.. Its really up in the air on this.
NHC west movement is really skepitcal to say the least... Erika hasnt moved much in the past 4 hrs..if anything a slight NNW drift of 2mph. Next 6hrs will be interesting to see if this gets its act together some and to see if the pressure drops 3-4mbs... guess time will tell!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: she is coming back.... [Re: scottsvb]
      #86826 - Thu Sep 03 2009 03:03 AM

agree with ya scott to a degree... recon just made first pass.... does appear center stalled after passing those islands this afternoon... and its not moving much... 1008mb and flt. lv winds of 6kts on se side... whoa! i think she has help on the way... the radar image loops show the best overall setup of the storm i think... yesterday evening she hauled but to the islands.. crossed into carib. and then got stuck... lost he punch.. but now appears she may begin to move again and gain convection... the factors slowing this... are the wind shear ahead...

Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 6:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°40'N 62°31'W (16.6667N 62.5167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 20 miles (33 km) to the WSW (256°) from Salem, Montserrat.

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)

appears stronger winds are showing up to the north of center... recon is north of center now... bout to cross into Atlantic

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 149
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: she is coming back.... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #86827 - Thu Sep 03 2009 04:16 AM

Erika is looking better this early morning than she has been in the last couple of days. I think the NHC track is a little premature in calling for her dissipaton, but we'll see soon enough. I remember the last Erika forming just to the west of Fort Myers from a Tropical Wave had just passed over the state.

In addition to Erika, big vigorous Tropical Wave just emerged off of the African coastline, and NHC has a code yellow issued on this system.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 297
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: she is coming back.... [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86828 - Thu Sep 03 2009 06:38 AM

What a mess. We have a couple microwave passes that just looking at overall symmetry would put what looks to be the most dominant circulation just NE of Antigua/ Barbuda. I wish they would put this instrument on a geostationary sat. At this point moving W to WNW even moving through the islands there is not much to get ripped apart. I see Erika, even if she is downgraded continuing to spin off vortices in different directions until conditions become more favorable if they ever do. We still have two intensity camps -- remmnant low on one side -- storm to hurricane on the other -- all heading in the general direction of the Bahamas. Like I said what a mess. HIHO-HIHO

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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