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Recon reports suggest Alberto is transitioning to a fully Tropical Storm, 998mb pressure.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 230 (Nate) , Major: 248 (Maria) Florida - Any: 258 (Irma) Major: 258 (Irma)
23.4N 84.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1002mb
Moving:
N at 13 mph
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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Ohio
Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico
      #86613 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:19 AM

Jimena has spun up in a hurry in the E. Pac., going from a TD at 0300 UTC Sat. to a 90 knot hurricane at the same time Sunday. It is conservatively progged to become a 125 kt. Cat. 4 storm in 36 hours.

The track forecast is interesting. The NHC forecasts Jimena to stay offshore of Baja, but I have my doubts on that. I think they are putting too much weight on the global models that have the storm initiated too weak. The GFDL and the HWRF seem to have a better handle on the system. The GFDL might be too far east, taking it north almost immediately and taking it into Mexico passing close to Mazatlan. The HWRF might be a good compromise, taking it just east of Baja into the Gulf of California and into Mexico near Los Mochis. Baja and the Mexican coast will really have to watch this one. It could bring some good rains into the Southwest by midweek.


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico [Re: vpbob21]
      #86647 - Mon Aug 31 2009 12:46 AM

I'm keeping an eye on this storm. Latest forecast track has it striking Baja California as a Cat 4 hurricane Tuesday evening, just to the west of La Paz. If it continues on or near the forecast track, with the forecasted intesity or stronger, Baja is looking to take a major hit from this hurricane.

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico [Re: vpbob21]
      #86651 - Mon Aug 31 2009 06:13 AM

Yeah I've been keeping an eye on Jimena. That storm is huge! Not to go off topic here, but with the core of the storm stretching from 15N to 20N, it looks like storms are spawning in association with it's circulation from 30N to 10N!

(Post moved to appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 31 2009 08:34 AM)


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NickH
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Nebraska
Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86673 - Mon Aug 31 2009 02:55 PM

The hurricane hunters just found winds to 150mph inside Jimena! Incredible storm. I think Baja is gonna have very dangerous impacts with this cyclone.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico [Re: NickH]
      #86676 - Mon Aug 31 2009 03:42 PM

Someone speculated earlier on the path on the moisture from Jimena...here's the afternoon HPC discussion on it....wide divergence in the models:

AS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A
MONSOON SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/SEA OF
CORTEZ TO ITS EAST...ENHANCING RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO BEFORE MOVING
INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SERIOUSLY TO THE RIGHT WITH ITS TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS...NOW TAKING ITS MID-LEVEL REMNANT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK RATHER THAN WEST ALONG 20N INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC. THE
NORTHEAST TREND IN THE NHC GUIDANCE LED TO A ONE DAY ACCELERATION
OF THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THIS MOISTURE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE MOISTURE FEED EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTED INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS WEEKEND. AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.50
INCH OR MORE PER DAY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TOPOGRAPHY IN ARIZONA
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86863 - Fri Sep 04 2009 12:39 AM

Jimena is playing hard to dissipate, as it is still a Tropical Storm over the Gulf of California, defying the NHC forecast track so far by moving the ESE at 1 mph, still drawing on the warm waters there to maintain it's status as a Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rains are definitly the big issue with this system now, and will continue to be depending on how long he lasts.

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