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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ex Grace Approaching Wales, 91L Struggling
      #86991 - Sun Oct 04 2009 09:56 PM

2PM EDT Update 6 October 2009
Ex Grace has moved south of Ireland as is quickly approaching the coast of Wales in the United Kingdom.



91L has struggled to develop, but continues. Chances of development for that remain around 30%

Original Updates
An upper level low well west of Portugal is rapidly acquiring tropical characteristics with well defined banding and an eye or eye-like feature. The cyclone was located near 40.5N 21.5W at 05/00Z - moving to the northeast at about 25 knots. At 05/01Z the eye-like feature was not as well defined. Although southerly windshear is increasing, since this is a hybrid system it should be able to maintain its tropical identity for a short period of time with probable movement to the north northeast and northeast. No model data is currently available on this system, however, NHC advisories may be initiated at 05/03Z.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued by NHC for this system:
"SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
AZORES

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS."

ADDED: System was upgraded to Tropical Storm Grace at 05/0300Z with winds of 65mph and pressure at 990mb moving northeast at 25mph.

ED



As for 91L, east of the Caribbean islands, the current conditions in the area suggest it will continue moving more westward. Right now it has a 30% of development, and is hard to say if it will ever develop. If it does it will be important to watch. Even if it does develop it may weaken later. The October set up is much different than August, and if anything does come of it, it will have to be watched.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Grace Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Grace


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Grace (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Grace (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Grace

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Grace
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Grace -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Note: Skeetobite graphic currently is an older 91L and not the current.
Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Edited by MikeC (Tue Oct 06 2009 01:41 PM)


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Tropical Storm Grace Forms in Far Northeast Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86992 - Mon Oct 05 2009 02:20 AM

Minor Note - First sentence, shouldn't it be well WEST of Portugal?

And kind of suprising to see something like this that far out there this time of year, but then again with the El Nino enviorement in the Atlantic this year, up and out there might be just one of the best places for conductive Tropical Cyclone enviorement in the whole Atlantic. >_>


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Grace Forms in Far Northeast Atlantic [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86993 - Mon Oct 05 2009 10:31 AM

Yep- good catch. Invest 91L remains very disorganized near 11N 46.5W at 05/14Z moving west at 10 knots. With SSTs near 29C and an area of low shear for the next 48 hours or so, the system does have a chance for further slow development as it moves to the west and west northwest.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Grace...Remnants [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86995 - Tue Oct 06 2009 03:30 AM

Looks like the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace will pass close to Ireland and other parts of the U.K.
I would think that it has been quite a few years since the U.K. has seen a Tropical Depression.

Hope that Grace rains out before she arrives.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Amazing [Re: danielw]
      #86996 - Tue Oct 06 2009 08:47 AM

Every season there are some things that you most certainly don't see everyday.

But "Amazing" seems to me to be the most appropriate word to describe this rarity.



At 1000Z, the circulation of former Tropical Storm (and arguably a possible post-season bump to former hurricane) Grace, now embedded within a frontal zone, on approach for a landfall along the shores of the United Kingdom.


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