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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Typhoon Melor Bears Down on Saipan
      #86987 - Fri Oct 02 2009 01:00 AM

I had been posting on Melor in the other thread, but I feel like they should each have their own thread. So I started this thread on Melor, and I'll keep posting Parma stuff in the other thread.

Typhoon Melor has continued to steadily strengthen today, and is at 120 kts. (140 mph). It is about 330 miles east (and slightly south) of Saipan. After moving steadily WNW to NW for a couple days, Melor made a rather significant jog to the west today. Although it seems to have resumed a more WNW course recently, the earlier jog will likely take Melor perilously close to Saipan, perhaps within 50 miles. Typhoon warnings are in effect for Saipan (as well as Tinian) and typhoon conditions look like a good bet, probably within 24 hours. It is likely that Melor will be a supertyphoon by then as well.

After Melor clears the Northern Marianas the global models are suggesting a threat to Japan for early-mid next week. The official forecast takes the intensity up to 145 kts. (165 mph) as the storm starts to recurve and head north late in the 5-day period.


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Melor Appears to be Passing Safely North of Saipan [Re: vpbob21]
      #86989 - Fri Oct 02 2009 11:33 PM

Typhoon Melor has been staggering its way generally to the WNW. After a significant jog to the west yesterday, a bit of a trough dug down to its west and pulled Melor back to the northwest. The trough also imparted some shear on Melor, and it has not been strengthening today. The storm is about 130 miles ENE of Saipan, and should pass about 70 miles north of the island tonight. Winds are at 115 kts. Currently Saipan is reporting gusts to 37 mph and a pressure of 1000 mb. Unless the storm maks a move back to the SW sustained typhoon force winds should stay north of the island. Probably winds of 50-60 mph with gusts to 70 can be expected. The Northern Marianas are well equipped to handle typhoons, and I wouldn't expect this storm to cause a whole lot of disruption.

Later on Melor should recurve toward Japan in about 3 days. The models differ on how sharp a recurvature it will be. The JTWC is favoring one that will keep Melor just offshore. Other models (most notably the ECMWF) bring it much further west and over Japan. It will be interseting to see how this plays out.


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Melor Becomes a Supertyphoon over the Open Pacific [Re: vpbob21]
      #86990 - Sat Oct 03 2009 11:56 PM

Melor has intensified into an awesome 145 kt. (165 mph) supertyphoon. Check it out with this terrific IR loop (thanks again to CoconutCandy for posting this on the other thread)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html

In spite of Melor moving more west than expected today, the forecast is still pretty much the same with recurvature expected short of 130 E. and a close brush with Japan in a little over 3 days. It will be in a heavy shear environment by then and should be weakening and losing tropical characteristics.


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Typhoon Melor About to Cross Japan [Re: vpbob21]
      #86999 - Wed Oct 07 2009 01:02 AM

Typhoon Melor has recurved over the Northwest Pacific and is moving NNE with 85 kt. (100 mph) winds. It will likely make landfall within about 18 hours in Japan on the Kii Peninsula, then track NE across the length of the island, passing a little west of Tokyo in 24 hours. It will be weakening but should still bring tropical storm force winds to Tokyo. It will eventually become a big extratropical low that will be moving south of the Aleutians by this weekend.

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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: Typhoon Melor About to Cross Japan [Re: vpbob21]
      #87007 - Tue Oct 13 2009 12:56 AM

Melor's remains marched across the Pacific and is now wrapped up in a big extratropical storm that is about to hammer the West Coast the next couple days. Rainfall amounts up to 12" are possible on west-facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and wind gusts to 60 mph may occur in the San Francisco Bay area.

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