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vpbob21
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Ohio
TD #20-E Expected to Deepen Explosively to Cat. 4
      #87012 - Thu Oct 15 2009 06:41 PM

A tropical wave that crossed Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific a couple days ago has organized into Tropical Depression #20-E, about 375 miles SSE of Acapulco. Most of the global models have been forecasting tropical cyclone formation in this area for several days, and the storm seems to be consolidating nicely.

Nearly all models are expecting TD #20-E (which will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Rick later tonight or tomorrow morning) to intensify rapidly over the next 72 hours. The NHC is taking the intensity up to 115 kts. in 5 days. The NHC is usually pretty conservative with the intesity of newly-formed storms, and I don't know that I've ever seen them forecast category 4 intensity on the very first advisory. It is passing over some of the warmest water in the basin (over 30C) and shear looks very low, so these numbers look realistic, if not a little conservative.

Baja California is really going to have to watch this one. The official NHC forecast has 20-E about 350 miles SW of the southern tip in 5 days, and bending north. Past GFS runs have been taking it across Baja in the 6-7 day period. I would expect some recon aircraft will be flying into the storm at some point.


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Tropical Depression 20E Forms - MAJOR Hurricane Expected [Re: vpbob21]
      #87014 - Thu Oct 15 2009 07:25 PM

Oops. Apologies to vpbob for starting a new post on the new depression. Seems as though we were composing our posts at the same time. So in deference to your post, since yours was first, I will submit mine as a reply to yours.

----------------------------------------------------

For a season that's so far seen 22 tropical depressions or named storms form in the Western Pacific, the Eastern Pacific is not very far behind with 20 depressions or named storms thus far into what is turning out to be a very active season.

Tropical Depression 20E has rapidly formed, partly from the remnants of Atlantic storm Henri, and is epected to undergo 'exposive intensification' in the coming days as it travels over waters warmer than normal and attain Major Hurricane status with sustained winds at least 115 Kts. (135 mph) by the end of the 5 day forecast period.

Fortunately, soon-to-be Tropical Storm 'MIKE' will parallel Mexico's west coast and remain well offshore, before recurving to the north as a major hurricane, again well away from Cabo San Lucas.



From the 1st advisory from the NHC ...

Quote:


"THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER ... ALL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR, WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO FALL BELOW 900 MB.

... THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR FAST STRENGTHENING ... WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY 12 HR, A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. ... THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.





It will be interesting to watch over the next few days as 'Mike' rapidly ramps up to become a major hurricane and analyze the structural transformation from depression to a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane, especially knowing that no land areas will be threatened or affected, at least over the next 4 or 5 days.

But as vpbob has pointed out, it certainly bears closely watching and a track to the right of that currently forecast could potentially bring at least flooding rains and possible damaging winds to a large section of the coastline.

Stay tuned for future storm developments ...


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