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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Watching Two Waves in the Atlantic
      #87021 - Sat Oct 17 2009 09:37 PM

8:30 AM Update 20 October 2009
Western Caribbean system is now being tracked as 94L. We are watching this system closely.

Note the maps and recordings below may take a few hours to get together since these are both new invests. Early model runs are not too reliable. But they suggest that it could develop within the next few days.

It is likely to drift for a bit, maybe west, or more north. If it moves north it has a chance to develop with a very high ocean heat content beneath it in that part of the Western Caribbean. However, shear has been the name of the game this year and that may keep this system from becoming too strong as well. Currently it's more of a rain threat to Central America than anything else.

95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




7AM Update 20 October 2009
The area in the western Caribbean is still worth watching for slow development, Right no9w it has <30% chance of development in the next 48 hours. IT's expected to slowly drift northward. This system has the potential to be a surprise to wherever it winds up, even if it's not all that likely it will it is worth watching.

New this morning, 93L is also being tracked in the central Atlantic, it also has <30% chance of development. It will be watched, but most likely nothing will come of it at all.

Original Update
Not much is going on the Atlantic still, but the East Pacific has seen develop one of the most powerful storms seen in that basin with Hurricane Rick, it is now a Category 5 system. with a windspeed of 160 MPH



It is not expected to remain at this intensity but those along the Baja peninsula in Mexico will want to monitor Rick very closely.

However, for us in the Atlantic, some models are suggesting we may want to watch the Western Caribbean later next week. But the shear is too high in most of the Atlantic otherwise which keeps chances fairly low.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
(Note maps below may take a while to reflect true position of these systems)
93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Rick in the East Pacific, Nothing in the Atlantic Still [Re: MikeC]
      #87023 - Sun Oct 18 2009 08:47 AM

Several of the latest models bring the remains/ remnants of Cat 5 Hurricane Rick into the Rio Grand Valley area of Texas (Tejas) over the next 5 day period.
Then east down the I-10 Corridor while merging with a cool/ cold front. Could be a bad scenario as tropical air and cool fronts tend to wring out copious amounts of rainfall.

Stay tuned!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Watching Two Waves in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #87026 - Tue Oct 20 2009 12:25 PM

My guess is that if the remnants of Rick follow that forecast, and if a tropical disturbance comes north from the W. Carribean, as they tend to do in late season, those two features will usher in the final pattern change for the season.

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NW Caribbean Heads UP [Re: doug]
      #87030 - Thu Oct 22 2009 11:07 AM

FXUS02 KWBC 211830
PMDEPD

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 24 2009 - 12Z WED OCT 28 2009

OVER THE TROPICS THE 00Z ECMWF EXHIBITS ANOTHER CONTINUITY CHANGE
IN DOWNPLAYING ANY POTENTIAL NWRN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
THAT PRIOR RUNS HAD ADVERTISED. THE 00Z GFS NOW DEPICTS A WEAK
SYSTEM WHILE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RATHER ILL DEFINED. THE FINAL
HPC FCST BRINGS A WEAK FEATURE TOWARD WRN CUBA BY DAY 7 WED. THIS
IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED UPON LATEST AND LESS
ORGANIZED SATELLITE TRENDS AFTER COORDINATION WITH TPC.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDEPD



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW THAT CENTERS BETWEEN CAYMAN BRAC/EASTERN CUBA BY
MID CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HRS. AT 500 HPA IT
WILL EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH GFS MODEL FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO PERSIST
THROUGH 72-84 HRS AS A LOW CLOSES BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
JAMAICA. NOTE THAT THE REGIONAL NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION. THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IS
INTERACTING WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...SUSTAINING THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALONG THIS
AXIS THE GFS AND REGIONAL NAM GRADUALLY FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY 48-60 HRS...WITH GFS PROJECTING QUICK
EVOLUTION TO A CYCLONE THROUGH 72-84 HRS. THE ECMWF PREVIOUSLY
AGREED WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT ITS LATEST ITERATION FAVORS A
OPEN TROUGH. WE EXPECT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME A PROBLEM
EARLY THIS PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AFTER 60 HRS...WHEN THE TROUGH
DAMPENS...CONDITIONS MIGHT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ALSO TO
CONSIDER...MJO CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE...AND ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS...SO WE CANNOT
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF A CYCLONE FORMING ALONG THIS AXIS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDCA

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 22 2009 11:19 AM)


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