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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87130 - Fri Nov 06 2009 01:00 PM

I don't think Ida is an apt comparison to the storm of the century. That one was a completely different bird with the mass of extreme cold air and the jet stream behind it. It is the only time I can remember being in the 70's in the morning and seeing snow in the afternoon without getting on a plane. Not to mention it happened in Florida.

Assuming Ida continues on to hit the coast, unless the factors push it back into the Northern Caribbean for a few days after it emerges into the Gulf(a scenario with slight possibility but not one of the likely ones), I just can not see Ida becoming a dangerous storm to Florida. Ida is going to have to camp out near Cuba to really gain some strength. I am not saying it is not possible; but I would not be changing any plans to come to Florida because of Ida.

--------------------
Jim


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Rasvar]
      #87133 - Fri Nov 06 2009 01:55 PM

I was just thinking that similar strength, on shore winds in this part of Florida are not good no matter what type of storm is causing it. Ida or its remains could be very damaging along the Gulf coast of Florida if it maintains any significant strength.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Zosia
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87137 - Fri Nov 06 2009 05:16 PM

Thanks a lot for answering. We'll wait and see.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Zosia]
      #87140 - Fri Nov 06 2009 06:37 PM

I am getting flashbacks to Wilma from 2005. She started in this general area and ended up shooting across Florida after getting caught up in a late October frontal trough. Now I know the situation is different and Wilma was a LOT stronger when it hit the Yucatan, but some parallels are showing up. I just couldn't see it going into the Gulf and moving very far west this time of the year. Looks like the intensity forecast is going to be VERY important for us here in Central Florida.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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CaneMan
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87141 - Fri Nov 06 2009 07:14 PM

looks to be going back to the NNW after a slight jog to the E

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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: CaneMan]
      #87142 - Fri Nov 06 2009 07:42 PM

Quote:

looks to be going back to the NNW after a slight jog to the E





the whole setup is way different then Wilma.We are talking Nov with shear up over 20mph and now all the 18Z runs are sending it right back down once it gets into the gulf and most of them are coming around to the idea of falling apart when it gets into the gulf.But this is a totally different animal then Wilma by far totally different setup.

If it makes it to a Med TS ill be shocked.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87143 - Fri Nov 06 2009 08:14 PM

Lamar, funny thing. I just left work and apon leaving, myself and some coworkers where discussing Ida and what was in store for us next week if it indeed Ida should affect the west coast of Florida and us in central Florida. Wilma popped up time and time again during our conversations. I know now that after reading your post that we had the same flashback that you had.............Time will tell.

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Rob Moser
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #87144 - Fri Nov 06 2009 09:20 PM

If it moves east into FLA, this is a typical late season storm. Thinking the same thing about Wilma, from here in Naples. Hopefully wind shear and weather patterns will keep this from landfall ANYWHERE in Gulf. Say "NO" to any special assessments for storm damage!

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tropicswatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Rasvar]
      #87147 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:49 AM

Watching and waiting here on the so. FL gulfcoast. Looking at the imagery over the last hour looks like it's moving more northward, thinking western Cuba could see worse conditions than the Yucatan in the next couple of days.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87159 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:18 AM

The Panhandle and western Florida looks like it will get the worst of Ida, although at the long range models suggest near Pensacola. But I think at the time Ida will look very un-tropical, so points east will get the main effect. Coastal Flooding could be nasty, especially if it decides to park out in the Gulf a bit.

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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87161 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:33 AM

this is true but if you look at the last 3-4 runs of the models each time they are trending more and more north with each run so we shall see.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87163 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:48 AM

Yeah with the trends I could see it crossing the coast near Pensacola and then re-emerging into the Gulf, still all extratropical though. It is moving further north faster than expected.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87170 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM

I am not liking the evolution of the models. I think I am going to play it safe and do a mini-kit stock for extended power outage (12 - 24 hours). Too many trees near powerlines around me. It is just too complex of a pattern for me to have confidence that it won't be gusty and nasty where I am. What I worry about most is Ida building more strength than is currently forecast while near Cuba and then getting caught up and drawn north at a much faster pace and having more energy at landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.

I'm not sure that is the likely scenario. Probably what I would call the worst-case scenario and, therefore, the scenario I plan for. I would say this storm bears heavy watching for interests from New Orleans area to the SW Florida coast with primary concern being Biloxi to Tampa, especially coastal. A faster move will prevent heavy coastal flooding. But the current NHC forecast would be very rough for the Panhandle down to Tampa Bay if it happens. I still think the worst case is a hit at marginal hurricane strength. Most likely seems to be a system with medium TS force winds transitioning to extratropical. I think the interaction with the system in the Bay of Campechee is also a fly in the ointment over the next few days. This one will test the skills of the forecasters at NHC.

--------------------
Jim


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87176 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:38 PM

12z model runs show more and more of a north gulf coast landfall i would look for the 5pm track to be even more north with a landfall in the panhandle.She has only a few more hours it seems before the hostile area begins id say a 50/50 shot a a cane cat 1 before dropping back down.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 07 2009 01:54 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Not exactly a forecast but an info request. [Re: rgd]
      #87191 - Sat Nov 07 2009 07:42 PM

I did not want to put this on the front page thread. So I will ask here. Can someone direct me to a link where I can find the initialization information that the 18Z GFS used for Ida?

--------------------
Jim


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TampaDon
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87227 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:34 AM

More recent wave height projection, pretty sure it is the GFDL model data used to construct this graphic

http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/pensacola-florida.html

TD


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request. [Re: Rasvar]
      #87247 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:05 PM

I'm starting to think that the GFS might be pretty close to correct, even though it may be just tad high on pressure; but I don't think by too much. I really am not seeing the looping back idea. I think Ida is more likely to merge with the boundary and exit in the Atlantic into a nasty noreaster' for the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Still too soon to feel that with any confidence.

--------------------
Jim


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87260 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:47 PM

Quote:

My forecast is that this site gets a whole lot more hits by the time Sunday comes round




It looks like my forecast verified, but that was an easy one

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request. [Re: Rasvar]
      #87262 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM

Quote:

I'm starting to think that the GFS might be pretty close to correct, even though it may be just tad high on pressure; but I don't think by too much. I really am not seeing the looping back idea. I think Ida is more likely to merge with the boundary and exit in the Atlantic into a nasty noreaster' for the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Still too soon to feel that with any confidence.




The GFS has had a monster Nor'easter on a couple of runs that look like Ida's energy interacting with a lot of Baroclinic energy then getting stuck off the midatlantic coast due to blocking. There were projections of 4in of liquid precip in subfreezing areas which would be a WHOLE lot of snow should it verify for WV and Central PA

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87284 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:12 PM

The looping to the east and possibly down the peninsula after landfall may be interesting, the Euro is pretty crazy with that, but most of the models are suggesting it, including the NHC's forecast.

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