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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Ida Lounge, What will happen?
      #87048 - Tue Nov 03 2009 04:36 PM

The system in the western Caribbean (97L) is needing slightly deeper convection, but otherwise seems on its way to developing. The current idea is that it will remain stationary or move very slowly at least in the initial run. It may go over Central America or stay more offshore potentially affecting the Yucatan or perhaps the Southeast.

This is where you can suggest what may happen, make a guess (with some reason behind it) or otherwise discuss
the models and possibilities with the system.

update: at 11 AM on the 4th, it was upgraded to a Tropical Depression

Update#2: at 3PM Recon showed what is very likely Ida, along with NRL updates


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MichaelA
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Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87054 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:58 AM

Looking at the satellite presentation this AM, I would not be surprised if this afternoon's recon finds a strong TD or minimal TS as long as the convection remains as strong as it seems to be. Until something definitive is determined, the model runs will be pretty unreliable. Something to watch, for sure.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87058 - Wed Nov 04 2009 11:57 AM

Long range models for TD#11 take it east or over the Yucatan into the Southwest Gulf. AKA GFS.

After that it may meander in the Gulf a bit too, great uncertainty in the forecast with a slow moving system, assuming it survives the cross over Nicaragua and Honduras.


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Marknole
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Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87059 - Wed Nov 04 2009 12:41 PM

One question, then a semi-educated guess.

I'm sure that SST's where TD #11 is currently located are supportive of development, but what about the SW GOM? Since we are looking at a system of questionable strength and organization when and if it re-emerges (early next week), there would likely be a digging trof that would shear and shred the circulation. After that, some areas would get bonus rainfall with the front that absorbs the remnants.

That being said, Tallahassee's last hurricane hit in November, (1985 - Kate), and tore this (inland) area up. Lots of big trees and branches in the State Capital...


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MichaelA
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Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87066 - Wed Nov 04 2009 04:04 PM

Well, recon found a strong TS. Ida it is!

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87071 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:34 PM

The 18Z GFDL. is moving closer to Cuba in the longer term, which is more usual for these type of storms, either they crash into Central America and die, or skirt along the coast and make it east of the Yucatan, a bit weaker. If it stays on the eastern edge of Honduras then it will pass along more flat terrain, west into Honduras gets into some fairly rugged mountains, which would tear up the storm.

The GFDL here somehow keeps it offshore, and s a bit nuts with intensity (on the high side), so I'm not sure I'd take much stock on this run.



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rgd
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87076 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:21 PM

GFDL always does that it seems with the STR of a storm why no idea but it seems to over do there ppower.

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WeatherNut
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87082 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:17 PM

My forecast is that this site gets a whole lot more hits by the time Sunday comes round

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87085 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:44 PM

I think the GFDL intensity is very believable if the models premise that it remains over water the entire time plays out. That said, its seems unlikely that it wont landfall to some degree in Nicaragua . I dont think it will be as much as forecast though

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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CoconutCandy
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Ida's Tantalizing Trek [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87086 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:17 PM

Quote:

My forecast is that this site gets a whole lot more hits by the time Sunday comes round



Hey, now there's a forecast that sounds more like a promise!

Yes, it should be a very interesting weekend should 'Ida' decide to not trek inland and fizzle out, which seems to be less likely with each model run and official advisory issued.

..


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rgd
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87087 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:54 PM

seems like that is what people want more then anything

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berrywr
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Ida & Future Trek & Wind Shear [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87090 - Thu Nov 05 2009 05:05 AM

It is premature to think that Ida will be tropical and deep enough vertically to survive into what currently is a very hostile upper environment other than immediately over the storm. That said, there has been considerable discussion as to the evolution of the old dying frontal remains in the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche into becoming a subtropical or hybrid system later this week. It is highly doubtful a pure tropical system will evolve, however a subtropical system is more likely to be the result given the environment later in the week and where upper level features are progged to be. In that event, it is possible an approach to a US landfall along the Gulf of Mexico is possible.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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TampaDon
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Re: Hurricane Ida Upgraded Just Before Landfall [Re: MikeC]
      #87101 - Thu Nov 05 2009 12:22 PM

Not sure which model they use to develop this forecast, but play out the wave height loop. Projecting 15' waves in the Central Gulf at about Tampa latitude mid next week. Wind vectors indicate a center of circulation driving the waves. I watch this site for deciding whether to fish the gulf or not and thought it would be interesting. On their hurricane page, the indicate that they use the GFDL wind table so that may be the underlying model for this projection.

http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/clearwater-florida.html

TD


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TampaDon
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87108 - Thu Nov 05 2009 02:49 PM

No wishcasting here, just posting up some interesting info. Lived in Fl all my life and know the unpredictability of these storms all too well. My post said Central GOM at about Tampa lattitude, not a Tampa landfall.

TD


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: TampaDon]
      #87112 - Thu Nov 05 2009 04:51 PM

Ida continues to need to be watched even up here, although conditions further north are much more hostile, it has a window to get stronger once it is back over water before hitting poorer conditions. It could bring more rainfall to the central or more likely eastern Gulf somewhere.

If it does make it to the Gulf, conditions will likely be very hostile for the system which may split it up vertically like so many other storms this season.

Ida is worth watching for this reason.


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87114 - Thu Nov 05 2009 05:23 PM

Definitely keeping an eye on Ida. The NHC discussion at 4:00 PM EST seems to be hedging a bit that Ida may dissipate over Central America, particularly if the circulation remains over land rather than moving more Northward back over open water. The time over land and the high shear environment just to the storm's north could well be its death.

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Michael
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2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87122 - Fri Nov 06 2009 10:46 AM

If Ida restrengthens some and makes it into the Gulf (Around Monday) and converts over to an extratropical system, it still may be somewhat nasty and cause some coastal Flooding along the gulf. Ie, a pretty nasty day along the west coast of Florida.

How much it gets torn up depends on the Cold front approaching next week. If the front slows down or stalls out before that, it would give Ida more time to maintain itself. It's just if it's a tropical storm, or extra/sub tropical at the time.

The appearance of Ida Tues-Wed will probably be elongated southwest to northwest with it likely being fairly rainy cloudy and somewhat windy in Florida then. Nothing too dangerous except maybe some light coastal flooding.

The center of Ida could still stall and get blown apart or away either, so that's why this statement is in the lounge.


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Zosia
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87124 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:07 AM

Quote:

If Ida restrengthens some and makes it into the Gulf (Around Monday) and converts over to an extratropical system, it still may be somewhat nasty and cause some coastal Flooding along the gulf. Ie, a pretty nasty day along the west coast of Florida.

How much it gets torn up depends on the Cold front approaching next week. If the front slows down or stalls out before that, it would give Ida more time to maintain itself. It's just if it's a tropical storm, or extra/sub tropical at the time.

The appearance of Ida Tues-Wed will probably be elongated southwest to northwest with it likely being fairly rainy cloudy and somewhat windy in Florida then. Nothing too dangerous except maybe some light coastal flooding.

The center of Ida could still stall and get blown apart or away either, so that's why this statement is in the lounge.





Hi!
I'm writing from Italy. In 10 days time I'll be in Miami: do I have to worry about this friendly Ida visiting Miami coast? What do you think? Will it be a danger over there, is it suggestable to avoid coming? Thanks for reading. Sofia


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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Zosia]
      #87125 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:12 AM

10 days from now, it seems likely that Ida will be ancient history. No need to change your trip. When all is said and done, for Florida, I think Ida will end up being a breezy rainmaker. At the worst, some broken tree limbs and power outages if it even holds together enough to strike land.

--------------------
Jim


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87126 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:31 AM

Tropical or extratropical, it has the potential of being dangerous and damaging. Evokes memories of the "no name" storm several years ago. It caused a lot of damage from wind and storm surge on the Florida West coast.

March, 1993

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87130 - Fri Nov 06 2009 01:00 PM

I don't think Ida is an apt comparison to the storm of the century. That one was a completely different bird with the mass of extreme cold air and the jet stream behind it. It is the only time I can remember being in the 70's in the morning and seeing snow in the afternoon without getting on a plane. Not to mention it happened in Florida.

Assuming Ida continues on to hit the coast, unless the factors push it back into the Northern Caribbean for a few days after it emerges into the Gulf(a scenario with slight possibility but not one of the likely ones), I just can not see Ida becoming a dangerous storm to Florida. Ida is going to have to camp out near Cuba to really gain some strength. I am not saying it is not possible; but I would not be changing any plans to come to Florida because of Ida.

--------------------
Jim


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Rasvar]
      #87133 - Fri Nov 06 2009 01:55 PM

I was just thinking that similar strength, on shore winds in this part of Florida are not good no matter what type of storm is causing it. Ida or its remains could be very damaging along the Gulf coast of Florida if it maintains any significant strength.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Zosia
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87137 - Fri Nov 06 2009 05:16 PM

Thanks a lot for answering. We'll wait and see.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Zosia]
      #87140 - Fri Nov 06 2009 06:37 PM

I am getting flashbacks to Wilma from 2005. She started in this general area and ended up shooting across Florida after getting caught up in a late October frontal trough. Now I know the situation is different and Wilma was a LOT stronger when it hit the Yucatan, but some parallels are showing up. I just couldn't see it going into the Gulf and moving very far west this time of the year. Looks like the intensity forecast is going to be VERY important for us here in Central Florida.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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CaneMan
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87141 - Fri Nov 06 2009 07:14 PM

looks to be going back to the NNW after a slight jog to the E

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rgd
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: CaneMan]
      #87142 - Fri Nov 06 2009 07:42 PM

Quote:

looks to be going back to the NNW after a slight jog to the E





the whole setup is way different then Wilma.We are talking Nov with shear up over 20mph and now all the 18Z runs are sending it right back down once it gets into the gulf and most of them are coming around to the idea of falling apart when it gets into the gulf.But this is a totally different animal then Wilma by far totally different setup.

If it makes it to a Med TS ill be shocked.


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87143 - Fri Nov 06 2009 08:14 PM

Lamar, funny thing. I just left work and apon leaving, myself and some coworkers where discussing Ida and what was in store for us next week if it indeed Ida should affect the west coast of Florida and us in central Florida. Wilma popped up time and time again during our conversations. I know now that after reading your post that we had the same flashback that you had.............Time will tell.

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Rob Moser
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #87144 - Fri Nov 06 2009 09:20 PM

If it moves east into FLA, this is a typical late season storm. Thinking the same thing about Wilma, from here in Naples. Hopefully wind shear and weather patterns will keep this from landfall ANYWHERE in Gulf. Say "NO" to any special assessments for storm damage!

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tropicswatch
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Rasvar]
      #87147 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:49 AM

Watching and waiting here on the so. FL gulfcoast. Looking at the imagery over the last hour looks like it's moving more northward, thinking western Cuba could see worse conditions than the Yucatan in the next couple of days.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87159 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:18 AM

The Panhandle and western Florida looks like it will get the worst of Ida, although at the long range models suggest near Pensacola. But I think at the time Ida will look very un-tropical, so points east will get the main effect. Coastal Flooding could be nasty, especially if it decides to park out in the Gulf a bit.

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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87161 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:33 AM

this is true but if you look at the last 3-4 runs of the models each time they are trending more and more north with each run so we shall see.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87163 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:48 AM

Yeah with the trends I could see it crossing the coast near Pensacola and then re-emerging into the Gulf, still all extratropical though. It is moving further north faster than expected.

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Rasvar
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87170 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM

I am not liking the evolution of the models. I think I am going to play it safe and do a mini-kit stock for extended power outage (12 - 24 hours). Too many trees near powerlines around me. It is just too complex of a pattern for me to have confidence that it won't be gusty and nasty where I am. What I worry about most is Ida building more strength than is currently forecast while near Cuba and then getting caught up and drawn north at a much faster pace and having more energy at landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.

I'm not sure that is the likely scenario. Probably what I would call the worst-case scenario and, therefore, the scenario I plan for. I would say this storm bears heavy watching for interests from New Orleans area to the SW Florida coast with primary concern being Biloxi to Tampa, especially coastal. A faster move will prevent heavy coastal flooding. But the current NHC forecast would be very rough for the Panhandle down to Tampa Bay if it happens. I still think the worst case is a hit at marginal hurricane strength. Most likely seems to be a system with medium TS force winds transitioning to extratropical. I think the interaction with the system in the Bay of Campechee is also a fly in the ointment over the next few days. This one will test the skills of the forecasters at NHC.

--------------------
Jim


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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87176 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:38 PM

12z model runs show more and more of a north gulf coast landfall i would look for the 5pm track to be even more north with a landfall in the panhandle.She has only a few more hours it seems before the hostile area begins id say a 50/50 shot a a cane cat 1 before dropping back down.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 07 2009 01:54 PM)


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Rasvar
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Not exactly a forecast but an info request. [Re: rgd]
      #87191 - Sat Nov 07 2009 07:42 PM

I did not want to put this on the front page thread. So I will ask here. Can someone direct me to a link where I can find the initialization information that the 18Z GFS used for Ida?

--------------------
Jim


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TampaDon
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87227 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:34 AM

More recent wave height projection, pretty sure it is the GFDL model data used to construct this graphic

http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/pensacola-florida.html

TD


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Rasvar
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Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request. [Re: Rasvar]
      #87247 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:05 PM

I'm starting to think that the GFS might be pretty close to correct, even though it may be just tad high on pressure; but I don't think by too much. I really am not seeing the looping back idea. I think Ida is more likely to merge with the boundary and exit in the Atlantic into a nasty noreaster' for the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Still too soon to feel that with any confidence.

--------------------
Jim


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WeatherNut
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87260 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:47 PM

Quote:

My forecast is that this site gets a whole lot more hits by the time Sunday comes round




It looks like my forecast verified, but that was an easy one

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
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Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request. [Re: Rasvar]
      #87262 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM

Quote:

I'm starting to think that the GFS might be pretty close to correct, even though it may be just tad high on pressure; but I don't think by too much. I really am not seeing the looping back idea. I think Ida is more likely to merge with the boundary and exit in the Atlantic into a nasty noreaster' for the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Still too soon to feel that with any confidence.




The GFS has had a monster Nor'easter on a couple of runs that look like Ida's energy interacting with a lot of Baroclinic energy then getting stuck off the midatlantic coast due to blocking. There were projections of 4in of liquid precip in subfreezing areas which would be a WHOLE lot of snow should it verify for WV and Central PA

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87284 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:12 PM

The looping to the east and possibly down the peninsula after landfall may be interesting, the Euro is pretty crazy with that, but most of the models are suggesting it, including the NHC's forecast.

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kenny'sinstinct
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87292 - Mon Nov 09 2009 03:25 AM

Is anyone watching? The eye, while apparently doing a wobble just almost wobbled "out of" the wind field to the west. Biggest wobble Ive ever seen. The eye is in the farthest southwest section of the wind field now lopping off the northern activity. Maybe the whole track will be moved west. Or maybe this is the start of the push to the south some models (i.e. BAMS) predicted.
(This watching the NOAA Eastern U.S. JSL Color Infrared Loop at 7:45 UTC)


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ltpat228
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: kenny'sinstinct]
      #87303 - Mon Nov 09 2009 08:59 AM

I live on the east coast of Florida and for days we've had winds gusting to 35mph coming mainly from the east.
My roomate said he just read on AOL weather that these winds are coming from Ida.
I find that hard to believe.
Is this true?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: ltpat228]
      #87304 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:03 AM

Not ida directly, it's the gradient between high pressure to the north and the low (Ida) in the Gulf. Ida itself has its own wind energy north and east of the center. It's just going to be nasty all week with the combination of the two.

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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87311 - Mon Nov 09 2009 12:08 PM

Been breezy here in the Tampa Bay area for several days. I'm relaxing today since Ida is staying well to the west of my area. The only thing to watch for now is high surf conditions tomorrow as the wind becomes more onshore and the approach of the cold front which could bring the threat of thunderstorms/squalls on the back side of Ida.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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bammer
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87312 - Mon Nov 09 2009 12:28 PM

Is there any explanation, other than "her last gasp," for the apparent convective burst ongoing? And what are the ramifications for lower Alabama? Thanks.

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Marknole
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Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: Marknole]
      #87314 - Mon Nov 09 2009 12:40 PM

Wanted to crow from my prediction back on Wednesday. I don't get too many of these right, and since we're looking at a diminishing threat, why not?:

Since we are looking at a system of questionable strength and organization when and if it re-emerges (early next week), there would likely be a digging trof that would shear and shred the circulation. After that, some areas would get bonus rainfall with the front that absorbs the remnants.

That being said, Tallahassee's last hurricane hit in November, (1985 - Kate), and tore this (inland) area up. Lots of big trees and branches in the State Capital...


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: Marknole]
      #87325 - Mon Nov 09 2009 05:00 PM

Anybody give any credence to Bastardi's future track, which brings Ida off the SE coast and then bombing into a several day event hybrid storm? I will give him credit for his Fri/Sat prediction for a Cat 2 for Ida.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87327 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:02 PM

What remains of Ida is the small area of convection that now exists near the center and while it may be a hurricane briefly prior to landfall, the bulk of Ida is onshore as shear took its toll earlier today with the lone exception of that convective burst. Ida's center may in fact be tropical, but Ida's appearance on satellite is that of a subtropical cyclone as the non-tropical low to its west, incoming shortwave will begin to merge once Ida is onshore. I haven't looked at the 12Z model run but there was earlier discussion of a low "bombing" out off the coast of GA/SC as the next shortwave dives into the upper level trough just off the SE coast as flow aloft becomes NW.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87328 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:25 PM

This is the Model Diagnostic Discussion courtesy of HPC pertaining to Ida and future evolution of its remains::

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
147 PM EST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID NOV 09/1200 UTC THRU NOV 13/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE NEW ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES

INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS THEIR FORECASTS.

Excerpt follows:

PREFERENCE: 1/2 EACH GFS/ECMWF

...HURRICANE IDA...
...INTERACTION OF IDA WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS...

THE MAJORITY OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...ALLOW THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PULL IDA IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL
THEY CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE GULF COAST BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER...
THE NAM LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST OR SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PROCESS AND IS CONSIDERED LEAST RELIABLE...WHILE ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF ALLOW THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUE...WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. REFER TO THE TPC
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST TUE/WED...

PREFERENCE: 1/2 GEFS MEAN TO 1/4 EACH GFS/CANADIAN

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE TREND IN THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THE
LAST TWO DAYS TO DELAY A COMPLICATED PHASING PROCESS OF THIS
TROUGH WITH A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNTIL BOTH TROUGHS REACH THE EAST COAST. THE NAM AND MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE FIRST TO DISPLAY A LESS-PHASED OR UNPHASED
SOLUTION 1-2 DAYS AGO...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SLOWLY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. THE NEW NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NO
PHASING...BUT IS MOSTLY DUE TO ITS SLOW OUTLIER SOLUTION IN THE
GULF...SO THE NAM CAN NOT PHASE. MEANWHILE THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD SLOWER AND WEAKER PHASING...RESULTING IN A LESS PRONOUNCED
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST...WITH REASONABLY GOOD SUPPORT
PROVIDED FROM THE CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN...
ALBEIT WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF/UKMET
NOW REMAIN THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING
CONSIDERABLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SC COAST BY THU.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PRIOR REASONING THAT THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
PATTERN SUPPORT A SUPPRESSED AND PROGRESSIVE SURFACE LOW
EVOLUTION...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GEFS MEAN.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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