Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Remnant TD9 Moves into the Yucatan. TS Warnings Have Been Dropped.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 112 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3287 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen
      #87053 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:07 AM

3:00PM EST Update 6 November 2009
Ida is now offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras as a Tropical Depression. It has maintained its structure and has a window of opportunity to slowly restrengthen. If/when it approaches the Gulf conditions likely will be hostile for development and it may weaken once again.

7:00AM EST Update 6 November 2009
Ida still remains a tropical depression but may exit land sooner than anticipated, and it now looks more likely that it will regain some strength in the short term once it does. However, as it approaches the gulf the shear and conditions around it will be very hostile. There is a chance it could turn subtropical or extratropical in the Gulf, and some of the rainfall may wind up to the east even if the system itself is no longer tropical.

None of this is certian however, so it should be watched.


7:00PM EST Update 5 November 2009
Ida has greatly weakened over Nicaragua and may not survive the trek over the system before moving more northward. If the general structure of the system survives the cross it has another shot at regaining some strength, although hurricane strength is not likely at all, it will encounter more hostile conditions in the Gulf, which would make any second eventual landfall likely to be a rain event.

Older Updates
Ida is now a Hurricane and is about to make landfall in Nicaragua, currently it is moving very slowly. This will bring very heavy flooding rains, winds, and mudslides to the area as it is expected to perhaps be over land up to 3 days before exiting back into the Caribbean to the north as a much weaker system. It could start drifting more northward at this point.

This is only the 3rd hurricane this year, and looks to be the only landfalling hurricane of the season.



6:00PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Hurricane watches were issued for Nicaragua as Ida continues to maintain organization, winds have increased to 65mph, and the storm has a good window to reach hurricane strength. Bringing some winds and a lot of rain to Nicaragua. It has the potential to be a dangerous situation (Rain mostly, aggravated by the winds) there.

Late visible satellite imagery suggests it may be forming a visible eye. The atmospheric set up around makes it more likely become a hurricane before landfall. Those in that area of Nicaragua may want to prepare for a category 1 or 2 hurricane, and hope for less.



There is still much question about where the system will go after that. If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west. Right now the over Nicaragua out Honduras to the eastern side of the Yucatan has become slightly more likely. Beyond that too early to tell.

IT will weaken quite a bit overland, but not as much if it stays to the east of the mountains. It may be over land for as long as 3 days in Nicaragua and Honduras, so rainfall and flooding, along with mudslides will be an issue.

If it remains on the NHC track, those in the Gulf will want to be watching next week.

Add a comment to discuss, or make a prediction (models or otherwise on the Ida Lounge.

4:10PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Ida now has a closed Eyewall based on Recon reports, it may be strengthening to a hurricane.

4PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Ida has formed from TD#11 in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

The system has with 60MPH winds, Headed toward Nicaragua.

3:30PM Update
Based on Recon reports and NRL best track, it appears TD#11 has become Tropical Storm Ida. Advisories on Ida likely to begin at 5PM.

11:30AM Update
The system in the southwest Caribbean sea has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #11.

The current forecast track takes it over Nicaragua and Honduras, and then back into the open water. It is forecast to recover as a system once it crosses over, and then may approach the Yucatan. After this is too soon to tell, really depends if it stays east of the Yucatan much or not. This will be well worth watching this week into next.

Recon aircraft is now on the way to the system.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says it could become Tropical Storm Ida by tomorrow. The system is moving slowly and will near the coastline and probably make landfall near Bluefields Evening. The main threat for Central America now is the very heavy rainfall which could be dangerous for Nicaragua and Honduras because of the slow movement .


The slow moving system will have influences from a wave in the Eastern Pacific, and the overall lack of steering currents in that part of the Caribbean. Also involved will be the low in the Bay of Campeche which too has a small chance of forming, which may give it enough of a pull north to make it, of course the system in the pacific may nudge it more westward too, causing rainfall, but keeping the system from strengthening.

Based on appearance this morning it's very likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm when recon aircraft gets there.

Most likely it may move further west and not redevelop much. (Low confidence, however. The setup around it also favors intensification, and if it does--and that is the key--than it would move over to being more northward and stronger)

More to come soon...

Original Update
The system in the Southwestern Caribbean (97L) is looking much better this morning and now has a better than 50% chance for development as most conditions are favorable in the area.

Track wise most likely it will stay close to Central America and may even clip Honduras and then approach the Yucatan, all very slowly which means it could change or be off quite a bit.



For now, most likely more rains for Central America and perhaps a late season storm.

Reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30th.

The area in the Bay of Campeche has much more hostile conditions and looks like if anything would develop there it would take a while.


Ida Storm Spotlight
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Ida Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormPulse Map


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 63
Re: Western Caribbean System Likely to Develop [Re: MikeC]
      #87055 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:01 AM

97L certainly appears healthier this morning. It finally has a nice core with deep convection. It has tracked northwestward over the last day and most models keep it moving nw right into Nicaragua, so this may well be another very short-lived tropical storm. Maybe there will still be something left when it emerges into the nw Caribbean.

Update: TD11 just named. It is forecast to be over land from Thursday evening to Sunday morning. NHC still has it reacquiring TS status once back over water.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 11 [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #87056 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:41 AM

Based on current satellite presentation I wouldn't be surprised to see TD 11 bumped to Tropical Storm IDA status shortly after Recon arrives.

RECON is now airborne and should arrive around 20Z or a little over 4 hours from now.

Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 04 2009 04:11 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87057 - Wed Nov 04 2009 11:14 AM

Like any November storm it comes with it's inherent many different possibilities... so many options and well if it does get as far north as the NHC projects it could (middle/eastern part of the cone) then the water is very hot and it's very hot in Cuba and South Florida right now... and something about the mid level high that makes me think it is suddenly eroding (watching water vapor loop) so if this does not rain itself out over Central America than other parts of America may have to watch it closely down the line.

Because..any northward movement would bend to the right...

IF... it doesn't rain itself out in Central America..

Curious which models are most reliable later in the season in November when we are in a transitional period.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? [Re: LoisCane]
      #87060 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:08 PM

Just as most of us had surmised, the well-defined disturbance we've all been watching over the past day or so has organized sufficiently overnight and cyclogenesis has indeed occurred.

The bursting convection I was anticipating during last nights' convective max cycle did occur, but was of a more cycling nature, with strong cells coming and going after a few hours. But enough of them continuously, apparently, near the pronounced LLC center to form the CDO feature I had speculated about and warmed the mid-levels sufficiently to drop the central pressure a few millibars, to 1006 (estimated), and the windfield apparently responded by increasing to 30 kts.

Of course the recon mission, just now entering the area, will provide us a much better understanding of Elevens' synoptic structure and will be sampling all the requisite parameters, thus allowing the guidance models to more accurately forecast track and intensity. Based on the steadily improving satellite presentation, much speculation exists that the cyclone may already have acquired tropical storm intensity.



The convection was much better organized last night, compared to the previous night, with pronounced banding features developing at some distance north of the nascent system and, most importantly, consistantly deep enough near the LLC to spin up the CDO, and allowing the still-not-fully-understood process of cyclogenesis to transpire.

Thus, Tropical Depression 'Eleven' has made it into the record books as that semi-rare late-season Southwestern-Caribbean storm with an uncertain future that remains to be seen.

The depression has plenty of fuel to draw upon in the near term, as the waters here are very warm and possess a great deal of 'oceanic heat content', and the upper level winds remain surprisingly conducive for the time being.

And, should the fledgling cyclone manage to negotiate it's several days over land without loosing too much organization and is able to maintain at least a well-developed mid-level circulation, then it's quite possible it could emerge from off the Northern Coast of Honduras and re-develop tropical storm intensity.

But that's a tall order, and not all models (so far) are that bullish with their outlook. Any prolonged terrestrial encounter under weak steering currents could turn TD-11 into a torrential rainmaker for parts of Central America, while decreasing the likelihood that it will emerge intact enough to regenerate itself and pose a potential threat to the Gulf.

So many questions ... so many possibilities ... it certainly will be interesting to see how this all plays out!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 63
Re: Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87061 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:16 PM

TD11 has become Ida per the recon data. They have found a pressure in the 998-1001 mb range and surface wind in the 45-50 mph range. However, Ida doesn't have much time remaining over water.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87062 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:33 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 20:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 19:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°57'N 82°37'W (11.95N 82.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 294 miles (472 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 670m (2,198ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 48kts (From the ENE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 775m (2,543ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:45:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:54:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

courtesy~ tropicalatlantic.com

bold emphasis by ~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 04 2009 03:46 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87063 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:39 PM

18Z data has Tropical Storm Ida...

Storm Location
Date: Nov. 4, 2009 18Z
Coordinates: 11.8N 82.3W
Wind Speed: 45 knots
MSLP: 998 mb


recon looks to have hit two centers or a broad center.. with above vortex data on first pass.. they made two passes and are on the east side of system

***note.. just made a measured it... not a broad center.. may a 20-30 mile wide center***

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Nov 04 2009 03:43 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87064 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:42 PM

Quote:


L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)





Not every day you see an eye in a relatively weak tropical storm. I suspect we're going to see some pretty rapid intensification with this storm. Which will really throw any model runs off.

The storm isn't really moving much either, so even though it's relatively close to land, it's not going to be severely impacted by the proximity for a while.

I think Ida will be a hurricane. And sooner than people would have expected.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: TD 11 [Re: Bloodstar]
      #87065 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:52 PM

Recon's suggesting around 45 knot winds (50mph), proximity will keep it (mostly) in check, but it still has a lot going for it to allow it to develop more. Best setup I've seen this year in the Atlantic outside of the two Major canes.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87067 - Wed Nov 04 2009 04:07 PM

Ida doesn't have much time to strengthen left, and it's warming a bit, so it's probably going in as is to Nicaragua, bringing flooding rains the whole time. The question now is will it emerge back into the Caribbean intact enough redevelop into much, or will it drift more westward and die altogether. If it emerges back into the Caribbean relatively intact then those in the Gulf will need to watch it very closely. Right now I'm leaning toward west and the system getting torn apart.

Update:
Recon found a closed eye, so it may have hit a sweet spot for semi-rapid intensification, it may well reach Nicaragua as a hurricane after all.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87068 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:03 PM

well we shall see what happends

Edited by rgd (Wed Nov 04 2009 06:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: TD 11 [Re: rgd]
      #87069 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:15 PM

Late visible satellite imagery suggests it may be forming a visible eye. The atmospheric set up around makes it more likely become a hurricane before landfall. Those in that area of Nicaragua may want to prepare for a category 1 or 2 hurricane, and hope for less. The big story there will probably be the heavy rainfall.

There is still much question about where the system will go after that. If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west. Right now the over Nicaragua out Honduras to the eastern side of the Yucatan has become slightly more likely. Beyond that too early to tell. If it remains on the NHC track, those in the Gulf will want to be watching next week.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87070 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:28 PM

if we assume it makes it back.Systems that spend a lot of time over land when they come back never get there act together again.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JFV25
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Re: TD 11 [Re: rgd]
      #87072 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:42 PM

Please, and remember, when it comes to tropical meteorology, it is always best to view the current situation in an objective mentality, instead of in an subjective. YOU, may think that her fatal fate ahs been sealed; however, the rest of us on here, do not quite yet agree with you're sentiment in that regard, quite yet, Mike. I came here looking unfavored and unbaised data, can we keep it that way. Look, alright, she may fizzle; however, are the constant reminders REALLY necessary. This has been a deplorably dismel cane season, although I do not wish death nor destruction to be bethowed upon anyone because of these creatures, at the same time, I welcome this late-season excitement, have you've caught my drift in this regard, Mike? I would hope so. Lastly, let's hope 2010 really brings us all something to really talk about, we'll see, though. Cheers,
!
You may choose only one
1
2


Votes accepted from (Wed Nov 04 2009 06:41 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: TD 11 [Re: JFV25]
      #87073 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:46 PM

Quote:

Please, and remember, when it comes to tropical meteorology, it is always best to view the current situation in an objective mentality, instead of in an subjective. YOU, may think that her fatal fate ahs been sealed; however, the rest of us on here, do not quite yet agree with you're sentiment in that regard, quite yet, Mike. I came here looking unfavored and unbaised data, can we keep it that way. Look, alright, she may fizzle; however, are the constant reminders REALLY necessary. This has been a deplorably dismel cane season, although I do not wish death nor destruction to be bethowed upon anyone because of these creatures, at the same time, I welcome this late-season excitement, have you've caught my drift in this regard, Mike? I would hope so. Lastly, let's hope 2010 really brings us all something to really talk about, we'll see, though. Cheers,




No I guess I don't agree. There is a hurricane watch for Nicaragua, and a strengthening Tropical Storm. It is currently bringing torrential rainfall and will likely impact it quite heavily. Those are the facts.

If it fizzles out over there it will be with a ton of flooding there. The atmosphere around the system is very conductive for development, and this is the area you look for development in this part of the season. It will likely not impact the US heavily if at all, but it is worth watching, especially now that it is out of mind of a lot of folks.

The goal is hurricanes without the hype. That does not mean downplaying real threats, or down casting everything. It just means analyzing the situation, real threats are thankfully rare, and in this season even moreso. I'm erring toward better accuracy. It is important to look from the angles of what will cause a system to develop, move to a place, as well as looking for reasons it will not develop or won't go somewhere. Weighing each to determine what is most likely. Most likely may still be 50.0001% chance, like the earlier statement today was (About it fizzling), and it didn't take much for it to go the other way too. (RI of the system was unexpected, but not out of the question given the environment)

And I always hope 2010 is slower than even this one.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: TD 11 - wv [Re: MikeC]
      #87074 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:58 PM

this has been a dramatic, steady intensification going on all day

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

as said before here.. this system really does need to be watched... especially if it skims the coast and moves into the yucatan channel

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87075 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:09 PM

Yes it is something to look at in a season with nothing around but to wish something would get going and wish it would come into the gulf and wish it would help pass time away i do not agree.I am not saying anyone is wish casting but i hope it does fizzle i say hope not saying it will but lets please don't hope or wish that it gets its act together and then threaten the gulf coast just for sake to have excitement

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Ida's Developmental Fast Track [Re: LoisCane]
      #87077 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:36 PM

It's quite amazing, really. A scant 24 hours ago, I was speculating that then 'Invest 97L' might be on a sort of 'fast-track' for development into a tropical depression, or perhaps even a named storm, within a day or so. But even I didn't anticipate the striking developments that have transpired overnight and throughout the day.

First, to have a significant tropical storm already waiting for the recon mission to arrive, and then for recon to find an already-developing ragged-type 30-mile-wide 'eye structure' speaks volumes for the still-not-well-understood process of tropical cyclogenesis and the dynamical considerations promoting and leading to rapid intensification. There is still much challenging research work to be done here in this regard, and is personally for me one of the most interesting and fascinating aspects of the tropical cyclone life cycle.

From this recent animated visible satellite loop, taken just before sunset, shows a still steadily strengthening tropical storm with an expanding tropical storm force windfield and convective banding features becoming more pronounced in the NE Semi-Circle.

And if you look *closely*, you may notice a sort of 'dimple' (just below 12N), near the supposed center of circulation, just below several large thunderstorms, which to my partially trained eyes looks to be the harbinger of an eye, though as yet still cloud-filled.



And from looking back at passive microwave imaging from the last 12 hours or so, one can also see a nascent eye and eyewall feature developing in the inner core convection as early as 12 hours ago, presumably co-located with the ongoing sucessive bursts of very deep convection as displayed in the infrared and water vapor animated loops.

Note that these 2 images were taken just over 12 hours apart, at 7am and 7pm EST and note, as well, just how much the system *has* moved in that time. The inner core convection now appears closer to the coastline.



As Bloodstar was commenting earlier ...

Quote:

Not every day you see an eye in a relatively weak tropical storm. I suspect we're going to see some pretty rapid intensification with this storm. Which will really throw any model runs off.

The storm isn't really moving much either, so even though it's relatively close to land, it's not going to be severely impacted by the proximity for a while.

I think Ida will be a hurricane. And sooner than people would have expected.



I would certainly have to go along with that rational, although as just mentioned, it is noticeably closer to Nicaragua than 12 hours ago.

On the other hand, as Mike notes ...

Quote:

If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west.



Yes it's true that, all other things considered equal, a deep and well-developed storm will tend to display more of a northward component than a shallower system which tends to be steered more westerly by the low-level easterly flow it finds itself in. Unless, of course, it's being driven by a deep layer ridge to it's north, as was the case with Major Hurricane 'Felix' a few years ago, for example, which was driven due west across the entire Caribbean Sea.

But a deep layer ridge to the north is nowhere to be found in this case, and what weak steering currents that do exist would tend to impart more of a northerly-ish track, should the storm continue it's current explosive intensification phase a deepen even further, resulting a larger and more substantial tropical storm force windfield.

In all likelihood, it seem that an oblique landfall to the coastline as a hurricane may well occur, but at just what angle, how far up on the coastline, and the degree of northerly component it's acquired by that time, and of course it's forward speed under still weak steering currents, will be the determining factors as to the length and duration 'Ida' will be over Nicaragua/Honduras before emerging into open waters to it's north.

In this recent color-enhanced IR image from the University of Hawaii's Weather Server, you can certainly notice the huge blowup of very deep, bursting convection over the LLC, resulting in an impressive CDO, but also quite apparent is the proximity of the storm to the coastline.



6 Hour Animated Color Enhanced IR Loop from the University of Hawaii Weather Server

Again, with the hearlding of tonights' convective max cycle, it should be very interesting to see if 'Ida' continues to rapidly intensify, and if so, just how much this actually 'turns' the storm to the north.

Even 10 or 15 degree variance to the right of it's currently forecast track would mean much less time the LLC will be over land, and more significantly, also means that the bulk of the storms' circulation will remain over very warm water, which would help the storm to retain it's organization better and likely result in a stronger system as it emerges off the coast of Honduras in a few days time.


Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Nov 04 2009 09:53 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Ida's Developmental Fast Track [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87078 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:54 PM

If you look at the IR unenhanced loop you can see the center before the huge convective burst just to the NNW covered it in the last hour. Would a burst that large tend to pull the center more northward? I'm just not seeing this as far west as the NHC track has it inland.

EDIT/Update: All of the models have moved to the right (be good if I knew my right from left...duh...)with the GFDL staying over water

Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Nov 04 2009 08:06 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 24940

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center