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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen
      #87053 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:07 AM

3:00PM EST Update 6 November 2009
Ida is now offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras as a Tropical Depression. It has maintained its structure and has a window of opportunity to slowly restrengthen. If/when it approaches the Gulf conditions likely will be hostile for development and it may weaken once again.

7:00AM EST Update 6 November 2009
Ida still remains a tropical depression but may exit land sooner than anticipated, and it now looks more likely that it will regain some strength in the short term once it does. However, as it approaches the gulf the shear and conditions around it will be very hostile. There is a chance it could turn subtropical or extratropical in the Gulf, and some of the rainfall may wind up to the east even if the system itself is no longer tropical.

None of this is certian however, so it should be watched.


7:00PM EST Update 5 November 2009
Ida has greatly weakened over Nicaragua and may not survive the trek over the system before moving more northward. If the general structure of the system survives the cross it has another shot at regaining some strength, although hurricane strength is not likely at all, it will encounter more hostile conditions in the Gulf, which would make any second eventual landfall likely to be a rain event.

Older Updates
Ida is now a Hurricane and is about to make landfall in Nicaragua, currently it is moving very slowly. This will bring very heavy flooding rains, winds, and mudslides to the area as it is expected to perhaps be over land up to 3 days before exiting back into the Caribbean to the north as a much weaker system. It could start drifting more northward at this point.

This is only the 3rd hurricane this year, and looks to be the only landfalling hurricane of the season.



6:00PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Hurricane watches were issued for Nicaragua as Ida continues to maintain organization, winds have increased to 65mph, and the storm has a good window to reach hurricane strength. Bringing some winds and a lot of rain to Nicaragua. It has the potential to be a dangerous situation (Rain mostly, aggravated by the winds) there.

Late visible satellite imagery suggests it may be forming a visible eye. The atmospheric set up around makes it more likely become a hurricane before landfall. Those in that area of Nicaragua may want to prepare for a category 1 or 2 hurricane, and hope for less.



There is still much question about where the system will go after that. If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west. Right now the over Nicaragua out Honduras to the eastern side of the Yucatan has become slightly more likely. Beyond that too early to tell.

IT will weaken quite a bit overland, but not as much if it stays to the east of the mountains. It may be over land for as long as 3 days in Nicaragua and Honduras, so rainfall and flooding, along with mudslides will be an issue.

If it remains on the NHC track, those in the Gulf will want to be watching next week.

Add a comment to discuss, or make a prediction (models or otherwise on the Ida Lounge.

4:10PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Ida now has a closed Eyewall based on Recon reports, it may be strengthening to a hurricane.

4PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Ida has formed from TD#11 in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

The system has with 60MPH winds, Headed toward Nicaragua.

3:30PM Update
Based on Recon reports and NRL best track, it appears TD#11 has become Tropical Storm Ida. Advisories on Ida likely to begin at 5PM.

11:30AM Update
The system in the southwest Caribbean sea has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #11.

The current forecast track takes it over Nicaragua and Honduras, and then back into the open water. It is forecast to recover as a system once it crosses over, and then may approach the Yucatan. After this is too soon to tell, really depends if it stays east of the Yucatan much or not. This will be well worth watching this week into next.

Recon aircraft is now on the way to the system.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says it could become Tropical Storm Ida by tomorrow. The system is moving slowly and will near the coastline and probably make landfall near Bluefields Evening. The main threat for Central America now is the very heavy rainfall which could be dangerous for Nicaragua and Honduras because of the slow movement .


The slow moving system will have influences from a wave in the Eastern Pacific, and the overall lack of steering currents in that part of the Caribbean. Also involved will be the low in the Bay of Campeche which too has a small chance of forming, which may give it enough of a pull north to make it, of course the system in the pacific may nudge it more westward too, causing rainfall, but keeping the system from strengthening.

Based on appearance this morning it's very likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm when recon aircraft gets there.

Most likely it may move further west and not redevelop much. (Low confidence, however. The setup around it also favors intensification, and if it does--and that is the key--than it would move over to being more northward and stronger)

More to come soon...

Original Update
The system in the Southwestern Caribbean (97L) is looking much better this morning and now has a better than 50% chance for development as most conditions are favorable in the area.

Track wise most likely it will stay close to Central America and may even clip Honduras and then approach the Yucatan, all very slowly which means it could change or be off quite a bit.



For now, most likely more rains for Central America and perhaps a late season storm.

Reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30th.

The area in the Bay of Campeche has much more hostile conditions and looks like if anything would develop there it would take a while.


Ida Storm Spotlight
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Ida Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormPulse Map


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Western Caribbean System Likely to Develop [Re: MikeC]
      #87055 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:01 AM

97L certainly appears healthier this morning. It finally has a nice core with deep convection. It has tracked northwestward over the last day and most models keep it moving nw right into Nicaragua, so this may well be another very short-lived tropical storm. Maybe there will still be something left when it emerges into the nw Caribbean.

Update: TD11 just named. It is forecast to be over land from Thursday evening to Sunday morning. NHC still has it reacquiring TS status once back over water.


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danielwAdministrator
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TD 11 [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #87056 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:41 AM

Based on current satellite presentation I wouldn't be surprised to see TD 11 bumped to Tropical Storm IDA status shortly after Recon arrives.

RECON is now airborne and should arrive around 20Z or a little over 4 hours from now.

Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 04 2009 04:11 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87057 - Wed Nov 04 2009 11:14 AM

Like any November storm it comes with it's inherent many different possibilities... so many options and well if it does get as far north as the NHC projects it could (middle/eastern part of the cone) then the water is very hot and it's very hot in Cuba and South Florida right now... and something about the mid level high that makes me think it is suddenly eroding (watching water vapor loop) so if this does not rain itself out over Central America than other parts of America may have to watch it closely down the line.

Because..any northward movement would bend to the right...

IF... it doesn't rain itself out in Central America..

Curious which models are most reliable later in the season in November when we are in a transitional period.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

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CoconutCandy
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Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? [Re: LoisCane]
      #87060 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:08 PM

Just as most of us had surmised, the well-defined disturbance we've all been watching over the past day or so has organized sufficiently overnight and cyclogenesis has indeed occurred.

The bursting convection I was anticipating during last nights' convective max cycle did occur, but was of a more cycling nature, with strong cells coming and going after a few hours. But enough of them continuously, apparently, near the pronounced LLC center to form the CDO feature I had speculated about and warmed the mid-levels sufficiently to drop the central pressure a few millibars, to 1006 (estimated), and the windfield apparently responded by increasing to 30 kts.

Of course the recon mission, just now entering the area, will provide us a much better understanding of Elevens' synoptic structure and will be sampling all the requisite parameters, thus allowing the guidance models to more accurately forecast track and intensity. Based on the steadily improving satellite presentation, much speculation exists that the cyclone may already have acquired tropical storm intensity.



The convection was much better organized last night, compared to the previous night, with pronounced banding features developing at some distance north of the nascent system and, most importantly, consistantly deep enough near the LLC to spin up the CDO, and allowing the still-not-fully-understood process of cyclogenesis to transpire.

Thus, Tropical Depression 'Eleven' has made it into the record books as that semi-rare late-season Southwestern-Caribbean storm with an uncertain future that remains to be seen.

The depression has plenty of fuel to draw upon in the near term, as the waters here are very warm and possess a great deal of 'oceanic heat content', and the upper level winds remain surprisingly conducive for the time being.

And, should the fledgling cyclone manage to negotiate it's several days over land without loosing too much organization and is able to maintain at least a well-developed mid-level circulation, then it's quite possible it could emerge from off the Northern Coast of Honduras and re-develop tropical storm intensity.

But that's a tall order, and not all models (so far) are that bullish with their outlook. Any prolonged terrestrial encounter under weak steering currents could turn TD-11 into a torrential rainmaker for parts of Central America, while decreasing the likelihood that it will emerge intact enough to regenerate itself and pose a potential threat to the Gulf.

So many questions ... so many possibilities ... it certainly will be interesting to see how this all plays out!


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87061 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:16 PM

TD11 has become Ida per the recon data. They have found a pressure in the 998-1001 mb range and surface wind in the 45-50 mph range. However, Ida doesn't have much time remaining over water.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87062 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:33 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 20:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 19:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°57'N 82°37'W (11.95N 82.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 294 miles (472 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 670m (2,198ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 48kts (From the ENE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 775m (2,543ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:45:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:54:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

courtesy~ tropicalatlantic.com

bold emphasis by ~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 04 2009 03:46 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87063 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:39 PM

18Z data has Tropical Storm Ida...

Storm Location
Date: Nov. 4, 2009 18Z
Coordinates: 11.8N 82.3W
Wind Speed: 45 knots
MSLP: 998 mb


recon looks to have hit two centers or a broad center.. with above vortex data on first pass.. they made two passes and are on the east side of system

***note.. just made a measured it... not a broad center.. may a 20-30 mile wide center***

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Nov 04 2009 03:43 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: TD 11 [Re: danielw]
      #87064 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:42 PM

Quote:


L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)





Not every day you see an eye in a relatively weak tropical storm. I suspect we're going to see some pretty rapid intensification with this storm. Which will really throw any model runs off.

The storm isn't really moving much either, so even though it's relatively close to land, it's not going to be severely impacted by the proximity for a while.

I think Ida will be a hurricane. And sooner than people would have expected.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 11 [Re: Bloodstar]
      #87065 - Wed Nov 04 2009 03:52 PM

Recon's suggesting around 45 knot winds (50mph), proximity will keep it (mostly) in check, but it still has a lot going for it to allow it to develop more. Best setup I've seen this year in the Atlantic outside of the two Major canes.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87067 - Wed Nov 04 2009 04:07 PM

Ida doesn't have much time to strengthen left, and it's warming a bit, so it's probably going in as is to Nicaragua, bringing flooding rains the whole time. The question now is will it emerge back into the Caribbean intact enough redevelop into much, or will it drift more westward and die altogether. If it emerges back into the Caribbean relatively intact then those in the Gulf will need to watch it very closely. Right now I'm leaning toward west and the system getting torn apart.

Update:
Recon found a closed eye, so it may have hit a sweet spot for semi-rapid intensification, it may well reach Nicaragua as a hurricane after all.


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rgd
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Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87068 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:03 PM

well we shall see what happends

Edited by rgd (Wed Nov 04 2009 06:04 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 11 [Re: rgd]
      #87069 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:15 PM

Late visible satellite imagery suggests it may be forming a visible eye. The atmospheric set up around makes it more likely become a hurricane before landfall. Those in that area of Nicaragua may want to prepare for a category 1 or 2 hurricane, and hope for less. The big story there will probably be the heavy rainfall.

There is still much question about where the system will go after that. If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west. Right now the over Nicaragua out Honduras to the eastern side of the Yucatan has become slightly more likely. Beyond that too early to tell. If it remains on the NHC track, those in the Gulf will want to be watching next week.


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rgd
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Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87070 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:28 PM

if we assume it makes it back.Systems that spend a lot of time over land when they come back never get there act together again.

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JFV25
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Re: TD 11 [Re: rgd]
      #87072 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:42 PM

Please, and remember, when it comes to tropical meteorology, it is always best to view the current situation in an objective mentality, instead of in an subjective. YOU, may think that her fatal fate ahs been sealed; however, the rest of us on here, do not quite yet agree with you're sentiment in that regard, quite yet, Mike. I came here looking unfavored and unbaised data, can we keep it that way. Look, alright, she may fizzle; however, are the constant reminders REALLY necessary. This has been a deplorably dismel cane season, although I do not wish death nor destruction to be bethowed upon anyone because of these creatures, at the same time, I welcome this late-season excitement, have you've caught my drift in this regard, Mike? I would hope so. Lastly, let's hope 2010 really brings us all something to really talk about, we'll see, though. Cheers,
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 11 [Re: JFV25]
      #87073 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:46 PM

Quote:

Please, and remember, when it comes to tropical meteorology, it is always best to view the current situation in an objective mentality, instead of in an subjective. YOU, may think that her fatal fate ahs been sealed; however, the rest of us on here, do not quite yet agree with you're sentiment in that regard, quite yet, Mike. I came here looking unfavored and unbaised data, can we keep it that way. Look, alright, she may fizzle; however, are the constant reminders REALLY necessary. This has been a deplorably dismel cane season, although I do not wish death nor destruction to be bethowed upon anyone because of these creatures, at the same time, I welcome this late-season excitement, have you've caught my drift in this regard, Mike? I would hope so. Lastly, let's hope 2010 really brings us all something to really talk about, we'll see, though. Cheers,




No I guess I don't agree. There is a hurricane watch for Nicaragua, and a strengthening Tropical Storm. It is currently bringing torrential rainfall and will likely impact it quite heavily. Those are the facts.

If it fizzles out over there it will be with a ton of flooding there. The atmosphere around the system is very conductive for development, and this is the area you look for development in this part of the season. It will likely not impact the US heavily if at all, but it is worth watching, especially now that it is out of mind of a lot of folks.

The goal is hurricanes without the hype. That does not mean downplaying real threats, or down casting everything. It just means analyzing the situation, real threats are thankfully rare, and in this season even moreso. I'm erring toward better accuracy. It is important to look from the angles of what will cause a system to develop, move to a place, as well as looking for reasons it will not develop or won't go somewhere. Weighing each to determine what is most likely. Most likely may still be 50.0001% chance, like the earlier statement today was (About it fizzling), and it didn't take much for it to go the other way too. (RI of the system was unexpected, but not out of the question given the environment)

And I always hope 2010 is slower than even this one.


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LoisCane
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Re: TD 11 - wv [Re: MikeC]
      #87074 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:58 PM

this has been a dramatic, steady intensification going on all day

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

as said before here.. this system really does need to be watched... especially if it skims the coast and moves into the yucatan channel

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rgd
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Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87075 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:09 PM

Yes it is something to look at in a season with nothing around but to wish something would get going and wish it would come into the gulf and wish it would help pass time away i do not agree.I am not saying anyone is wish casting but i hope it does fizzle i say hope not saying it will but lets please don't hope or wish that it gets its act together and then threaten the gulf coast just for sake to have excitement

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CoconutCandy
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Ida's Developmental Fast Track [Re: LoisCane]
      #87077 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:36 PM

It's quite amazing, really. A scant 24 hours ago, I was speculating that then 'Invest 97L' might be on a sort of 'fast-track' for development into a tropical depression, or perhaps even a named storm, within a day or so. But even I didn't anticipate the striking developments that have transpired overnight and throughout the day.

First, to have a significant tropical storm already waiting for the recon mission to arrive, and then for recon to find an already-developing ragged-type 30-mile-wide 'eye structure' speaks volumes for the still-not-well-understood process of tropical cyclogenesis and the dynamical considerations promoting and leading to rapid intensification. There is still much challenging research work to be done here in this regard, and is personally for me one of the most interesting and fascinating aspects of the tropical cyclone life cycle.

From this recent animated visible satellite loop, taken just before sunset, shows a still steadily strengthening tropical storm with an expanding tropical storm force windfield and convective banding features becoming more pronounced in the NE Semi-Circle.

And if you look *closely*, you may notice a sort of 'dimple' (just below 12N), near the supposed center of circulation, just below several large thunderstorms, which to my partially trained eyes looks to be the harbinger of an eye, though as yet still cloud-filled.



And from looking back at passive microwave imaging from the last 12 hours or so, one can also see a nascent eye and eyewall feature developing in the inner core convection as early as 12 hours ago, presumably co-located with the ongoing sucessive bursts of very deep convection as displayed in the infrared and water vapor animated loops.

Note that these 2 images were taken just over 12 hours apart, at 7am and 7pm EST and note, as well, just how much the system *has* moved in that time. The inner core convection now appears closer to the coastline.



As Bloodstar was commenting earlier ...

Quote:

Not every day you see an eye in a relatively weak tropical storm. I suspect we're going to see some pretty rapid intensification with this storm. Which will really throw any model runs off.

The storm isn't really moving much either, so even though it's relatively close to land, it's not going to be severely impacted by the proximity for a while.

I think Ida will be a hurricane. And sooner than people would have expected.



I would certainly have to go along with that rational, although as just mentioned, it is noticeably closer to Nicaragua than 12 hours ago.

On the other hand, as Mike notes ...

Quote:

If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west.



Yes it's true that, all other things considered equal, a deep and well-developed storm will tend to display more of a northward component than a shallower system which tends to be steered more westerly by the low-level easterly flow it finds itself in. Unless, of course, it's being driven by a deep layer ridge to it's north, as was the case with Major Hurricane 'Felix' a few years ago, for example, which was driven due west across the entire Caribbean Sea.

But a deep layer ridge to the north is nowhere to be found in this case, and what weak steering currents that do exist would tend to impart more of a northerly-ish track, should the storm continue it's current explosive intensification phase a deepen even further, resulting a larger and more substantial tropical storm force windfield.

In all likelihood, it seem that an oblique landfall to the coastline as a hurricane may well occur, but at just what angle, how far up on the coastline, and the degree of northerly component it's acquired by that time, and of course it's forward speed under still weak steering currents, will be the determining factors as to the length and duration 'Ida' will be over Nicaragua/Honduras before emerging into open waters to it's north.

In this recent color-enhanced IR image from the University of Hawaii's Weather Server, you can certainly notice the huge blowup of very deep, bursting convection over the LLC, resulting in an impressive CDO, but also quite apparent is the proximity of the storm to the coastline.



6 Hour Animated Color Enhanced IR Loop from the University of Hawaii Weather Server

Again, with the hearlding of tonights' convective max cycle, it should be very interesting to see if 'Ida' continues to rapidly intensify, and if so, just how much this actually 'turns' the storm to the north.

Even 10 or 15 degree variance to the right of it's currently forecast track would mean much less time the LLC will be over land, and more significantly, also means that the bulk of the storms' circulation will remain over very warm water, which would help the storm to retain it's organization better and likely result in a stronger system as it emerges off the coast of Honduras in a few days time.


Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Nov 04 2009 09:53 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Ida's Developmental Fast Track [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87078 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:54 PM

If you look at the IR unenhanced loop you can see the center before the huge convective burst just to the NNW covered it in the last hour. Would a burst that large tend to pull the center more northward? I'm just not seeing this as far west as the NHC track has it inland.

EDIT/Update: All of the models have moved to the right (be good if I knew my right from left...duh...)with the GFDL staying over water

Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Nov 04 2009 08:06 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Administrative Note [Re: JFV25]
      #87079 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:58 PM

To the contrary, this has been a wonderful hurricane season. With three fewer landfalling storms it would have been even better. What kind of things would you have enjoyed talking about. Wasn't it great that Claudette was not a hurricane when it made landfall in the Florida panhandle? Or how about Fred becoming a Major Hurricane but not hitting any land area - now that is exciting to me - and wonderful too!

There is nothing exciting about a potential hurricane hitting a nation with flooding, mudslides and the deadly consequenses that would result. I would hope that 2010 would bring us nothing of significance to talk about, but reality often dictates otherwise, and thats why this site is here. Not to hype the storm, but simply to discuss the reality of it. Your opinion is noted, however here we allow others to express their opinion as well. On this site, you can discuss/argue the rationale, but you cannot slam others for their differing opinion.
ED


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JFV25
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Re: Administrative Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87080 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:09 PM

Agreed and understood. I apologies sincerely to Mr. Mike and you, Mr Ed. I would blame you if you decide to ban me as a result of my action.

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rgd
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Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87081 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:14 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Please, and remember, when it comes to tropical meteorology, it is always best to view the current situation in an objective mentality, instead of in an subjective. YOU, may think that her fatal fate ahs been sealed; however, the rest of us on here, do not quite yet agree with you're sentiment in that regard, quite yet, Mike. I came here looking unfavored and unbaised data, can we keep it that way. Look, alright, she may fizzle; however, are the constant reminders REALLY necessary. This has been a deplorably dismel cane season, although I do not wish death nor destruction to be bethowed upon anyone because of these creatures, at the same time, I welcome this late-season excitement, have you've caught my drift in this regard, Mike? I would hope so. Lastly, let's hope 2010 really brings us all something to really talk about, we'll see, though. Cheers,




No I guess I don't agree. There is a hurricane watch for Nicaragua, and a strengthening Tropical Storm. It is currently bringing torrential rainfall and will likely impact it quite heavily. Those are the facts.

If it fizzles out over there it will be with a ton of flooding there. The atmosphere around the system is very conductive for development, and this is the area you look for development in this part of the season. It will likely not impact the US heavily if at all, but it is worth watching, especially now that it is out of mind of a lot of folks.

The goal is hurricanes without the hype. That does not mean downplaying real threats, or down casting everything. It just means analyzing the situation, real threats are thankfully rare, and in this season even moreso. I'm erring toward better accuracy. It is important to look from the angles of what will cause a system to develop, move to a place, as well as looking for reasons it will not develop or won't go somewhere. Weighing each to determine what is most likely. Most likely may still be 50.0001% chance, like the earlier statement today was (About it fizzling), and it didn't take much for it to go the other way too. (RI of the system was unexpected, but not out of the question given the environment)

And I always hope 2010 is slower than even this one.






Well you quoted me and i did not say that it would i said it may and we watch it but not wish it thanks.


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JFV25
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Re: TD 11 [Re: rgd]
      #87083 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:20 PM

I've begun to realize the level of seriousness now with Ida, and I acted very irresponsibly, Mike. God bless to all in her path. And yes, let's hope she crumbles to a pulp.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #87089 - Thu Nov 05 2009 04:52 AM Attachment (246 downloads)

Too tired for much analysis, let alone even coherent writing, except to say that it does appear to be a really raw deal for Nicaragua this morning. For all practical intents and purposes, Ida is likely already a hurricane (likely to be deemed so in post-season reanalysis at the very least - recon simply isn't in there now, and there is a huge datavoid, but my best guess has Ida currently between 75-90 MPH 1-min avg max) .. Simply put, the Dvorak technique has not been doing this cyclone justice at all since its inception as a non-designated TC/Invest.

The coastline of Nicaragua is slanted in such a manner as to accommodate the cyclone with more time over water, as Ida travels northwest right along the coast, with only painfully incremental inroads inland. In addition to extending the duration that the immediate coast is pummeled by wind and rain, it is also forcing more and more rain to fall over land, such that in the more likely event that Ida does move inland, large portions of Nicaragua will have already picked up several inches, with possibly even over a foot in some places.

It remains to be seen how long Ida gets held up over central America, but at this point the outcomes are almost certainly bad, and more bad. Ida can linger for several more days over Nicaragua/Honduras/Belize and cause awful life-threatening flooding, only to reemerge and reconstitute itself for an ultimate trip into the lower 48. Or even much worse yet for our friends in central America, Ida may simply crawl to a near stall and completely squeeze out down there.

Image uploaded. Corrected Honduras with Nicaragua.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Nov 05 2009 10:18 AM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea [Re: cieldumort]
      #87091 - Thu Nov 05 2009 08:05 AM

I think the biggest problem is the slow movement and good note on the failing of the measurement tool to totally measure all hurricanes. She is moving slow. Very slow. And, though her eye may not have made landfall the rains have already started falling. Another problem when discussing landfall...often a part of a hurricane is getting pounded because of the layout of the coastline the storm has not made landfall. This happens often when a storm comes in at Florida riding parallel to the Southwest coast down in ...takes longer for the eye to make landfall but the damage has been done already either way.

So, now she's a hurricane ...which she was last night. Still where does she go is the question and more the question if she skims the coastline and does not go far inland where the higher mountains are...and keeps a good part of her system over water.

Lot to think on. Seems 2009 gave us a curveball and sent us an interesting November.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: TD 11 [Re: JFV25]
      #87092 - Thu Nov 05 2009 08:33 AM

A zero hurricane season is certainly a good hurricane season. Coming from personal experience, where I thought it would be "exciting" to be in a huricane, the 2004 season in Central Florida certainly changed my mind on that!

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danielwAdministrator
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Hurricane Ida [Re: cieldumort]
      #87093 - Thu Nov 05 2009 09:11 AM

After looking at several different satellite sites. It appears that IDA had a near pinhole eye just prior to making landfall on the Coast of Nicarauga. The Eye may have been shrouded in clouds but it appeared in two or three of the frames that I saw. I'll try to upload an image later.

HWRF takes Ida thru the Yucatan Channel at the 5 day mark . Forecast windspeed of 40kts.

GFDL takes Ida along the same forecast track as the HWRF, but the winds are forecast above 125kts.

So we might have a 50/ 50 shot on the track, but the wind speeds are out the window. No pun intended!


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Jane
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: danielw]
      #87094 - Thu Nov 05 2009 09:32 AM

Would current Gulf water temperatures sustain/fuel this storm IF it moves north?

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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Jane]
      #87096 - Thu Nov 05 2009 10:28 AM

Central Gulf buoys are reporting SSTs of 82ºF, so the water is still fairly warm out there. These late season storms seem to thrive on more of a temp difference in the vertical, though.

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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Jane]
      #87097 - Thu Nov 05 2009 10:29 AM

Quote:


Would current Gulf water temperatures sustain/fuel this storm IF it moves north?




The short answer is a qualified yes. There will be a limit to how much Ida can extract from the northern half of the Gulf, but by that time some other factors may be in play to offset some of the maximum potential intensity loss otherwise stemming from the decreased oceanic heat content.


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WeatherNut
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87099 - Thu Nov 05 2009 10:52 AM

The thing to also remember is not just the surface SSTs but also how deep the heat goes. These storms require tremendous amounts of heat. Thats why you hear mention of the heat potential...which is VERY high in the northwest Caribbean

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rgd
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87100 - Thu Nov 05 2009 11:22 AM

which when and if it comes back out it will not be in the same type of conditions as it was before landfall.

i really think TS will be about all we see by looking at data and stuff really can't see it going back to a cat 1 or 2 Hurricane when and if it comes back out over water.


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: rgd]
      #87102 - Thu Nov 05 2009 12:24 PM

The models are still all over the place with Ida. Potential restrengthening aside, if conditions over the Gulf change little in the next few days, Ida could possibly land somewhere on the West coast of Florida. It's still way too early to be sure about that and many things can change in the next 5 - 7 days. Once the storm enters the Gulf, its only way out is by land or dissipation.

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2014: 8/2/0
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Wingman51
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87103 - Thu Nov 05 2009 12:45 PM

With the natural tendancy of these storms to Curve to the Northeast, wouldn't it follow that the west coast of Florida will be looking at stron winds and rain by the middle of next week?

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weathernet
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: rgd]
      #87107 - Thu Nov 05 2009 02:45 PM

As one would expect, Ida looks significantly weaker though the storms core circulation is quite intact at the moment. Cloud tops have certainly warmed and given the small circulation I would guess winds may be coming down fast. While the storm is no doubt over land, the question most everyone IS asking pertains to what might become of Ida and where will she go. Given the very light shear, I see no reason for the storm to become "de-coupled". Furthermore, though motion is slow, it does appear to be moving between 315 - 390 degrees. Given the time of year ( as well as the type of year ), I would not be surprised if Ida were to be sheared apart at some point beyond 96 hours.

That all said......., it is not wish-casting at all to think that a potential risk of landfall could occur along the Florida West Coast. One piece of data that "hints" that Ida might go there would be a fairly reliable Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model called the GFDL. Yes, it hints at a West Florida landfall. It remains the easternmost "outlier" of the many forecast models NHC uses, however is nontheless one of the more reliable ones. Another reason to think an eventual turn to the Northeast "could" occur, is a little point of meteorology called Climotology. Over 100 years of collected data and patterns could substantiate a concern for an eventual hook to the Northeast or East if Ida were to appear intact coming into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Oh yeah, as for "The Cone". This official NHC tool used to convey to the public of "possible" later term impact, was at 12Z today, nudged to the east and though not yet over Florida, does appear to be about 25 miles off the Florida coastline. Look, its most likely Ida won't cause those of us in the U.S. to "run for the hills", but appropriate vigiliance is common sense. Personally, I would be watching Ida a little closer if I were in Florida, than if I were in Texas.

On a seperate note ( and for a good laugh ), anyone happen to check out the 12Z run of the NAM?? It just doesn't believe that Ida exists, yet places some storm about 300 miles to the East. Check out the model run from 0Z to about 60 hours.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: cieldumort]
      #87111 - Thu Nov 05 2009 03:03 PM

I moved a few posts to the forecast lounge that were too far into speculation on the main page.

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weathernet
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87115 - Thu Nov 05 2009 05:57 PM

Wow....., while we watch the wild wacky world of forecast models ( that was a lot of "w's" ), the 18Z GFS has partialy come out. Good news here is that while an intensifying Ida would be emerging into the N.W. Caribbean in a few days, at 120 hours it suddenly starts a due east march ahead of what appears to be a potent digging short wave. Bad of course for those in Cuba, but at least would seem to spare Florida.

Bad news is, when I then projected the 120 hours point when an eastward motion starts, and then looked at the official NHC forecasted position and a few other models, in most cases the storm was already up to about 25 degrees latitude or more. Well, even if this eastward motion were to pan out, and even given that Ida could be moving in tandum with what must be ever increasing westerly shear, I think that despite its eastward motion the shear would be quite significant and perhaps would be looking at a moderate tropical storm becoming baroclinic and starting to weaken.

What i'll be most interested to see is the near term motion and how close to forecast, its speed and direction play out. Though very far from certain ( and especially if the storm is moving verses a stall ), I am getting a feeling that the models are starting to get a better handle on the storm and near/mid term steering conditions.


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JFV25
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: weathernet]
      #87116 - Thu Nov 05 2009 06:17 PM

Yup, Most of them are clustered up in a very nice consensus, there, Mike. Finally, lol.

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CoconutCandy
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Hurricane Ida Makes the Record Books for Explosive Intensification [Re: weathernet]
      #87118 - Thu Nov 05 2009 07:09 PM

I am nothing short of amazed at how quickly a full-fledged hurricane can spring up from a well developed surface low.

Even provided all the prerequisite environmental conditions are favorable for rapid metamorphosis, a deep-layer warm-core cyclone orchestrating thousands of cubic miles of warm oceanic air that extends right up to the tropopause, repleat with the rapid assembly of it's infamous and characteristic eyewall structure, it is no small feat of accomplishment for our atmosphere to be able to pull this off in the time it takes earth to make one full rotation on it's axis. From Invest to Hurricane in less than 24 hours!

Ida will surely be duely filed away in the annals of hurricane history as one of the quickest cyclones to have gone from a well organized invest to a full fledged hurricane, albeit the storm was on the small side of average, which tends to present a greater challenge for forecasters, especially with regard to intensity guidance, as well as a seemingly greater opportunity for rapid intensification to transpire.

The ongoing and quickly developing mesoscale features constituting the inner core convective processes, continually morphing and vigorously imparting their enormous loads of kinetic wind energy from the release of latent heat of condensation on a stupendous scale, eventually (and, as we've seen, sometimes quite rapidly) results in the development of the defining warm-core eyewall-structure that so uniquely characterizes these cyclones.

But, as was noted yesterday, 'Ida' was already a well developed and rapidly strengthening tropical storm by the time hurricane reconnaissance had arrived, with microwave imagery already prominently depicting a decent nascent eyewall, presumably the results of successive flaring of very deep, bursting convection very near and over an already well-developed LLCC during the previous night's convective max cycle, as discussed in previous posts.



So it's no wonder 'Ida' was able to organize so quickly and develop into a hurricane so rapidly, considering all the 'right ingredients' were there and the upper levels of the atmosphere finally(!) decided to turn favorable, and the compact nature of the cyclone as well, all of which conspired together to generate a bona-fide hurricane, complete with a pinhole eyewall at landfall, in near record breaking time. But I am still quite amazed!



As Daniel had observed ...
Quote:

After looking at several different satellite sites, it appears that IDA had a near pinhole eye just prior to making landfall on the Coast of Nicaragua. The Eye may have been shrouded in clouds, but it appeared in two or three of the frames that I saw.





.


Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Nov 06 2009 12:33 AM)


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berrywr
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Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? [Re: weathernet]
      #87121 - Fri Nov 06 2009 02:17 AM

Y'all are making me work hard tonight and looking at the 06/00Z package this evening there is an opportunity that Ida may have a future date with Florida and all points south and east. Currently, there is no turf above 20N latitude that can support a tropical system of any degree of depth vertically as is now being hinted in NHC discussions. Assuming Ida survives its trip over land with any kind of structure of its former self and assuming it can stay far enough south long enough for it's journey north and east to be survivable is all conjecture. It be nice to write Ida has a zero chance in hell of surviving. Tonight above 20N latitude it is in fact a zero chance in hell; a few days from now there is a small window of opportunity; stay tune!

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? [Re: berrywr]
      #87123 - Fri Nov 06 2009 10:52 AM

Ida is approaching the water again, and it's maintained itself which will likely allow for some restrengthening once back in the Caribbean. It was helped by staying further east and more north than was expected, likely enhanced by it becoming a hurricane before landfall.

It's likely that the forecast track will drift a little east of what it is now. The question then is how much will it convert to Extra/sub tropical when it's in the Gulf. I put more about that in the lounge. In short those along west Florida will want to keep a close watch on what happens with Ida.


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? [Re: MikeC]
      #87127 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:47 AM

I always find it fascinating to watch tropical cyclones attempt to recover after emerging back over water. Ida certainly survived the crossing, but the circulation appears to have broadened somewhat. It's difficult to pinpoint the exact center. Western Cuba and the northeast Yucatan are fortunate Ida did not remain just off the coast. It could have become pretty strong.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #87131 - Fri Nov 06 2009 01:01 PM

It appears that IDA is just shy of 'feet wet'. In other words, having the storm center back over water.

At best estimation I would say less than two hours from now, or about 2000Z.


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danielwAdministrator
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Updates [Re: danielw]
      #87132 - Fri Nov 06 2009 01:27 PM

Latest satellite IR imagery indicates the mid and upper levels of IDA are in a 50/ 50 split onshore and offshore. Lower level appears to be less than 20 miles from shore. Large thunderstorm complex is situated offshore just to the north and northeast of the center of circulation (COC). Actual center is above the "CoC" notation.



Latest HPC Model update is very interesting. Excerpt follows...
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID NOV 06/1200 UTC THRU NOV 10/0000 UTC

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LID ON ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...WHILE THE 00Z/06 ECMWF DEVELOPS A
SMALL...INTENSE LOW...AND SENDS IT INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LIKE THE OLD EC...THE GFS ALSO CARRIES A LOW
NORTHWARD...BUT HOOKS IT MORE SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE
BROADER CIRCULATION OF IDA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL CARRIES A CIRCULATION DISTINCT FROM
IDA...BUT THEN COMBINES THE TWO AND HURLS THE CYCLONE INTO
LOUISIANA. A WEAKER DEPICTION...AS PER THE 12Z/06 GEFS
MEAN...SEEMS TO BE THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
Latest Model Discussion

Edited by danielw (Fri Nov 06 2009 01:32 PM)


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hurricane expert
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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen [Re: MikeC]
      #87134 - Fri Nov 06 2009 02:57 PM

Looks to me like this storm is already starting to flare up and getting its act together

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen [Re: hurricane expert]
      #87135 - Fri Nov 06 2009 03:01 PM

The setup for Ida is pretty complex, the eastern pacific low is moving north, there's a low in the Bay of Campeche and perhaps a front influence. Ida in the Gulf may be sheared, but there will be a lot of energy out there.

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MichaelA
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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen [Re: MikeC]
      #87136 - Fri Nov 06 2009 03:43 PM

It looks like Ida initially pulled some of the energy away from the East Pac system before making landfall. They now seem to be traveling in tandem and there is that "wall" of mountains between them. There is a lot of different stuff going on over the entire Gulf basin and it remains to be seen which system will become dominate.

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Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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Rasvar
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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen [Re: MikeC]
      #87146 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:09 AM

Hard to tell looking at only infrared sat, but it does appear as if Ida is improving her structure and the convection is now trying to wrap around the circulation center. Ida may be moving a little east of the forecast track and heading for the area of best possible development south of Cuba. It will be intersting to see what she looks like when we get visible back in the morning. I think she has potential to reach Cat 1 before the conditions turn more hostile and drop her back to TS level. It seems the biggest question is going to be if Ida gets caught up in the frontal boundary or is forced to circle back south. Circling back may be the best result for Florida since she will probably get torn apart over time.

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Jim


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WeatherNut
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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen [Re: Rasvar]
      #87149 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:11 AM

special statement from NHC 1:30a...Tropical Storm Ida again

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weathernet
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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87150 - Sat Nov 07 2009 03:05 AM

Good that NHC pulled the trigger on upgrading Ida back to TS intensity. Given the intensity of bursting close to what would appear to be the COC, and the very cold tops, I would not be surprised if wind speeds were bumped up to at least 50mph at 12Z. At this time, I am seeing hints of banding north and south of center. Given the smaller ( and obviosly intact ) circulation that Ida has, it should not be too surprising to see fairly quick intensification. The fact that its current forward motion appears to be due north, would seem to help temporarily nullify any light southwesterly shear.

At this hour, my best guess would put a center around 17N and 84W. If correct, than this would place the center as far north and slightly east of the 12Z forecast position. Given the amazing collaboration of just about all models, Ida would be immediately start treking NNW'ward. I cannot see any evidence of such motion yet, and will be most interesting to see if first visible pics will verify a center any further west than current ( 84.0 ). If not, and with a TS already farther north and east of forecast, than the new initialized data would seem at minimum to shift the forecast eastward a little. Even if overalal dynamics seemed unchanged, I am not sure if a somewhat stronger TS would not impact short term guidance at least a little.

Might not be a bad idea for the NOAA peeps, to burn a little of there unspent 2009 hurricane season recon and upper air testing funds, and perhaps juice up a little extra synoptic data for the models to ingest. Though surprising if such were to occur, should Ida strengthen and continue northward - and by 0Z ( 11/8 ) tomorrow still not be any further west than 84 degrees, than we might see some interesting forecast shifts.


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danielwAdministrator
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Tropical Storm IDA [Re: weathernet]
      #87151 - Sat Nov 07 2009 04:05 AM

Latest satellite imagery indicates IDA is nearly as well organized as it was prior to the first RECON flight several days ago.



And speaking of RECON they are tasked with a flight scheduled to depart in about 2 hours. If my memory is correct. Fix time is 10 AM CST or 16Z. for location: D. 17.2N 84.7W
Currently there is no assigned tasking for the NOAA Aircraft. But that may change with the mid morning Plan of the Day issuance. As it often does.
NOAA was checking one of their planes out yesterday. See NHC Recon page and NOAA HDOBs.

Current center, using the above sat shot is 17.7N/ 84.2W at 0831Z or 2:31 AM CST. That makes the center 0.5N and 0.5E of where the fix was to be located in 7 hours. I'm using the center of the top light grey cloud for reference.
Which is slightly wobbling around the CoC.


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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm IDA [Re: danielw]
      #87152 - Sat Nov 07 2009 04:51 AM

Ida appears to be trending faster and reorganizing more efficiently than model consensus. More alarming in this trend is the current environment rather very supportive from the ocean all the way up... suggesting that Ida may follow a path more in line with the earlier very aggressive model runs. Should the forward motion continue to the right and faster than official guidance expected, it becomes increasingly possible that the net effective shear over Ida will be less than forecast by the time she will be in the GOM, if in fact that is where she is heading, and it would appear that she is indeed. This could make for a cyclone running much hotter than what looks like some rather tame official forecasts, at a time that higher pressure to her N/NE imparts an ever tighter pressure gradient. And it remains to be seen if the mid-latitude trough swinging into the GOM intersects her soon enough to clip her wings.. or in fact arrives only in time to impart some extra outflow and give her a nudge further east. It is probably time for the northern Yucatan, Cuba and now even the southeast to begin preparing for the genuinely high possibility, if not probability, of a rare November top-end tropical storm, if not even hurricane.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm IDA [Re: cieldumort]
      #87153 - Sat Nov 07 2009 08:47 AM

Ida seems to be tracking just a tad to the east of the expected tropical point for this hour. She is getting more news here in Central florida. Suprisingly, the news stations ae taking a very objective stance on her so far - no hype, just facts. We expect Tuesday - Thursday will bring showers to the region. We need the rain but we don't want the winds.

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