Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Looking at the JSL color image (link time sensitive) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?

---

Also appears to be doing that on the Vis Floater Loop. I'm hoping that is a temporary wobble rather than a trend, but there appears to be an eye feature developing to the NNE of the advisory position at 85.9 W; 21.8 N.

---

I was closely looking at that supposed visible eye feature also, but the 1km-zoomed animated loop from the NRL website helped me to conclude otherwise ...



It appeared *very convincing* for a few frames, with what appeared to be eyewall convection wrapping around this pseudo-eye. It looked even more convincing in the IR and WV loops. But the rapid speed that it was shunted to the NE revealed that it was not a visible eye after all.

And even though central pressure has dropped another 5 millibars, to 978mb, and sustained winds are now at 100 mph, there is still not a visible eye forming, although a well-established hurricane eyewall is very much there, tucked under a very solid and dense CDO. But you can still see 'convective turret penetrations' into the stratosphere in some of the more vigorous, deepest convection comprising the eyewall (the 'hot towers') which appear to quickly rotate around a common center, indicating where the 'center of the cylone' is approx. located.



As an aside, I surmised that Ida might make it up to a high-end Cat 1 or a low-end Cat 2 Hurricane after she left Honduras, even *before* she made her first landfall in Nicaragua. And NHC was forecasting Ida peaking out as a 45 Kt. tropical storm 'post-Honduras' at that time. Go figure? We can blame it on the models ability (or lack thereof) to handle the complex dynamics and vagaries of the late-season atmosphere, especially when shear (intensity & location) and impending extratropical transition are involved!

It certainly is worth repeating that late-season storms are notorously difficult to accurately forecast, especially intensity! And now, with Ida, we're looking at a great deal of uncertainty with the track AND the intensity forecast, all greatly complicated and compounded by the 'extratropical transition' fly-in-the-ointment factor.

Gotta' feel for the forecasters and emergency management personal during this rapidly developing storm situation. And it's going to get a lot more hectic before all is said and done and Ida is in the record books. Still much to transpire, though, so stay informed and if you live in the potentially threatened areas, for goodness sakes, be prepared well ahead of time!


Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:23 PM)

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Subsequent photos reveal that it was not an eye, but possibly some subsidence that has now spun farther to the NE. The center of the CDO appears to be about 86.1W; 21.8N now.

---

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Agree. Everyone is heading back to work tomorrow with a Holiday on Wednesday. We will start to hear from Emergency Management in our area over the next couple of days one way or the other.

---

Post Extras: