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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87239 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:05 PM

Just so fickle and the same steering currents that brought you today's spaghetti model mode brought you storms like Gordon:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Gordon_1994_track.png

Not comparing them in any way except when you see them in the history books and wonder...how did that happen.

November...

It's a very fluid situation. IF the front moves faster, if IDA moves faster, if one slows... yes this storm could theoretically make a hard right turn and create misery all across Northern and Central Florida.. but remember one thing...

Even if she turns fast to the right her storm surge and the dome of water she has shoved north will have to go somewhere and there will be flooding along the Florida Panhandle..

As for Tampa... it's not over til it's over.

She's a solid storm right now if you ask me..days away from talking anything but tropical!

And, think earlier she was stronger than 90...but that's just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87240 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:08 PM

Subsequent photos reveal that it was not an eye, but possibly some subsidence that has now spun farther to the NE. The center of the CDO appears to be about 86.1W; 21.8N now.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87241 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:33 PM

Amazing angle... shows a lot of what is going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ft.html

I can't say for sure what it is.. I am not in a plane doing recon (wish I was) but know that from my perspective she is doing quite well.

And, system in West Gulf of Mexico acts like it is running blocking for her to make a play for the Gulf Coast.

Mind you I keep saying Pensacola.. but hard to say for sure.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: November storms... [Re: LoisCane]
      #87242 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:35 PM

I agree. Obviously the GOM in November is not like the middle of Summer, but having lived in the Tampa Bay Area my entire life, I have seen some strange things with storms in our area. Ironically, smaller storms with a lack of preparation have caused the most damage. Those that live in our area will recall "The No Name Storm" that caused significant damage and totally caught everyone off guard.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87243 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:44 PM

Yeah, you know as someone who has DEEP roots in Tampa... I was surprised at how easy going the Tampa Bay paper was... about this storm. I'd worry and keep up interest and talk on how hard storms like this are to predict as a storm in November would in theory ride a front into Tampa Bay... this is a different storm but its still a day or two away from a sure forecast.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Eye Forming? [Re: LoisCane]
      #87244 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:48 PM

I believe i told you that back a few posts people should watch loops not a frame or 2 and right away think this is a eye or trend.Yes all of us on the west coast of florida are watching it but that is just it watch.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: November storms... [Re: LoisCane]
      #87245 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:56 PM

I'm watching Ida's progress very closely. I think the uncertainty in the forecast beyond 48 hours is keeping folks from crying "Wolf!" just yet. I'm sure interest, in this area, in Ida will spike up tomorrow into Tuesday.

Edit: It appears that Ida has been moving due North the last hour or so.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2

Edited by MichaelA (Sun Nov 08 2009 02:59 PM)


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tropicswatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: November storms... [Re: MichaelA]
      #87246 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:02 PM

The basic consensus 48 hrs. ago was for Ida to remain at tropical storm strength but here we are with a 100 mph hurricane. Our local mets also felt strongly Ida would remain a TS. The general forecast track has also shifted often from right to left over this time as well. Ida will probably continue to keep us all guessing until landfall.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: November storms... [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87248 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:08 PM

She's got warm water...moderate sheer and they are being way too conservative I think... she does not look like a cat 1 storm and she is going to stay nicely put together for a while.

wishing can't make things change...

classic set up actually

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: November storms... [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87249 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:10 PM

I don't think the forecast track has been all that bad so far. It has been somewhat well behaved so far. Probably will behave for the next 24 hours. Unfortunately, intensity forecast is still low reliability. It has been troublesome in easy to predict storms as well as more complex systems like Ida. Just watch the cone and be ready, is the best thing I can say. I did my stocking of a mini-kit yesterday so I have enough to last a day or so without power. hopefully people will come back from weekend plans and get the news tonight so they aren't surprised tomorrow morning.

--------------------
Jim


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! [Re: MichaelA]
      #87250 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:12 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Looking at the JSL color image (link time sensitive) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?


Also appears to be doing that on the Vis Floater Loop. I'm hoping that is a temporary wobble rather than a trend, but there appears to be an eye feature developing to the NNE of the advisory position at 85.9 W; 21.8 N.




I was closely looking at that supposed visible eye feature also, but the 1km-zoomed animated loop from the NRL website helped me to conclude otherwise ...



It appeared *very convincing* for a few frames, with what appeared to be eyewall convection wrapping around this pseudo-eye. It looked even more convincing in the IR and WV loops. But the rapid speed that it was shunted to the NE revealed that it was not a visible eye after all.

And even though central pressure has dropped another 5 millibars, to 978mb, and sustained winds are now at 100 mph, there is still not a visible eye forming, although a well-established hurricane eyewall is very much there, tucked under a very solid and dense CDO. But you can still see 'convective turret penetrations' into the stratosphere in some of the more vigorous, deepest convection comprising the eyewall (the 'hot towers') which appear to quickly rotate around a common center, indicating where the 'center of the cylone' is approx. located.



As an aside, I surmised that Ida might make it up to a high-end Cat 1 or a low-end Cat 2 Hurricane after she left Honduras, even *before* she made her first landfall in Nicaragua. And NHC was forecasting Ida peaking out as a 45 Kt. tropical storm 'post-Honduras' at that time. Go figure? We can blame it on the models ability (or lack thereof) to handle the complex dynamics and vagaries of the late-season atmosphere, especially when shear (intensity & location) and impending extratropical transition are involved!

It certainly is worth repeating that late-season storms are notorously difficult to accurately forecast, especially intensity! And now, with Ida, we're looking at a great deal of uncertainty with the track AND the intensity forecast, all greatly complicated and compounded by the 'extratropical transition' fly-in-the-ointment factor.

Gotta' feel for the forecasters and emergency management personal during this rapidly developing storm situation. And it's going to get a lot more hectic before all is said and done and Ida is in the record books. Still much to transpire, though, so stay informed and if you live in the potentially threatened areas, for goodness sakes, be prepared well ahead of time!


Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:23 PM)


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: November storms... [Re: MichaelA]
      #87251 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:27 PM

Agree. Everyone is heading back to work tomorrow with a Holiday on Wednesday. We will start to hear from Emergency Management in our area over the next couple of days one way or the other.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87252 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:28 PM

I so feel for the forecasters...

yes... really....

and so true what you said..

"It certainly is worth repeating that late-season storms are notorously difficult to accurately forecast, especially intensity"

So... let me pose a question...

how does the continued convection in the NW GOM affect the interplay between IDA and the big front... if at all.

Think this is a key in whether it enhances Ida or it strengthens the frontal boundary...

Where is the front exactly?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87253 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:29 PM

In all fairness to Michael, his astute observations answered the question before I finished the previous reply.

Quote:

Subsequent photos reveal that it was not an eye, but possibly some subsidence that has now spun farther to the NE. The center of the CDO appears to be about 86.1W; 21.8N now.


Nice work!

...


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87254 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:33 PM

Quote:

Agree. Everyone is heading back to work tomorrow with a Holiday on Wednesday. We will start to hear from Emergency Management in our area over the next couple of days one way or the other.




With a projected early Tuesday morning landfall, some areas of the coast should already be hearing from their emergency officials.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: November storms... [Re: StormHound]
      #87255 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:40 PM

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declares a state of emergency as a result of the
forecasted conditions of Hurricane Ida.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! [Re: LoisCane]
      #87256 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:41 PM

The trough is coming out of the center section of the country, you can see it on WV, located roughly along a line form NW Texas up to the NE. It's there and moving East quick. It has yet to start digging south though. And as how our hybrid system interacts with it.. Well your guess is as good as anyones at this point..

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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: November storms... [Re: StormHound]
      #87257 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:43 PM

Winds are 100 and a more north track at the 4pm update father away from the west coast of florida


So a cat 2 system still moving nnw at 10 NOT NORTH but nnw and pressure is 976


22.2n 86.3w

Satellite imagery and radar data from Mexico and Cuba
suggest that the eyewall has become less organized during the past
few hours...which may be a sign that Ida is being affected by
ongoing southwesterly vertical wind shear.


Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:55 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: November storms... [Re: rgd]
      #87258 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:26 PM

Ida looks to be picking up more forward speed, and is erring a little east of the projected track, but not all that much according to recon Those in the watch area should be thinking of doing some prep work, and the rest of those in the Cone should be watching it closely. Ida could approach more rapidly than forecast.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: November storms... [Re: MikeC]
      #87259 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:46 PM

I was out this morning with Mike Watkins from HurricaneTrack.com over at Universal Studios when we found out about the Hurricane Watch. I know Mike Watkins left early to head to the Panhandle and Alabama. Mark Sudduth and the rest are opening the live video up to everyone for ida. Check it out over at hurricanetrack.com.

Direct coverage link.


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