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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87320 - Mon Nov 09 2009 02:06 PM

Although the cloud tops are warming somewhat from previously, the MCC over the LCC is managing to persist in the face of the shear. Yes, these storms are exhibiting signs of the shear too, but IMHO, does not appear to be 'prohibitive', thus allowing the storms to attain 'super size' proportions and devolop very deeply as well, with rather substantial very cold cloud tops still.
Quote:

I think the 1:00 EST advisory shows this new burst. Pressure has fallen to 992mb, below the 993mb of the 7:00am advisory. Not sure how much longer this burst will maintain, though.


The fact that they decided to give the nod to the very impressive outburst over the LLC and actually drop the central pressure by 1mb I think says a lot. Maybe I'm reading too much into it though.

When you say "... how much longer this burst will maintain", I assume you're referring to the entire event of this MCC forming over the LLC. As long as the storms are quickly replaced by new deep convection and the MCC feature persists, then it's likely Ida will at least maintain her current intensity for a while longer, instead of quickly spinning down, which would be the case were her LLC still be totally exposed for all this time.
Quote:

Ida seems to be "bursting." As soon as one burst of convection shears off, another forms near the center.


Good observations, but I think the term you're looking for here is "Cycling". Cycling of convection over a LLC occurs when new thunderstorms immediately pop up when previous storms are still in the process of dissapating. I prefer to reserve the word 'bursting' for individual supercells that develop explosively, attain great heights all the way to the stratosphere very quickly with convective turrent penetrations blasting into the stratophere, in some cases for hundreds or even a few thousand feet above the tropopause.

Yes, Ida's current display of this MCC over the center fits the bill perfectly for 'Cycling Convection', with each of the cells 'bursting' into existance and blasting all the way into the lower stratosphere.

Also, quite interestingly, you can now see on the Long-Range Doppler Radar from Mobile, the attempted formation of an eyewall structure. The eye is most certainly there, but only half the eyewall. And the intense, cycling convection we've been noticing on animated satellite imagery is that arc of intense reflectivities showing up in the NW semicircle on the radar.



It's trying to wrap around the clear center, but appears to be having a tough time in doing so, presumably because of the persistant shear. If the shear were not present, I think Ida would be making landfall as a solid Cat 2 or possibly a Cat 3 Hurricane. Thank goodness for the blessed shear! To the rescue once again!

Long Range Animated Doppler Radar Loop from Mobile

...


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87321 - Mon Nov 09 2009 02:15 PM

I too am wondering about the "feeder" band (if that is what it really is) coming on shore into the Florida peninsula. I see some pretty hefty convection going on due west of the tip of southern Florida. I would like to pose the question: What are the chances of this band carrying some tornados?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #87322 - Mon Nov 09 2009 03:06 PM

According to the Storm Prediction Center, only about a 5% chance.

Getting close

Mobile Alabama Radar Loop


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Tracking Ida's Inner Core: Doppler Radar Comprehension vs. Overlays [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87323 - Mon Nov 09 2009 04:03 PM

Interesting you should also post the long-range doppler radar link from Mobile depicting Ida's circulation as she makes her final approach towards landfall in a few hours.

I prefer my 'version' however, because I turn off (uncheck) all the overlays *except* "Radar" and "Counties", (especially important to turn off that darn pesky "Topo" layer!) to cut down on the visual 'background noise'. And it really allows you to focus on just the radar reflectivities. Click "rock" for a back-and-forth 'swing' effect and speed it up just a tad and you're set to go!

Just wanted to share this with everyone, if you're not already aware of the 'options' you have. I think folks will find it much easier to 'cogitate' what's really going on and more easily interpret convective trends of intensity and motion. Something about that back-and forth motion that really seems to make it more comprehensible. Good stuff to know about, in case ya didn't.




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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ida Being Sheared Heavily [Re: MikeC]
      #87324 - Mon Nov 09 2009 04:39 PM

Recording a Gulf Shores webcam (with radar) at:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?72

Earlier recordings:

Cancun Radar pass of IDA
Cuban Radar pass of IDA - Note this was very distorted and wasn't reliable.



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CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Ida Making Her Final Approach as a Strong Storm [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87331 - Mon Nov 09 2009 08:33 PM

Tropical Storm Ida is maintaining itself as a force still to be reckoned with as she makes her final approach towards immenent landfall, perhaps in the Mobile area.

Although much of Ida's circulation has long been sheared away towards the NE, and in the process steadily weakening it from a Cat 2 hurricane just yesterday down to a strong tropical storm, she's been very tenacious in hanging onto that maximum tropical storm status for quite a few hours now, despite the ever-present shear.

Complements of a strong and sustained burst of very strong thunderstorms (see above) over a low circulation center that had been previously exposed after the upper half had been sheared off, Ida was then able to, despite the shear, begin to rebuild it's inner core structure and nearly succeeded in doing so, redeveloping an inpressive looking eyewall feature as best displayed in the 85 GHz Microwave frequency band, one of my favorite tools for analyzing tropical cyclone structure.



You can easily see a fairly decent eyewall in the NW semicircle, presumably where the strongest thunderstorms are located, and the eye was nearly able to close off into a complete circular eyewall. Were it not for the continuing shear, it's likely Ida could well have regained hurricane strength.

But, as of this moment, Ida is still a solid top-of-the-line tropical storm with some inner-core characteristics of a low end hurricane. If you look closely at the image, you can also see Ida being tilted towards the NE, in the direction of the shear. The surface low (concentric light blue lines) appears to be lagging behind by some distance the very obvious pseudo-eyewall feature (bright red). The center of the surface low appears to be just SW of the strong convective band, and that would imply considerable tilt. And this is another deterrent from Ida being able to strengthen significantly, despite the large flare-up of bursting convection earlier in the day. So the shearing effect works in various ways to diminish the strength of cyclones.

Even though Ida is being strongly sheared and looks to be decidedly sub-tropical, she is still a true tropical storm, and likely won't make extra-tropical transition until sometime well after landfall.

It's worth repeating here that we can all be very thankful here in November that the shear once again came to our rescue and prevented Ida from becoming a major hurricane that might have targeted New Orleans. But the shear knocked it down in strength, ripped the top half off and sent it streaking away and gently pushed her away and to the right of the Mighty Mississippi.

So while this will be quite a good blow and some coastal flooding for Mobile and the Panhandle area, I do believe we dodged, yet again, what could have been a much more destructive situation. And it's a good thing there will be more Ida's to churn the oceans again one day, as this Ida will certainly not have her name added to the infamous list of retired hurricane names. And that's something we can all be thankful for.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Transition to extratropical? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87332 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:18 PM

It has gotten very difficult to discern a center on the radar. As best I tell, Ida has begun slowing and turning more easterly. It seems that she may be heading for a somewhat of a landfall at Florala on the Florida Alabama border. Although I am not even sure you can call it a center anymore. I suspect the wind field may be expanding now.

update: I can't find the COC on radar or on sat. Ida may be extratropical now. Or everything has been sheared away from the COC.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Mon Nov 09 2009 09:46 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87333 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:54 PM

The only thing I can explain it with is that the system has decoupled, there is one mid level center nearing Mobile and AL/FL border and the low level center looks to be southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. In that case it may never actually have a true "landfall" in the classic tropical sense. Will be interesting to see the 10PM EST Advisory.

Just a note, Most of the site was designed around EDT (Not EST) so a lot of times will say EDT When it should be saying EST. This is how rare November systems are.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Posts: 571
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Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #87334 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:57 PM

Well, that would kind of fit with some of the models that were calling for most of the energy to split and go north with the front but leave a low to meander over Florida and the Gulf without much with it.

--------------------
Jim


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87335 - Mon Nov 09 2009 10:14 PM

Jim Cantore just mentioned this on the air as justification that the system is extratropical:

URNT12 KNHC 100235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 10/02:04:20Z
B. 29 deg 09 min N
088 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1400 m
D. 39 kt
E. 193 deg 33 nm
F. 251 deg 39 kt
G. 194 deg 35 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 14 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1519 m
K. 6 C / NA Dewpoint in the center of Ida is 43F! Not tropical in any manner.
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 39 KT SW QUAD 01:54:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND WND OCCURED DURING CONVECTION
;

--------------------
Jim


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87336 - Mon Nov 09 2009 10:45 PM

agree with above post... but appeared from what recon found along Al. coast was strong tropical force winds...
agree that 43F dew point at 5kft in the center is pretty much a sign the core is no longer in my view a "tropical system"... but looking at buoys to the south.. there is upper 60F dew points coming north... yes there at the surface... but a 43F dew point in the center is umm.. Whoa! Ida... this seems to be some kind of record?

PS: lastest vortex is 999mb
dew point 46F

based on data.. all warm windy wx is north of center.. between coast and center.... there still is some warm air trying to come up from the south

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Nov 09 2009 10:48 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Ida Landfall Overnight [Re: MikeC]
      #87339 - Tue Nov 10 2009 04:12 AM

Ida's low level center has been exposed for several hours and can be seen on IR satellite imagery and will be onshore within the next few hours. Shortwave number 1 is now phasing with Ida's mid & upper level remains and the complex system now has the appearance of a hybrid system and what is now shaping up as a dry slot to the east of Ida's LLC and the classic comma of a dynamic (extratropical) low. Models are coming into agreement with cyclogenesis forming off the coast of GA/SC as a second shortwave dives into the area and clears everything out.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87340 - Tue Nov 10 2009 04:47 AM

Okay, the vortex data message says 7C; it's wrong. I took a look at the dropsonde data and surface temperature is 23.4C and a depression of 0.2 and at 859 mbs 18.2C and a depression of 0.6; that is a dewpoint of 16.6 and if rounded it's 17C/62F. A simple typo!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87341 - Tue Nov 10 2009 08:39 AM

With all due respect to Jim Cantore and all others...

Vortex message dew points are not totally indicative of whether the system is a Tropical, extratropical or Hybrid system.
The spread of Temp inside eye versus dewpoint inside eye is more of a sign how the strom is performing.

Example from Major Hurricane Katrina in 2005 near peak intensity.

URNT12 KNHC 281825
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1755Z
B. 26 DEG 20 MIN N
88 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2242 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 140 DEG 160 KT
G. 050 DEG 22 NM
H. 902 MB
I. 14 C/ 3050 M
J. 29 C/ 3064 M
K. 6 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 1234/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A Katrina OB 05
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Interpretation from tropicalatlantic.com decoder:

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 29°C (84°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: danielw]
      #87342 - Tue Nov 10 2009 08:20 PM

I checked the entire message. XXAA are mandatory and XXBB/XXCC are signficant levels are represented by 11, 22, 33, 44, 55, etc followed by the millibar level. Within the XXBB data set I noted "21212" followed by wind data groups.

A quick tutorial; positive temperatures are even numbered; negative temperatures are odd numbered.

I've copy and pasted this snippit from below:

21212 00999 12513 11994 14013 22991 13523 33892 09525 44890 08016 55887 06512 66876 06015 77871 05513 88857 07011 99851 11007 11840 14506

00999 12513 is a wind group. A temperature of 12.5? What do we know about odd temperature groups? 22991 is 13523, 33892 is 09525, 44890 is 08016, 55887 is 06512, 66876 is 06015, 77871 is 05513, 88857 is 07011, 99851 is 11007 and 11840 is 14506.

A closer look at 99851 in the XXAA grouping is the 850 mb wind; they match, both a wind direction from 110 at 07 knots. The temperature at 850 was 19.6C and a dew point depression of 3.4 or a dew point of 16.2
At the surface the temperature was 23.4 and a dew point depression 0.2 or dew point of 23.2

Feel free to let me know what y'all think; thanks!

UZNT13 KNHC 100552
XXAA 60068 99295 70888 08198 99999 23402 12513 00512 ///// /////
92670 21203 ///// 85401 19634 11007 88999 77999
31313 09608 80543
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 2953N08881W 0545 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10517 998840 REL
2953N08880W 054315 SPG 2953N08880W 054520 =
XXBB 60068 99295 70888 08198 00999 23402 11859 18206 22850 19634
33840 19061
21212 00999 12513 11994 14013 22991 13523 33892 09525 44890 08016
55887 06512 66876 06015 77871 05513 88857 07011 99851 11007 11840
14506
31313 09608 80543
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 2953N08881W 0545 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10517 998840 REL
2953N08880W 054315 SPG 2953N08880W 054520 =

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 149
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: berrywr]
      #87343 - Tue Nov 10 2009 11:50 PM

Here is a little snippet from the Hypo MC advisories that I found interesting this evening -

Quote:

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR 60
MILES...95 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND 170
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.





The question is, redevelop as a stronger extratropical storm, subtropical system, or tropical system?


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vpbob21
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 99
Loc: Ohio
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #87344 - Wed Nov 11 2009 01:00 AM

Even though Ida is in the history books as far as being a tropical system, parts of the East Coast are still in for a rough go of it the next few days. The extratropical remains of Ida are moving east across the Florida panhandle. An old cold front is dropping into the Southeast. Then to the east you've got 98L that some models project will get absorbed into this whole mess. The result will be a sub-1000 mb low off the SE coast. Then you've got a 1030+ mb high sliding across the Great Lakes. When this high moves east to New York State the gradient is really going to tighten up from Cape Hatteras up to the Delmarva. With this setup expected to change only very slowly, it looks like we are setting up for at least a moderate if not major long duration coastal flooding event starting later tomorrow and possibly lasting into the weekend. On top of all that some areas may see up to 7 inches of rain.

From the Wakefield VA forecast discussion:

MODELS NOW COMING TOGETHER ON WHAT CUD END UP AS A SGNFCNT MARINE
EVENT ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN. VERY CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. UPSHOT WILL BE FOR A PROLONGED PRD OF NORTHEAST
(ONSHORE WNDS) SUSTAINED CLOSED TO GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
TO STORM FORCE BEGINNING LATE WED AND LASTING THRU LATE FRI.

WILL CONT TO CAP THE SEAS AT 15 FT FOR NOW...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QSTN
TO SEAS SEAS AOA 20 FT WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE.


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 149
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: vpbob21]
      #87345 - Wed Nov 11 2009 06:48 PM

The story about the storm has broken to the general public on CNN this evening. It is going to be a nasty mess when all of this is over.

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