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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Shear vs Ida
      #87213 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 AM

6:40AM EST Tuesday 10 November 2009 Update
Ida's energy is over land along with a tail to the east. Most of the rain is over Alabama, a bit west, and a large area of Georgia (Including Atlanta, unfortunately). For some areas where the energy from Ida crosses over, you will
have flooding.



Although there may be some rain across Florida related to this, it won't be all that much.

Ida's center of circulation is still offshore, but is "naked" with no convection to speak of. Shear pulled it north and east away from it, and it may never make landfall as a tropical storm.

It was an extremely complex forecast having to do with intensity and timing, which the NHC admits on its own it still isn't good at. The track forecast itself was still pretty good, just the strength and timing.

With Ida near an end, another system in the Central Atlantic has 10-30% chance of development, and most likely will not be a problem.


9:44PM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Radar and Aircraft positions aren't really matching up anymore, so it looks like Ida has decoupled. It's got the appearance of a front developing to its southwest, and the band shooting across Florida and to the south. Landfall around Mobile (maybe a bit east) is possible with one possible center. The other is further west or not at all (Se of Louisiana).

Outside of Ida, believe it or not, another area in the Central Atlantic has roughly 30% chance of development.

9:52AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Ida now a Tropical Storm, all Hurricane Warnings have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings.

6:40AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Overnight Ida has been affected greatly by vertical shear and cooler water temperatures. The race between the shear/extratropical transition and landfall continues. It looks like the transition is winning now--there was a hint this was possible last night when recon found hail/lightning in the northern quadrant. The Hurricane Center is being very generous calling it a Hurricane at the 7AM EST advisory.

Judging by appearance it's likely that Ida will be a strong Tropical or Hybrid Storm at landfall maybe even decoupled from most of the convection, with a lot of hybrid storm tendencies, minor to moderate storm surge will be an issue near the landfall point and east. Along with the enhanced possibility for small short-lived tornadoes.

Because of the transition to extratropical, most to all of the worst weather may be well before landfall and mostly to the east and north.



For the rest of the Florida peninsula clouds from Ida will likely be overhead most of the day with the windy conditions, but there won't be much rain except in the Panhandle and Alabama.

It's mostly good news this morning, in the fact that most of the very strong winds will not reach the surface with the shear. The only real worry is some coastal flooding and spotty short lived tornadoes before landfall. The windy conditions may feel strong helped by the general gradient across a very large area.

The remnants of Ida will probably hang around as a front begins to move in, so the rest of Florida and parts of the southeast will probably seeing rain/wind from Ida's remains all week.

10PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Warnings now up from Pascagoula, MI Eastward to Indian Pass, FL. Even though it will likely weaken, those in the area need to prepare for a possible Category 2 hurricane. Areas near the landfall point and eastward will see the worst from the system.

Tropical Storm warnings are up for areas just either side of the Hurricane Warning Area.

Any landfall is likely Tuesday morning, it is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If the NHC's current track were to verify it would be very near Pensacola, but there is a fair degree of uncertainty either way.

4PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Ida has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, and conditions may allow for it to strengthen a bit more until tomorrow. The current forecast track puts it close to the Florida/Albama border as a strong tropical storm or low end hurricane (possibly hybrid) Tuesday morning. This is accelerated from what was discussed previously as Ida is moving faster than forecast earlier. It will be a race of sorts between Ida's current structure, the cooler water in the central/northern gulf and the extratropical transition which may not happen now until it gets very close to landfall



Because of this Hurricane Watches are up east of Grand Isle, LA all the way east to Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle. I wouldn't focus too much on the landfall point, because it is transitioning to Extra tropical affects could be felt quite far to the east of the general landfall area as well, mostly coastal Flooding and winds.

There is already a strong gradient wind across the Florida peninsula that right now has little to do with Ida.

Those in the watch area should take precautions for an approaching hurricane and consult local media and officials. The rest of those in the Cone should continue to monitor Ida very closely.

Ida has killed roughly 91 people in El Salvador from the flooding rains.

Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins will be in the Ida landfall area and are live streaming video currently over at Hurricane Track.com.
Direct Ida coverage link.

What are conditions in your area related to Ida? Let us know here
Have a guess, long range model analysis, or thought about where Ida will be going, let us know in the lounge.

10AM EST Sunday Update
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.

Original Post
Ida is moving very close to Cancun and the tip of the Yucatan today, but looks like it will miss landfall to the east. Overnight, Ida was moving more northwest, but recently it seems to be turning more to the north this morning.



Ida remains a category 1 hurricane for now, as it enters the Gulf later today it will begin to see slilghtly more hostile conditions, that will get very hostile in 2 to 3 days. Around then Ida is expected to begin to transform into an Extra Tropical system, lacking pure Tropical Characteristics. It's a border condition that may prove out interesting for forecast and any warnings/watches that may be issued for the Gulf.

Based on the current forecast track the National Hurricane Center (NHC) may not issue typical tropical storm warnings, and leave it to local NWS offices to issue Gale and coastal Flood watches. This depends on how quickly Ida makes that transition.

The future for Ida is very cloudy, and the track may be adjusted east or west based on exactly where Ida moves, but when it does make the transition the wind field will expand enhancing wind across the Gulf. With this morning's track, affects to Florida will be minimal until Wednesday or Thursday. If it were to move further east, it may be more. But the system itself will remain west enough to keep it from being too bad. The pressure gradient already existing will keep it breezy in Florida, with or without Ida's influence.

Those in the Central And eastern Gulf need to keep a close watch on Ida this week. Especially those immediately on the coastline that have flooded with storms similar in the past.

Ida Related Links

Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins will be in the Ida landfall area and are live streaming video currently over at Hurricane Track.com.
Direct Ida coverage link.


Emergency Management

FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Alabama Beach Webcams
Phoenix All Suite Gulf Shores Webcam (With Radar) flhurricane recording


Cancun Radar Animation
Cancun Radar
Ida Storm Spotlight
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Ida Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

98L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormPulse Map


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: MikeC]
      #87215 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:11 AM

Imagine that. At 6 AM CST this morning most, if not all of the NWS Offices on the Northern Gulf Coast were Not expecting any Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch or Warning conditions to be met.

That's how fast things can change. Especially with Hurricane Ida.

Next RECON is due for an 18Z or 1 pm EST center fix.

Waiting on the Discussion... which is about 25 minutes delayed as of now. Hmm. Must be a lot of pre-Discussion discussion at NHC.

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:16 AM)


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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: MikeC]
      #87216 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:16 AM

After looking at the discussion, I decided to get rid of this. Better for me not to open that can of worms at this time and see what happens. [If you didn't see what I had before, don't worry]

It will be interesting to see when the transition actually occurs and if Ida maintains Hurricane strength to landfall.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:48 AM)


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rgd
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Rasvar]
      #87217 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:25 AM

Hurricane force winds only extend out 15 miles from the center.Very small area of hurricane force winds.

this is NOT a large hurricane.


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rgd
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: MikeC]
      #87218 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:28 AM

To be fair mike you have the wrong track in the top that is the old track that did not have it hit shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143914.shtml?3-daynl#contents

that is the true track and while it is not as bad for the state it is still the right map.

Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:31 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: rgd]
      #87219 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:43 AM

You are correct. The track projection in the Main Page leadoff article was not dynamic, however the map on the left side of the screen does update automatically.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Rasvar]
      #87220 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:49 AM

It appears that you area on the right track... if not dead on the track.

I saw the hand-off phrase at 6 AM this morning. And thought it odd. But at that time the models hadn't bumped the forward speed up.

Also appears that the NWS Offices were caught off guard by the NHC's hand off phrase. I basing my comment off of what was sent out in the Morning AFD's.

Here's another angle. Hypothetical situation here: Ida increases forward speed just enough to miss the turn... We could then have a landfalling Hurricane with ONLY the western side of the landfall area being warned. OOPS

I'll leave NOAA alone.

.. If you are reading this from a location west of Appalachcola,FL to Grand Isle or Houma, LA.
Please keep a close eye or ear on the weather.
This situation is changing... to some degree every 3 to 6 hours.
So pack a few things and think about what you will do if a HURRICANE Watch or Warning is issued later today or tomorrow.
.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: danielw]
      #87221 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:53 AM

Whoops, sorry Daniel. I did not know anyone was responding to what I wrote and I thought I might have been pushing the boundary by questioning the watch areas so somewhat self censored myself. I do agree with your cautions very much (as it agrees with what I originally had up)

It is interesting looking at the AFD for my area. They seem to be going with the GFS solution which pulls the energy away from the area to the north and west. I have to wonder what might be different if there was not an NHC hand off. Then again, everything could change again at 4:00PM.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:03 AM)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: rgd]
      #87222 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:55 AM

Good Morning All. Good to be here. This is going right over Jack II and the newest oil/gas finds.

I've been watching Ida since Honduras. I just found out 5 minutes ago that it threatens LA.

It'll be interesting to see what SE LA does now. Cause they're still shell shocked from Gustav/Katrina
and SE LA is under a flood advisory not related to Ida.

" Must be a lot of pre-Discussion discussion at NHC."


Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:00 AM)


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CoconutCandy
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Hurricane Ida Nearing Cancun, Bordering on Cat 2, Eyewall Replacement Cycle Underway ?? [Re: danielw]
      #87223 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:02 AM

Good Morning All. It seems that Hurricane Ida is on a gradual intensification trend early this morning as it slowly approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

A fairly recent radar image out of Cancun is now depicting an improving eyewall signature, with strong reflectivities in the NW semicircle and somewhat weaker convection beginning to wrap all the way around the hurricanes' eye, whereas earlier it was quite open towards the SE.



Continuously Updated Doppler Radar Loop from Cancun as Ida Approaches

And it's little wonder that Ida should continue to intensify, given that it is over very warm waters of the NW-ern Caribbean and shear is still light to nearly non-existant early this morning. It fact, the upper-level wind flow seems even more conducive that it was 12-24 hours ago. A recent analysis of the 200mb windflow even seems to suggest a light *anti-cyclonic* pattern over the western semicircle, apparently enhancing the convection on that side of the hurricane, if anything.



As Bloodstar was commenting yesterday just after reconnaissance arrived and discovered 90 mph surface winds and the central pressure lowering to 985mb ...
Quote:

Well, Recon just found 90MPH Surface winds and a 985 surface pressure so far. no vortex message, but I suspect the storm is doing some pretty impressive deepening overnight.



I was also speculating while Ida was still a tropical storm, on her possible eyewall evolution overnight ...
Quote:

In the short-term, and especially judging from the small, compact size of the storm, it's entirely possible Ida could intensify substantially during tonight's convective max cycle.

Especially if the inner-core convection comprising the eyewall is deep and sustained enough throughout the night to negate the light shear currently over the system and it manages to close off a complete eyewall. If that were the case, a high-end Cat 1 or low-end Cat 2 Hurricane is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities!



Here are a series of 4 separate microwave images of Ida as it intensified from (1) a tropical storm with a re-developing yet still open eyewall yesterday, to (4) a potent Cat 1 hurricane approaching Cancun this morning, and bordering on a Cat 2.

Note that the eyewall *did* close off (2) while re-intensifying to hurricane strength, yet during the wee hours of the morning, the eye opened again (3), as the inner circulation became elongated and the overall deep convection contracted substantially in the southern semicircle, as seen on animated infrared and water vapor satellite imagery at the time. Perhaps Ida was still being partially disrupted by the light shear over the system?

At any rate, a complete eyewall has re-developed as seen in (4) and deep convection appears to be on the rise again in the eyewall and elsewhere too, as indicated by all the bright red reflectivities.



It'll be interesting to watch as Ida approaches the tip of the Yucatan today and see if it has just a tad more strengthening up it's sleeve, as hinted in recent discussions from the NHC. The eyewall signature, as seen by doppler radar from Cancun appears to be improving at this time as well, with possible indications of an attempted eyewall replacement cycle underway, but that is sheer speculation on my part.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:11 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Rasvar]
      #87224 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:03 AM

You make a good point. Since the exact time of transition or even the transition itself is unknown, it does not serve the interests of public safety to transfer responsibility to the local offices based on an assumed transition to extratropical with a system that is still forecasted to be of hurricane strength after that transition. It would be as silly as saying that future track forecast points beyond 10/00Z are not going to be the responsibility of NHC. At 10/00Z, while the system is still defined as tropical, the NHC forecasts TS force winds to extend 150 miles to the northeast. With that forecast, and if the track forecast doesn't change, a Tropical Storm Watch would be in order on the 3pm CST update (36 hours prior to the expected event) that would extend eastward to at least AQQ.

Everyone from Louisiana to north Florida needs to keep a close watch on Ida's track and associated weather.
ED

(edit-AQQ is Appalachicola,FL~danielw)

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:24 AM)


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87230 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:29 PM

Recon finding Ida's pressure down several mb since the last center pass at 5am CST this morning.

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danielwAdministrator
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Vortex Preliminary data [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87231 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:31 PM

I see a 974mb report from RECON and the wind speed appear to be in Category 1 range... still.

That pressure bothers me a bit as it gives a Max Possible Wind Speed of 1000-974=26+75= 101 mph.

The data that I'm seeing is closer to minimal Cat 1 Hurricane.

edit-actual vortex came in with a 978mb pressure so IDA is right at the Max Possible wind speed calculation of 97 mph.

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 12:43 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #87232 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:38 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 17:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 17:14:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°37'N 86°03'W (21.6167N 86.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (97 km) to the ENE (57°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,927m (9,603ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 73° at 90kts (From the ENE at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60° to 240° (ENE to WSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:11:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:18:00Z

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 12:39 PM)


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mwillis
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Eye Forming? [Re: danielw]
      #87233 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:05 PM

Looking at the JSL color image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?


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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87234 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:24 PM

I think that was the proper move extending the watch. I still have to wonder why it was not done initially. But that is neither here nor there. Ida is a cat 2 now. I am hoping that the end of the intensification is coming now. This is still a very tricky forecast beyond 24 hours.

--------------------
Jim


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rgd
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: mwillis]
      #87235 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:25 PM

It is not a eye forming.When you look at a loop you need to look at more then a few frames but it is still moving north north west if not NW yet right on course.

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MichaelA
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: mwillis]
      #87236 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:29 PM

Quote:

Looking at the JSL color image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?



Also appears to be doing that on the Vis Floater Loop. I'm hoping that is a temporary wobble rather than a trend, but there appears to be an eye feature developing to the NNE of the advisory position at 85.9 W; 21.8 N.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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kromdog
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87237 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:39 PM

I think everyone on the West Coast of Central Florida should keep a close eye on this storm. I am in Tampa and just left Publix. The only supplies people appeared to be buying were for their tailgate parties! It may be different if this was June - August. I think because it is November (Thanksgiving), some may be letting their guard down.

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rgd
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: kromdog]
      #87238 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:42 PM

It is not a eye feature taken in a whole loop not a few frames.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87239 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:05 PM

Just so fickle and the same steering currents that brought you today's spaghetti model mode brought you storms like Gordon:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Gordon_1994_track.png

Not comparing them in any way except when you see them in the history books and wonder...how did that happen.

November...

It's a very fluid situation. IF the front moves faster, if IDA moves faster, if one slows... yes this storm could theoretically make a hard right turn and create misery all across Northern and Central Florida.. but remember one thing...

Even if she turns fast to the right her storm surge and the dome of water she has shoved north will have to go somewhere and there will be flooding along the Florida Panhandle..

As for Tampa... it's not over til it's over.

She's a solid storm right now if you ask me..days away from talking anything but tropical!

And, think earlier she was stronger than 90...but that's just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MichaelA
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87240 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:08 PM

Subsequent photos reveal that it was not an eye, but possibly some subsidence that has now spun farther to the NE. The center of the CDO appears to be about 86.1W; 21.8N now.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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LoisCane
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87241 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:33 PM

Amazing angle... shows a lot of what is going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ft.html

I can't say for sure what it is.. I am not in a plane doing recon (wish I was) but know that from my perspective she is doing quite well.

And, system in West Gulf of Mexico acts like it is running blocking for her to make a play for the Gulf Coast.

Mind you I keep saying Pensacola.. but hard to say for sure.

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kromdog
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Re: November storms... [Re: LoisCane]
      #87242 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:35 PM

I agree. Obviously the GOM in November is not like the middle of Summer, but having lived in the Tampa Bay Area my entire life, I have seen some strange things with storms in our area. Ironically, smaller storms with a lack of preparation have caused the most damage. Those that live in our area will recall "The No Name Storm" that caused significant damage and totally caught everyone off guard.

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LoisCane
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Re: November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87243 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:44 PM

Yeah, you know as someone who has DEEP roots in Tampa... I was surprised at how easy going the Tampa Bay paper was... about this storm. I'd worry and keep up interest and talk on how hard storms like this are to predict as a storm in November would in theory ride a front into Tampa Bay... this is a different storm but its still a day or two away from a sure forecast.

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rgd
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: LoisCane]
      #87244 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:48 PM

I believe i told you that back a few posts people should watch loops not a frame or 2 and right away think this is a eye or trend.Yes all of us on the west coast of florida are watching it but that is just it watch.

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MichaelA
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Re: November storms... [Re: LoisCane]
      #87245 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:56 PM

I'm watching Ida's progress very closely. I think the uncertainty in the forecast beyond 48 hours is keeping folks from crying "Wolf!" just yet. I'm sure interest, in this area, in Ida will spike up tomorrow into Tuesday.

Edit: It appears that Ida has been moving due North the last hour or so.

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Edited by MichaelA (Sun Nov 08 2009 02:59 PM)


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tropicswatch
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Re: November storms... [Re: MichaelA]
      #87246 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:02 PM

The basic consensus 48 hrs. ago was for Ida to remain at tropical storm strength but here we are with a 100 mph hurricane. Our local mets also felt strongly Ida would remain a TS. The general forecast track has also shifted often from right to left over this time as well. Ida will probably continue to keep us all guessing until landfall.

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LoisCane
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Re: November storms... [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87248 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:08 PM

She's got warm water...moderate sheer and they are being way too conservative I think... she does not look like a cat 1 storm and she is going to stay nicely put together for a while.

wishing can't make things change...

classic set up actually

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

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Rasvar
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Re: November storms... [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87249 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:10 PM

I don't think the forecast track has been all that bad so far. It has been somewhat well behaved so far. Probably will behave for the next 24 hours. Unfortunately, intensity forecast is still low reliability. It has been troublesome in easy to predict storms as well as more complex systems like Ida. Just watch the cone and be ready, is the best thing I can say. I did my stocking of a mini-kit yesterday so I have enough to last a day or so without power. hopefully people will come back from weekend plans and get the news tonight so they aren't surprised tomorrow morning.

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CoconutCandy
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Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! [Re: MichaelA]
      #87250 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:12 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Looking at the JSL color image (link time sensitive) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?


Also appears to be doing that on the Vis Floater Loop. I'm hoping that is a temporary wobble rather than a trend, but there appears to be an eye feature developing to the NNE of the advisory position at 85.9 W; 21.8 N.




I was closely looking at that supposed visible eye feature also, but the 1km-zoomed animated loop from the NRL website helped me to conclude otherwise ...



It appeared *very convincing* for a few frames, with what appeared to be eyewall convection wrapping around this pseudo-eye. It looked even more convincing in the IR and WV loops. But the rapid speed that it was shunted to the NE revealed that it was not a visible eye after all.

And even though central pressure has dropped another 5 millibars, to 978mb, and sustained winds are now at 100 mph, there is still not a visible eye forming, although a well-established hurricane eyewall is very much there, tucked under a very solid and dense CDO. But you can still see 'convective turret penetrations' into the stratosphere in some of the more vigorous, deepest convection comprising the eyewall (the 'hot towers') which appear to quickly rotate around a common center, indicating where the 'center of the cylone' is approx. located.



As an aside, I surmised that Ida might make it up to a high-end Cat 1 or a low-end Cat 2 Hurricane after she left Honduras, even *before* she made her first landfall in Nicaragua. And NHC was forecasting Ida peaking out as a 45 Kt. tropical storm 'post-Honduras' at that time. Go figure? We can blame it on the models ability (or lack thereof) to handle the complex dynamics and vagaries of the late-season atmosphere, especially when shear (intensity & location) and impending extratropical transition are involved!

It certainly is worth repeating that late-season storms are notorously difficult to accurately forecast, especially intensity! And now, with Ida, we're looking at a great deal of uncertainty with the track AND the intensity forecast, all greatly complicated and compounded by the 'extratropical transition' fly-in-the-ointment factor.

Gotta' feel for the forecasters and emergency management personal during this rapidly developing storm situation. And it's going to get a lot more hectic before all is said and done and Ida is in the record books. Still much to transpire, though, so stay informed and if you live in the potentially threatened areas, for goodness sakes, be prepared well ahead of time!


Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:23 PM)


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kromdog
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Re: November storms... [Re: MichaelA]
      #87251 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:27 PM

Agree. Everyone is heading back to work tomorrow with a Holiday on Wednesday. We will start to hear from Emergency Management in our area over the next couple of days one way or the other.

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LoisCane
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Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87252 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:28 PM

I so feel for the forecasters...

yes... really....

and so true what you said..

"It certainly is worth repeating that late-season storms are notorously difficult to accurately forecast, especially intensity"

So... let me pose a question...

how does the continued convection in the NW GOM affect the interplay between IDA and the big front... if at all.

Think this is a key in whether it enhances Ida or it strengthens the frontal boundary...

Where is the front exactly?

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CoconutCandy
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87253 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:29 PM

In all fairness to Michael, his astute observations answered the question before I finished the previous reply.

Quote:

Subsequent photos reveal that it was not an eye, but possibly some subsidence that has now spun farther to the NE. The center of the CDO appears to be about 86.1W; 21.8N now.


Nice work!

...


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StormHound
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Re: November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87254 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:33 PM

Quote:

Agree. Everyone is heading back to work tomorrow with a Holiday on Wednesday. We will start to hear from Emergency Management in our area over the next couple of days one way or the other.




With a projected early Tuesday morning landfall, some areas of the coast should already be hearing from their emergency officials.

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Tazmanian93
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Re: November storms... [Re: StormHound]
      #87255 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:40 PM

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declares a state of emergency as a result of the
forecasted conditions of Hurricane Ida.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

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charlottefl
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Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! [Re: LoisCane]
      #87256 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:41 PM

The trough is coming out of the center section of the country, you can see it on WV, located roughly along a line form NW Texas up to the NE. It's there and moving East quick. It has yet to start digging south though. And as how our hybrid system interacts with it.. Well your guess is as good as anyones at this point..

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rgd
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Re: November storms... [Re: StormHound]
      #87257 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:43 PM

Winds are 100 and a more north track at the 4pm update father away from the west coast of florida


So a cat 2 system still moving nnw at 10 NOT NORTH but nnw and pressure is 976


22.2n 86.3w

Satellite imagery and radar data from Mexico and Cuba
suggest that the eyewall has become less organized during the past
few hours...which may be a sign that Ida is being affected by
ongoing southwesterly vertical wind shear.


Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:55 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: November storms... [Re: rgd]
      #87258 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:26 PM

Ida looks to be picking up more forward speed, and is erring a little east of the projected track, but not all that much according to recon Those in the watch area should be thinking of doing some prep work, and the rest of those in the Cone should be watching it closely. Ida could approach more rapidly than forecast.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: November storms... [Re: MikeC]
      #87259 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:46 PM

I was out this morning with Mike Watkins from HurricaneTrack.com over at Universal Studios when we found out about the Hurricane Watch. I know Mike Watkins left early to head to the Panhandle and Alabama. Mark Sudduth and the rest are opening the live video up to everyone for ida. Check it out over at hurricanetrack.com.

Direct coverage link.


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tropicswatch
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Re: November storms... [Re: MikeC]
      #87261 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM

Sort of surprised and a little excited to see some of Ida's outer bands showing up on Keywest radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Probably the most action they'll see thankfully.


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kromdog
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Re: November storms... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #87263 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:54 PM

Speaking of West Central Florida. All of the reports we are getting here at this point is that this is a Panhandle event. We generally say in Tampa/Clearwater that you are not out of the woods until the storm is North of your location, but most have seen some of the recent forecasts and a hook here and there....

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Storm Hunter
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Re: November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87264 - Sun Nov 08 2009 05:26 PM

Recon made pass threw center and heading outbound.. appears to have hit higher winds at flight level in the eyewall... atleast it appears to be a bumpy ride out

flight level winds 22.7N 86.1167W From 150° at 104 knots (From the SSE at ~ 119.6 mph)

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2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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OrlandoDan
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Re: November storms... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87265 - Sun Nov 08 2009 05:27 PM

Seems the most recent radar images are indicating a very small, tightly wound eye.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: November storms... [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #87266 - Sun Nov 08 2009 05:39 PM

did have higher winds outbound... pressure up.. thinking we seen the lowest were going to see with ida... appears to me shear is starting to work in and the storm maybe moving slight faster?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 22:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 21:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°28'N 86°19'W (22.4667N 86.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 97 miles (156 km) to the NNE (20°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,936m (9,633ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (167°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 256° at 85kts (From the WSW at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (164°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 190° to 10° (S to N)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:21:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:09:00Z
Displacement of SFC. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 7 nautical miles to the N (360°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:04:40Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
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Re: November storms... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87268 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:08 PM

Quote:

did have higher winds outbound... pressure up.. thinking we seen the lowest were going to see with ida... appears to me shear is starting to work in and the storm maybe moving slight faster?




Faster forward motion in this case may be a bad thing, since it means
1) less time to prepare
2) less time for the shear to rip Ida apart

It still looks like winds around very near 100mph from the recon report...slight pressure increase may not mean much in this case (too early to tell).
The satellite presentation is mixed to me - a bit lopsided but still impressive cloud tops.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
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Re: November storms... [Re: Hugh]
      #87269 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:20 PM

Faster forward motion also means if you're on the "dirty" side the forward speed is additive to the windfield itself, which implies that a strong Tropical Storm would have similar impacts to a Cat 1 hurricane, and so on.

Being potentially "under the gun" this would not be welcome.

--------------------
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Hugh
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Re: November storms... [Re: Genesis]
      #87270 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:23 PM

Quote:

Faster forward motion also means if you're on the "dirty" side the forward speed is additive to the windfield itself, which implies that a strong Tropical Storm would have similar impacts to a Cat 1 hurricane, and so on.
Being potentially "under the gun" this would not be welcome.




Precisely what I was thinking. Since I'm going to be on the northeast side of the landfall... this is not good news for me. Fortunately, I'm well inland and have gone through many, many hurricanes much stronger than Ida is now, let alone what it's forecast to be tomorrow. Still, it's not going to be a walk in the park.

FYI (news from "ground zero")... the local paper's website indicates that Hurlburt AFB (toward Navarre) went to Hurricon 3 at 10am, and Eglin went to Hurricon 3 "this afternoon". Eglin's website does not indicate that they've gone to Hurricon 3, though (could be they haven't update it, or that the paper's website is wrong). |
Update: Upon further reading, the same article says that Eglin expects to intiate Hurricon 2 sometime tomorrow. Hurlburt's aircraft are being evacuated to Fort Campbell, KY. Eglin's aircraft will be stored on base in available hanger space.

New recon (23:04:40z)...pressure up to 980, eyewall open east... hail and cont. lightning N quad.
6pm intermediate is out.. winds now up to 105.

Edited by Hugh (Sun Nov 08 2009 06:55 PM)


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Mag
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Re: November storms... [Re: Hugh]
      #87271 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:58 PM

Good luck to all who are in the direct path of Ida, I feel like this storm has been downplayed, and hope that everyone is ready. Quick question, I am over here on the east coast ( Merritt Island ) just south of the cape. Could I possibly expect some TS conditions ?

--------------------
Storms I Have Been Through

David, Gloria, Bob, Wilma, Fay


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danielwAdministrator
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Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87272 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:01 PM

Hail and lightning are indicators of a storm strengthening or deeping. They are bad news in Hurricanes just like they are in a severe thunderstorm.

RECON will probably find a pressure drop and possibly a eyewall replacement cycle at some point.

Based on previous Hurricanes with hail and lightning


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #87273 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:18 PM

It looks like Ida is starting to expand, maybe the first sign it may turn extratropical (or it could mean stronger hurricane), but still it's very tropical and is looking "better" tongiht. The pressure went up, but the winds may be higher because of the gradient effect. The eastern side is expanding for sure now, which is why I'm thinking that. The hail/lightning recon found could mean either rapid weakening or strengthening may occur.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: November storms... [Re: Mag]
      #87274 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:24 PM

Mag and others on the Florida Peninsula. This is a very strange storm and it probably wouldn't hurt for all of us to plan for a Tropical Storm.
Check local forecast on this website: Weather.Gov Place your Zip Code in the box in the upper left side of the page.


Things like battery powered radios,flashlights and other canned goods that won't go bad if you don't use them. The battery powered Christmas candles work great and you can use them anytime.
Just plan on the power or electric being out for 48 hours and you are good to go. If the power doesn't go out you have supplies for the next outage or you can share with someone who doesn't have power.

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 07:36 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #87275 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:36 PM

An expanding CDO in the central Gulf does not indicate a transition to extratropical in my mind - it indicates transition to a more powerful hurricane. There is a hint of an eye forming on the AVN loop now (it's not clear in the middle but a hole is developing in the super-high/black cloud tops). The expanding CDO and the rise in pressure make sense, when put together. Granted, I'm a bit biased since I'm in the middle of the path of this thing. I just don't see the shear that is supposed to rip it apart.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87276 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:44 PM

I agree. Saw the hint of an eye earlier. But ruled it out due to situation.

The flight level temperatures aren't consistant with what I normally see from Recon. Temp inside the eye is 17C and was 19C on previous Vortex Message.

GOM Eye temps are normally in the 20C plus range. Yes, I know this is November. Just seems rather odd. The whole storm seems rather odd...
Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles.

Even the Eye is smaller than normal... that's a Charlie or Wilma size Eye.


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rgd
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Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87277 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:44 PM

well hugh look at the chart and you will find it pretty easy.Also sher is already starting to take a toll and the water temps will vry soon also.Read jeff masters take on it seems to be right on.

Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 07:45 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #87278 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 PM

[quoteEven the Eye is smaller than normal... that's a Charlie or Wilma size Eye.




A small eye is also not indicative of a storm transitioning to extra-tropical is it? It's indicative of a stom that is about to get stronger, and potentially rapidly (remember how fast both Charlie and Wilma ramped up from minimal 'canes to Cat 4+).
Ida's pressure and current maximum winds say it's a Cat 2, but the eye structure, satellite cloud top levels and temperature indicate something much stronger. Of course, with the competing structures coming together in the northern Gulf, a strong pressure gradient is going to create some... unusual... wind levels. Maybe that is all that is transpiring. Still, I don't care what you call it, strong winds are still damaging, whether they come from a Cat 3 hurricane or an extratropical storm.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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rgd
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Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87279 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:58 PM

hugh read jeff masters take on it will make you feel alot better.I would post it but then it would get taken off.He talks about about the small eye and what to look for.


Looking at the latest loops really is losing a lot of deep convection in the last 30 minutes.

Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 08:30 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87280 - Sun Nov 08 2009 09:03 PM

School Closures starting to happen in the Panhandle, Escambia for sure. Going to get some news links up soon.


What are conditions in your area related to Ida? Let us know here
Have a guess, long range model analysis, or thought about where Ida will be going, let us know in the lounge.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Recon [Re: MikeC]
      #87281 - Sun Nov 08 2009 09:14 PM

Escambia County has issued some evacuations, according to WEAR TV 3.

Santa Rosa County has announced that schools will be OPEN tomorrow.

No decision yet on Okaloosa County. They are expected to declare a state of emergency in the morning, however.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Marvin
Registered User


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Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87282 - Sun Nov 08 2009 09:57 PM

Hurricane Warning posted for portions of northern Gulf Coast:

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Recon [Re: Marvin]
      #87283 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:02 PM

since we are just picking out parts only here ya go also.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ida is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Gradual weakening is forecast..


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: danielw]
      #87286 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:27 PM

Let's keep in mind many NWSFOs are updating their web servers as we speak and are switching over to systems which will enable redundancy; backup for their products.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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Genesis
Weather Guru


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Posts: 119
Re: November storms... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87287 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:39 PM

Okaloosa County has just posted a statement that the schools will be OPEN Monday.

They are assessing for Tuesday and will make their decision by noon tomorrow.

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: November storms... [Re: Genesis]
      #87288 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:49 PM

Quote:

Okaloosa County has just posted a statement that the schools will be OPEN Monday.

They are assessing for Tuesday and will make their decision by noon tomorrow.



Yeah, because they NEED to have kids out on buses trying to get home in the leading squall bands from a tropical system that could accelerate as it approches. Sounds like typical School Board BS to me. And I WORK for a school system. I have rarely seen what harm it does to close school JUST IN CASE. Why risk anything. Also, if there is a chance of rough weather late in the day, a lot of folks will keep the kids home anyways. Seems like too many taking this too lightly!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: South Florida
my question.... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87289 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:57 PM

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

When you look at all the moisture moving..merging from west GOM and with ida moving at what looks faster than what she is posted at going...and front is sort of high up but moving

what would really make her come out around st augustine vs say carolina...

that is the part i don't get as her fast forward speed would make me think rain will go up thru ga and out carolinas... don't see what bends her as the dry air in the atlantic is still pushing down and helping to push her futher north faster... i see the short range..not the long range

thoughts?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: my question.... [Re: LoisCane]
      #87290 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:28 PM

Quote:

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

When you look at all the moisture moving..merging from west GOM and with ida moving at what looks faster than what she is posted at going...and front is sort of high up but moving

what would really make her come out around st augustine vs say carolina...

that is the part i don't get as her fast forward speed would make me think rain will go up thru ga and out carolinas... don't see what bends her as the dry air in the atlantic is still pushing down and helping to push her futher north faster... i see the short range..not the long range

thoughts?




They've already issued flash flood watches here in the Atlanta Metro for Monday night through Wednesday. I have seen projections of 4-8 inches of rain which is the last thing we need here. 8inches of rain would be devastating here in Atlanta as the ground is still saturated. Even Lake Lanier is 1 foot above full pool

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Tropical Storm Ida? [Re: MikeC]
      #87293 - Mon Nov 09 2009 05:40 AM

Storm IDA: Observed by AF #304
Storm #11 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #11: 06
Date/Time of Recon Report: November 09, 2009 09:19:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 25 ° 23 ' N 087 ° 56 ' W (25.38° N 87.93° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3026 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 50 Knots (57.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 11 Nautical Miles (12.65 miles) From Center At Bearing 241°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 55 Knots (63.25 MPH) From 241°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 9 Nautical Miles (10.35 Miles) From Center At Bearing 138°
Minimum Pressure: 994 Millibars (29.352 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 13°C (55.4°F) / 3055 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 12°C (53.6°F) / 3026 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 2 °C (35.6°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: E06/25/15
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 74 KT NE Quadrant at 07:03:50Z
2: Maximum Flight Level Temp 13C 142/18NM FROM Flight Level CNTR
3: EYEWALL THIN WITH WEAK CONVECTION

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Tropical Storm Ida? [Re: berrywr]
      #87294 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:12 AM

Satellite imagery this morning depicts Ida being affected by 30 to 35 knot shear and convection rapidly warming around the center and there isn't much left of Ida to the west and south of her center and I wouldn't be surprised if in fact Ida is no longer a hurricane and may very well be undergoing extratropical transition as we speak.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 265
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Tropical Storm Ida? [Re: berrywr]
      #87297 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:41 AM

Very windy here in the Orlando metro area due to the pressure gradient. Low level winds are out of the east and bringing some spotty rain.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: November storms... [Re: Hugh]
      #87298 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:53 AM

The lightning and hail from last night was a good sign that the storm may undergo relatively rapid changes after several hours, and it looks like it was the precursor to the weakening, especially since it was on the northern side. That was the biggest hint I could find that foretold the way it looks this morning.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Tropical Storm Ida? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #87299 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:53 AM

Pressure now 997 mbs and estimated surface winds of 45 knots and current satellite imagery now has center virtually gone and now appears extratropical transition is now underway.

URNT12 KNHC 091138
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 09/10:59:40Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
088 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 3055 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 18 nm
F. 301 deg 51 kt
G. 210 deg 11 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 10 C / 3049 m
J. 14 C / 3046 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0611A IDA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NE QUAD 07:03:50Z
CNTR RAGGED
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60KT NORTH QUAD 11:14:00Z

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
09/11Z - Still a hurricane! [Re: berrywr]
      #87300 - Mon Nov 09 2009 06:59 AM

NHC is being generous maintaining Ida as a hurricane; they didn't incorporate the new vortex message into their latest intermediate advisory.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: November storms... [Re: MikeC]
      #87301 - Mon Nov 09 2009 07:26 AM

You can learn a lot here. I've always seen lightning and hail as precursors to a deepening system. Whether a Tropical system or NorEaster.

Now we know that they can be precursors to a weakening system also. Thanks, Mike.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: November storms... [Re: danielw]
      #87302 - Mon Nov 09 2009 08:19 AM

Yeah lightning and hail usually means rapid changes in the storm are coming, not necessarily strengthening, but usually that is the case. This time it was somewhat north of the CoC, which indicated some vertical shear was getting in the mix, thus creating the right conditions for the hail/lightning, it also showed that the shear was indeed coming. If it were right around the eye then it would probably mean strengthening.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Ida's last gasp? [Re: MikeC]
      #87305 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:42 AM

Looking at the last few frames of the rainbow IR loop, looks like Ida may be trying one last gasp at recovering. Although it could be an illusion. I will be interested to see how she is still classified at 10.

--------------------
Jim


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 265
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Ida's last gasp? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87307 - Mon Nov 09 2009 11:10 AM

The last frame of the IR AVN shows a nice little connective burst near the old center.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Ida's last gasp? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #87310 - Mon Nov 09 2009 12:02 PM

It sure looks like Ida is trying a Lee Corso "Not so fast, my friend." Not sure how much longer it will last; but there has been a nice convective burst north of the center. Environment is too sheared to get wrapped around, though. Might be her last tropical gasp before giving in to the cold side.

--------------------
Jim


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 242
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: MikeC]
      #87313 - Mon Nov 09 2009 12:33 PM

It seems that Ida may have one more surprise for us before making landfall later today.

After really having had the punch knocked out of her by steadily increasing upper level wind shear, and having a dramatic decoupling of the surface and mid-upper level circulations, Ida was reduced from a strong Cat 2 hurricane to just a strong tropical storm in a matter of hours, with all the deep convection sheared off to the NE while leaving behind an exposed low level circulation spinning and totally destroying the inner-core convection comprising the eyewall feature in the process.

But since then, there has been a very impressive mesoscale convective complex (MCC) re-forming directly over and embedding the once-exposed LLCC, shrouding it from view.



This does not appear to be at all the kind of 'shearing thunderstorms' we're all familiar with, with the thunderstorm anvil being quickly wisped away in a long, elongated plume of cirrus debris. Rather, this is very deep, sustained, dare I say 'bursting', convection that *does not* appear to be heavily sheared.

The storms are 'congregating' over the LLC, hiding it from view once again, while the cirrus tops just sort of 'bubble and perculate' above these very intense thunderstorm cells, with the debris cirrus gradually sliding off to the northeast in a huge, broad ice plume.

Quote:

Yeah lightning and hail usually means rapid changes in the storm are coming, not necessarily strengthening, but usually that is the case. ... If it were right around the eye then it would probably mean strengthening.




I agree totally. And if it is these supercells that are the source of the lightening strikes detected, then I'd be inclined to think that the storm could very well be making an attempt at re-establishing the inner core structure, and possibly, dare I say, *strengthen* again, or at the very least, maintain it's current intensity without exhibiting the gradual spindown we all were expecting.

If this convective trend were to continue for a few more hours, I suspect that the next recon mission might very well have something of a surprise waiting for them. This could be interesting if the MCC holds together for a few more hours at least, in the face of the shear, and attempts to regenerate into a healthy and viable storm once again. The odds are very much against it, but indeed, stranger things have happened !!

...

Edited by CoconutCandy (Mon Nov 09 2009 01:14 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87316 - Mon Nov 09 2009 01:14 PM

I think the 1:00 EST advisory shows this new burst. Pressure has fallen to 992mb, below the 993mb of the 7:00am advisory. Not sure how much longer this burst will maintain, though.

--------------------
Jim


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87318 - Mon Nov 09 2009 01:28 PM

Seems that too is being sheared off to the North. Of more concern to me is the "feeder" band on the East side which, if it persists, could sweep into the Tampa Bay area on Tuesday/Wednesday as Ida makes her easterly turn.

Edit: Ida seems to be "bursting." As soon as one burst of convection shears off, another forms near the center.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0

Edited by MichaelA (Mon Nov 09 2009 01:32 PM)


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 242
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87320 - Mon Nov 09 2009 02:06 PM

Although the cloud tops are warming somewhat from previously, the MCC over the LCC is managing to persist in the face of the shear. Yes, these storms are exhibiting signs of the shear too, but IMHO, does not appear to be 'prohibitive', thus allowing the storms to attain 'super size' proportions and devolop very deeply as well, with rather substantial very cold cloud tops still.
Quote:

I think the 1:00 EST advisory shows this new burst. Pressure has fallen to 992mb, below the 993mb of the 7:00am advisory. Not sure how much longer this burst will maintain, though.


The fact that they decided to give the nod to the very impressive outburst over the LLC and actually drop the central pressure by 1mb I think says a lot. Maybe I'm reading too much into it though.

When you say "... how much longer this burst will maintain", I assume you're referring to the entire event of this MCC forming over the LLC. As long as the storms are quickly replaced by new deep convection and the MCC feature persists, then it's likely Ida will at least maintain her current intensity for a while longer, instead of quickly spinning down, which would be the case were her LLC still be totally exposed for all this time.
Quote:

Ida seems to be "bursting." As soon as one burst of convection shears off, another forms near the center.


Good observations, but I think the term you're looking for here is "Cycling". Cycling of convection over a LLC occurs when new thunderstorms immediately pop up when previous storms are still in the process of dissapating. I prefer to reserve the word 'bursting' for individual supercells that develop explosively, attain great heights all the way to the stratosphere very quickly with convective turrent penetrations blasting into the stratophere, in some cases for hundreds or even a few thousand feet above the tropopause.

Yes, Ida's current display of this MCC over the center fits the bill perfectly for 'Cycling Convection', with each of the cells 'bursting' into existance and blasting all the way into the lower stratosphere.

Also, quite interestingly, you can now see on the Long-Range Doppler Radar from Mobile, the attempted formation of an eyewall structure. The eye is most certainly there, but only half the eyewall. And the intense, cycling convection we've been noticing on animated satellite imagery is that arc of intense reflectivities showing up in the NW semicircle on the radar.



It's trying to wrap around the clear center, but appears to be having a tough time in doing so, presumably because of the persistant shear. If the shear were not present, I think Ida would be making landfall as a solid Cat 2 or possibly a Cat 3 Hurricane. Thank goodness for the blessed shear! To the rescue once again!

Long Range Animated Doppler Radar Loop from Mobile

...


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 265
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87321 - Mon Nov 09 2009 02:15 PM

I too am wondering about the "feeder" band (if that is what it really is) coming on shore into the Florida peninsula. I see some pretty hefty convection going on due west of the tip of southern Florida. I would like to pose the question: What are the chances of this band carrying some tornados?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #87322 - Mon Nov 09 2009 03:06 PM

According to the Storm Prediction Center, only about a 5% chance.

Getting close

Mobile Alabama Radar Loop


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 242
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Tracking Ida's Inner Core: Doppler Radar Comprehension vs. Overlays [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87323 - Mon Nov 09 2009 04:03 PM

Interesting you should also post the long-range doppler radar link from Mobile depicting Ida's circulation as she makes her final approach towards landfall in a few hours.

I prefer my 'version' however, because I turn off (uncheck) all the overlays *except* "Radar" and "Counties", (especially important to turn off that darn pesky "Topo" layer!) to cut down on the visual 'background noise'. And it really allows you to focus on just the radar reflectivities. Click "rock" for a back-and-forth 'swing' effect and speed it up just a tad and you're set to go!

Just wanted to share this with everyone, if you're not already aware of the 'options' you have. I think folks will find it much easier to 'cogitate' what's really going on and more easily interpret convective trends of intensity and motion. Something about that back-and forth motion that really seems to make it more comprehensible. Good stuff to know about, in case ya didn't.




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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Ida Being Sheared Heavily [Re: MikeC]
      #87324 - Mon Nov 09 2009 04:39 PM

Recording a Gulf Shores webcam (with radar) at:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?72

Earlier recordings:

Cancun Radar pass of IDA
Cuban Radar pass of IDA - Note this was very distorted and wasn't reliable.



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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 242
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Ida Making Her Final Approach as a Strong Storm [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87331 - Mon Nov 09 2009 08:33 PM

Tropical Storm Ida is maintaining itself as a force still to be reckoned with as she makes her final approach towards immenent landfall, perhaps in the Mobile area.

Although much of Ida's circulation has long been sheared away towards the NE, and in the process steadily weakening it from a Cat 2 hurricane just yesterday down to a strong tropical storm, she's been very tenacious in hanging onto that maximum tropical storm status for quite a few hours now, despite the ever-present shear.

Complements of a strong and sustained burst of very strong thunderstorms (see above) over a low circulation center that had been previously exposed after the upper half had been sheared off, Ida was then able to, despite the shear, begin to rebuild it's inner core structure and nearly succeeded in doing so, redeveloping an inpressive looking eyewall feature as best displayed in the 85 GHz Microwave frequency band, one of my favorite tools for analyzing tropical cyclone structure.



You can easily see a fairly decent eyewall in the NW semicircle, presumably where the strongest thunderstorms are located, and the eye was nearly able to close off into a complete circular eyewall. Were it not for the continuing shear, it's likely Ida could well have regained hurricane strength.

But, as of this moment, Ida is still a solid top-of-the-line tropical storm with some inner-core characteristics of a low end hurricane. If you look closely at the image, you can also see Ida being tilted towards the NE, in the direction of the shear. The surface low (concentric light blue lines) appears to be lagging behind by some distance the very obvious pseudo-eyewall feature (bright red). The center of the surface low appears to be just SW of the strong convective band, and that would imply considerable tilt. And this is another deterrent from Ida being able to strengthen significantly, despite the large flare-up of bursting convection earlier in the day. So the shearing effect works in various ways to diminish the strength of cyclones.

Even though Ida is being strongly sheared and looks to be decidedly sub-tropical, she is still a true tropical storm, and likely won't make extra-tropical transition until sometime well after landfall.

It's worth repeating here that we can all be very thankful here in November that the shear once again came to our rescue and prevented Ida from becoming a major hurricane that might have targeted New Orleans. But the shear knocked it down in strength, ripped the top half off and sent it streaking away and gently pushed her away and to the right of the Mighty Mississippi.

So while this will be quite a good blow and some coastal flooding for Mobile and the Panhandle area, I do believe we dodged, yet again, what could have been a much more destructive situation. And it's a good thing there will be more Ida's to churn the oceans again one day, as this Ida will certainly not have her name added to the infamous list of retired hurricane names. And that's something we can all be thankful for.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Transition to extratropical? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87332 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:18 PM

It has gotten very difficult to discern a center on the radar. As best I tell, Ida has begun slowing and turning more easterly. It seems that she may be heading for a somewhat of a landfall at Florala on the Florida Alabama border. Although I am not even sure you can call it a center anymore. I suspect the wind field may be expanding now.

update: I can't find the COC on radar or on sat. Ida may be extratropical now. Or everything has been sheared away from the COC.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Mon Nov 09 2009 09:46 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87333 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:54 PM

The only thing I can explain it with is that the system has decoupled, there is one mid level center nearing Mobile and AL/FL border and the low level center looks to be southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. In that case it may never actually have a true "landfall" in the classic tropical sense. Will be interesting to see the 10PM EST Advisory.

Just a note, Most of the site was designed around EDT (Not EST) so a lot of times will say EDT When it should be saying EST. This is how rare November systems are.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #87334 - Mon Nov 09 2009 09:57 PM

Well, that would kind of fit with some of the models that were calling for most of the energy to split and go north with the front but leave a low to meander over Florida and the Gulf without much with it.

--------------------
Jim


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87335 - Mon Nov 09 2009 10:14 PM

Jim Cantore just mentioned this on the air as justification that the system is extratropical:

URNT12 KNHC 100235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 10/02:04:20Z
B. 29 deg 09 min N
088 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1400 m
D. 39 kt
E. 193 deg 33 nm
F. 251 deg 39 kt
G. 194 deg 35 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 14 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1519 m
K. 6 C / NA Dewpoint in the center of Ida is 43F! Not tropical in any manner.
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 39 KT SW QUAD 01:54:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND WND OCCURED DURING CONVECTION
;

--------------------
Jim


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87336 - Mon Nov 09 2009 10:45 PM

agree with above post... but appeared from what recon found along Al. coast was strong tropical force winds...
agree that 43F dew point at 5kft in the center is pretty much a sign the core is no longer in my view a "tropical system"... but looking at buoys to the south.. there is upper 60F dew points coming north... yes there at the surface... but a 43F dew point in the center is umm.. Whoa! Ida... this seems to be some kind of record?

PS: lastest vortex is 999mb
dew point 46F

based on data.. all warm windy wx is north of center.. between coast and center.... there still is some warm air trying to come up from the south

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Nov 09 2009 10:48 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Ida Landfall Overnight [Re: MikeC]
      #87339 - Tue Nov 10 2009 04:12 AM

Ida's low level center has been exposed for several hours and can be seen on IR satellite imagery and will be onshore within the next few hours. Shortwave number 1 is now phasing with Ida's mid & upper level remains and the complex system now has the appearance of a hybrid system and what is now shaping up as a dry slot to the east of Ida's LLC and the classic comma of a dynamic (extratropical) low. Models are coming into agreement with cyclogenesis forming off the coast of GA/SC as a second shortwave dives into the area and clears everything out.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87340 - Tue Nov 10 2009 04:47 AM

Okay, the vortex data message says 7C; it's wrong. I took a look at the dropsonde data and surface temperature is 23.4C and a depression of 0.2 and at 859 mbs 18.2C and a depression of 0.6; that is a dewpoint of 16.6 and if rounded it's 17C/62F. A simple typo!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: Rasvar]
      #87341 - Tue Nov 10 2009 08:39 AM

With all due respect to Jim Cantore and all others...

Vortex message dew points are not totally indicative of whether the system is a Tropical, extratropical or Hybrid system.
The spread of Temp inside eye versus dewpoint inside eye is more of a sign how the strom is performing.

Example from Major Hurricane Katrina in 2005 near peak intensity.

URNT12 KNHC 281825
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1755Z
B. 26 DEG 20 MIN N
88 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2242 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 140 DEG 160 KT
G. 050 DEG 22 NM
H. 902 MB
I. 14 C/ 3050 M
J. 29 C/ 3064 M
K. 6 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 1234/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A Katrina OB 05
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Interpretation from tropicalatlantic.com decoder:

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 29°C (84°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: danielw]
      #87342 - Tue Nov 10 2009 08:20 PM

I checked the entire message. XXAA are mandatory and XXBB/XXCC are signficant levels are represented by 11, 22, 33, 44, 55, etc followed by the millibar level. Within the XXBB data set I noted "21212" followed by wind data groups.

A quick tutorial; positive temperatures are even numbered; negative temperatures are odd numbered.

I've copy and pasted this snippit from below:

21212 00999 12513 11994 14013 22991 13523 33892 09525 44890 08016 55887 06512 66876 06015 77871 05513 88857 07011 99851 11007 11840 14506

00999 12513 is a wind group. A temperature of 12.5? What do we know about odd temperature groups? 22991 is 13523, 33892 is 09525, 44890 is 08016, 55887 is 06512, 66876 is 06015, 77871 is 05513, 88857 is 07011, 99851 is 11007 and 11840 is 14506.

A closer look at 99851 in the XXAA grouping is the 850 mb wind; they match, both a wind direction from 110 at 07 knots. The temperature at 850 was 19.6C and a dew point depression of 3.4 or a dew point of 16.2
At the surface the temperature was 23.4 and a dew point depression 0.2 or dew point of 23.2

Feel free to let me know what y'all think; thanks!

UZNT13 KNHC 100552
XXAA 60068 99295 70888 08198 99999 23402 12513 00512 ///// /////
92670 21203 ///// 85401 19634 11007 88999 77999
31313 09608 80543
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 2953N08881W 0545 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10517 998840 REL
2953N08880W 054315 SPG 2953N08880W 054520 =
XXBB 60068 99295 70888 08198 00999 23402 11859 18206 22850 19634
33840 19061
21212 00999 12513 11994 14013 22991 13523 33892 09525 44890 08016
55887 06512 66876 06015 77871 05513 88857 07011 99851 11007 11840
14506
31313 09608 80543
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 2953N08881W 0545 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10517 998840 REL
2953N08880W 054315 SPG 2953N08880W 054520 =

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 136
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: berrywr]
      #87343 - Tue Nov 10 2009 11:50 PM

Here is a little snippet from the Hypo MC advisories that I found interesting this evening -

Quote:

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR 60
MILES...95 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND 170
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.





The question is, redevelop as a stronger extratropical storm, subtropical system, or tropical system?


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vpbob21
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 87
Loc: Ohio
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #87344 - Wed Nov 11 2009 01:00 AM

Even though Ida is in the history books as far as being a tropical system, parts of the East Coast are still in for a rough go of it the next few days. The extratropical remains of Ida are moving east across the Florida panhandle. An old cold front is dropping into the Southeast. Then to the east you've got 98L that some models project will get absorbed into this whole mess. The result will be a sub-1000 mb low off the SE coast. Then you've got a 1030+ mb high sliding across the Great Lakes. When this high moves east to New York State the gradient is really going to tighten up from Cape Hatteras up to the Delmarva. With this setup expected to change only very slowly, it looks like we are setting up for at least a moderate if not major long duration coastal flooding event starting later tomorrow and possibly lasting into the weekend. On top of all that some areas may see up to 7 inches of rain.

From the Wakefield VA forecast discussion:

MODELS NOW COMING TOGETHER ON WHAT CUD END UP AS A SGNFCNT MARINE
EVENT ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN. VERY CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. UPSHOT WILL BE FOR A PROLONGED PRD OF NORTHEAST
(ONSHORE WNDS) SUSTAINED CLOSED TO GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
TO STORM FORCE BEGINNING LATE WED AND LASTING THRU LATE FRI.

WILL CONT TO CAP THE SEAS AT 15 FT FOR NOW...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QSTN
TO SEAS SEAS AOA 20 FT WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE.


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 136
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Transition to extratropical? [Re: vpbob21]
      #87345 - Wed Nov 11 2009 06:48 PM

The story about the storm has broken to the general public on CNN this evening. It is going to be a nasty mess when all of this is over.

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