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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Area of Interest - NE GOM [Re: berrywr]
      #87989 - Wed Jun 30 2010 08:00 AM

GFDL model continues to spin up a system in the NE GOM moving toward the BP Oil Spill area on July 4th.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/alex01l/fcst/archive/10063000/12.html

(I just moved all of the pieces of this under one thread in the same Forum, since they really had nothing to do with the 'Alex' thread in the Storm Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 01 2010 02:09 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Possible New Tropical Low along Gulf Coast?
      #88017 - Wed Jun 30 2010 03:02 PM Attachment (218 downloads)

NWSFO BMX made mention of the development of a surface low on the frontal boundary that is draped over the south. The front is to eventually be pushed to the northern GOM as a ridge over the central US builds south. Currently there is an upper low off the coast of FL and is expected to move west into the extreme eastern GOM. The 48 hour GFS at 12Z is depicting a surface low in the northern GOM. What has my attention is how plausible this is and the fact it is forecasted within the 5 day window which gives credibility that warrants looking at this evolving solution. I will have a better handle on this later this evening with the new 01/00Z package.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Wed Jun 30 2010 03:43 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Area of Interest - NE GOM [Re: berrywr]
      #88040 - Thu Jul 01 2010 02:24 AM

That is correct. For the past 24 hours and last three runs continues to indicate along a frontal boundary expected to reach the GOM in the next 24 hours will become stationary. Currently there is an upper low off the coast of FL; albeit weak. Models have the long wave trough cutting off and developing an upper low off the NC/VA coast . This upper level low is an extension of the long wave trough which continues to dig as it progresses slowly east in response to the upstream long wave trough crashing into the Pacific Coast amplying the downstream Mid-Continental upper ridge expected to be centered over the Midwest. Thee is some mention in various discussions about a tropical low off the Atlantic coast which given the location of the long wave trough off the Atlantic coast; not likely...whatever becomes reflected at the surface will begin as a cold core low. From it the longwave trough continues into the GOM parallel to the surface boundary. HPC discussion felt the GFS is the outlier and develops a upper low off the NC/VA coast in favor of it being the stronger system which it will be but I think after 3 runs it is time to pay attention to the E GOM in the next few days.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Area of Interest - NE GOM [Re: berrywr]
      #88043 - Thu Jul 01 2010 07:58 AM

From the morning AFD NWS Slidell,LA.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB FORMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LOCATION HAS SHIFTED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THE 00Z RUN
TODAY SHOWS THE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AS THE GFS BUT SLOWER. AM
FAVORING THE WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS MEANS
THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH DRY AIR PULLED SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
THERE WILL BE DRIER/HOTTER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHERN BORDER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID SOUTH AREA.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Area of Interest - NE GOM [Re: berrywr]
      #88049 - Thu Jul 01 2010 01:40 PM Attachment (201 downloads)

think this next four days will be somewhat active... will have a low pop up off this frontal boundary here in the NE GOM and if the NAM and few others are right... a tropical low in central carib. in less then 4 days.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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CLWeather
Unregistered




Re: Possible New Tropical Low along Gulf Coast? [Re: berrywr]
      #88050 - Thu Jul 01 2010 01:49 PM

Tampa Bay NWS does not like the idea of a low forming in the NE GOM:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
133 PM EDT THU JUL 1 2010

...THE GFS ALSO DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF/PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DUE TO THIS FEATURE (AND HOW UNLIKELY IT APPEARS TO
BE)...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD SOLUTION.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Possible New Tropical Low along Gulf Coast? [Re: CLWeather]
      #88055 - Thu Jul 01 2010 04:16 PM

The pounding of the moderate to heavy rain on the roof of my office in Ft. Myers got me out of my work mode and into what's next and how close is it?
Our current situation here is a 30.00 in barometer with heavy rain. The radar presentation is: cells over the peninsula are moving to the NW, but a large mass of rain is falling southward off the panhandle. The satellite presentation is confirmation that the TUTT which had been retrograding from the Bahamas is now sharper and extends down over Cuba. A cyclonic presentation is accompanying the cloud presentation over that island.
My reading from as many sources as I can consult is that overall conditions would support development, and the ECMWF solution, which I understood was to allow development south of Cuba in about a week was the model of choice.
However, it would not take much surface lowering of pressure given the current physical presentation near the west coast of Florida to get something going, in my humble and very uneducated opinion.

--------------------
doug


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