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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Quiet out there.
      #88525 - Mon Jul 26 2010 11:45 AM

The SAL has reached well into the Caribbean, but there is a moisture surge that came off the African coast a day or two ago. The "wave train" over the African continent has not set up yet, and there really isn't anything of note all the way back to the Indian subcontinent. In fact, it appears that the Arabian Sea has a fair amount of shear over it. It may be another week or two before the Cape Verde region starts to "heat" up.

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Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: Quiet out there. [Re: MichaelA]
      #88526 - Mon Jul 26 2010 12:46 PM

It may start to pick up around the 2nd week of august. At least tha is what JB with Accuweather is saying.

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Quiet out there. [Re: Jasonch]
      #88533 - Tue Jul 27 2010 11:41 AM

I think the start of the more active tropical activity will begin by the latter half of the first week of August-probably after the 3rd or 4th. Before then, however, I think the Eastern Pacific may see a system develop around the end of this month. If there are any areas to watch in the Western Atlantic before August, it would likely be along the ITCZ near Central and South America and to a lesser degree the GOM. The Caribbean is pretty shot, as far as being favorable for development, for the next 4-7 days until the SAL can cycle out more.

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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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