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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Hurricane Danielle
      #88994 - Sat Aug 21 2010 05:49 PM

Update: System back to Tropical Storm as of 24/21Z.

Update: System is Hurricane Danielle as of 23/21Z.

Update: System is Tropical Storm Danielle as of 22/21Z.

The overall structure of Invest 95L improved today and the system has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression in the eastern Atlantic. The system is located near 11N 32W at 21/21Z with sustained winds of 25kts and a pressure of 1008MB. Inital expectation is for movement to the west northwest to northwest. Because the system will be moving through an area of modest southwesterly shear, intensification could be slow on Sunday - but after that the system should intensify at a faster rate and reach hurricane strength late on Monday. The next name on the list this year is Danielle.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 24 2010 06:09 PM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 6 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88997 - Sat Aug 21 2010 11:07 PM

TD 6 maintaining a good overall appearance this evening with perhaps some increased convection starting closer to the center. Given this systems overall size and the fact that it has yet to fully seperate itself from the ITCZ, we might see a more westward near term motion than originally forecast. Regardless of whether TD 6 remains a little farther south in the near term, or even if models initiate with a more Westward motion, I do believe the 0Z model runs might shift slightly to the left. It would probably be prudent to NOT read much into this however.

At the point where TD6 consolidates and becomes fully detached from the ITCZ, its position and true motion will then be better defined. At such a time, perhaps 24 hours from now, the models will have a better handle on this system's sze, motion, and depth. Also, depending on whether TD6 deepens ( or how much ), will also permit the models to better and more accurately forecast a likely re-curve or potential greater risk to the Antilles. The next 24 hours' evolution of this system wil be very interesting to watch. Only after this additional period of formative development occurs however, should we concern ourselves with any real percieved shift in model guidance.

On an entirely different subject, there appears to be another impressive wave just about to emerge from the African coast.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 6 [Re: weathernet]
      #88998 - Sun Aug 22 2010 12:31 AM

Almost impossible to watch TD 6 with that new wave coming off... and some models have it on a more due west track which would be logical.

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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