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Archives >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2329
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Igor
      #89464 - Wed Sep 08 2010 03:20 PM

Invest 91L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Igor south of the Cape Verde Islands with sustained winds of 35 knots. Igor should move west to west northwest over the next few days - and rather slowly at first - eventually reaching hurricane strength in three or four days.

A modest southern jet extends from east of 60W to the west African coast above 21 to 22N - windshear is light below that latitude, so conditions should be good for additional development. At 50W the SST hits 29C.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2329
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Igor and the Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89527 - Mon Sep 13 2010 04:22 PM

Looking at the latest Water Vapor images from NRL Monterey, a non-tropical cyclone well to the north of Igor extends a cool front southward to about 30N creating a weakness in the ridge and therefore a decrease in steering currents. This weak front is pulling out to the northeast. Although this weakness has slowed Igor down, this trough appears too far to the north to pull Igor into a more northwesterly movement. A center of high pressure near 28N 60W is moving eastward ā€“ and at a much faster rate than Igor is crawling westward. A second trough extends south and southwestward to about 27N 70W. This trough is moving to the east northeast with the southern portion of the trough weakening as it aligns west-east. A large strong anticyclone is over Louisiana and has extended a strong ridge well to the east over the western Atlantic.

Although the trough to its north did slow Igor down, it did not alter the direction of motion and that trough is now slipping off to the east as the high pressure between the two troughs pushes eastward and should soon give a nudge to Igor and start him off again on a westward track that should become more west northwest as the high slips by to the north of Igor. So far, this has generally been what has been anticipated. The weakening of the base of the second trough and the development of the ridge to the east from the Louisiana high pressure center become the future factors that will determine the ultimate movement of Igor. Iā€™d anticipate that the second trough would at least enable the west northwest track to continue into Tuesday and Wednesday ā€“ perhaps even northwest on Wednesday ā€“ but if the ridge continues to build to the east, on Thursday and Friday the track could again resume more of a movement to the west northwest.

Its worth noting that currently, with the exception of Julia which has a west northwest motion, every system and wave within a couple of degrees of 15N from Mexico and Central America to West Africa is moving to the west.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2329
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Hurricane Igor [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89601 - Sun Sep 19 2010 11:16 AM

Large Hurricane Igor was located about 135 miles south southwest of Bermuda at 19/15Z moving to the north at 13 knots with sustained winds of 75 knots (Cat I). Igor should pass over or just to the west of Bermuda at about 20/04Z tonight as a Category I Hurricane. Bermuda will be under tropical storm force conditions until mid-morning on Monday and under hurricane conditions this evening into tonight. BWS has reported wind gusts up to 62 knots but those gusts are likely to exceed 90 knots later tonight.

Bermuda Weather Service Web Cam
Hamilton Weather Conditions

ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2329
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Igor [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89602 - Sun Sep 19 2010 05:13 PM

At 19/21Z, Hurricane Igor was located about 85 miles southwest of Bermuda moving just west of due north at 12 knots with sustained winds of 70 knots. Winds at Hamilton now gusting up to 69 knots. With the current motion likely to continue this evening it looks like Igor will pass about 125km west of Bermuda at 20/02Z later this evening, which will keep the strongest winds offshore to the west of the island. Winds on Bermuda should increase a little more as the center passes to the west - probably with gusts around 75 knots. Bermuda radar indicates that the constant rain should wind down in a few hours, but high winds are likely to continue throughout the night and into the early daylight hours on Monday.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2329
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Igor [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89605 - Sun Sep 19 2010 10:57 PM

At 20/0218Z Hamilton reported winds out of the south southeast at 59 knots (68mph) gusting to 81 knots (93mph). Pressure was 965MB (28.50 in). At 0255Z pressure was 964MB.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 19 2010 11:44 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Igor [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89610 - Mon Sep 20 2010 11:17 AM Attachment (212 downloads)

ED's report appears to be the Max Sustained wind at Hamilton, Bermuda. As the winds dropped off after that report and the pressure began to rise.

Midnight (4) Sep 20 78 (26) 77 (25) 28.56 (0967) S 59 light rain; blowing spray
11 PM (3) Sep 19 78 (26) 77 (25) 28.47 (0964) S 66 light rain; blowing spray
10 PM (2) Sep 19 78 (26) 77 (25) 28.50 (0965) SSE 68 light rain; blowing spray
9 PM (1) Sep 19 77 (25) 75 (24) 28.64 (0970) SE 52 light rain; blowing spray

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TXKF.html

Actual METARs from Hamilton. I don't know what the WMO abbreviation "BLPY" is for. I'll have to look that one up. "Spray shall be coded only as BLPY"
I guess that breaks down to BLowing sPraY-BLPY.

TXKF 200455Z 21040G51KT 2800 VCSH BR BKN014 BKN050 OVC140 27/24 Q0971 RMK R30/////R12///// PRESRR /
TXKF 200355Z 19051G68KT 0800 R30///// R12///// -RA BLPY 26/25 Q0967 RMK R30///// R12///// PK WND17078/01 PRES UNSTDY /
TXKF 200255Z 17057G73KT 0800 R30///// R12///// -RA BLPY BKN012 OVC050 26/25 Q0964 RMK R30///// R12///// PK WND 15081/18 PRESFR /
TXKF 200222Z 15059G81KT 0800 R30///// R12///// -RA BLPY BKN012 OVC050 26/25 Q0965 RMK R30///// R12///// PRESFR
TXKF 200155Z 14048G63KT 1600 -RA BLPY BKN012 OVC050 25/24 Q0967 RMK R30/////R12///// PRESFR /


Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 20 2010 11:26 AM)


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