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SW Caribbean disturbance w/ 50MPH winds and some heavy showers has a small area somewhat favorable before crossing into East Pac
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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2562
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD16 - Subtropical? [Re: danielw]
      #89788 - Wed Sep 29 2010 01:13 PM

Keep in mind that Guantanamo Bay is 343NM east southeast of the storm position - not exactly the best justification for a tropical cyclone. Maybe subtropical, but even that would be a stretch.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: TD16 - Subtropical? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89791 - Wed Sep 29 2010 03:05 PM

It looks like most of the rain shield that's along the southeastern coast of Florida will be offshore sometime tonight, and the heaviest of rain remains offshore. Inland will see spotty rain, especially if the frontal zone flares up more, but not torrents of it.

My best guess for a "center" is in the Florida straits halfway between Marathon Key and Cuba. roughly, 23.9N 81.0W that's right now, it probably will move again in two hours.

There is still a lot of energy in the Western Caribbean too, the rainfall in Jamaica and the Caymans may be worse today than it ever was. Also Eastern North Carolina is probably going to get the most rain from this.




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BracGypsy
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Cayman Brac' Cayman Islands 19.70N 79.84W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89792 - Wed Sep 29 2010 03:47 PM Attachment (386 downloads)

Wow what a site this is. BracGypsy here from Cayman Brac. Nice to meet all of you.

The winds have somewhat subsided here on the Brac due to Tropical Storm Nicole.. I received a note from our air-traffic controller earlier today, the note said the winds here on Cayman Brac were about 50.6mph with a little higher in gust. It blew a few signs over and we lost power for a bit over an hour and half. The winds have now subsided to less than half. The rain here was unreal all morning from around 10am' it stopped it's downpour around 2:10 pm, but still a light sprinkle now. The Rain Gauge showed on the 10inch mark. Lot's of rain here, the airport runway is on the flooded side, but they have that all under-control now.

It's nice to meet everyone. Just though I would let you guys know that there is a little 12 mile island 90 miles south of Cuba, called Cayman Brac. Seems the world sometimes forgets about us at times. I'm just here to remind you.
Take care.
Over and out:
BracGypsy


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 310
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: BracGypsy]
      #89793 - Wed Sep 29 2010 04:24 PM

Glad to have you here BracGypsy. Thanks for the first hand report from the Caymans. Those of us who follow hurricanes know EXACTLY where you are!!
Here in west central Florida, it is a beautiful day. A bit warm and humid with a pretty good batch of cumulus clouds, but no rain in sight yet and no real wind to speak of. I actually wish the storm was on a track more to the west because we need the rain. Looks like much more of an east coast/Bahamas event at this time. The frontal boundary DOES seem to be sagging southward again a little bit (from the north of us here) as it ocillates back and forth across us. Not hearing much about that 'secondary' system at this time....is that out of the models now?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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BracGypsy
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Cayman Brac' Cayman Islands 19.70N 79.84W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #89794 - Wed Sep 29 2010 05:55 PM

Poster: Lamar-Plant City.{Not hearing much about that 'secondary' system at this time....is that out of the models now?}

Lamar, I haven't been around this site long enough to find my way around yet. I am still learning about all this. But I checked the Secondary system out' it's showing on the NOAA site now, and there's another following that one too. The first one says it's a Tropical wave over the central Atlantic' located about 700 miles from the Windward islands. It also says there's only a 10 present chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The second System says about the same other than it's 850 miles from the Windward islands.

I like to keep up with hurricanes since this little island seems to attract them. The Brac was hit really bad on November 8th 2008 with a hurricane called Paloma. Some of us are still rebuilding from that one. It was a Cat 4 with Cat 5 in gust. When that monster got through with us, this little island looked as if a A bomb when off on it. About 95% of all homes an buildings here' either lost all their roofs, and walls or parts. About 95% of all electric polls when down. Most of the island was without electric power for over 4 months. We had electric generators running for all that time" plus'. We have here 1500 population. What a mess that hurricane was, So I can't think of anyone here who really cares to see another hurricane. Check online google, "Paloma" hit Image. There's still photos up of the devastation here. We are thankful no one was killed.

What was so strange about Paloma' was' after it hit here, not many media news picked it up, and the world around us didn't know about what had happened here. Seems most all news medias didn't get to much news about Paloma hitting here' so what was said was very little. My parents live near Ocala Fl. They didn't hear anything on the news for 5 days. We couldn't call out because cell towers were down and landlines were out also. We are a British Colony and as soon as the winds subsided enough the British War ships were here helping the needy. Three months pry to Paloma we were hit again by a Cat 3 called Gustav. That one was a nasty one too, but not half as nasty as Paloma. It's not a good feeling when you see and feel your home flying apart around you. AND there's nothing you can do but hope you don't fly with it. That's another story that would make this story a lot longer if I took the time to write it. LOL Maybe later.

Thanks for the welcome Lamar. Nice to meet you.
Take care.
BracGypsy!

Edited by BracGypsy (Wed Sep 29 2010 06:06 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: BracGypsy]
      #89795 - Wed Sep 29 2010 06:15 PM

HI, BracGypsy! I worked at Cox Lumber in St. Petersburg, FL for six years. Went to Grand Cayman for inventory twice. Nice to have you logged on here.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: BracGypsy]
      #89796 - Wed Sep 29 2010 06:22 PM

I'm not so sure that there isn't some kind of circulation just North of the Brac/Little Cayman this evening. That may just be a passing feature, though in the total area of mess that Nicole has become.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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BracGypsy
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Cayman Brac' Cayman Islands 19.70N 79.84W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: MichaelA]
      #89797 - Wed Sep 29 2010 06:44 PM

Nice to meet you too MichaelA.

I know Mr. Linton Tibbetts very well, and Mary his Daughter. I just ordered a container full of building materials from Cox in Tampa. The barge just landed it 4 weeks ago here. I see Linton a lot here on the Brac. He spends a lot of time on Little Cayman, he has a home there, and one here too! He's from here on the Brac. Good man.

Your right about that there's some kind of circulation just North of the Brac/Little Cayman this evening. It's been nasty. I was outside at my office when it started gusting high winds and rain really bad, about that time I looked up and the Jet was landing in that mess. I held my breath hoping it wasn't making a mistake in landing then. The runway was partially flooded earlier, but it's Ok now or it wouldn't have landed. All I could hear was the engine screaming to a stop.

I guess now it's time to keep my eyes on the other two nasty systems that's southeast of here. What do you think those two will do?

Nice meeting you.

BracGypsy!


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: BracGypsy]
      #89798 - Wed Sep 29 2010 07:49 PM

Too early to tell whether either of those systems in the Atlantic will develop or not. The models haven't locked onto them yet. The one closest to the Caribbean is the one I'd keep an eye on since it is entering the area that is climatologically more conducive for development for this time of year.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2562
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: MichaelA]
      #89799 - Wed Sep 29 2010 08:31 PM

Actually the smaller system southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has a slightly better chance for development - but only slightly. The system closer to the Islands is encountering northwesterly windshear.
ED


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Orion1962
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: 27.49N 82.47W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: MichaelA]
      #89800 - Wed Sep 29 2010 08:38 PM

Ya know, Michael...any way you slice it, both areas of interest are a long way off from Cont US interests (not discussing Barbados and such) so getting excited yet only wears people down when they DO need to be concerned. Your thoughts?

JW
Hurricane Hunter
MacDill AFB


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89801 - Wed Sep 29 2010 08:51 PM

I saw that shear, but the area is somewhat more active. With cold fronts and their troughs now getting farther south, just about anything forming in the Atlantic is likely to be turned away from CONUS. I was replying in regards to the location of the Cayman Islands. I'm not overly concerned about either Atlantic area right now, but remain watchful never the less.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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