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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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vpbob21
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Ohio
First STY of West Pac Season to Hit Philippines
      #89904 - Sun Oct 17 2010 01:19 AM

What has been an extremely quiet season in the Western Pacific has been rudely broken as a very dangerous system has formed. Supertyphoon Megi formed SW of Guam a few days ago, tracked west and then northwest and is now due east of the northern tip of Luzon Island. A strong ridge has moved north of the cyclone and is pushing it south of due west at about 14 mph.

Northern Luzon island figures to take a devastating hit from Megi. The JTWC believes it may increase in strength to 145 kts, and looking at the improving satellite presentation, I think even that may be a little conservative. Landfall looks to be in about 24 hours and probably in southern Cagayan province or perhaps northern Isabela province. The JTWC has had the track over this area for several days so hopefully people should have had plenty of time to get out of low-lying areas.

Crossing the island will take a lot of steam out of Megi but it should still be a solid typhoon when it re-emerges over the South China Sea. It will likely restrengthen and reach the end of the ridge forcing it to turn northwest. Folks along the south coast of China west of Hong Kong are really going to have to watch this as Megi will likely be approaching the coast in about a week.


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: First STY of West Pac Season to Hit Philippines [Re: vpbob21]
      #89907 - Sun Oct 17 2010 03:35 PM

Such a juxtaposition this super typhoon highlights: Approaching a hyperactive season in the Atlantic, and basically a record low season in the Pacific from west to east; and yet, not a single hurricane has made direct landfall on the US, so far.

Stats:
Western Pacific Typhoon Season

GCACIC Average: (1950–2000) 31 TCs 27 Storms 17 Typhoons
JTWC 2010 YTD: 12 TCs 11 Storms 5 Typhoons

Stats:
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA Average: 15.3 Storms 8.8 Hurricanes 4.2 Majors
2010 YTD: 7 Storms 3 Hurricanes 2 Majors

Now along comes Megi in the Western Pacific, and it looks on track to roar into the Philippines at what we would call a Cat 4 or Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

This truly shows that it is never just about the number of named storms, hurricanes and majors, but rather, where they go, that dictates the impacts of any given season.

That old saying, "It only takes one."


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2281
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: First STY of West Pac Season to Hit Philippines [Re: cieldumort]
      #89908 - Mon Oct 18 2010 12:52 AM

Super typhoon Megi started to make landfall on the island of Luzon in the Philippines at 18/03Z. Winds were sustained at 145 knots (about 165mph) with gusts to 175 knots (about 200mph) and a recently measured central pressure of 885MB. If the pressure reading did not change prior to landfall, Megi will set a new record for lowest pressure at landfall. The Great Keys Hurricane of 09/03/35 had a pressure of 892MB at landfall.

Added: At 18/04Z Megi had moved inland and the pressure had increased to 914MB.
ED


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