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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Richard
      #89933 - Thu Oct 21 2010 12:14 AM

Invest 99L develops into Tropical Depresion 19, currently quasi-stationary and located about 125 miles south of Grand Cayman Island. Slow intensification and a slow anticyclonic turn are probable over the next day or two. Weak steering currents will gradually become southeast as a ridge builds to the north to northeast of the system, however, based on the timing for the developing ridge, the long range track is still uncertain. The next name deep into this year's list is Richard - like Paula, another name that has never been used before.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 21 2010 10:02 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Richard [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89941 - Thu Oct 21 2010 10:12 AM

NRL has upgraded their site to reflect 'Richard' so it looks like NHC is indeed going to name the system this morning. A little surprising since the recon only found maximum flight level winds of 30 knots. I'd also anticipate a more northerly adjustment to the long range track. Note that the GFS depicts a significant upper level pattern change in the GOM in about 4 days. If that pattern change verifies, the wind shear in the Gulf will decrease considerably as the speeds decrease and the direction becomes more southwesterly.
ED


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Area of Interest - Richard [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89942 - Thu Oct 21 2010 10:25 AM

Ed, there will be a change in the weather pattern as the trough over the east lifts out and is replaced with a strengthening upper ridge; a pattern typically seen in the middle of summer and something we haven't seen around here in a while...a "Bermuda" ridge. I'm not going to speculate on track until it clears the Yucatan. I do believe a more northerly track is likely given the strength of the ridge in the upcoming days. As of this typing, I haven't looked at the entire 12Z ensemble; I'm out of town this week, however I will look at today's and tonight's data and get with you later. Now...everybody else...please keep all the nightmare scenarios to a minimum. I have no idea where it's going when at best we're still several days away from grasping when and where. Is it likely there will be a landfall in the USA; yes! It has to be remembered that the SE USA and FL have been quite cool of late and dry with many areas are experiencing varying levels of drought. It is expected SSTs near the coast will be equally cool. We're about 72 hours away from knowing when and where in broad strokes.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Area of Interest - Richard [Re: berrywr]
      #89946 - Thu Oct 21 2010 11:44 AM

It is true that air temps have been a bit lower than normal and we have definitely been drier here in Central Florida the past several weeks, but there is still heat in the water. Just checking a couple of buoys with water temp in the Gulf shows the following:

Station 42036 (106 miles WNW of Tampa water temp 77.5 F
Station 42003 (208 miles W of Naples water temp 80.2 F
Station ID: 8724580 in the Keys has a water temp of 79 F
Station 42039 (115 miles ESE of Pensacola has a water temp of 78.1 F

These are borderline hurricane temps, but with the right weather pattern, they can support a decent system over the short term. And temps/humidity have been on the rise this week and will continue into the weekend. (highs in the mid/upper 80s through mid next week).

We could actually use a good rain event as these has been almost zero rain for the past month. Keep us posted as this seems to be developing into something we need to watch closely (no doomsday here...just caution).

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Area of Interest - Richard [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #89947 - Thu Oct 21 2010 11:53 AM

Yes, Central FL needs some rain. In the Tampa Bay region, we are on the negative 7" side of normal since the beginning of September. A strong TS or weak hurricane would bring some much needed precip to the region and still be mostly an inconvenience for a couple of days. It's still too far away, timewise, to get overly concerned, though. Just need to be aware and watchful.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Richard [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89963 - Sat Oct 23 2010 10:29 AM

TS Richard located near 16N 83W at 23/14Z moving slowly to the west with sustained winds of 45 knots. System is slowly becoming better organized and central pressure is down to 1000MB. Richard should move along the north coast of Honduras toward Belize with landfall likely later Sunday evening either as a strong tropical storm or a weak Cat I hurricane. High pressure to the north should maintain a track to the west to west northwest - it is becoming less likely that the storm will make it into the Gulf. I suspect that a Hurricane Warning will soon be issued for Belize.
ED

Weather at Belize City


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