Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tomas Close to Jamaica [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90071 - Thu Nov 04 2010 07:34 PM

the "center" seems to be moving towards cuba and a fast date with that frontal boundary

course it has multiple centers i suppose at different levels so there is weather everywhere

either way.... thought the cone would be shifted at five to allign better with model support

a lot of rain, really a lot of rain

could have been much worse

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tomas Getting Stronger [Re: LoisCane]
      #90072 - Fri Nov 05 2010 12:17 AM

The 05/03Z NHC update did adjust the track a little to the right - and straight through the passage without landfall. The 05/00Z GFS is now coming in and it too takes Tomas straight through the passage between Cuba and Haiti. Tomas has indeed developed a better structure this evening and if the center stays over water Tomas could get up to hurricane intensity again.

ADDED 05/0440Z: Perhaps feeling the influence of the rapidly approaching front, Tomas has moved almost due north again over the past couple of hours. This increases the likelyhood that Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is going to experience the brunt of the winds in the early Friday morning hours.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 05 2010 12:48 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Tomas Getting Stronger [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90073 - Fri Nov 05 2010 02:28 AM

Full latitude trough is beginning to encroachi on Tomas outer west circulation. The upper level environment over Tomas is as good as its going to get with an upper ridge axis centered near the SA coast to its south and decreasing shear tendencies to its north. For the past 48 hours the NOGAP has been consistent with Tomas becoming decoupled and other models are now joining it with this scenario, however it doesn't appear its low level remnant will in time move back to the southwest and dissipate in the open AO.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Tomas Getting Stronger [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90074 - Fri Nov 05 2010 02:37 AM

Quote:

The 05/03Z NHC update did adjust the track a little to the right - and straight through the passage without landfall. The 05/00Z GFS is now coming in and it too takes Tomas straight through the passage between Cuba and Haiti. Tomas has indeed developed a better structure this evening and if the center stays over water Tomas could get up to hurricane intensity again.

ADDED 05/0440Z: Perhaps feeling the influence of the rapidly approaching front, Tomas has moved almost due north again over the past couple of hours. This increases the likelyhood that Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is going to experience the brunt of the winds in the early Friday morning hours.
ED




Relative to movement, the strongest side of a tropical cyclone is its east and south side. A more consolidated Tomas will most definitely lessen the impacts to Haiti and the DR but the wind is not the deadliest aspect of this system; it is the rain.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tomas Getting Stronger [Re: berrywr]
      #90075 - Fri Nov 05 2010 11:43 AM

"Relative to movement, the strongest side of a tropical cyclone is its east and south side."

Thats a little bit like preaching to the pastor - and not correctly stated. Relative to movement, the strongest sector of a hurricane is normally the right forward quadrant in the northern hemisphere. When the original post was made, the movement of Tomas suggested that landfall was possible over extreme eastern Cuba - where Guantanamo Bay is located. The post made no mention of rain - just the location that might experience the highest winds.

The core of hurricane force winds associated with Tomas only has a radius of 15 miles - quite small - so the only land areas that could possibly experience hurricane force winds are extreme eastern Cuba and Grand Turk island.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Tomas a Hurricane for the 3rd time! [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90080 - Sat Nov 06 2010 09:21 PM

Tomas regains hurricane strength for the third time in its life; wow!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 21986

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center