Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Storm Tomas now weakening and moving west at 12 knots in the Caribbean Sea well south of Puerto Rico. Moderate to strong southwesterly windshear has decoupled the low level and mid level circulation centers. Wind speed currently listed as 55 knots but in reality satellite suggests that the actual speed is likely to be lower. maintains Tomas as a weak TS for the next couple of days but it is worth noting that the SHIP model lowers the intensity down to TD status. Windshear should relax in a few days and allow for some restrengthening. A strong turn to the north is still projected for mid to late week, however, if the system weakens more than currently anticipated it could move further west in the lower level flow before making that turn.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Storm Tomas continues to move westward in the central Caribbean Sea - currently north of Columbia and intensification is still expected - perhaps rapid intensification later on Wednesday. At 31/15Z, the westernmost point in the forecast prior to the anticipated northerly turn was 73.5W longitude. At 01/15Z that westernmost point was 74.8W and at 02/15Z that point is now 76.0W as Tomas continues westward.
Given this extended westward push and the expansion in storm size over the past 24 hours, tropical storm force winds are becoming more probable over eastern Jamaica and Haiti in less than 72 hours and perhaps over eastern Cuba and the western Dominican Republic later on Friday. Increasing likelyhood for heavy rainfall and hurricane force winds over Haiti on Friday and Saturday.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The structure of Tomas looks really strange this afternoon on the sat pics. Seems to be interacting with the moist area that was West of it yesterday while the convection that was East of the center has caused a gust front moving from west to east, east of the system. The cold front and long wave trough is beginning to move southeastward across the GOM and does look like it will be picking Tomas up on late Wed or Thursday, unless Tomas remains far enough south to avoid that. That would imply that Tomas would continue to the west and impact Central America to me.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 03/05Z a circulation center is not discernable from satellite imagery and a few hours earlier an ASCAT pass showed no center. Residual shear and dry air entrainment from South America may have disrupted Tomas to the point where it can no longer recover - which would be excellent news. No way to know for sure until visual satellite confirmation later this morning.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I agree. It looks like it's falling apart.
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Michael
PWS
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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It looks like a depression and it is as of 5 am. They're sampling the environment this morning and it will be incorporated into the 12Z run later. Keep an eye for the possibility of rotating vortices on visible satellite and the possibility of a new center farther west where shear is quite light and closer to an upper ridge at 200 millibars and broader anti-cyclonic flow over a broader area which is showing up on satellite with fairly good outflow to the north; however, you don't have to go much farther west and north to find hostile shear. I didn't find anything to disagree with in regards to the 5 am discussion and evidence is now leaning on Tomas being left in a COL near Haiti with the long wave trough on the east coast and a large upper level low near 25N and 50W day 5 and a ridge axis between the two. I can't state this enough the real threat Tomas is to Haiti. The Weather Channel has Jim Cantore reporting from Haiti now.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Tomas being left in a COL is not a good situation either. Lots of possibilities/ probabilities for rainfall with all of the situations for Hispaniola. And rainfall is something they don't really need right now with a Cholera outbreak.
Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 03 2010 08:31 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Visible satellite images this Wednesday morning suggest that Tomas is a rather fragile and disorganized Tropical Depression. A circulation center seems to be developing to the northeast of the 03/15Z position near 15N 75W. Recon is scheduled to investigate the area in a couple of hours which should confirm whether or not a center exists. If the center does reform more to the northeast, Tomas would have a greater rainfall impact on Hispaniola and less of an impact on eastern Jamaica. Intensification back to a tropical storm is still possible.
ED
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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ED is right on target with his location. 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...CENTER OF TOMAS RE-FORMING FARTHER NORTHEAST...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
RE-FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. AT
200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS COULD APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
Image courtesy of Google Earth
Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 03 2010 02:44 PM)
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