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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TS Gert Forecast Lounge
      #91259 - Fri Aug 12 2011 09:40 AM

Invest 94L located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is moving southwest at about 10 knots. I'd give it about a moderate chance for additional development and it could become the most interesting of the four Invests that are currently active.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 14 2011 05:29 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91261 - Fri Aug 12 2011 10:05 AM

Quote:

Invest 94L located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is moving southwest at about 10 knots. I'd give it about a moderate chance for additional development and it could become the most interesting of the four Invests that are currently active.
ED


It appears that 94L is being sheared NE to SW to me. That will certainly inhibit any significant development in the near term.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91266 - Fri Aug 12 2011 03:41 PM

The LLC is moving almost NNW while the lower part of the system, where the energy is, is moving WSW. Not much to get excited about on this system.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91278 - Sat Aug 13 2011 09:08 AM

94L looks to be the most viable system this morning with convection firing up very near the LLC. There is dry air to its NW though, which may be an inhibiting factor to significant development. Yesterday's convection has moved farther to the SW with the upper air wind max and looks like it should be watched as it heads toward the Caribbean, but I don't expect much from it considering the shear.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91281 - Sat Aug 13 2011 03:52 PM

Invest 94L has a well defined low level circulation located at 27.4N 60.8W at 13/19Z. The low is moving to the west and convection is starting to develop on the eastern side of the circulation. On the negative side for development, a large SAL area is to the immediate west (and north) of the system.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91289 - Sat Aug 13 2011 11:29 PM

Invest 94L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 7 - located about 360 miles south southeast of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda since additional intensification is expected. Movement could be erratic with some influence from Invest 92L (which is showing some signs of stronger convection and better organization this evening).
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TS Gert Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91293 - Sun Aug 14 2011 05:30 PM

TD7 is now TS Gert - and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Bermuda.
ED


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