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Invest 95L off African Coast is Unlikely to Develop - Rest of Basin is Quiet.
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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weathernet
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Irene Forecast Lounge
      #91345 - Thu Aug 18 2011 10:51 AM

The Atlantic wave at about 40W this morning, has now been officially tagged as 97L. Currently the air to its north and west remain dry as the system briskly treks westward. Of particular concern however is that the MJO pattern is to soon shift, so to favor the Atlantic and I believe that the Saharan dust layer will abate significantly as this occurs. Noticing the water temp charts, the center of this rather broad envelope system is presently over 27 degree ( C ) water, and by the time it reaches 50 W., will have moved over 29 degree ( C ) water temps.

The GFS model support for this particular system has been persistant, to say the least. 7-9 days off should not be looked too as a reliable reflection of "what will be", however one cannot ignore the persistance in the run after run forecast of a significant hurricane potentially impacting Florida. Of greater interest however, would be the most recent 0Z run of the Euro which now somewhat matches the GFS long range forecast track and for the first time with this particular disturbance, shows intensification as well.

This system does not look to be any threat for any near term rapid development, yet may be a depression or Tropical Storm as it moves over warmer water in its approach to the Leeward Islands in a few days. Greater than the threat of possible US impact, might be the manner of relative quick intensification that the long range maps depict once 97L possibly nears Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and/or the southeasternmost Bahamas. The fact that this Atlantic Hurricane season has thus far only "pumped out" Tropical Storms and all the while, none thus far have reached Hurricane status, might be far more indicative of prevailing upper level conditions and especially the dry air in place. As we now move into the "meat" of the season, those conditions are likely to abate.

(Since long range model discussions belong in the Lounge, this is a good post to start that thread.)

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 20 2011 06:41 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91347 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:11 AM

The large wave area in the Central Atlantic was designated 97L today.

This GFS and Euro models for the wave in the Atlantic has been persistently moving toward the US east coast, but particularly Florida, Gulf, and South Carolina for the past several days. And the trend continues this morning. With the latest 6z GFS bringing it in near Key West on August 27 after it traverses the northern Caribbean.

Since it may travel over the islands it may be weakened by then.

The euro isn't solid on development (destroys it based on land interaction), so another weak system crossing the Atlantic westward seems the most likely at the moment, and will be one to watch for late next week, but by no means is it a definite danger to Florida. Those in the Caribbean will want to watch it very closely however.

It's something to monitor, but without a developed system you have to avoid the hype, and it seems more likely that the system will head further westward and may be able to enter the Gulf or stay in the Caribbean as based on some of the other models.


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stormtiger
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91350 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:40 AM

To date the trend has been our friend, storms have not deepened and we've watched the models over rate system after system.

However, as it has been pointed out climatalogically the meat of the season is here. The set up is changing and this wave could be the real deal so it needs to be watched.

The GFS has it fairly weak until the Carribean where it shows intensification and a bout with Hispanola or Puerto Rico depending on the run you look at. The upper air pattern on both the GFS and the Euro indicate a weakness over Florida in 5 days or so.

Of course it's early, all we have is a broad unorganized wave and things will surely change. The pattern is of concern and everything else is speculative right now. For instance, the islands could tear apart whatever is there.

I think we'll get a better idea of conditions this weekend.

Edited by stormtiger (Thu Aug 18 2011 12:34 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: stormtiger]
      #91355 - Thu Aug 18 2011 05:18 PM

Let me remind everyone that the models consistently did NOT intensify Emily even though it looked to everyone watching like it should have, so the models haven't been bullish on all the systems. The fact that the GFS has been consistent in several runs is significant

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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stormtiger
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91357 - Thu Aug 18 2011 06:10 PM

I believe the GFS and the Euro both are of major conccern for the US.

But there is plenty of time to watch and observe.

So far it is August 19th and we have had no hurricanes; yet we have had 7 named storms. That is not likely to change in the near term.

The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 14th. While we have had a lot of storms the birth of the first hurricane will in all probability be a week late maybe more.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: stormtiger]
      #91358 - Thu Aug 18 2011 07:38 PM

Conditions appear ripe for a change in the north Atlantic and SSTs are on the rise. The GFS has been fairly reliable so far, but it is still to early to tell. I would expect by Sunday the models will have a better grip on this.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91361 - Thu Aug 18 2011 09:23 PM

Based on the current track. 97L should encounter 29C SST's near 49W. Or late tomorrow. Four of the 7 Intensity models bring the storm to Tropical Storm at that time. Using the 18Z models from today. Thursday.
Ocean heat content doubles at the 49W longitude. From the current < 25 KJcm-2 to > 50 KJcm-2.

Super long range models are varied. From landfall in the Galveston,Tx area back to the east including the Florida Panhandle. I've only checked the GFSLR and ECMWF..


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #91368 - Fri Aug 19 2011 07:14 AM

97L is still struggling, and 98L behind it actually may develop first. The name will depend on what happens with TD#8, if it becomes a Tropical Storm or not.

A surprisingly large amount of the models take it across the northeastern Caribbean islands, and the longer range ones (GFS and Euro) Imply some sort of South Florida (Euro with South through Miami August 27th out through Daytona) or Gulf activity (GFS through Western Cuba into the Gulf and eventually the Florida Panhandle August 28th).

Neither are all that reliable at the long range, but they have been fairly consistent with some sort of threat to Florida or the Gulf coasts for late next week on the model runs since this past Monday.

Now for what's going on visually with the system, it's a very broad area that has yet to really organize, which would imply it going further westward in general. It still doesn't appear like it could develop until sometime next week if at all. Thought on the general path and conditions jives with the shorter range models, but longer range really depends on if the system gets organized or not.

The bottom line to this is that there is some potential to have some sort of system near Florida or the Gulf late next week and to keep tabs on what's going on later, especially if a storm actually develops. The wave is expected to start getting itself slowly together later today, but probably not make it to a tracked storm status for a few days,


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91369 - Fri Aug 19 2011 10:11 AM

NHC has increased 97L to 40% likely to develope in 48hrs. The convection has increased and it looks like the dry air is retreating slightly. I dont see this as a gulf storm due to the heights in the SW US. The other thing is the ULL to the NW of 97L is forecast to weaken but shows no sign of doing so as of yet. That will move the system a little more wnw in time. Its all about when it develops and how quickly as to the track.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91371 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 AM

97L is nearly surrounded by dry air for now, so development is going to be slow to occur. The model runs are fairly consistent from run to run in developing it once it enters the Caribbean and taking it as a major storm toward central Cuba in 6 - 7 days. Of course, all that will depend on if and when 97L does develop and by how much.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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weathernet
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91374 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM

I too, see 97L "moistening up" this morning. Given the added heat content off the SST's, I would guess we will basically see a steady state of increasing coverage area. I cannot stress enough how large this system's overall envelope appears to be. It really is fortunate that a rapid spin up is not anticipated, and that development ( should it in fact occur ), likely not result in the system being designated a depression much sooner than Sunday morning. That much is good news. The bad news is that as this system evolves, its overall size could pose serious flood risk to Puerto Rico and Hispanola, especially if it tracks directly over or just south of these islands.

Having just taken a look at all the models this morning, there seems to be little question as to the basic course and motion over at least the short to mid range of time. Nearly all of the dynamic models and the global models, pretty much advertise a tight cluster of tracks that certainly indicate that the sytsem will pass close to ( if not over ) Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Whether that means just to the south or just to the north still remains within any margin of error. How much mountainous land is traversed prior to any possible threat to the Bahamas, Yucatan, or the U.S. obviously plays into later intensity.

Here is my take on the present set of circumstances - As I look at the broader picture ( literally ), there is little doubt that 97L is on the western edge of what appears to be an overall very large surge of the easterlies. On visable satellite, it would appear to me that in association with 97L, a huge lazily rotating area of Altocumulus would appear as the leading edge of this surge. I think the large pocket of dry air ( SAL ) which lies just north of the latest invest 98L, bears out, this continued easterly surge as well. I think it wil become appearant that the cuttoff low north of Puerto Rico, will be shunted ( or basically pushed ) out of the way by this larger/strong region of mid to upper level ridging which is pushing westward along with 97L. Thus, I do not see the ULL playing much or any role in the developing systems motion or formation ( granted, should the ULL cut off southward, it would tend to aid in the forming systems outflow ). More than likely I would guess the ULL to simply get pinched northward and picked up by the westerlies. To me, biggest threat to Southern/East Coast of Florida, Bahamas, and potentially the Carolina's would be for this system to strengthen into a Tropical Storm prior to reaching Puerto Rico. Such a more vertically stacked system would tend to gain a little latitude a little quicker and potentially pose the biggest risk for 97L to not only impact these areas, but have greater postenial for reaching stronger downstream intensity ( given the avoidance of being impacted by mountainous terrain ). Meanwhile, greatest threat to Hispanola, Cuba, West Coast of Florida and much of the N. Gulf Coast, would be if this system were to not strengthen ( as forecast ) until reaching the Eastern Caribbean, and then to have a more Westward track. In the near term ( 72 hrs ), it is my opinion that the level of consolodation and potential for deepening that will ultimately determine whether we see a possible Major Hurricane threatening the Florida East, Georgia, or Carolina coastline or a re-intensifying hurricane which could ultimately threaten anywhere from the N. Gulf Coast eastward to the W. Coast of Florida.

Given how larger sytstems tend to strengthen more slowly, and given the current overall dynamics my best guess for the moment would be a significant rainfall event for the greater Antilles and eventually a Cat.2/3 Hurricane landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle region to perhaps the Louisiana coastline.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91377 - Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM

The 12Z Long range models still are consistently not good. Both the GFS and 12Z Euro models show Florida landfall Friday/Saturday of next week. (GFS toward the panhandle, Euro toward south Florida and through Orlando and out north by Jacksonville)

The system has been organizing throughout the day, and has about a 40% chance to form in the next two days.

To counter this though, other models take it more southerly/westerly, and over Hispaniola again, which could destroy it (ala Emily). However, unlike Emily, 97L does not have the duality problem, and generally has better conditions ahead of it.

In short, the persistence of two of the more reliable model trends (that so far have been doing well on initialization of this system) toward Florida and the Gulf continues, and it should be watched extremely closely. This time in August is the prime time for hurricane formation, and the odds do favor a landfall somewhere in Florida or the northern Gulf coasts. When this system eventually forms into a named system, I would keep tabs on it daily.


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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91378 - Fri Aug 19 2011 04:42 PM

I have to say while it is week or so from U.S threat I am a little concerned how consistent the models have really been with this system and conditions look quite good for this to be first cane of the season.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91379 - Fri Aug 19 2011 04:48 PM

The GFS model doesn't really develop it much for another 3-4 days...faster than that would turn it more poleward...how does the development today square with GFS...about what is expected, or ahead of the model pace?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91382 - Fri Aug 19 2011 05:23 PM

It looks like on the northern part of the broad circulation a pretty distinct MLC is developing. This could drill down to the surface. It would also tend to support the northern models as it would initialize farther north and east. I am beginning to think this will be Irene before it gets to the islands. It has good outflow in all sections so its right under an anticyclone, and the water only gets warmer and the dry air seems to be backing off some

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Aug 19 2011 05:27 PM)


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weathernet
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91385 - Fri Aug 19 2011 08:09 PM

Jeez..... I had stepped away from the computer since last posting and ........ I really was not prepared to see 97L with convective banding! Um, as suggested by other posters as well, I would assume that a more "vertically stacked" system will be one more likely to slightly gain a little latitude; if not immediatly, than certainly as it approaches the islands AND the U.S. East coast trough. Unfortunatly, these large systems are not so easily swung and bounced around, thus considering that it continues to have some solid ridging to its north, than I might assume that a 280-290 heading might ensue sometime tommorrow, but perhaps more likley on Sunday. This quicker than anticipated organization may well spell greater threat to the Florida East coast.

I would guess that tommorrow's 12Z model runs might start to bear out a somewhat more north and east shift, from those currently depicting a more westward direction.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91386 - Fri Aug 19 2011 08:12 PM

Much better organization was noted today with 97L. A well-defined circulation is starting to develop. Earlier there appeared to be a weak LLC at 13.5N and a MLC getting organized at about 15.5N. Consolidation seems to be occurring at about the midpoint in latitude - about 14.5N. It will be interesting to see what the model coordinates were for the 00Z run. NHC has increased the probability for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours to 60%. If the current trends continue, the system could make it to Tropical Depression status on Saturday.
ED


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Owlguin
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91387 - Fri Aug 19 2011 08:26 PM

Curious which model performed best with Emily? The GFDL doesn't seem to want to develop this system. Is there recon going out tomorrow?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #91388 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM

Dry air NE, NW and SW of the system has cleared out the cirrus shield - and discloses a common theme this season, i.e., the low-level center is outrunning the MLC and is displaced to the southwest of the MLC. It should be noted that the LLC is also rather weak. I'm basing this on the 00Z NHC position coordinates of 13.9N 51.8W - but with a weak circulation and IR imagery its a difficult challenge. General movement based on coordinate history is WNW but without a good LLC fix, the movement could still be to the west.

Here is the Recon schedule for tomorrow with fixes at 18Z and 21/00Z.
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 20/1615Z
D. 15.3N 57.5W
E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL DERESSION EIGHT
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 20/2015Z
D. 17.0N 88.00W
E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR THE
SAME SYSTEM AT 22/0000Z.

ED


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #91389 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:08 PM

Time to really start watching the tropics,as things are heating up.We are just entering the "meat and potatoes" of the season.97L is the first one of three areas to start keeping a close eye on.
Late flare up with 97L late tonight.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91393 - Sat Aug 20 2011 10:32 AM

The latest GFS has 97L going right up the spine of the peninsula of FL. I would suspect that a betteer grip will be had on Sunday night on a decent track. Just saw teh local Orlando WESH news and they had a fairly narrow band track coming right into the peninsula of FL.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91401 - Sat Aug 20 2011 12:52 PM

Still to early to make any definate land fall predictions. But just for the heck of it, lets say this system does get its act together( which seems likely) what would be a rough estimate next week when this system could be churning somewhere near or on the Florida peninsula. I have 2 high end weddings next weekend and I like to keep our clients informed in case we have to make alternate plans. Right now I informed them that there is something lurking way down South East of Central Florida so be aware. It is what it is.

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weathernet
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91404 - Sat Aug 20 2011 01:29 PM

Well, am starting to lean towards a track forecast that would contend with the far greater wisdom of the present models. I am going to go out on a limb here, and anticipate that 97L will be tagged as a depression by tomm. ( Sunday morning ), and as it continues to slowly strengthen, will pass north of Hispanola, perhaps crossing only the extreme most northeastern corner of the island.

Despite the close clustering of the majority of the models, I am starting to get an increasing concern that 97L will develop farther north than currently anticipated. Furthermore, should this occur, along with having to re-establish the models "intial" point, current motion would need to be taken into consideration as well.

At the moment, I beleive the initialization point ( and more westward motion ), could be replaced once the system is eventually tagged as a depression. Once this occurs as well as follow up "fixes" continue to verify actual motion, my concern is that the newer forecast tracks will indicate greater threat to Puerto Rico and less of a threat to HIspanola. Should this pan out, than the level of concern for potentially a stronger hurricane to eventually occur would be greater due to less land interaction. I don't think this would change the threat level for South or East Coast of Florida. For that matter, the most recent long range GFS steering would make me think that any storm that might approach Florida from the ESE, would continue into the Eastern Gulf. Thereafter, strong ridging to the north could cause an ongoing westward motion to a virtual stall in the E. Gulf
.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91406 - Sat Aug 20 2011 03:39 PM

It has been my experience and that is limited, that all the guidance models that come out and name a Florida landfall at the beginning of a system, the guidance usually moves to the right or the left of the original model runs. I have pretty much adopted the thought that if Florida is named first it is not likely to experience the storm system. However, the more toward Florida the storm is, the more likely some Florida involvement will take place. The guidance in this 97l storm is interesting to watch. By the time it gets to a landfall it could very well be in east Texas and they need the rain very badly.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91408 - Sat Aug 20 2011 03:51 PM

Well, it is way too early for anyone to here in FL to panic. Just be aware and stay up to date on any developments over the next few days and just be prepared to react if needed. The models won't gel until there are several runs on a definite, developed system. Considering the consistency from run to run so far, it is safe to say that there could be a problem anywhere from the central Gulf coast all the way to Cape Hatteras later next week. Everyone simply should just be aware of that for now. I have my contingency plans refined in my head and I'm prepared to act on those if the need arises. Between now and next Thursday, Friday, Saturday, a lot of variables will come into play.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91409 - Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM

This system is interesting today, it's not that organized, but it does look amazing on satellite. The models, Euro is a bit east (Still along Florida), GFS is insane (right up the spine of Florida). Ensemble GFS is in the Gulf, CMC expects it to basically slow down and maybe meander (possibly in the Gulf, or worse over Florida). The spread is from the Central Gulf up to South Carolina, with the more reliable ones shooting the middle.

The fact the westerlies may not be strong enough to kick it out, means it may just sit for longer than expected, or move further westward than indicated. For such consistency throughout the models this week . The good news is at least for now, it may be on the weaker side.

12Z Model rundown:

GFDL does not really grasp it at all, and shuffles it to the west and keeps it an open wave.
HRWF takes it over eastern Cuba and the run ends just before approaching South Florida. as a hurricane
EURO In caribbean, south of Haiti, through Eastern Cuba, up into South Floida and along the spine of Florida along the eastern side of the state. as a hurricane
GFS Operational: In Caribbean South of Haiti, Through Eastern Cuba, up into the Keys Friday, and straight up the center of Florida, leaving the dirty (NE)( side of the system in S. Fl, E CFl, and Jax. as a hurricane
Canadian: In Caribbean, Over Jamaica, over Western Cuba into the eastern Gulf. Run Ends before US Landfall.
NOGAPS: Caribbean, over haiti, eastern Cuba, into Eastern Gulf, and then near Tampa at end of the Run.
TVCN: Into Southeast Florida, and through the Spine of the State, out at Jacksonville.

The west/east bias is talked about in the HPC discussions, which implies more Florida risk, or a possible stall.

Bottom line, news is about the same, until a real system forms it's still bit of a guessing game. But odds do favor some sort of landfall in the US, how strong and exactly where are not known.
For the united states, those in the southeastern US, Florida, and North Central Gulf coasts need to watch this one. In the Caribbean, basically all the northern islands of the Caribbean, from Leewards, VI, PR, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica. Bahamas not so much.




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doug
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91421 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:40 PM

It would be my estimate that 97L is beginning to organize around a cyclonic center near 14.8/57.2. The low levels seem to be focusing there. It is right in the center of the entire system. If so and all the convection NE and west of that point remains in tact there should be plenty to work with.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Sat Aug 20 2011 05:47 PM)


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Edski
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91432 - Sat Aug 20 2011 06:51 PM

As this system seems to now be Irene, and the model tracks are all tighly clustered and seem to hit every land mass that it can between where it is and Florida, I'm not going to freak out. But it will be time to prepare...

If this storm does hit Hispanola, travel up the spine of Cuba, then up the Florida peninsula, it's hard to imagine it being all that strong when it gets near me in the Tampa area...of course it it does at all.

Getting interesting.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Edski]
      #91433 - Sat Aug 20 2011 07:07 PM

Charley, Jeanne and Frances echo through my mind. Charley was awesome in its travel through Polk County. This is starting to remind me of the storm that hit Miami and the models went one direction and the storm went another. I think that storm was named Irene or Iris. This will be an interesting week with the other invests also coming into the field of view.

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vineyardsaker
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91440 - Sat Aug 20 2011 10:54 PM

Irene does not look well organized and to threaten FL she needs to cross Hispaniola, which just shredded TS Emily, or move off her predicted track, and then seize threatening FL. What is the likelihood that Irene with *both* strengthen to, say, H1 strength, and make landfall in FL?

I might be missing something, but I don't feel too threatened (yet?)

Do you?

(Post moved to the more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 20 2011 11:26 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91441 - Sat Aug 20 2011 11:12 PM

There is no way of knowing what She will do until she does it. The models are still crunching numbers and the xupporting atmosphere could change . I wonder how much the remains of Harvey will effedt her if she goes off on a westerly track.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 20 2011 11:27 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #91443 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:48 AM

I really think you cannot expect the same result from Irene that we had from Emily.

A lot of Ifs... if she is reforming more to the NW then it's obvious the models will pull to the right.

If she goes up and over the islands, that would be a serious problem as the water in the Turks and Caicos is very hot and would support rapid strengthening... if... she slows down she would strengthen more.

It's early in the game and a lot may change over the next 24 to 48 hours so hang tough and keep watching.

The cone covers all of South Florida right now... that's both coasts not just Miami.

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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #91444 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:05 AM

I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days. My assumptions are usually correct so Its a good bet 60% or
more that this might only bring some squalls at most to the east coast of Florida.

Reasons... Formation of the center is further NE.. Model trend on the ECMWF is more east near Nassau and I think it will end up just east of there heading NNW by Thurs near 25N and 76W and get no closer than 79W making landfall in S Carolina.

I could be wrong... but this was suppose to form around 15N and 63W by Sunday morning.. it's already around 16.2N as of this post and 61W... only chance this has of making Florida is a west turn on Sunday (cause its more WNW right now) and its LLC get pulled W of the midlevel Circulation over Haiti due to landfall around 18N and 70W exiting around Port-A-Prince Haiti and then going inland over SE Cuba keeping this a 50mph Tropical Storm until it comes off around 78W and 23N...but that just probably not going to happen...probably come off near Labadee Haiti moving WNW and moving NW thru middle of the Bahamas.


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Marknole
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91445 - Sun Aug 21 2011 06:39 AM

"DEEP LAYER RIDGING HAS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POSITION OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN U.S..."

That's been the story all summer, and there's no indication this ridge will break down anytime soon. Especially if Irene strengthens, I look to see the forecasts trending down in forward speed, and moving more towards the right. Fish storm, or possibly an OBX approach.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #91448 - Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 AM

At the current time, 8:28AM EDT. Only ONE of the 8 models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ has Irene going away from the East Coast of Florida.
And that is the GFDL. At the 120 hour mark it is centered near Key West, Fl and the Dry Tortugas.

All of the other 7 models either brush or strike the East Coast of Florida in the 5 day frame.

The Whole Florida Peninsula is in the 5 day Cone of Certainty for Irene at this point. So please make sure that you have begun your Storm Preparations.

Models Change every 6 to 12 hours don't wait until it's too Late.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91468 - Sun Aug 21 2011 12:10 PM

( I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days)quoted.
Scott you do seem to have a sense of what will happen in these storms. Has your opinion changed since this last post I quoted? I have made my preparations and now am looking forward to seeing which of the models or if all of the models will ever agree on its position. It seems that a H. warning has been issued for Puerto Rico. SO your scenario is looking healthy.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91470 - Sun Aug 21 2011 12:49 PM

Irene has a better chance of moving east of the Bahamas then going into the GOM.

I still dont see her getting past 79W and 30N.. but that is 6 days out still... Right now I
see her moving up the bahamas.. the current 12Z GFS is inline pretty much and wouldnt
surprise me to see Irene go even further east.. Florida isn't 100% out of the woods..but
it would have to weaken and move more W on Monday-Tuesday for this to have a chance
to make Florida.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91471 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:06 PM

The 12Z models are rolling in, and the trend has a bit more eastward.
GFDL 12Z: Over Puerto Rico, Over entire length of Hispaniola, over eastern half of Cuba, Emerges into Florida Straits on Thursday, over Key west Friday, up entire western Spine of Florida.
HWRF: Takes Irene over Dominican Republic and north avoiding Haiti, avoids Florida well to the East, rim ends with storm nearing Charleston, SC
Euro: Over PR, Clips Dominican Republic, deepens rapidly at 72 hours out north of Hispaniola... Enters Southwest Bahams 96 hours out... stays east of Florida barely misses WPB Friday... Landfall south of Charleston, SC Saturday as a major hurricane... still running...
GFS 12Z: over Dominican Republic, misses Cuba, through the western Bahamas, stays east of Florida, landfall near Hilton Head, SC Saturday.
Canadian: Keeps system off east coast (brushes Outer Banks) ... Hope this trend continues
NOGAPS: Keeps it east of Florida, Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday.
TCVN: Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday
UKMET: Enters it into the Gulf

So far the trend is looking better for Florida, less so for the Carolinas. It is good to see the chance of a recurve before the US going up, but it's still way too low for comfort (Although it may soon be 50/50 again). The catch is, Irene is still not the best defined system, and the "Center" is jumping around a bit which can mean a lot for eventual landfall position. The more northerly position may very well be a good sign for Florida. Still the NHC's cone looks pretty good.



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Marknole
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #91472 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:09 PM

Absolutely Daniel. I would hope that everyone that takes the time to post (or even browse) this site and lives in the fire zone would have their preps done (before they’re ‘rushed to completion’). My point is with the model trends. Irene continues to skew right, and will have many mountains (literally) to climb.

Much like Ivan trended left; 5-day said Tampa Bay, then Cedar Key, Aplalach, then finally Pensacola. The discussion mentioned weak disturbances in the upper flow, and any one of these could pick it up. Wishcasting? Maybe, but this is the appropriate forum…


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #91473 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:20 PM

This is for Model discussion. Or discussion of the models.

Very few tropical cyclones that I can recall stick with the models. In part due to upper air changes, land topography and tweaking of the models. And don't forget Center re-positioning.

Ivan, Andrew, Katrina, Charley and the list goes on.
I think Charley receives the Right Turn, Clyde Award for last minute turns. But the turn was visible on radar and by Recon.

Scottsvb and others have valid points in their posts. It's just too early to tell where Irene will go. The Cone does include All of the Florida Peninsula at present. That may or may not change in the next 5 days.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #91479 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:20 PM

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91483 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:38 PM

12Zs are all done running: The summary:

The 12Z models are rolling in, and the trend has a bit more eastward.
GFDL 12Z: Over Puerto Rico, Over entire length of Hispaniola, over eastern half of Cuba, Emerges into Florida Straits on Thursday, over Key west Friday, up entire western Spine of Florida.
HWRF: Takes Irene over Dominican Republic and north avoiding Haiti, avoids Florida well to the East, rim ends with storm nearing Charleston, SC
Euro: Over PR, Clips Dominican Republic, deepens rapidly at 72 hours out north of Hispaniola... Enters Southwest Bahams 96 hours out... stays east of Florida barely misses WPB Friday... Landfall south of Charleston, SC Saturday as a major hurricane... still running...
GFS 12Z: over Dominican Republic, misses Cuba, through the western Bahamas, stays east of Florida, landfall near Hilton Head, SC Saturday.
Canadian: Keeps system off east coast (brushes Outer Banks) ... Hope this trend continues
NOGAPS: Keeps it east of Florida, Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday.
TCVN: Keeps it east of Florida, but Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday
UKMET: Enters it into the Gulf

Overall a significant shift eastward in models, the Euro is most disturbing for South Carolina. This is better news for Florida, but really depends on how much of this persists. Irene still is somewhat disorganized (Telltale sign being it shifting center positions and the elongation of the system north to south). Really not too much has changed other than the odds of a recurve before the US is nearing 50/50 (still favors landfall, however), the probability for Florida has decreased slightly, and the probability for south Carolina has increased slightly. All of this fits into the Cone in the NHC forecast though.



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WeatherNut
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91485 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:11 PM

My fear is this hits in an area like Savannah which has not seen a substantial hurricane since 1947. There are several models hinting towards that general area

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91486 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:25 PM

Quote:

My fear is this hits in an area like Savannah which has not seen a substantial hurricane since 1947. There are several models hinting towards that general area



The above post sounds like the models are now not in agreement. This could be a worrier to everyone on the east coast until it passes your latitude.

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91497 - Sun Aug 21 2011 06:59 PM

Not as many models run at 18Z, but here they are:

GFDL 18Z:Crosses over most of Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, Goes over Key West, approaching landfall near Pensacola in Final Frame (Saturday)
HWRF: Misses Puerto Rico to the north, as well as Hispaniola, enters Turks and Caicos.. last frame approaching landfall Saturday near Myrtle Beach, SC
Euro: N/A
GFS 18Z: South of PR, through most of Hispaniola, through western Bahamas with Landfall near Charleston SC, Saturday
Canadian: N/A
NOGAPS: N/A
TCVN: Not Available Yet
UKMET: N/A

Last run done for the 18Z rundown.

GFS shifts slightly west, HWRF very east, GFDL west to Panhandle, much too big a spread to be comfortable with.



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k___g
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91502 - Sun Aug 21 2011 08:08 PM

I am from Savannah and if it looks as if Irene is headed that way I'll be there, on Tybee Road. However, I'm not yet convinced that the strong ridge will break down,allowing the storm to miss Florida. Obviously, the next few days will tell the story.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91525 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:27 AM

6Z Rundown

GFDL 6Z: Over hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, landfall near Key Largo on Friday, up western side of State. (Note it is already too far west and south of the actual track)
HWRF: Through Central Bahamas, approaching Myrtle Beach, SC at end of Run
Euro (0Z, no 6Z Run): Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday
GFS 6Z: Through Central Bahamas, Landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC Saturday
Canadian:
NOGAPS (0Z no 6Z run): rides northern edge of islands, landfall saturday near Tampa (Very unlikely based on current trends)
TCVN: Stays East, landfall near Wilmington, NC
UKMET: n/a


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91527 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:13 AM

The out of line with the others GFDL has shifted back WEST to the point of coming up the bottom of Florida EAST of Tampa and then up the west coast of Floirda.Of note the GFDL HAS DONE THIS many times in the past being off from the other major models only to fall back in line over time.The NHC has shifted a little more east again.

Also of NOTE the GFDL the only way the track were to hold the system would have to go over the entire land mass of Hispanola and hati dropping below Hurricane force.In fact right now the system is west of the next track point of the GDFL.

While everyone in Florida up the coast should watch this storm and the GDFL can't be thrown away in time it will have to shift unless the system turns much more west.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91528 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:50 AM

Quote:

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.




They now have it approaching the Florida coast as a 2. Which means, from recent history, it will be a 3.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91530 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 AM

Quote:

The out of line with the others GFDL has shifted back WEST to the point of coming up the bottom of Florida EAST of Tampa and then up the west coast of Floirda.Of note the GFDL HAS DONE THIS many times in the past being off from the other major models only to fall back in line over time.The NHC has shifted a little more east again.

Also of NOTE the GFDL the only way the track were to hold the system would have to go over the entire land mass of Hispanola and hati dropping below Hurricane force.In fact right now the system is west of the next track point of the GDFL.

]
Is this storm consistent with any of the models yet? It is impressive in size and the track that is on the left of the page here keeps getting further to the north I have noticed.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

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CFHCAdministrator



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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91531 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:31 AM

What the GFDL seems to be picking up on is just keeping the Atlantic ridge stronger through the period, which would force it more west if it occurred. This is a possibility, just not the most probable one.

Basically the ridge line for the GFS around the same period is along the NC/SC border, and for the GFDL the ridge line is near the FL/GA border. Look at the 500mb plots to see the ridge lines. This Animation you can see the "line" at 84 hours out running through the Ga/Fl border.

In this animation you see the GFS plot, which in 84 hours if you look for the line where the "yellow" turns to orange, you see it pass near the NC/SC border. This is a good representation of the ridge that is being talked about.

The GFDL is already a bit off, so the GFS is probably closer to what will happen. The cautionary note is that the GFS has a history of under doing ridges. The good news (for florida) is the consensus models have shifted east again, but worse news for the Carolinas. This will likely change more over the next 2 days.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 09:49 AM)


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #91532 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:36 AM

First off everyone needs to watch it.The only model that has it hitting Florida the GFDL is already south of where the system is.It also takes it over the whole land mass and going back down to a TS because of it.The GFDL is a good model but so far is out to lunch on this storm.The problem like a few have stated is how far north will the storm go.There is a ridge to the west and north of the system so in a few days the storm may slow to a crawl.The NHC has been shifting east on each update but that is not to say it will not go back west if the models change.

So in the end i think this will storm is going to get north and may slow to a crawl in 2-3 day but i just do not see any reason to go by the GFDL right now at all.I think Scott had it pegged the other day we shall see.

BUT IF IT WERE TO FOLLOW THE GFDL it would need to start going south and that is just not going to happen.


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #91533 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:41 AM

Good Morning All,

Been away since last August.
But reading Flhurricane regularly.

My wife and I are looking to move to the Keys.
She's working (playing with dolphins) at Marathon on Saturday.

What are the odds Ft Lauderdale Int'l will be open Saturday.

Thanx, Jim


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #91535 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:44 AM

Given the fact that at the very least it will be very very close to me,and the fact that it should not interact with land to any real degree,I will be preparing for a major hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91536 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:53 AM

How about this:

Highest sustained winds that Ft Lauderdale's Power Grid
can withstand.... :?:


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91537 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:06 AM

Bob you will be at least on the weak side if the models hold up and far enough away.As for the airport being open nobody can say what is going to happen on Saturday at this point.It could be sunny it could be windy that is 6 days away.

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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91541 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:31 AM

the 12Z http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png early cycle models are out and went way east.They have landfall around SC now.The trend is still East.

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91542 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:38 AM

Thanx Ralphfl and Bob.

So I'll just assume that we'll be landing Saturday Hot in Ft Lauderdale
and that there won't be much road debris and that
the Keys will be open...

sounds like a Plan, LMAO

Like Lauren and Bogie in Key Largo


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dolfinatic
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91546 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 AM

I think until we get some G IV data into the models, it is still up in the air where Irene ultimately heads. Sofar the models dont seem to be picking up the strength of the ridge. I think tomorrows model runs will tell the tale after they ingest the G IV data.

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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #91550 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM

That data is only for the current-24hr models in very near term movement.. whatever they sample will not be the same 24hrs from now... another trough will be digging in eroding the ridge Tuesday night-Weds causing a more NW path then N towards the Carolinas.

What I saw in the pattern "Friday Night" when I went out on a limb and said that when this makes landfall in 5-6 days(from then) that the Models depict the Atlantic Ridge stronger than what it currently was and alittle to far SW than what it really was. You see, the ridge was not quite as strong as depicted and alittle more NE causing the intensifying Tropical Storm to move WNW-NW instead of just north of due west till Haiti. Since Friday if you look at the models till Monday.. the Storm back then was forecasted by the models today to be around DR-Haiti in the Carribean.. this is a good 200-300 miles further NE than what was predicted by even the GFS and ECMWF cause they had the Ridge strength wrong and it was further NE. This is exactly why we always tell people to watch the near term models and not the 4 day or longer model runs.. also wait till a system becomes defined (really a TS with pressure under 1006mbs). Still bad placement and strength of that ridge is a downfall in the nearterm.

Irene should continue to move WNW with wobble W and NW but a turn to the NW will take place on Tuesday night-Weds then she will start moving more N well east of florida and georgia. There will even be a chance SC will not get hit and only and the outer banks of NC will feel more of a direct impact. Too early to say really.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91552 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:33 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.




They now have it approaching the Florida coast as a 2. Which means, from recent history, it will be a 3.




Or a 4..


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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91553 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 AM

Irene will MAX out as a CAT 3 or CAT 4 and ride up the bahamas or just east of there. This Storm is really a easy storm to predict. I can easily see since Friday that the ridging is NOT as strong as the models depict and this is causing the more WNW movement since it formed Saturday.

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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91555 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:49 AM

I can remember when the NHC always erred on the side of caution and over estimated the strength.

Something's up, lately they underestimate it a lot.


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peteferr
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91560 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:04 PM

Quote:

Good Morning All,

Been away since last August.
But reading Flhurricane regularly.

My wife and I are looking to move to the Keys.
She's working (playing with dolphins) at Marathon on Saturday.

What are the odds Ft Lauderdale Int'l will be open Saturday.

Thanx, Jim




With the current track (11am advisory), Saturday should not pose a problem with airports . Very likely Friday could have Ft Lauderdale and MIA close down (they shut down with TS force winds by law). Strangely, I was marooned in Costa Rica for five days following Hurricane Wilma . They shut down due to damage. With a trip to Hawaii planned on Sat leaving MIA I have interest in how things pan out. Looks like Fla will miss the brunt but we are not out of the woods yet


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: peteferr]
      #91563 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png again not sure why my posts won't show up in the other forum but this is the early cycle 12Z runs

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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: peteferr]
      #91576 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:41 PM

Airports will be open and fine.. 90% sure on that. Irene shouldn't be much of a issue to Florida as of right now.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91582 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM

Average Position Error (in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr___24hr___48hr___72hr___96hr
Average____19.5__95.4___133.6___149.8__181.8 nmi

Average Intensity Error (in knots)

Model Name 0hr___24hr___48hr___72hr___96hr
Average____3.4___11.4____18.2___22.1___25.2 kts

These are as of 12Z Monday Morning.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91590 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:43 PM

Too busy right now to do a full model rundown, but most models trended even more east, and the HWRF (which was the eastern most last round) went slightly back west (toward SC).

GFDL is not quite out yet.


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weathernet
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91596 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM

Mike, Just posted the 90 hr. GFDL from 12Z, and will add the link here. Bad as it is, 921 mb centered over Miami...., I do think may still have shifted perhaps a few miles slightly eastward as well. Hey, maybe a few more runs and the GFDL will have it entirely offshore S. Fla. instead....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/12zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL090.gif


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91598 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:21 PM

Yeah the 12Z GFDL has done what it always has done in the past years and move little by little towards the others.BTW worth noting that this is as far EAST the GFDL has been on this storm yet

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91599 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:30 PM

12Z euro is pretty far east of the official track, and looks like it is bending toward a North Carolina Landfall. will know more once the full run is done (It may change). GFDL shifted slightly east, and is still the outlier showing a major south Florida landfall. the GFS ensemble (as opposed to operational) shows impacts in Massachusetts)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: peteferr]
      #91616 - Mon Aug 22 2011 05:35 PM

And thank you, pete

What about renting a truck and putting gallons
of water in the back. Instead of a car.

Would that help in the Keys, or
would something else be more valuable
to take down from Lauderdale?

Curious,
Jim


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91618 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:08 PM

Poster: scottsvb
Subject: Re: Irene Forecast Lounge

Airports will be open and fine.. 90% sure on that. Irene shouldn't be much of a issue to Florida as of right now.

That's bold, Scott.

Between you and the NHC now NOAA, I feel confident....

Reposado Tequila &/or Appleton Shots all around.
We're headed to Marathon.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91619 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM

8/22/2011 18Z model rundown (As it comes in)

GFDL 18Z: Irene stays north of Caribbean islands and southwest of Bahamas through run, Landfall Miami on Friday pressures in Category 4 range. Center over Orlando Saturday still with Category 2-3 level pressures, forward motion slowing quite a bit, Final frame, Sunday west of Jacksonville, weakening rapidly, but still quite strong. This run is east of the last run, but the forward motion is much quicker, moving the timeline up earlier Friday.
18Z HWRF: 48 hours out, slightly south of 12Z run. 72 hours, over Andros island in the Bahamas, with a pressure typical of cat 4 hurricanes. 100 miles or so sw of the earlier run. at 78 hours.. Offshore Miami about 80 miles still cat 4. 90 Hours... Offshore Jupiter ~50 miles, pressure approaching Cat 5 territory. 96Hours... Offshore Cape Canaveral 50 miles, still with solid Category 4 pressure, forward speed noticeably slower. (a good 100 miles west of prior run position). 126 hours (Final frame)... 30 miles south of Savannah, GA / Hilton Head, SC still heading north... slightly weaker, but still category 4 level pressures. Overall about a 120 mile shift west for this run of the model.
Euro: N/A (next run is 0z models)
18Z GFS: Irene Moving faster than before, 84 hours ~100 miles offshore east of Florida... (Slighly west of the last run's position). Sunday just offshore between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, SC. Sunday afternoon, Landfall near Wilmington, NC... Monday over the Hampton Roads area in Virginia .. Tuesday, over Philadelphia,PA (East coast runner).... over New York CIty.... over Boston Tuesday Afternoon, heading into Maine.... Wednesday into Canada... Not a pretty run at all.
Canadian: N/A
NOGAPS: N/A
TCVN: Not Available Yet
UKMET: N/A

Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:05 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91623 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:39 PM

I'm still working on the model rundown above, but that 18Z GFS run into north carolina and riding up the east coast is not pretty since it affects almost every major city in the Northeast. Hopefully that one changes.

As a note only a few of the dropsondes and soundings made it in to the 18Z, 0z should have most of them.

The next model (0z) runs start around 11:30pm with the GFS.

I still wouldn't expect much of any official forecast track changes until the 5AM forecast, too many unknowns right now, but the sounding data in the next runs should help quite a bit.





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MichaelA
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91644 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM

That's what I am seeing in the 18Z runs - a very slight westward shift. We'll see if that continues on the 00Z runs. With Irene rapidly intensifying into a much stronger storm, the models are certainly going to be a bit more uncertain over time. The timing on the Eastern CONUS trough and Irene is going to be critical in determining exactly where Irene eventually goes. No one should be letting their guard down on this one. The next 2 -3 days are going to be very interesting.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91650 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:08 PM

Quote:

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.




They now have it approaching the Florida coast as a 2. Which means, from recent history, it will be a 3.

Or a 4..




Or a 5...

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 11:39 PM)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91652 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 PM

36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

Well, since it went from 80mph to 100mph in the last 3.5H, I wouldn't bet on that.

Run away.


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berrywr
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91653 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:46 PM

The reason for the slight westward shift is the upper air data coming out of Bermuda today and again tonight. At 23/00Z the 500 mb decameter height came in at 594 which is a 10 meter increase from 22/12Z. This is an indicator that the Bermuda subtropical upper ridge remains strong. Irene's outflow is also a contributing factor as her large size and outflow entering the westerlies will contribute to aid in keeping the ridge strong.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91664 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM

Can't stay up too late for the models, but will do what I can...

0z GFS running now:
hour 0: Initialization looks good.
hour 6 ,12: same as 18Z
hour 18: slightly north of 18Z
hour 24: same as 18Z hr 30
hour 30: same as 18Z hr 36
hour 36: slightly east of 18Z hr 42 (Irene is moving slower than the earlier run)
hour 42: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 48
hour 48: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 54
hour 54: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 60 (nearing Central Bahamas), 2nd trough seems strong enough to keep it away from Florida
hour 60: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 66
hour 66: northeast of 18Z hr 72 (Irene is East of Grand Bahama)
hour 72: northeast of 18Z hr 78
hour 84: northeast of 18Z hr 90
hour 90: northeast of 18Z hr 96 (Well east of Savannah)
hour 96: northeast of 18Z hr 102 (Well east of Charleston)
hour 102: northeast of 18Z hr 108 (East of Myrtle Beach)
hour 108: northeast of 18Z hr 114 (South of Wilmington, NC)
hour 114: northeast of 18Z hr 120 (Approaching Morehead City, NC)
hour 120: northeast of 18Z hr 126 (Landfall just east of Morehead City, NC)
hour 126: Over Nags Head, NC
hour 132: Offshore east of Virginia Beach
hour 138: Offshore east of Delaware
hour 144: Offshore east of New Jersey
hour 150: Landfall Long Island, NY
hour 156: Over Boston, MA
hour 162: Over Portland, ME
hour 168: Entering Canada near, Houlton, ME

Ending here. Florida direct hit chances dropping greatly from the GFS run, I don't expect the NHC's track to change much tomorrow.




Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 23 2011 12:34 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91673 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:01 AM

Partial Model rundown this morning:

0z Euro last night, landfall near wilmington, NC cat 4 late Saturday night/Sunday Morning, and over New York City Monday.

0z GFDL has shifted east of Florida, closest approach 80 miles (takes Irene right over Freeport on Grand Bahama), slows Irene down, last frame is just south of Myrtle Beach about 90 miles or so.

0z HRWF takes makes landfall north of Charleston, SC on Saturday.

6z GFS Starts off slightly northeast of 0z GFS position in 48 hours, a bit further east, 200 miles East of Florida. Just clips the eastern part of the outer banks near Cape Hatteras on Saturday. Landfall Newport, RI Sunday, moves over Boston, MA then back over water, another Landfall Monday east of Portland, ME

6z GFDL has shifted even further east, landfall near Morehead City, NC

Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 23 2011 08:29 AM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91674 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:30 AM

The model trend remains more to the East of Florida - still not letting my guard down just yet. The NHC track forecasts have been very good to excellent the last few years, so I have little reason to doubt this one. Folks along the entire Eastern Seaboard need to think about beginning their storm preparations today and tomorrow. The potential for Irene to become a severe to extreme storm is high, especially if it remains over the Gulf Stream for an extended period.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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RevUp
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91677 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:44 AM

I like the long-term eastward trend in the model forecasts. Never hurts to go through the preparedness actions, even if Irene never makes landfall. Better prepared than sorry.

Edited by RevUp (Tue Aug 23 2011 06:54 AM)


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #91684 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:09 AM

.Ill stand by what i said 4 days ago.It will brush NC at the most and i stand by that.

But again this is just my opinion looking at the trends

(no content trash-talk removed)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 23 2011 04:34 PM)


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BryanG
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #91685 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:17 AM

Not sure if this is the proper place to post this question ... but it seems logical.

As this storm strengthens and moves on up the coast of Florida, how will it effect the west coast of Florida. I do not expect winds to really worry about, but I found it interesting to watch the images of her pulling so much moisture across Hispaniola and over those mountains. Would it be possible to see this storm pull a lot of moisture from the gulf to help feed her? If it does that,would Florida see some pretty high rain levels as a result? Or is it going to be too far from the gulf to have any interaction?


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91687 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:30 AM

It has been my experience that a hurricane in the Atlantic along the eastern seaboard pulls moisture off of Florida but does not usually effect the Gulf. They are saying this is a large storm but will be far enough away to only cause rough seas and surf on the coast. The final answer to your question is that if this storm stays where it is forecast to be, there will probably be a few dryer days. However, for those of us in the center and western part of Florida I have noticed an invest of 90L which looks to be in our back yard.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Wingwiper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91688 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:45 AM

Quote:

.....how will it effect the west coast of Florida......


Irene is larger than "normal", with TS winds out 205 miles, but expected to strengthen. If it takes the currently forecast path with a closest approach to the east coast of approx 150 miles, theoretically that would put the western edge of the TS winds about mid-peninsula.

But after getting caught 5-10 miles from the eye of Charlie when it was "supposed" to go into Tampa Bay, I don't place as much faith in the projections as I used to..........

Edited by Wingwiper (Tue Aug 23 2011 09:56 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91690 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM

Quote:

Not sure if this is the proper place to post this question ... but it seems logical.

As this storm strengthens and moves on up the coast of Florida, how will it effect the west coast of Florida. I do not expect winds to really worry about, but I found it interesting to watch the images of her pulling so much moisture across Hispaniola and over those mountains. Would it be possible to see this storm pull a lot of moisture from the gulf to help feed her? If it does that,would Florida see some pretty high rain levels as a result? Or is it going to be too far from the gulf to have any interaction?




It would create an area of sustenance, and may be a bit breezy, but dry. The extreme east coast is probably the only area to even get a hint of Tropical Storm conditions, which may be very light to next to nothing if it trends more eastward. High surf and minor beach erosion will be a problem regardless. Based on that, maybe 20-30mph winds along the beach, maybe slightly higher gusts at closest approach.


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Wingwiper]
      #91691 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM

Would mid-peninsula hold true for TS winds for Volusia County then?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91694 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:42 AM


As for this storm i still go by what i said days ago and that is more and more east and may even miss the NC coast when all is said and done.

(Material that should have been sent in a PM was deleted.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 23 2011 04:42 PM)


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #91699 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:57 AM

At this point again i do not see any TS winds for Florida unless something drastic changes.

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91702 - Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM

Did Irene just take a jog down towards Haiti?

Looking at Inagua Nat'l Park (that island part of Turks?)
as a marker.

And can it get any closer to land w/o actually affecting the 'eye'?

And another btw. Shouldn't a Cat 2 have an eye?

Thanx, All
Great site. And discussion.


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Marknole
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91704 - Tue Aug 23 2011 11:45 AM

@ Mike and Danny,

I noted your concerns that my Sunday morning prediction of an 'out-to-sea' or Outer Banks strong hurricane might give Florida residents and tourists a false sense of security. Yet, this IS the Forecast Lounge, where amateur met's can use their instincts and knowledge of past storms to try their luck.

I also realize that this could be dangerous, and wanted to take a moment to implore all coastal/near-coastal residents to make their hurricane plans, stock up on the essentials and review these plans when a threat occurs.

Mods, is this a fair statement? I'd hate to see future posters scared off because our guesses (or yes, wishes) don't match NHC’s cone of uncertainty...


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #91707 - Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 PM

My concern per the above is this Auto Default to the computer models.

Land interaction, like the GFDL, is not well understood with these models.

And Irene is now tracking South of every Clark9Latest....taking dead aim on Inagua
Nat'l Park (Turks?) Island....


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k___g
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91713 - Tue Aug 23 2011 01:22 PM

Off topic, that's why I post this here. What is the area that seems to be forming off the Northeast coast of Florida this morning?

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: k___g]
      #91721 - Tue Aug 23 2011 02:31 PM

IT appears to be forming off of that trough that is supposed to influence Irene towards the north. It wouled bd very interesting to see another system spring up and figure out the forecast on that. There is also an invest near the Yucatan Peninsula that would give west Florida a little something to think about since Irene is not going to be our storm.

--------------------
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91722 - Tue Aug 23 2011 02:37 PM

Those are just a blob of unorganized thunderstorms at the base of the trough.

The 12Z Guidance is out for HWRF and GFDL, GFDL shifted east to cross over the outer banks then up into the Delmarva.

HWRF is pretty close to the GFDL.

12Z GFS clips outer banks then slams into Long Island, so does Canadian.

Early 12Z Euro indicates landfall near Morehead City

All of these models keep Irene over 150 miles east of Florida.


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91727 - Tue Aug 23 2011 03:30 PM

As i said a few days back the GFDL would come back in line and did when it got the info needed.But this storm has done what a few of us stated a few days back and that is to keep trending east.I really now give it a 10% chance to hit any land direct as in making US landfall.

This is and has been my forecast but always follow what the NHC says.

Edited by ralphfl (Tue Aug 23 2011 05:48 PM)


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Floridacane
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91735 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:37 PM

This is a repost because my other one disappeared. Can a hurricane get strong enough to make it's own steering currents and ignore what is out there trying to steer it?

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Floridacane]
      #91737 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:55 PM

Quote:

This is a repost because my other one disappeared. Can a hurricane get strong enough to make it's own steering currents and ignore what is out there trying to steer it?




Yes but only the extremely strong (Category 5) type storms normally can, but even then they are only in weak general steering conditions.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91739 - Tue Aug 23 2011 07:03 PM

18Z GFS is fairly similar to the 12Z Run, clipping the outer banks and then a landfall in Long Island.

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ralphfl
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91751 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:31 PM

As a Cat 1 at most if it makes it way up there but i still think the models will hold and curve it out.

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cjzydeco
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91759 - Wed Aug 24 2011 06:30 AM

Looking at the 500-850mb steering currents this morning, I noticed that the ridge over the Atlantic seems to have pushed farther west, nudging the col between two ridges back over FL/GA, whereas it had been more over the Bahamas. Will this prevent Irene from starting the turn this morning, maybe slow her down or keep her going WNW until this ridging retreats?

CIMSS Steering Layer 500-850mb - West Atlantic - 0300 UTC 8-24-11

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91760 - Wed Aug 24 2011 06:31 AM

Overnight model runs have, with the exception of the UKMET, shifted east, including the Euro. Most models clip or go just east of The outer banks.

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91775 - Wed Aug 24 2011 12:07 PM

The Bahamas make it easier to track Irene.

Irene stays within them it's moving to the West.
It gets outside and to the East.

Last jog had Irene getting 'back inside'.

But it takes a 'couple of jogs' to make a pattern.

But the weather in the Keys should be beautiful this week end.
I love how clear the air is after these storms pass...


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Rob1966
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91778 - Wed Aug 24 2011 01:42 PM

I would like to add to the record: the NHC (and FLHurricane) have done an outstanding job forecasting and putting out valuable information on Irene. The amount of mis-infomation and wishcasting out there is unfortunate and those on this site should continue to not be part of it.
I know i speak for many when i say THANKS and keep up the OUTSTANDING service this site is providing.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91783 - Wed Aug 24 2011 03:17 PM

As a note, the trend east of the models has pretty much ended at the 12Z run, they have all held or gone very slightly west.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91791 - Wed Aug 24 2011 03:54 PM

For newbies on the site, a relatively small adjustment can have huge implications. For example, moving Irene from now brushing Hatteras to a point 50 miles to the west would be devastating to the whole OBX and would be a pretty direct hit on Tidewater Va.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91809 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:51 PM

Yep, models shifting west. Seems those Bam ones are the orphan stepchild, but they've been right about this one, and one of them now has the Cat 4 headed right at me in central Florida. And the others seem to have that frame of mind.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91814 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:09 PM

Quote:

Yep, models shifting west. Seems those Bam ones are the orphan stepchild, but they've been right about this one, and one of them now has the Cat 4 headed right at me in central Florida. And the others seem to have that frame of mind.




I have to state that this is completely incorrect. The trend only affects how close the storm gets to North Carolina, there is close to no chance the core makes it to Florida or even gets closer than 200 miles. see This



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watchinout
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91815 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:20 PM

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-1046.gif

this is where myself and the other member must be getting our info. You can clearly see that the trck of Irene has been handled very well by BAMS and BAMD. The guys at NHC and on this site do and awesome job but it seems as if NHC forcast hast not been the right track thus far in the model. Or are we reading it wrong?


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91816 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:21 PM

Well, I certainly find that reassuring.

I was referring to the Skeetobite short list of models. I was assuming they were more important than the average. Unless I'm looking at the completely wrong thing, (which is entirely possible) all those Bam ones just shifted about 50-100 miles closer to Cocoa Beach, with one of them (obviously an outlier compared to that spagetti) taking it right up to the shore. And those are the most recently updated, on that short list.


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watchinout
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91817 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM

http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-2059.gif
This is as of 8pm if you look at the past trck I assume that yellow is BAMS green is BAMD and the orangish color is a mix between BAMS and the UKMET model.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91820 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM

The BAMM does better with weak systems, (Ie when Irene was a disorganized tropical storm). They are not global models and fairly shallow. Once a system gets organized, they are pretty useless since a large hurricane does not qualify.

Usually you use a combination of the BAMM models and globals early on (neither are all that great, but the BAMMs are good for finding trends while it's still a weak invest or disorganized tropical storm). Once a system gets a solid center of circulation it loses its luster, while the globals like the GFS and especially European tend to do much better.



In reality the BAMMs aren't considered at all by the NHC once a storm is formed.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #91821 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM

Quote:

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-1046.gif

this is where myself and the other member must be getting our info. You can clearly see that the trck of Irene has been handled very well by BAMS and BAMD. The guys at NHC and on this site do and awesome job but it seems as if NHC forcast hast not been the right track thus far in the model. Or are we reading it wrong?




That's not the latest, look at the animated Skeetobite one. Unless I'm losing my mind, (and there's a rumor to that effect) all those Bam ones just shifted radically west, with the yellow one going right up to the beach. Close enough with a Cat 4.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91823 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:31 PM

When are the good models updated?

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cguhr3
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91824 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:36 PM

don't see what you are seeing - but would like to know more... ps: BAMs have not done well here.... but willing to listen.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91825 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:37 PM

This link may help too see the plots and the satellite photo at the same time: Wundeground map Bam is already way off.

The most Reliable::
Euro approx 3:20pm for 12Z, 3:20am for 0z)
GFS 5:30 am, 11:30 am, 5:30pm, 11:30pm
GFDL approx 0z (1:30am), 6z (7:30am), 12Z (1:30pm)18z (7:30pm)
HRWF updates 00Z (12:30-1:30am), 06Z(6:30-7:30am),12z (12:30-1:30pm),18z (6:30-7:30pm)

Some models handle certain situations better than others, and it takes some skill to recognize what to look toward to vs ignore, and sometimes they can all be wrong, especially with the weaker systems. Strong storms tend to be really easy to model track when they move (if they stop moving it's a different ballgame) It just becomes a game of trends. There is a very slight trend to the west with some of the latest models, but in reality, I think the NHC's track is by far the best one.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91826 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:39 PM

The HWRF shifted west too.

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watchinout
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91827 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 PM

http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-2059.gif
This is as of 8pm if you look at the past trck I assume that yellow is BAMS green is BAMD and the orangish color is a mix between BAMS and the UKMET model
This is what me and THEOTHERRICK are looking at and if you look back over the last couple of days it shows the colors of the models that were most accurately followed. Even as a CAT 1,2 and 3 storm or are we reading this wrong? IT just seems as of lately that it is startin to follow the UKMET model as you can see here.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #91829 - Wed Aug 24 2011 11:18 PM

The models diverge rapidly starting now. If the BAMMs have a clue, (and I ain't betting on them), we should know by the morning, it should start turning east any time.

The 11pm NHC data has it turning/wobbling west instead...

Needs to wobble real hard in the east direction by the morning or BAMM is right for the moment.

---------

It's been west of the NHC prediction for the last 4 data points, not just the radical wobble to the west in the 11pm one.

http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2011s9#

Perhaps it being west of predicted is related to the models shifting west in some mysterious way.

Edited by TheOtherRick (Wed Aug 24 2011 11:25 PM)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91832 - Wed Aug 24 2011 11:54 PM

And the NHC shifted a little to the west, but just a hair, and now, to end up with such a similar prediction, after not turning to the east at all, takes a rapid turn/wobble to the east, starting now.

No sign of it yet.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Admin Note [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91833 - Thu Aug 25 2011 12:55 AM

In response to many questions, here is a link where you can learn about the various models:

NHC Model Descriptions

When you get there, click on HTML.

The BAM suite are early models - first out, quickly computed and they are simplistic models. They are good for a first blush look at a developing new system, like an Invest. As the storm develops and intensifies they are just about useless because they are replaced by highly complex global models that have a much higher degree of accuracy. For a hurricane, look at models like the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, ECMWF, NGM, NOGAPS and CMC. Some of these will perform well for a particular storm and not so good for the next (or previous) storm. Meteorologists at NHC (and elsewhere) use model trends to determine the best models for each storm - and the good ones then adjust the track based on their individual experience and knowledge of atmospherics.

As I will usually state about two or three times each season, the model is NOT the forecast - it is an aid to assist in developing the forecast.
Cheers,
ED


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Bev
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Abaco [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91835 - Thu Aug 25 2011 01:39 AM

On its current predicted track it looks like the island of Abaco will take a direct hit. If it maintains its current heading and speed, how long before they begin to feel H3 effects? I'm in communication with friends there and they aren't getting good detail data from official Bahamian sources. We have a home in Casuarina and friends there and in Marsh Harbour.

Thank you for any assistance.
Bev
(Long time fan since riding out Charley at cat 4 under a staircase)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Abaco [Re: Bev]
      #91839 - Thu Aug 25 2011 06:37 AM

Quote:

On its current predicted track it looks like the island of Abaco will take a direct hit. If it maintains its current heading and speed, how long before they begin to feel H3 effects? I'm in communication with friends there and they aren't getting good detail data from official Bahamian sources. We have a home in Casuarina and friends there and in Marsh Harbour.

Thank you for any assistance.
Bev
(Long time fan since riding out Charley at cat 4 under a staircase)




It will get progressively worse there today, in waves, with the worst probably around 2 - 4PM this afternoon.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Conditions/Observations in Your Area [Re: weathernet]
      #91846 - Thu Aug 25 2011 08:43 AM

The GFDL model is indicating the wield field may expand west to east quite drastically as it approaches North Carolina, strong winds may be felt quite far inland there and north if this occurs.

GFDL Animation

Note those winds are at the 700mb level, they will be less at the ground, but it means more tropical storm force area.

It also trended west at the 6Z model and now takes in inland and over DC and rides up through New York and up along the Northeastern Coast.


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91851 - Thu Aug 25 2011 10:18 AM

Irene has been tracking the 'line' of Bahama Islands.

It's some kind of land interaction.

Kinda like the Fujiwhara Effect, people still deny that hurricanes,
will 'track' coastlines...

And not one Talking Head will utter the statement that you can NOT
evac 25 million.

The eye tracks anywhere near the Statue of Liberty and 13 ft of water all the way to
Canal St and the Holland Tunnel...

With Western LI getting hammered.

The area is already 8 plus inches over Avg for August.


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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91860 - Thu Aug 25 2011 12:07 PM


Post deleted - the purpose of the site is to provide good information. If you pat yourself on the back, I'll pat your post elsewhere!
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 25 2011 06:32 PM)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91861 - Thu Aug 25 2011 12:09 PM


Hurricane Floyd - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd - CachedSimilar Floyd struck The Bahamas at peak strength, causing heavy damage. ... In total, Floyd was responsible for 57 fatalities and $4.5 billion (1999 USD; $5.93 billion ...

Floyd is the nearest we can get to Irene. Floyd was a TS went it Passed by New Jersey.


Wiki:

At this point, Hurricane Floyd was just east of the Bahamas. Floyd weakened slightly as it moved into the islands, striking Eleuthera Island and later making landfall on Abaco Island on September 14 while at the low end of the Category 4 range. Floyd turned north and paralleled the coast of Florida until making landfall near Cape Fear as a Category 2 storm on September 16. It returned to the ocean near Norfolk, Virginia, and traveled up the coasts of the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey as a tropical storm. It passed over Long Island and into New England.[32] Floyd caused record rainfall across the east coast, with Wilmington, North Carolina, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, setting 24-hour rainfall records of 15 in (380 mm) and 6.63 in (168 mm) in respectively. Portions of New England had rainfall totals nearing 11 in (280 mm). Floyd generated 9 to 10 ft (2.7 to 3.0 m) storm surges across North Carolina. There are 57 deaths directly blamed on Floyd, 56 in the United States and one on Grand Bahama. Most of the deaths were due to freshwater flooding in North Carolina. Floyd was one of the costliest hurricanes on record, with an estimated $4.5 billion (1999 USD; $5.93 billion 2011 USD) in damage.[32]

IF Irene goes over the Statue of Liberty at Cat 2....

$100 Billion...;}


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91864 - Thu Aug 25 2011 12:28 PM

Hey me too so far but i can only be 100% right if the storm does not make landfall.I said it would skirt but not make a landfall and i still will go with what i said back then also that it will skirt the easy coast but i still think it will not make a landfall as a hurricane on the US mainland.

Again just IMO always follow the NHC not what we say this is just what I/WE think


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cooper13
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #91867 - Thu Aug 25 2011 01:30 PM

Quote:

http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-2059.gif
This is as of 8pm if you look at the past trck I assume that yellow is BAMS green is BAMD and the orangish color is a mix between BAMS and the UKMET model
This is what me and THEOTHERRICK are looking at and if you look back over the last couple of days it shows the colors of the models that were most accurately followed. Even as a CAT 1,2 and 3 storm or are we reading this wrong? IT just seems as of lately that it is startin to follow the UKMET model as you can see here.




Actually, I believe you are reading it wrong. The past track is not color coded the same as the model tracks. The past track is coded to show the measured strength of the storm. So in this case, the green is when it was a tropical storm, yellow is Cat 1, orange is Cat 2, red is Cat 3, etc. See this table for comparison:
Irene history


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: cooper13]
      #91868 - Thu Aug 25 2011 02:56 PM

Midday Globals, GFS takes it along into the outer banks and along the coast into western Long island Sunday afternoon. Euro pretty much the same (but more up the Hudson River). GFDL more the same.

There is more than the usual confidence in the NHCs forecast track of Irene, please plan appropriately.


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berrywr
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91869 - Thu Aug 25 2011 02:58 PM

I haven't looked at everything but what I have looked at I think a nudging back to the west is justified. The Bermuda subtropical upper ridge has built to back over 594 decameters and the Mid-Continental subtropical upper ridge has slightly weakened over the past 24 hours to 595 decameters and shifted north and west. SW winds aloft along the east coast are indicative of the influence of the Bermuda ridge where inland winds veer sharply to the east under the influence of the Mid-C ridge. The upper low and longwave trough have retrograded westward in response to shortwaves moving across the US/Canadian border and into the trough. This shift and building of the Bermuda ridge will induce a south to north flow. I think our streak of hurricanes not making landfall will be over Saturday or Sunday. The NE USA has been wet all summer; despite a weaker hurricane it's impacts are likely to be more severe.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91870 - Thu Aug 25 2011 03:09 PM

As far as comparisons...Hazel (54) and Gloria (85) might be better comparisons. The projected track of Irene, however, is much more devastating than either of those storms since the center could possibly be just west of NYC and the surge would be much greater if you were on the right side of the storm. There is a very good youtube video of TWC's (with the late John Hope) coverage of Gloria (which is the best comparison so far). It is 5 parts but worth watching

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-19c4USwM_E

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Aug 25 2011 03:18 PM)


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doug
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #91872 - Thu Aug 25 2011 03:17 PM

Have I missed something? I just watched a 40 minute radar loop (Miami) and the center did not move. At 14 MPH I would have expected about ten miles and that would have been clearly detectable on the radar loop???

--------------------
doug


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WeatherNut
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91873 - Thu Aug 25 2011 03:19 PM

I doesn't look like it is moving much to me either.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91874 - Thu Aug 25 2011 03:40 PM

Here's a map with Irene, Floyd, Bob, Hazel, and Gloria map link plotted. These have come up before.

Irene is still struggling with multiple eyewalls but it still seems to be moving Long term radar may help.


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k___g
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91886 - Thu Aug 25 2011 07:32 PM

Based on the long range radar it appears that Irene is moving more WNW than forecast. If this continues, major changes are about to occur.

Post moved to more appropriate forum.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 25 2011 11:23 PM)


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Wingwiper
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91887 - Thu Aug 25 2011 07:46 PM

If it's moving, it isn't by much...

This link is a bit off, but you can drag the image; then start the loop - Fast speed is best, but it isn't very fast:
Intellicast Radar Loop


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GlenJohnson
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Wingwiper]
      #91889 - Thu Aug 25 2011 08:11 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #91893 - Thu Aug 25 2011 09:35 PM

Been watching this for days now ... just because. Irene is becoming pretty impressive for an East Coast storm. Hope folks in the NE are taking this seriously.

Looking at Atlantic Floater 2 IR RGB and a new eye has become quite clear, along with what appears to be near perfect northward movement. There appears to be good convection developing right around the new eye. The west side, however, looks a bit dry.
Melbourne long range Doppler radar shows the eye and western rain bands, but it's at the edge of range, so it looks a bit diffuse. Link for radar

Melbourne Radar

BTW, this is the BEST site on the web for hurricane discussion and information!


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91905 - Fri Aug 26 2011 07:58 AM

Sat image this morning looks like Irene is now getting caught in the SW winds aloft flow along the coast with movement now appearing NNE, and along with that is experiencing some shear along that direction in the upper levels. The eye has again nearly disappeared, the outflow is extended to the NE, and where earlier appearances showing Irene was regaining outflow in the S and SW portions now appear to be compressed. Convection is coming and going, and is currently strongest on the north side and weak in the west to south portions, That agrees with Doppler imagery from Jacksonville, Charleston and Wilmington. It almost looks that Irene's cyclonic organization is becoming a bit twisted and tilted, like a big slanted helix.

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TallyBob
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91906 - Fri Aug 26 2011 08:02 AM

I've checked all the landfall area tv stations and find it hard to believe that not one of them is offering "LIVE" coverage. Can anyone point to a NC or other area station that is broadcasting live on the Web? THX

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TallyBob]
      #91912 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:02 AM

Scanning and from what I'm seeing, it's CYA from the MSM.

One segment from CNN this AM on NYC Zone A flooding.
Along with Jersey and Staten Island.

And even that was 'fringe' of land will flood.

A 13 ft surge is going to Canal St. At High Tide.
The Holland Tunnel will flood.

NYC will be without electricity for 6 days.

If a Cat 2 comes over the Statue of Liberty.
And the Latest tracks have Irene passing DelMarVa
as a Cat 3....

Not a clue. You are on your own.
Get out. OR have a fortress. For 6 days.
Who knows what will happen on Western Long Island.

Again. 25 million w/o electricity for 6 days....


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91914 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:09 AM

And one more thing.

The GFDL is again 'running' Irene around coastline.
Up the Chesapeake.

Instead I'm thinking around Cape Hatteras and into NYC.

Reminds me of baseball and Irene is a slider
and NYC is the Low Left Corner of the Strike Zone.

The pitch has to be perfect.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Admin Note [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91915 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:11 AM

The thread is starting to drift off topic. The Forum Description is as follows: "Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling". Unofficial best guesses as well as storm-oriented forecasting contests can go here."
ED


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91918 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:55 AM

From the sat images overnight and this morning it would appear that convection around the core largely diminished and was diplaced well outwards. But watching the sat images evolve this morning I am beginning to think that what we are about to see is the re-emergence of a new and larger well defined eye over the next 3-6 hours. Could the weakening overnight have been part of a cyclical relaxation / regeneration process, a la eyewall replacement, but without the classic concentric structure that precedes eyewall collapse, and now will follow with eye regeneration?

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Ed in Va
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91921 - Fri Aug 26 2011 10:34 AM

Isn't there an old adage about a hurricane moving in the way it's pointed...if you look at this, it's going to come ashore west of the prediction http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91943 - Fri Aug 26 2011 05:20 PM

Okay, nothing like a clear eye in latest available sat images. With the sun lowering to the west and allowing for some shadow detail in the center area, the visible loop appears to be showing fairly clear evidence of SW shear. The NE quadrant is extended outwards to the NE and the interior appears to be a deep funnel wall. The SW quadrant appears just the opposite, and in fact it looks as if the SW quadrant is being pushed to the NE over the center, giving a near vertical SW cyclonic wall.wall. Looks like good outflow to the NE, not so much to the SW.

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Edski
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91949 - Fri Aug 26 2011 06:53 PM

SW quad of this storm has been challenged from the start it seems. What I've seen today, mainly based on the IR loop, is dry air enrtraining in.

Glad I missed it here in Tampa, and I understand a lot of folks getting hit with this are not too experienced dealing with these types of storms, but it does seem the hype machine is in overdrive. "Historic storm"? How? It's a hurricane strafing the east coast. It hasn't happened in a while, but it's certainly not unprecedented.

It does have a large wind field, and as Ed Dunham has mentioned on the main news thread that can lead to a serious surge, and that there are many more tall buildings in the NE. So taking this seriously is warranted. But calling it "historic"? I'm not sure I can agree with that.


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Edski]
      #91954 - Fri Aug 26 2011 07:26 PM

It strikes me that the issue with Irene for the land areas that will be affected is that the width of the storm portends very extended periods for storm surge to build. It's not so much the strength but rather the duration that makes it particularly troublesome for everything from the Eastern Shore up through Cape Cod and Boston.

Watching sat and what was available on Doppler on and off all day, the SW shear became quite apparent this afternoon. Now as the sun sets it appears that the SW shear is diminishing, the overall cyclonic rotation is becoming more symmetrical, and a pinpoint eye is now evident. If it were over open water it would look like restrengthening would be in the cards, but with the NC shore upcoming that would seem unlikely.

Edited by TXEB (Fri Aug 26 2011 07:40 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91955 - Fri Aug 26 2011 07:38 PM

Aside from the wind and the potential for damage from it, the amount of rainfall on already saturated ground, and the high tides and waves are going to do enormous damage both inland (rainfall) and along the coastal regions (tides and surf). Long Island will be heavily impacted being mostly on the stronger, East side of the storm. After LI, it will be the coastal areas of RI, CT, and MA. What is the projected forward speed of Irene when it is forecast to cross LI and then into New England? Historically, tropical storms have had fairly rapid forward speeds when they have impacted the NE US thereby lessening the total impact on that area. If Irene is moving comparatively slowly, the impact will be much greater due to the longer duration of severe conditions. Yes, this could be historic in striking a heavily populated region.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91957 - Fri Aug 26 2011 08:10 PM

Can anyone explain why the jog in the GFDL model at the mouth of Delaware Bay ?

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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91958 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:30 PM

The GFDL has been all over on this storm i would not go by what 1 model says but what the middle ground is which is the NHC track.The GFDL has not been good on this storm so take what the NHC says and not the GFDL as for the storm i still think it goes more east then there projected path.

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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91964 - Fri Aug 26 2011 11:51 PM

Like ED said somewhere, a model is not the forecast, it is an aid to assist in developing the forecast. My question was not about the accuracy of any model, but rather what is it that that leads to the GFDL jog? I am just curious as the jog is quite noticeable and appears unique to GDFL and has persisted over several runs. Does the underlying global atmospheric model used in GFDL suggest something that others do not, or is it maybe that GFDL has trouble when tracks run over or near land, or whatever?

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Random Chaos
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91965 - Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM

Maybe I can help.

A lot of the question surrounding the track of the storm, and the cause of the GFDL bending westward, have been directly related to how Irene interacts with the trough over the northern US.

There are two thoughts on this: (1) the trough will "suck" Irene toward it and (2) the trough will not affect Irene much. GFDL is taking much more of the 1st thought while other models are running more with #2.

I don't know enough about how these sorts of upper air dynamics play out to tell you which is more likely, but from what I've read #1 is definitely capable of happening, but no one really knows if it will. From what I can tell, there is a lot of blind throwing of darts at dart boards about which scenario will actually happen.

Official forecasts are tracking more with #2, and as seen over the past day the models that have been trending toward #2 are more closely aligned with the actual track Irene has taken. However, there is no guarantee that that trend will continue as Irene draws closer to the trough.

A couple things about the GFDL and GFDN models: These models are based on global models. The GFDL uses the AVN while the GFDN uses the NOGAPS. Neither the AVN nor the NOGAPS is showing the westward jog, even though over the past two days the GFDL/N have both been showing westward jogs. Given that the GFDL/N are regional models with boundary conditions determined by the global model output, it is possible that they are developing the trough differently from the global models. Really hard to tell, though, with the output data available to the public.

Given the track record of the GFDL in past storms, I never dismiss that model. It is right a surprising amount of the time (though I have also seen it be very wrong). Therefore one must realistically consider that the jogs seen in the various Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab models are possible (this includes GFDL, GFDN, GFDT, GFDI, GFNI, and GFTI). BTW, anyone know what global model the T variant is based on? (FYI: the GF*I models are the runs that focus on intensity over position; while the GFD* runs focus on position over intensity.)

Hope this helps answer your question!

Ed Dunham or Clark Evans would be able to much better explain this than me!

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 27 2011 12:50 AM)


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TXEB
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91968 - Sat Aug 27 2011 07:20 AM

Thanks, Random Chaos! That answer helps a good bit.

As I understood, both GFDL and HWRF are regional models that get their boundary conditions from the same GFS global model. GFDL is clearly reacting to something that HWRF is not. How the models calculate the interaction with that trough forming in the Great Lakes region must be the issue. The trough is moving across within the common westerly flow and it would appear from the NHC forecast track and discussion that the resident expertise there has largely dismissed much direct influence of the trough on Irene's track and weighted heavily toward steady movement with the westerlies themselves.

Edit 10:00 EDT -- looks like GFDL is now giving up the jog and coming back toward the others.

Edited by TXEB (Sat Aug 27 2011 10:04 AM)


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