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Archives >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91460 - Sun Aug 21 2011 09:59 AM

While the CoC is technically in the Eastern Caribbean. The Main convection is slightly separated and over the Atlantic Ocean. The terrain doesn't appear to be influencing the system a whole lot. Based on the Eye dropsonde earlier. The drop did show SSW winds a the 4900 foot level. But that could be due to a lop-sided storm.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:01 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91461 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:05 AM

Added radar recording of Puerto Rico long range radar here.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:05 AM)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91462 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:26 AM

That almost sounds like Mike though it might miss the weakness?It remains to be seen.I have felt this season the models have had a definite affinity to want to move all system to the right no matter how weak they are even when the UL winds go W.

Thks for the loop <img src="http://image5.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:05 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: javlin]
      #91463 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:47 AM

Until the ECMWF and the GFS tilts more west into the GOM on days 4-5.. this will probably be along or east of Florida by Weds night or Thurs.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:25 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91464 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:47 AM

Current San Juan radar does show that - for now, at least - Irene has resumed a due west track. Visible loop also confirms the due west motion. The dryness that I saw on the AVN loop a couple of hours ago has reduced somewhat, too... and outflow to the north is incredible right now. That would be disrupted if the LLC stays south of Hispanola, and really disrupted if it goes over the mountains of the D.R.

Update: 11am Advisory is out. Hurricane Warning issued for Puerto Rico.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:25 AM)


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javlin
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Hugh]
      #91465 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:59 AM

I agree Scott but the models always seem to tilt right.The movement is definitly started to the due W ATTM and I am starting to think she's going to go S of the Islands which if this pans out is a concern?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:25 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: javlin]
      #91466 - Sun Aug 21 2011 11:40 AM

A few of you may notice that I edited quite a few posts. I changed the top of the posts from
Tropical Storm Emily Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea;
To...

Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea

That's all I did. Thanks.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:41 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91467 - Sun Aug 21 2011 11:42 AM

Quote:

A few of you may notice that I edited quite a few posts. I changed the top of the posts from
Tropical Storm Emily Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea;
To...

Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea

That's all I did. Thanks.




ooops..... well, they're both women, right? LOL

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Hugh]
      #91469 - Sun Aug 21 2011 12:25 PM

Wind speeds and temperatures from the NE Quadrant. From the latest dropsonde.
Just East-Northeast of Saint Eustatius Island.

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 120° (from the ESE) 44 knots (51 mph)
1000mb 64m (210 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 125° (from the SE) 42 knots (48 mph)
925mb 748m (2,454 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 21.3°C (70.3°F) 125° (from the SE) 41 knots (47 mph)
850mb 1,480m (4,856 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 14.5°C (58.1°F) 140° (from the SE) 51 knots (59 mph)

I wonder if Recon will recover to San Juan or St Croix. St Croix is just west of the Center and looks like it will pass over the Island. Turn on the instruments and measure from the ground.... Nah, never mind.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 12:28 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91474 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:26 PM

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 (edited~danielw)

RELEASING EARLY TO UPDATE WARNINGS...

...N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S
OF 22N W OF 55W...

PER NHC GUIDANCE...TS IRENE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO
MOVE NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INCREASING TO A MINIMAL
HURCN BEFORE REACHING HISPANIOLA MON MORNING...MAINTAIN TS
STRENGTH AS IT DISSECTS HISPANIOLA REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TUE...MOVE ALONG THE NE COAST OF CUBA TUE NIGHT...THEN REGAIN
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH WED IN FL STRAITS BEFORE MOVING
INLAND S FL MIDDAY THU. UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IS THE EXACT
TRACK AND DETERIORATION DUE TO LANDMASS ENCOUNTERS.

OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91475 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:40 PM

Recon just found another center jump northward(nearly half of a degree) as well as a pressure drop of 8 mb. There is no intense blob of convection firing over the center, but the core is organizing.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 21/17:02:00Z
B. 17 deg 23 min N
063 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 43 kt
E. 251 deg 8 nm
F. 033 deg 40 kt
G. 301 deg 36 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1530 m
J. 21 C / 1519 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 15:44:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 194 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR


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MichaelA
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #91476 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:46 PM

Looking at the sat loops, it appears that Irene is wobbling along a generally WNW track - Jog to the NW followed by a jog to the W, repeat. At any rate, the interactions with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and potentially Cuba will likely keep the system weak. Depending on a turn to a more northerly direction - when and where - I don't see a chance for strengthening much unless Irene goes over the Bahamas and stays East of Florida.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #91477 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:46 PM

The shift north is better news for Florida, as chances are going down for a landfall there, worse news for South Carolina/Georgia though. Still if the trends continue the recurve/not recurve chances approach 50/50 (Right now odds favor it not recurving, but that is dropping too.) The NHC's general cone is still good, however.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91478 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:08 PM

The shift was due Northwest of the last 1007mb Center fix. Or 0.46661691N and 0.4167W in 1 hour and 34 minutes.

My concern is with the Center temperatures. The vacuum is working, to a degree.
Inside eye/ center temperature is 6 degrees Celsius higher than outside the eye/ center.

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)


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Hugh
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91480 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:22 PM

Looks like the recon took the "look out the window, guys" viewpoint.
While the last vortex fix showed a due northwest shift in the LLC... the radar appears to me to still show an almost due west motion of the apparently circulation. This could just be my eyes, but it could indicate that the radar is showing a MLC which is not well stacked with the LLC. The most recent visible image, however, appears to show an eye-like pinhole where I estimate that the LLC is (could be dry air - water vapor image shows dry air in the southern part of the circulation).
I think it's a bit early to tell much of anything from the possible short-term northward shift, though. It could shift back to the west in a few hours.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Joeyfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91481 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:31 PM

I think its much to soon to say whether or not its going further west into eastern Gulf, Up Floirda (NHC currently), or up Florida east coast. I think it will become more clear in next 24-48 hours. I agree with current NHC track for now. But I am a little more concerned about the intensity especially late in period but again we won't know how Irene will interact with mountains or stair step its way around the higher elevations. Time will tell...

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91487 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:26 PM

The outflow on the northern side of the system has the look of a western Pacific storm, the south side, not so much, with the pressure drop the center may be on its way to stabilizing. But if it were to recenter again, it may be further northward to match the pattern. Still it is going to be a nasty evening in Puerto Rico.

If the poleward outflow takes over, it would tend to draw it north of Hispaniola, but with the ridge holding above it, it brings more risk toward the Carolinas vs Florida, abut at the same time the chance of a full recurve from the US goes up a bit (still unfortunately an outlier at this time since a trough that would be needed to kick it out just doesn't seem to be coming). There is still quite a bit up in the air with the system, but it appears the storm may trend toward the eastern/right side of the forecast cone. The track at 5PM likely won't change much since you would need a few runs of the models to keep a trend, especially with this system.


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NewWatcher
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91488 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:33 PM

I dunno I cant see much of a full recuve with the ridge building back in at the end of the period. Fla, GA, SC, NC all seem good bets at this point. In two days we will know significantly more.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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WeatherNut
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91489 - Sun Aug 21 2011 04:17 PM

Looks like Irene is forming an eyewall as we speak and it is showing up pretty good on SJU long range radar. The models have also seemed to move a little north with several only skimming the NE coast of the DMR.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Joeyfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91490 - Sun Aug 21 2011 04:47 PM

Irene's center getting ready to pass right over st Croix as we speak, lowest pressure 1003-1004 there right now and they are just west of the center with sustained northerly winds around 30mph at some of the northern coast personal weather stations. It looks as though Irene maybe getting bit stronger based on radar with center closing off some. It looks like a nasty night in Puerto Rico tonight as Irene's center looks to pass over the southern coast of that island. Side note models back to the east on latest runs, but I expect more of this for next 24-48 hours as I am still concerned that that trough does not look overly deep and not so sure about a hard turn north but time will tell FL to Carolina's need to watch closely.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dl...zoom=&time=


Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands (CHSV3) has winds out of north at 29 gusts to 37mph with pressure down to 1002 mb. This station is located on northeast side of island of St Croix.


Edited by Joeyfl (Sun Aug 21 2011 05:05 PM)


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