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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 265
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91393 - Sat Aug 20 2011 10:32 AM

The latest GFS has 97L going right up the spine of the peninsula of FL. I would suspect that a betteer grip will be had on Sunday night on a decent track. Just saw teh local Orlando WESH news and they had a fairly narrow band track coming right into the peninsula of FL.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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B.C.Francis
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Reged: Sat
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91401 - Sat Aug 20 2011 12:52 PM

Still to early to make any definate land fall predictions. But just for the heck of it, lets say this system does get its act together( which seems likely) what would be a rough estimate next week when this system could be churning somewhere near or on the Florida peninsula. I have 2 high end weddings next weekend and I like to keep our clients informed in case we have to make alternate plans. Right now I informed them that there is something lurking way down South East of Central Florida so be aware. It is what it is.

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91404 - Sat Aug 20 2011 01:29 PM

Well, am starting to lean towards a track forecast that would contend with the far greater wisdom of the present models. I am going to go out on a limb here, and anticipate that 97L will be tagged as a depression by tomm. ( Sunday morning ), and as it continues to slowly strengthen, will pass north of Hispanola, perhaps crossing only the extreme most northeastern corner of the island.

Despite the close clustering of the majority of the models, I am starting to get an increasing concern that 97L will develop farther north than currently anticipated. Furthermore, should this occur, along with having to re-establish the models "intial" point, current motion would need to be taken into consideration as well.

At the moment, I beleive the initialization point ( and more westward motion ), could be replaced once the system is eventually tagged as a depression. Once this occurs as well as follow up "fixes" continue to verify actual motion, my concern is that the newer forecast tracks will indicate greater threat to Puerto Rico and less of a threat to HIspanola. Should this pan out, than the level of concern for potentially a stronger hurricane to eventually occur would be greater due to less land interaction. I don't think this would change the threat level for South or East Coast of Florida. For that matter, the most recent long range GFS steering would make me think that any storm that might approach Florida from the ESE, would continue into the Eastern Gulf. Thereafter, strong ridging to the north could cause an ongoing westward motion to a virtual stall in the E. Gulf
.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91406 - Sat Aug 20 2011 03:39 PM

It has been my experience and that is limited, that all the guidance models that come out and name a Florida landfall at the beginning of a system, the guidance usually moves to the right or the left of the original model runs. I have pretty much adopted the thought that if Florida is named first it is not likely to experience the storm system. However, the more toward Florida the storm is, the more likely some Florida involvement will take place. The guidance in this 97l storm is interesting to watch. By the time it gets to a landfall it could very well be in east Texas and they need the rain very badly.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91408 - Sat Aug 20 2011 03:51 PM

Well, it is way too early for anyone to here in FL to panic. Just be aware and stay up to date on any developments over the next few days and just be prepared to react if needed. The models won't gel until there are several runs on a definite, developed system. Considering the consistency from run to run so far, it is safe to say that there could be a problem anywhere from the central Gulf coast all the way to Cape Hatteras later next week. Everyone simply should just be aware of that for now. I have my contingency plans refined in my head and I'm prepared to act on those if the need arises. Between now and next Thursday, Friday, Saturday, a lot of variables will come into play.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91409 - Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM

This system is interesting today, it's not that organized, but it does look amazing on satellite. The models, Euro is a bit east (Still along Florida), GFS is insane (right up the spine of Florida). Ensemble GFS is in the Gulf, CMC expects it to basically slow down and maybe meander (possibly in the Gulf, or worse over Florida). The spread is from the Central Gulf up to South Carolina, with the more reliable ones shooting the middle.

The fact the westerlies may not be strong enough to kick it out, means it may just sit for longer than expected, or move further westward than indicated. For such consistency throughout the models this week . The good news is at least for now, it may be on the weaker side.

12Z Model rundown:

GFDL does not really grasp it at all, and shuffles it to the west and keeps it an open wave.
HRWF takes it over eastern Cuba and the run ends just before approaching South Florida. as a hurricane
EURO In caribbean, south of Haiti, through Eastern Cuba, up into South Floida and along the spine of Florida along the eastern side of the state. as a hurricane
GFS Operational: In Caribbean South of Haiti, Through Eastern Cuba, up into the Keys Friday, and straight up the center of Florida, leaving the dirty (NE)( side of the system in S. Fl, E CFl, and Jax. as a hurricane
Canadian: In Caribbean, Over Jamaica, over Western Cuba into the eastern Gulf. Run Ends before US Landfall.
NOGAPS: Caribbean, over haiti, eastern Cuba, into Eastern Gulf, and then near Tampa at end of the Run.
TVCN: Into Southeast Florida, and through the Spine of the State, out at Jacksonville.

The west/east bias is talked about in the HPC discussions, which implies more Florida risk, or a possible stall.

Bottom line, news is about the same, until a real system forms it's still bit of a guessing game. But odds do favor some sort of landfall in the US, how strong and exactly where are not known.
For the united states, those in the southeastern US, Florida, and North Central Gulf coasts need to watch this one. In the Caribbean, basically all the northern islands of the Caribbean, from Leewards, VI, PR, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica. Bahamas not so much.




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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 821
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91421 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:40 PM

It would be my estimate that 97L is beginning to organize around a cyclonic center near 14.8/57.2. The low levels seem to be focusing there. It is right in the center of the entire system. If so and all the convection NE and west of that point remains in tact there should be plenty to work with.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Sat Aug 20 2011 05:47 PM)


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Edski
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: Palm Harbor, Florida, USA 28.08N 82.74W
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91432 - Sat Aug 20 2011 06:51 PM

As this system seems to now be Irene, and the model tracks are all tighly clustered and seem to hit every land mass that it can between where it is and Florida, I'm not going to freak out. But it will be time to prepare...

If this storm does hit Hispanola, travel up the spine of Cuba, then up the Florida peninsula, it's hard to imagine it being all that strong when it gets near me in the Tampa area...of course it it does at all.

Getting interesting.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Edski]
      #91433 - Sat Aug 20 2011 07:07 PM

Charley, Jeanne and Frances echo through my mind. Charley was awesome in its travel through Polk County. This is starting to remind me of the storm that hit Miami and the models went one direction and the storm went another. I think that storm was named Irene or Iris. This will be an interesting week with the other invests also coming into the field of view.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 133
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91440 - Sat Aug 20 2011 10:54 PM

Irene does not look well organized and to threaten FL she needs to cross Hispaniola, which just shredded TS Emily, or move off her predicted track, and then seize threatening FL. What is the likelihood that Irene with *both* strengthen to, say, H1 strength, and make landfall in FL?

I might be missing something, but I don't feel too threatened (yet?)

Do you?

(Post moved to the more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 20 2011 11:26 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91441 - Sat Aug 20 2011 11:12 PM

There is no way of knowing what She will do until she does it. The models are still crunching numbers and the xupporting atmosphere could change . I wonder how much the remains of Harvey will effedt her if she goes off on a westerly track.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 20 2011 11:27 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #91443 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:48 AM

I really think you cannot expect the same result from Irene that we had from Emily.

A lot of Ifs... if she is reforming more to the NW then it's obvious the models will pull to the right.

If she goes up and over the islands, that would be a serious problem as the water in the Turks and Caicos is very hot and would support rapid strengthening... if... she slows down she would strengthen more.

It's early in the game and a lot may change over the next 24 to 48 hours so hang tough and keep watching.

The cone covers all of South Florida right now... that's both coasts not just Miami.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #91444 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:05 AM

I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days. My assumptions are usually correct so Its a good bet 60% or
more that this might only bring some squalls at most to the east coast of Florida.

Reasons... Formation of the center is further NE.. Model trend on the ECMWF is more east near Nassau and I think it will end up just east of there heading NNW by Thurs near 25N and 76W and get no closer than 79W making landfall in S Carolina.

I could be wrong... but this was suppose to form around 15N and 63W by Sunday morning.. it's already around 16.2N as of this post and 61W... only chance this has of making Florida is a west turn on Sunday (cause its more WNW right now) and its LLC get pulled W of the midlevel Circulation over Haiti due to landfall around 18N and 70W exiting around Port-A-Prince Haiti and then going inland over SE Cuba keeping this a 50mph Tropical Storm until it comes off around 78W and 23N...but that just probably not going to happen...probably come off near Labadee Haiti moving WNW and moving NW thru middle of the Bahamas.


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91445 - Sun Aug 21 2011 06:39 AM

"DEEP LAYER RIDGING HAS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POSITION OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN U.S..."

That's been the story all summer, and there's no indication this ridge will break down anytime soon. Especially if Irene strengthens, I look to see the forecasts trending down in forward speed, and moving more towards the right. Fish storm, or possibly an OBX approach.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #91448 - Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 AM

At the current time, 8:28AM EDT. Only ONE of the 8 models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ has Irene going away from the East Coast of Florida.
And that is the GFDL. At the 120 hour mark it is centered near Key West, Fl and the Dry Tortugas.

All of the other 7 models either brush or strike the East Coast of Florida in the 5 day frame.

The Whole Florida Peninsula is in the 5 day Cone of Certainty for Irene at this point. So please make sure that you have begun your Storm Preparations.

Models Change every 6 to 12 hours don't wait until it's too Late.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91468 - Sun Aug 21 2011 12:10 PM

( I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days)quoted.
Scott you do seem to have a sense of what will happen in these storms. Has your opinion changed since this last post I quoted? I have made my preparations and now am looking forward to seeing which of the models or if all of the models will ever agree on its position. It seems that a H. warning has been issued for Puerto Rico. SO your scenario is looking healthy.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91470 - Sun Aug 21 2011 12:49 PM

Irene has a better chance of moving east of the Bahamas then going into the GOM.

I still dont see her getting past 79W and 30N.. but that is 6 days out still... Right now I
see her moving up the bahamas.. the current 12Z GFS is inline pretty much and wouldnt
surprise me to see Irene go even further east.. Florida isn't 100% out of the woods..but
it would have to weaken and move more W on Monday-Tuesday for this to have a chance
to make Florida.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91471 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:06 PM

The 12Z models are rolling in, and the trend has a bit more eastward.
GFDL 12Z: Over Puerto Rico, Over entire length of Hispaniola, over eastern half of Cuba, Emerges into Florida Straits on Thursday, over Key west Friday, up entire western Spine of Florida.
HWRF: Takes Irene over Dominican Republic and north avoiding Haiti, avoids Florida well to the East, rim ends with storm nearing Charleston, SC
Euro: Over PR, Clips Dominican Republic, deepens rapidly at 72 hours out north of Hispaniola... Enters Southwest Bahams 96 hours out... stays east of Florida barely misses WPB Friday... Landfall south of Charleston, SC Saturday as a major hurricane... still running...
GFS 12Z: over Dominican Republic, misses Cuba, through the western Bahamas, stays east of Florida, landfall near Hilton Head, SC Saturday.
Canadian: Keeps system off east coast (brushes Outer Banks) ... Hope this trend continues
NOGAPS: Keeps it east of Florida, Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday.
TCVN: Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday
UKMET: Enters it into the Gulf

So far the trend is looking better for Florida, less so for the Carolinas. It is good to see the chance of a recurve before the US going up, but it's still way too low for comfort (Although it may soon be 50/50 again). The catch is, Irene is still not the best defined system, and the "Center" is jumping around a bit which can mean a lot for eventual landfall position. The more northerly position may very well be a good sign for Florida. Still the NHC's cone looks pretty good.



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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #91472 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:09 PM

Absolutely Daniel. I would hope that everyone that takes the time to post (or even browse) this site and lives in the fire zone would have their preps done (before they’re ‘rushed to completion’). My point is with the model trends. Irene continues to skew right, and will have many mountains (literally) to climb.

Much like Ivan trended left; 5-day said Tampa Bay, then Cedar Key, Aplalach, then finally Pensacola. The discussion mentioned weak disturbances in the upper flow, and any one of these could pick it up. Wishcasting? Maybe, but this is the appropriate forum…


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #91473 - Sun Aug 21 2011 01:20 PM

This is for Model discussion. Or discussion of the models.

Very few tropical cyclones that I can recall stick with the models. In part due to upper air changes, land topography and tweaking of the models. And don't forget Center re-positioning.

Ivan, Andrew, Katrina, Charley and the list goes on.
I think Charley receives the Right Turn, Clyde Award for last minute turns. But the turn was visible on radar and by Recon.

Scottsvb and others have valid points in their posts. It's just too early to tell where Irene will go. The Cone does include All of the Florida Peninsula at present. That may or may not change in the next 5 days.


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