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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91673 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:01 AM

Partial Model rundown this morning:

0z Euro last night, landfall near wilmington, NC cat 4 late Saturday night/Sunday Morning, and over New York City Monday.

0z GFDL has shifted east of Florida, closest approach 80 miles (takes Irene right over Freeport on Grand Bahama), slows Irene down, last frame is just south of Myrtle Beach about 90 miles or so.

0z HRWF takes makes landfall north of Charleston, SC on Saturday.

6z GFS Starts off slightly northeast of 0z GFS position in 48 hours, a bit further east, 200 miles East of Florida. Just clips the eastern part of the outer banks near Cape Hatteras on Saturday. Landfall Newport, RI Sunday, moves over Boston, MA then back over water, another Landfall Monday east of Portland, ME

6z GFDL has shifted even further east, landfall near Morehead City, NC

Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 23 2011 08:29 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91674 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:30 AM

The model trend remains more to the East of Florida - still not letting my guard down just yet. The NHC track forecasts have been very good to excellent the last few years, so I have little reason to doubt this one. Folks along the entire Eastern Seaboard need to think about beginning their storm preparations today and tomorrow. The potential for Irene to become a severe to extreme storm is high, especially if it remains over the Gulf Stream for an extended period.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91677 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:44 AM

I like the long-term eastward trend in the model forecasts. Never hurts to go through the preparedness actions, even if Irene never makes landfall. Better prepared than sorry.

Edited by RevUp (Tue Aug 23 2011 06:54 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #91684 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:09 AM

.Ill stand by what i said 4 days ago.It will brush NC at the most and i stand by that.

But again this is just my opinion looking at the trends

(no content trash-talk removed)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 23 2011 04:34 PM)


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BryanG
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: North of Tampa, FL
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #91685 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:17 AM

Not sure if this is the proper place to post this question ... but it seems logical.

As this storm strengthens and moves on up the coast of Florida, how will it effect the west coast of Florida. I do not expect winds to really worry about, but I found it interesting to watch the images of her pulling so much moisture across Hispaniola and over those mountains. Would it be possible to see this storm pull a lot of moisture from the gulf to help feed her? If it does that,would Florida see some pretty high rain levels as a result? Or is it going to be too far from the gulf to have any interaction?


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91687 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:30 AM

It has been my experience that a hurricane in the Atlantic along the eastern seaboard pulls moisture off of Florida but does not usually effect the Gulf. They are saying this is a large storm but will be far enough away to only cause rough seas and surf on the coast. The final answer to your question is that if this storm stays where it is forecast to be, there will probably be a few dryer days. However, for those of us in the center and western part of Florida I have noticed an invest of 90L which looks to be in our back yard.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Wingwiper
Registered User


Reged: Sat
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91688 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:45 AM

Quote:

.....how will it effect the west coast of Florida......


Irene is larger than "normal", with TS winds out 205 miles, but expected to strengthen. If it takes the currently forecast path with a closest approach to the east coast of approx 150 miles, theoretically that would put the western edge of the TS winds about mid-peninsula.

But after getting caught 5-10 miles from the eye of Charlie when it was "supposed" to go into Tampa Bay, I don't place as much faith in the projections as I used to..........

Edited by Wingwiper (Tue Aug 23 2011 09:56 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91690 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM

Quote:

Not sure if this is the proper place to post this question ... but it seems logical.

As this storm strengthens and moves on up the coast of Florida, how will it effect the west coast of Florida. I do not expect winds to really worry about, but I found it interesting to watch the images of her pulling so much moisture across Hispaniola and over those mountains. Would it be possible to see this storm pull a lot of moisture from the gulf to help feed her? If it does that,would Florida see some pretty high rain levels as a result? Or is it going to be too far from the gulf to have any interaction?




It would create an area of sustenance, and may be a bit breezy, but dry. The extreme east coast is probably the only area to even get a hint of Tropical Storm conditions, which may be very light to next to nothing if it trends more eastward. High surf and minor beach erosion will be a problem regardless. Based on that, maybe 20-30mph winds along the beach, maybe slightly higher gusts at closest approach.


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Wingwiper]
      #91691 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM

Would mid-peninsula hold true for TS winds for Volusia County then?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91694 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:42 AM


As for this storm i still go by what i said days ago and that is more and more east and may even miss the NC coast when all is said and done.

(Material that should have been sent in a PM was deleted.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 23 2011 04:42 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #91699 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:57 AM

At this point again i do not see any TS winds for Florida unless something drastic changes.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: BryanG]
      #91702 - Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM

Did Irene just take a jog down towards Haiti?

Looking at Inagua Nat'l Park (that island part of Turks?)
as a marker.

And can it get any closer to land w/o actually affecting the 'eye'?

And another btw. Shouldn't a Cat 2 have an eye?

Thanx, All
Great site. And discussion.


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91704 - Tue Aug 23 2011 11:45 AM

@ Mike and Danny,

I noted your concerns that my Sunday morning prediction of an 'out-to-sea' or Outer Banks strong hurricane might give Florida residents and tourists a false sense of security. Yet, this IS the Forecast Lounge, where amateur met's can use their instincts and knowledge of past storms to try their luck.

I also realize that this could be dangerous, and wanted to take a moment to implore all coastal/near-coastal residents to make their hurricane plans, stock up on the essentials and review these plans when a threat occurs.

Mods, is this a fair statement? I'd hate to see future posters scared off because our guesses (or yes, wishes) don't match NHC’s cone of uncertainty...


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #91707 - Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 PM

My concern per the above is this Auto Default to the computer models.

Land interaction, like the GFDL, is not well understood with these models.

And Irene is now tracking South of every Clark9Latest....taking dead aim on Inagua
Nat'l Park (Turks?) Island....


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91713 - Tue Aug 23 2011 01:22 PM

Off topic, that's why I post this here. What is the area that seems to be forming off the Northeast coast of Florida this morning?

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: k___g]
      #91721 - Tue Aug 23 2011 02:31 PM

IT appears to be forming off of that trough that is supposed to influence Irene towards the north. It wouled bd very interesting to see another system spring up and figure out the forecast on that. There is also an invest near the Yucatan Peninsula that would give west Florida a little something to think about since Irene is not going to be our storm.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91722 - Tue Aug 23 2011 02:37 PM

Those are just a blob of unorganized thunderstorms at the base of the trough.

The 12Z Guidance is out for HWRF and GFDL, GFDL shifted east to cross over the outer banks then up into the Delmarva.

HWRF is pretty close to the GFDL.

12Z GFS clips outer banks then slams into Long Island, so does Canadian.

Early 12Z Euro indicates landfall near Morehead City

All of these models keep Irene over 150 miles east of Florida.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91727 - Tue Aug 23 2011 03:30 PM

As i said a few days back the GFDL would come back in line and did when it got the info needed.But this storm has done what a few of us stated a few days back and that is to keep trending east.I really now give it a 10% chance to hit any land direct as in making US landfall.

This is and has been my forecast but always follow what the NHC says.

Edited by ralphfl (Tue Aug 23 2011 05:48 PM)


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91735 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:37 PM

This is a repost because my other one disappeared. Can a hurricane get strong enough to make it's own steering currents and ignore what is out there trying to steer it?

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Floridacane]
      #91737 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:55 PM

Quote:

This is a repost because my other one disappeared. Can a hurricane get strong enough to make it's own steering currents and ignore what is out there trying to steer it?




Yes but only the extremely strong (Category 5) type storms normally can, but even then they are only in weak general steering conditions.


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