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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Area of Interest - TD #10
      #91836 - Thu Aug 25 2011 03:20 AM

As of just past midnight on Thursday August 25th (Wednesday overnight), Invest 90L was located in the vicinity of 12.3N 31W, and heading in a general westerly direction, with maximum sustained winds estimated at about 35MPH.

NHC is now giving this feature a 90% chance of becoming an officiated tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and has mentioned that advisories could begin as soon as this morning.

Here is a recent IR image of Invest 90L taken at 0615Z on Aug 25




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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Area of Interest - TD #10 [Re: cieldumort]
      #91858 - Thu Aug 25 2011 11:27 AM

Invest 90L was upgraded this morning to TD #10. After initially looking very good on satellite, TEN has weakened a bit, and now appears elongated, disheveled, and lacking in deep convection, barely holding on as a tropical cyclone.

Forecasts had plotted TEN as a more developed system to begin turning to the northwest in short order, but the current weakening phase may call that into question should TEN not pick back up soon.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Area of Interest - TD #10 [Re: cieldumort]
      #92040 - Mon Aug 29 2011 02:14 PM

The Final Advisory on TEN was written at 11PM EDT Friday August, 27, located at 16.0N 34.0W. At that time what was left of TEN was characterized by a stretched ne-sw, and barely definable, low level center, with just a touch of convection remaining.

As of 1PM EDT August 29, remnants of TEN are flaring up, with low level convergence occurring around 21.5N 36.5W, and it appears that a LLC is trying to become established. However, the environment around these remnants of TEN is unfavorable for significant, near-term development. Shear looks to be a potent 30-40 knots over the disturbance, although on the other hand, no doubt is at least partly responsible for the increased convective activity. Given the strong shear, as well as its close proximity to the much larger TD12, the potential for near-term development back in to a tropical cyclone will likely continue to be inhibited, but no longer made impossible.

If trends continue, NHC may begin tracking TEN's remnants again, given a slight chance of redevelopment.


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