Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 95L located well to the west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 10.0N 31.8W at 06/01Z with winds of 25 knots and pressure at 1009MB. The system is moving westward at 9 knots. The system continues to show improvement in organization and although forward speed will increase a little over the next couple of days, additional development seems likely. Through Thursday wind shear should remain light as the system moves westward to west northwestward over SSTs of about 28C. Late in the week pockets of shear will impede the intensification process (its getting to be that time of year) but some additional development is still possible. The Atlantic ridge should rebuild behind a departing Hurricane Katia and keep the 95L system on more of a southerly track - 95L is already about 150 miles south of the earlier Katia track.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 07 2011 09:43 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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TD 14 is still in the formative stage but overall structure is improving. adjusted the center to the south at 07/03Z, but not yet enough - at 04Z the center is closer to 11.4N 37.7W. adjusted the track further south for the first 72 hours of the forecast. With the center likely to be even further to the south, the day 4 and day 5 points may eventually require a similar adjustment, however, until the center gets firmly established the forecast track is going to have some variability to it.
In about another 24 to 30 hours, strong west to northwesterly wind shear is going to have a significant impact on the intensification process as the system approaches the Leeward Islands.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Storm Maria has a rough road ahead of it. A large upper low near 33N 40W at 08/04Z is diving south and compressing the ridge over Maria. As a result, Maria is flying westward at about 20 knots. Maria is under the influence of southwesterly shear that is destined to get stronger. Another upper level low is moving westward and should be near 24N 63W on Friday at about 12Z. This low is going to put Maria in the face of strong westerly and eventually northwesterly shear before Maria ever gets to the northern Leeward Island area. Antigua has issued the following:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...
AND SAINT KITTS.
Current winds are at 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots, but additional intensification is not likely - in fact, quite the opposite may occur, with weakening as Maria hits the wall of shear. There may not be too much of an organized system left after three or four days. If Maria survives the shear as a weaker system, a more west northwesterly track could occur.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'm really not quite sure where the center of Maria is located except that, if you extrapolate the 09/03Z position, there has been an increase in convection in the general area of the circulation. Because of that, the now has the following Watches/Warnings in effect:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT
KITTS
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA.
Maria continues to move westward at a rapid pace and it may take until morning light to determine if Maria is still a closed system.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Maria is now a low-level swirl located about 175 miles north northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The center has been stationary for the last 6 hours indicating that the cyclone has reached the western extent of the Atlantic ridge in the lower levels. Convection, which had been displaced about 100 miles to the east of the center earlier this morning, is now slowly moving its way westward toward the center. For the moment windshear has probably relaxed a bit, but the outlook is for shear to continue so redevelopment/intensification will not happen unless the convection can make it all the way back to the center.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 15/21Z, Maria was upgraded to a Cat I hurricane located just over 1,000 miles south southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, moving north northeast at 31 knots. Some additional intensification is possible tonight before the hurricane encounters colder SSTs. On Friday the forward speed is likely to increase to almost 50 knots. Maria will weaken on Friday but should still be close to hurricane strength as she approaches eastern Newfoundland.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 16/15Z, Maria was located about 200 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, moving rapidly to the northeast at 45 knots. Maria was still being maintained as a hurricane - probably more for continuity and forecast verification than anything else, since the cloud pattern has become stratified and the SSTs are a very chilly non-tropical 16.5C. Winds will remain at a strong gale strength and I suspect that Maria could remain as a separate entity just ahead of a strong cold front heading for Newfoundland. The system will likely merge with that front late tonight as a weaker storm nears southern Greenland.
Weather Conditions at Cape Race, Newfoundland
ED
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