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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Storm Forum

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate
      #92186 - Tue Sep 06 2011 03:44 PM

The Bay of Campeche system is now 96L with a 1008 MLB low and estimated winds of 25mph.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 07 2011 11:16 PM)


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Area of interest 96L [Re: doug]
      #92188 - Tue Sep 06 2011 04:17 PM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011

THE MAIN AREAS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE EASTERN LOW...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z DGEX MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL OR HYBRID LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALLOWING IT TO MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00-06Z GFS...SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PRIOR GFS RUNS ALONG WITH MANY 00-06Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THUS...THIS SCENARIO DESERVES SOME MERIT.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Area of interest 96L [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #92194 - Tue Sep 06 2011 11:23 PM

Patience...patience...patience...I read that same discussion earlier today...this system will be with us for quite some time given the upper air pattern across Pac NW, Canada and Post-Tropical Lee and its upper air cutoff low.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate [Re: doug]
      #92204 - Wed Sep 07 2011 11:14 PM

Tropical Storm Nate located about 135 miles west northwest of Campeche, Mexico, at 08/03Z - and drifting east with sustained winds of 40 knots (probably generous) and a central pressure of 1003MB. The following Tropical Storm Warning is in effect:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

Earlier today Campeche reported sustained winds of 35mph - in the past few hours the pressure at Campeche has been on the rise.
Campeche Current Weather Conditions

Most (but not all) of the convection is displaced to the south of the center. The high resolution models support a slow movement to the north and then west over the next few days, however, there really are no steering currents for the next couple of days so a very slow and erratic drift is likely. With the trough in place from the Bay of Campeche northeastward across the Florida peninsula also stationary for the moment, an eventual drift with some northward component seems reasonable. The reliability of any projection beyond two days is probably small.

There is south to southwesterly shear along the trough - some of it moderate - so I'm not in the same camp with regard to Nate eventually reaching hurricane status- especially since the shear zone is progged to remain in place for two or three days. SSTs are certainly warm enough to support some intensification if the cyclone doesn't get sheared apart or drift over land before the shear abates.
ED


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92205 - Wed Sep 07 2011 11:44 PM

I am not too sure about Nate reaching Hurricane status either. (A minimal Hurricane with winds of 75 mph likely, but >80 mph not so sure.) The latest NAM shows a weaker system than past runs previously forecasted. Depending on where the mid-level low cuts off across the East Central US, Nate may be impacted by decent shear throughout much of the forecast period. Looking at the CIMSS site, I see the dry air (courtesy of Texas) that the NHC was referring to in their latest discussion. I am not sure if this will be a significant factor, if Nate organizes as models suggest. He could very well close off with little dry air intrusion. A very interesting situation with Nate. I'm sure things will become clearer over the next few days, though.

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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01

Edited by WesnWylie (Wed Sep 07 2011 11:46 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate [Re: WesnWylie]
      #92207 - Thu Sep 08 2011 09:29 AM

Looking at models this morning there seems to be much less certainty about where Nate is headed. Before, the more reliable models trended it to the north then west. Right now, several of those have swung way over toward the east. I know it is still a weak system and hard to get a handle on. Any strong feelings from the Mets out there about whether this thing could slide up that frontal boundary an into Florida later in the week?

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #92210 - Thu Sep 08 2011 12:17 PM

The latest GFS runs on Maria and Nate are pretty ominous. GFS has been very reliable all year, but ECMWF is the one that seems to be the most reliable on these two systems, at least according to the NHC. The European has never really grabbed onto Maria and still doesn't, and sends Nate toward northern Mexico (perhaps the best solution for parched Texas).
Lots of model divergence on these two systems.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92220 - Fri Sep 09 2011 12:46 AM

Nate has now drifted north of 20N latitude - located at 20.2N 92.1W at 09/04Z. The center is again exposed this evening with convection displaced to the south of the center. It is difficult to envision a 60 knot tropical storm under such sheared conditions, however, the pressure has dropped to 994MB.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Nate [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92232 - Sat Sep 10 2011 07:32 PM

Although surface pressure has increased, northerly windshear has decreased and outflow has improved in the northern portion of the cyclone. Convection is also wrapping around the center so chances for additional development have again increased. Nate had been drifting west and currently the system is almost stationary, but a slow westward or west southwestward motion should resume this evening. Updated Watches/Warnings are as follows:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO NORTH OF TUXPAN
* MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO NORTH OF TUXPAN
* MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

ED


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