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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Maria Forecast Lounge
      #92175 - Mon Sep 05 2011 03:22 PM

This is the forecast lounge for the area in the Central Atlantic known as 95L.

Early model runs suggest a danger to the Northern Leeward ISlands and Northern Islands of the Caribbean, with a curve north over the Bahamas. These early model runs don't really have a good handle on the system, so there is a lot that could change.


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LoisCane
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Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92180 - Mon Sep 05 2011 10:07 PM

The system known as 95 is getting closer to a name or designated status I think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-wv.html

NRL put up a track...looking better and better and think it's getting closer to prime time.

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doug
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Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92185 - Tue Sep 06 2011 03:10 PM

3:00 p.m. NRL has re-designated this to AL 14

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doug

Edited by doug (Tue Sep 06 2011 03:17 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92191 - Tue Sep 06 2011 08:46 PM

Based on the model runs, TD#14 likely will be an issue for the northeastern Caribbean, perhaps the Bahamas, but probably will recurve before Florida, and may get close to North Carolina. But right odds slightly favor that it won't make landfall along the US.

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k___g
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Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92192 - Tue Sep 06 2011 10:30 PM

I think you are correct Mike...looking at the long range seems to follow the recent storms as far as recurve goes.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 07 2011 01:00 AM)


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weathernet
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Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: k___g]
      #92197 - Wed Sep 07 2011 09:42 AM

Hard to believe this is not "Maria" already. Sure has "that look" to it. "If" and "when" we do see an upgrade is not known yet, however as I examine this mornings satellite, I cannot help but think that the system is gaining a little latitude. This could be also indicative of the lower and mid levels getting a bit more aligned and thus might be pulling up and out of the overall ITCZ monsoon trough out there. Would not surprise me to see a little faster motion than we've seen during the past day or two. I have to concur with those thoughts of others here, in that the overall pattern has thus far been quite indicative of recurvature as systems approach the Lesser Antilles. I would anticipate that this one will do the same, however models seems to bring it as a potential threat to the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Latest run of the Euro however, is actually more "westward", and brings this surprisingly close to Florida. Longer range GFS does seem to indicate some type of shift to the steering flow perhaps, but appears to be too "downrange" to impact this system.

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Joeyfl
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92199 - Wed Sep 07 2011 10:56 AM

Got to agree with the above posters. I would bet on 70% recurve possibility on TD 14, soon to be Maria. Generally pattern does favor storms recurving right now with all the troughs moving into the west Atlantic, however things change so you have to keep an eye on it. As weathernet posted above things maybe trending towards a bit of pattern change down road which may open the possibility up some threats from Atlanitc/Caribbean.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 08 2011 12:11 AM)


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weathernet
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92212 - Thu Sep 08 2011 01:53 PM

Well, after taking a look at the latest GFS maps, the over-all condition of Maria ( as a low level swirl ), present low level steering ( E. of the Islands ), I would say that the period from 60 - 96 hours, are going to prove VERY interesting for a lot of people. The "range of events" could be as wide as: blustery rain for the Windward & Leeward Islands from a dying tropical wave to the opposite extreme of Hurricane conditions over Puerto Rico, Hispanola, the Bahamas, and possibly Florida to the Carolina's.

Am eagerly awaiting the 12Z Euro update, less so as a direct answer as to "where" Maria might go, but moreso to see if continuity of forecasted downstream synoptics would indicate a true indication of increased ridging over the W. Atlantic and shift in the long wave pattern. At this point in time, I am going to "guess" how events might play out:

I believe Maria will weaken further to an open wave continue to move westward in the near term, but in fact move South of Puerto Rico as a regenerated Tropical Depression/Storm Then, as approaching 55W-60W, will begin a WNW motion that will carry a strengthening system over S. Hispanola as a Cat. 1 hurricane. From here, Maria might become a Cat.3 hurricane that will come close to the South Florida coast as begins a more NNW motion into the prevailing steering caused by the next short wave over the Ohio Valley. Finally, due to a shift in the long wave pattern, this shortwave will quickly pull "up" & Eastward, and Maria will make landfall as a strong Cat. 2 in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border.

(Off-topic material removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 08 2011 03:43 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92217 - Thu Sep 08 2011 04:22 PM

(Recovered post by weathernet - moved to Forecast Lounge.)

Latest EURO 12Z model output from today showing building heights to the north of Maria and over the W. Atlantic. Appears to show Maria making landfall on Puerto Rico, and just north of the island of Hispanola. The last frame that has updated thus far, has Maria intensifying just N. of Cuba and over or south of the Central Bahamas ( will attempt to attach a link )

The UK Model has just come out as well, and shows "rapid intensification" off of Abaco in the Bahamas ( at 6 days ). Most concerning is the latest GFDL takes a much more WNW "smoothed" path right to South Florida and showing 108 knots at the end of the cycle. ( see link -http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/maria14l.2011090812_nest3.png )

None of this indicates any "absolute", other than there have been some change to the synoptic variables.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92218 - Thu Sep 08 2011 04:36 PM

Last night at 11PM the NHC 120-hour point was at 25.5N 70W. This morning at 11AM it was at 25N 75W - thats a little over 300 miles of westward adjustment in 12 hours. Maria is still a weak swirl moving rapidly westward along 13.2N. It is possible that Maria will become an open wave that could redevelop in the north central Caribbean Sea - which would indicate an additional westward adjustment in a day or two.
ED


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delia6667
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92223 - Fri Sep 09 2011 11:48 AM

The latest advisories I read shows Maria on 09-11 at 17.9 N 64.5 W. Although I live in St Thomas, St. John, is 17.8N 64.7W. St. John is so close to St. Thomas as I see it we here might as well have the center pass over us. It should be interesting from around 2:00 pm Sat through Noon on Sunday, as to what Maria does to an already soaked Virgin Islands from Irene. I am thinking we will more than likely get 55 kts sustained with higher gusts. Cordelia

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delia6667
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: delia6667]
      #92224 - Fri Sep 09 2011 11:52 AM

Correction: So sorry, meant to say that was more or less St. Croix' Lat and Long, not St. John's. That will put us on the NE Quadrant, which will give us stronger winds. Cordelia

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 09 2011 11:58 AM)


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doug
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: delia6667]
      #92230 - Sat Sep 10 2011 10:41 AM

"Maria" looks to be torn in half, a northern portion and southern portion which seems to be separating from the upper portion. The TUTT NW of the CoC is going to draw off the moisture energy from the northern half, while that area of convection in the southern portion slides westward away from the pull if that low. The future of"Maria" as a system will be bleak unless a secondary circulation can get going in that southern pool of convection, IMO.
Nate formed out of such a separating situation near the Yucatan, where the NE portion of the decaying frontal trough shifted convection ne'ward and the sw portion spun up the low in the BOC.

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doug


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92233 - Sun Sep 11 2011 12:01 PM

I have noticed that the 11:00am direction of Maria has turned Wnw How long will this direction have to be held before the models pick up on the change. Also how will this change the overall destination of Maria?

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Ed in Va
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Re: Maria Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #92235 - Mon Sep 12 2011 10:54 AM

Per the 11 discussion, looks like the NHC is hedging its bets on the future track/intensity/possible disintegration of Maria...seeems like there is a lot more uncertainty than we've seen in the last couple of days
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/121441.shtml?

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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