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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 48 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
      #92269 - Tue Oct 04 2011 04:52 PM

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
214 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2011

DAILY COORDINATION WITH THE NHC RESULTED IN AGREEMENT TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORIGIN IN VICINITY OF (NW) CUBA and (WEST) OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR DAYS 6/7. ALTHOUGH SOLUTION SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM...CONTINUITY FOR ITS FORMATION FROM YESTERDAY'S MODELS IS GOOD WITH EVEN MORE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS NOW ON-BOARD. THE BROAD NATURE OF ITS DEPICTION IS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH SPREAD WITH WHERE TO POSITION THE LOW WITH THE FINAL PROGS REPRESENTATIVE OF A GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 09 2011 04:31 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #92270 - Wed Oct 05 2011 12:28 PM

A consensus is building (see GFS, ECMWF and CMC) on the development of troubling low pressure in the Carribean-SWATL in the next 5-6 days. MJO is waxing to favorable in the Carribean later in the period too. Location of the system and intensity are in play, but I personally am becoming more confident of some quality of storm in the above referenced region, Sunday-Wednesday time period next week.

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #92271 - Wed Oct 05 2011 04:01 PM

Yep, is looking like models are better coming together in the eventual development of an eventual tropical system. The 12Z GFS seems to bring itself more in-line with the EURO and thus my best guess is that most likely location to potentially get tagged by "Tropical Storm Ho-Hum" might be between Tallahassee and Ceder Key. Am certainly not downplaying the real risks that shallow Gulf waters can create in terms of flooding, nor the significant rains that may impact a broad swath of area. Thus far however, we have been quite lucky to avert the anticipated risk that this active season was bringing with it. Given that we will likely be initially dealing with a baroclinic system, and the fact that most models don't have this system "stewing" for any long period of time, once again we might prove fortunate and only have a moderate to strong Tropical Storm for the N. Gulf Coast to contend with. Certainly not anticipating the risk of a major hurricane out of this ( though I could see a blocking pattern delaying and slowing landfall towards the end of its cycle ). Unless all reliable models are wrong, I cannot see how South Florida is impacted any worse than gusty winds and perhaps 2"-4" of rain.

Perhaps of greater risk ( and possible concern ) might be what large, slow moving, & deepening system might follow 1-2 weeks later. Models continue to indicate more potential for development throughout the W. Caribbean. Latest MJO phase would seem to be in tandem with what would normally be a climatologically active area.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #92272 - Thu Oct 06 2011 09:32 AM

Interesting Discussion from MLB NWS this morning:

"SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO HYBRID (SUBTROPICAL) LOW LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE 00Z RUN SHOWED MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE ECMWF HAS HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY AND HPC
PROGS HAVE FAVORED ITS SOLUTION WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD IN THE EASTERN GULF. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS WIND GRIDS WHICH WERE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

BOTH TRACKS WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN...GALE FORCE WINDS AND BEACH
EROSION. THE GULF TRACK WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

THE EXACT TIMING FOR THIS EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT THE INITIAL LOW
FORMATION...ABOUT SUNDAY...WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCES ONGOING FROM SAT. AS THE LOW LIFTS CLOSER TO FLORIDA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD INCREASE AND BRING THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES."

ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92275 - Fri Oct 07 2011 09:58 AM

For whatever it is worth, in my opinion, the satellite data this morning is showing the beginnings of the development of this system. The WV is showing an increasing cyclonic flow from the coast of SE Georgia down to Cuba. No low level vortex is noted although something is in the GOM at about 29N and 85W that is dropping southward. The base of the trough lies just north of Cuba at about 24N 85W and there is a build up of percipitation east and northeast of that point. It appears this whole thing may come together as predicted. If it does it could usher in a pattern change over Florida that would end the summertime like pattern.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: doug]
      #92277 - Fri Oct 07 2011 06:27 PM

It's a 50/50 proposition for now. If something does develop, I doubt that it would strengthen very much considering the amount of vertical shear that is present over the region. Of course, as it has been stated, this is the time of year to keep an eye on the Gulf and Western Caribbean and old frontal troughs for potential development.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: MichaelA]
      #92279 - Sat Oct 08 2011 09:27 AM

Since this is a forum I will speculate a bit: based on current sat. data and surface observations: Key West has 29.95 and Marathon 29.87, the lowest recorded pressure in the state, it seems that a circulation center at some level is consolidating just south of the keys. I see no sign of any circulation in the Bahamas.

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: MichaelA]
      #92283 - Sat Oct 08 2011 12:47 PM

Given the unlikely consolodation of our current "blob", pressures are forecast to remain low throughout the E. Gulf southward and into the W. Caribbean. Now the 12GFS is showing a 1004 low down in the Gulf of Honduras. At 180 hr., doesnt change much however is looking like it may becoming more consolodated and intense. At 192 hours, no change but now much larger and dragging moisture back over all of the W. Antilles and Florida, then eventually migrating westward over the S. Central Gulf as a large stationary 1003 low and giving Texas some desperately needed rain..

Will have to wait to see if further runs remain consistant but the GFS has been hinting on additional areas of low pressure of varying degrees to follow.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: weathernet]
      #92284 - Sat Oct 08 2011 01:13 PM

and upon further review....., looks like some broad "east / west oriented" low may be beginning to form from the base of the upper trough in the E. Gulf, perhaps around 25N , from 85W eastward.to about approx. 80W. Looks like whatever consolodation ( and I use that term extremely loosely ) might occur closer to 85W & 25N, and begin late Sun. to start lifting NNW. Would appear to me that the upper air conditions are less hostile the farther south you go into the N. Caribbean, but lowest pressures seemingly around the Florida Straights

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Long Range Outlook [Re: weathernet]
      #92287 - Sat Oct 08 2011 04:23 PM

Continue to see signs of a low developing near Key West...see Key West discussion of about an hour or so ago...The trough axis has shifted west of Key West with a broad cyclonic area about 25 miles west of there. The radar images over the peninsula south of about a Vero-Bradenton line suggests that the rain area is more westerly and individual showers are moving quickly sw south of that line while the movement is more wnw to the north. Conditions here in Parrish have now become overcast and the wind has been steadily increasing from the NE. Rain is about an hour out.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #92301 - Sun Oct 09 2011 04:34 PM

System was upgraded to an Invest area at 09/18Z - see the Storm Forum for details. Looks like a track along the Florida east coast or perhaps just inland from the coast - with yet another round of showers and gusty winds tonight.

Best Track at 18Z:
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, 34,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 09 2011 06:36 PM)


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