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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Invest 95L
      #92331 - Sun Oct 16 2011 02:44 PM

Invest 95L is an active convective area with an elongated (NE-SW) center located just east southeast of Cozumel at 16/18Z and moving slowly to the northwest. The system is in an area of light windshear and SSTs close to 29C. Stronger shear over the Florida peninsula should slowly lift to the north on Monday. Land interaction will limit any additional development today and tonight, however as the system moves into the Gulf, conditions would favor some additional slow development on Monday into Tuesday with eventual movement toward the Florida peninsula.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 95L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92342 - Mon Oct 17 2011 02:10 PM

With convection removed to the northeast, the low-level swirl currently (17/18Z) located just north of Merida, Mexico, probably had tropical origins, but what remains in the southeast Gulf of Mexico is looking like an extratropical system at the tail end of an old front that extends east and northeast into the Atlantic. The system should move northeast across the Florida peninsula late Tuesday and then rapidly up the east coast on Wednesday. Heavy rain showers in south Florida and moderate to heavy showers in central Florida with the strongest activity from late Tuesday afternoon through very early Wednesday morning. Cooler temperatures likely across Florida on Thursday and Friday.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 95L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92345 - Tue Oct 18 2011 10:44 AM

A secondary low pressure center has formed near 26N 88W at 18/12Z - currently stationary with a cold front rapidly approaching from the northwest. The strong MCC that formed last night is currently approaching the Ft Myers - Naples area. The primary swirl is still evident about 60 miles to the north of the Yucatan peninsula with movement to the east northeast. The front should soon capture the northernmost low and drag the entire complex across the Florida peninsula. There is a chance for isolated tornadoes Tuesday evening over the peninsula.
ED


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