Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2011 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Sean Will Pass NW of Bermuda - Then Get Absorbed by Front
      #92413 - Sun Oct 30 2011 07:25 PM

Update, Thursday - November 10, 11:15PM EST
Tropical Storm Sean is beginning to suffer structural decay with winds likely down to about 55mph as windshear has separated the low level center from the mid level center. The weakening trend should continue on Friday as Sean passes northwest of Bermuda and gets absorbed by a cold front approaching from the west later on Friday. Tropical Storm force winds are still likely over Bermuda Friday morning along with one or two inches of rain. At 11/04Z, winds at Hamilton were gusting to 43mph.
ED

Update, Wednesday - November 9, 6PM EST
Sean is a strong Tropical Storm with sustained winds of 65mph and some additional intensification is possible but the window of time for that intensification is shrinking. Sean started a northward movement today and a more northeasterly motion is likely later on Thursday. Strong southwesterly windshear ahead of a cold front moving off the Atlantic coast along with SSTs of 24C will begin to weaken Sean later Thursday afternoon. There is a chance that Sean will reach hurricane strength before the weakening process begins and in fact NHC now indicates that, but the models are not as aggressive with intensification. There is a likely probability of tropical storm force winds in Bermuda late Thursday evening as Sean passes west of the island and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda.
ED

Bermuda Weather Reports

Bermuda Weather Radar

Update, Tuesday - November 8, 1:30PM EST
This is an update to note that as Sean has continued to acquire more tropical characteristics, NHC has elected to classify him now as Tropical Storm Sean.

With this transition into a more completely tropical than non-tropical cyclone, winds and convection associated with the cyclone are pulling in towards its center of circulation, and the window for Sean to become a strong TS or minimal hurricane is now open this week. Still, for now, the official forecast calls for a low-mid range storm, only.

Ciel

Update, Tuesday - November 8, 5:00AM EST
Invest 98L is now Subtropical Storm Sean, with maximum sustained winds of 45MPH.

Sean continues to hold up about stationary over waters that are plenty warm for further development, and Sean may very well transition into a Tropical Cyclone this week before being overtaken by or pushed out to cool waters by an approaching front. Given the warm waters and improving structure, it is possible that Sean becomes a Tropical Storm within twenty-four hours, and already Sean has at the very least a shallow warm core.

Sean is expected to gradually turn to the northwest, and then accelerate to the north-northeast, and is not expected to pose a direct threat to the east coast, although Bermuda may end up in its path. As for intensity, the official forecast basically keeps Sean steady-state, even as a Tropical Storm, but with time there is a chance that Sean intensifies a good bit more - possibly even becoming a shallow hurricane.

Ciel

Update, Tuesday - November 8, 12:15AM EST
Invest 98L continues to churn about 650 miles east of east central Florida. At 08/05Z the center was located at 27.0N 69.7W moving to the south southwest at 4 knots. There has been slowly developing convection closer to the center earlier on Monday however the structure hasn't changed much in the past few hours. NHC has assigned a high probability (currently 70%) that Invest 98L could become a subtropical cyclone in the next couple of days.

Also worth noting is Invest 99L which is a subtropical cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea (being tracked by SSD as M01) located near 41N 6E at 08/04Z.
ED

Update, Sunday - November 6, 9:20AM EST
Invest 98L is a stationary gale center located about 700 miles east of Melbourne, Florida, with considerable dry air to the south of the large system. Sustained winds are at 45 knots and the central pressure is 1005MB. Rough seas, rip currents and brisk northeasterly winds will exist along the Florida east coast and the northern Bahamas this week. Convection is displaced to the northeast of the center and there is only a small chance for the gale to acquire subtropical characteristics as the center drifts to the southeast.
ED

Sean Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Sean


stormplotthumb_19.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Sean (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Sean (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Sean

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Sean
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Sean -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Original Post, Sunday - October 30, 7:25AM EDST
Rina decoupled and fell apart but the convection soaked the southern half of the Florida peninsula. The basin is currently quiet and it probably will stay that way. It was certainly a busy season with one name - Irene - likely to be retired. With consideration for the un-named (Subtropical) Storm of October 8th along the coast of east central Florida - and with the possibility that this storm will be added during seasonal post analysis - the totals for the year currently stand at 18/6/3. If the un-named storm is not added, it will be the first year that has ever recorded 17 named storms. 2011 is also the first recorded season that started with 8 straight Tropical Storms or had 8 straight Tropical Storms at any time during the season.

Right now, strong westerly windshear dominates the tropical Atlantic and the hostile environment for development suggests that November will not see any additional tropical activity, but we'll check from time to time - just in case.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob Moser
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
Re: Whew!!! [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92414 - Sun Oct 30 2011 09:13 PM

Thank you !

Wonderful job of handling this year's season. SPOT ON!

Now we can go back HOME!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Sean Nearly a Hurricane [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92425 - Wed Nov 09 2011 04:07 PM

Sean is nearly a hurricane as of Tuesday afternoon, with an eye feature, which has been seen on microwave images all day, now becoming clear in conventional satellite images as well.



The official forecast now has Sean a hurricane tomorrow afternoon, although the upgrade could happen much sooner.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Sean Moving Closer to Bermuda [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92427 - Thu Nov 10 2011 03:53 PM

Tropical Storm Sean has taken more of a turn to the east northeast under increasing westerly shear - evident on satellite imagery Thursday afternoon - which could put the storm just northwest of Bermuda, if that trend continues, around sunrise Friday morning. This motion would also delay the onset of passage over rapidly cooler SSTs. Some additional intensification is still possible prior to Friday afternoon, and strong tropical storm force winds are likely on Bermuda later tonight and Friday morning.

There is also a chance that the strong upper level westerly shear could decouple the system and expose the low level center - which would weaken the system somewhat before it gets close to Bermuda, but tropical storm force winds would still be expected on the island.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 5069

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center