Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


#Hanna Attempting to Reorganzie Along the coast of Honduras. Watching Invest 95L East of the Northern Antilles. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 118 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3293 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2012 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2012
      #92437 - Sun Jan 01 2012 12:46 AM

CSU decided not to issue a quantitative (numerical) forecast in December because they felt that ENSO forecasts do not show any skill at the 6 to 9 month forecast period (probably true) but I think that a forecast is still feasible - if nothing more than an initial starting point which can be based on long range SST projections that are still being issued by NOAA. TSR did issue an initial outlook for 2012 on 12/7/11 with a forecast of 14/7/3.

NOAA expects the current La Nina to continue through the Summer of the 2012 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. They also expect that the SST anomaly over just about the entire Atlantic basin will remain neutral for the full tropical season. With that expectation, the best analog years for 2012 would seem to be 1956 (8/4/2), 1975 (9/6/3), 1971 (13/6/2) and 1932 (11/6/4). 1932 is more for likely track pattern rather than numbers. 2000 (15/8/3) was also considered, but rejected as a good analog because during 2000 a warm anomaly (rather than a neutral condition) existed in the central Atlantic along 30N.

My initial outlook for the 2012 season is for 11 or 12 named storms (I'll firm up the number in the Spring) with 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - pretty much a normal season of activity. Primary U.S. landfall threat zone looks like the Florida panhandle westward to the Texas coast (all of it). In other words, the initial pattern suggests more of a northern Gulf Coast season for 2012, but that could certainly change in the next six months.

If you feel the urge, you can add your own initial thoughts for the upcoming season - and your numbers can be revised as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. You don't need to provide any rationale for your numbers - unless you wish to.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92456 - Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM

The latest NCEP forecast issued on February 27th suggests that ENSO Neutral conditions in the Spring will evolve to a weak El Nino during the Summer that will become a weak to moderate El Nino in the Fall/Winter. Neutral SST anomalies in the tropical north Atlantic are expected to shift to a warmer than normal basin for the September through November timeframe. With the basin anomaly now expected to be turning warmer during the peak and the latter portion of the hurricane season, the 2012 seasonal outlook for Atlantic tropical cyclones now indicates a slightly above normal level of activity.

The expectation is for 13 named storms with 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. The best analog years are now: 1996: 13/9/4 2001: 15/9/4 1951: 10/8/5

Although no particular target area is indicated by the analog years, the entire East coast seems likely to remain as the primary threat zone for 2012 activity.

For those that wish to post their expectations for the season, this thread will remain open until the season gets underway on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 280
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92458 - Sun Mar 11 2012 03:20 PM

I'm going with 16/7/3 this season. Also, I'm going all in with an early season named system landfall in the Gulf Big Bend area and a late season system making landfall in the North East anywhere north of Maryland all the way to Canada...I think Gaia is ready to give us a spanking...Where? It's all up to her.....Be Happy and Keep Smiling.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92462 - Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM

Latest expectation still suggest ENSO neutral conditions this Spring will warm to a modest El Nino event by late Summer and Fall in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The tropical Atlantic SSTs are now expected to remain neutral throughout the hurricane season - and slightly cooler than previously forecast.

On April 4th, CSU will issue its tropical cyclone forecast for the 2012 season, and an earlier discussion issued by CSU on March 21st suggested that the upcoming season is expected to be less active than normal.

With the likelihood that the tropical Atlantic will be a little cooler than previously expected and considerably cooler than last season, a downward adjustment in the 2012 Outlook seems realistic. I've lowered by expectations to a more normal to slightly less than normal level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The new best-fit analog years are 2009, 2006 and 1968.
ADDED: 1951 is also a reasonably good analog year.
There is a good chance for an early season storm (June or earlier) this year.

Now its your turn to post your own forecast for the season - rationale is welcomed, but not required. Please post specific numbers for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes rather than a range of numbers, i.e., 10/5/2 rather than 9-11, 4-6, and 1-3. At the end of the season we'll take a look back and see how well we did. This thread will remain open until the start of the hurricane season on June 1st - up until then you can adjust your forecast as many times as you wish.

Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Apr 04 2012 09:25 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92465 - Wed Apr 04 2012 05:49 PM

CSU has posted its initial forecast for 2012 at 10/4/2.
TSR has posted its updated forecast for 2012 at 13/6/3.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Apr 12 2012 04:16 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92469 - Tue Apr 10 2012 08:45 AM

10/6/3: cooler SST's and the now "moderate" El Nino which will hamper late season development. I will rethink after the 12th when TSR updates.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: doug]
      #92471 - Tue Apr 17 2012 12:52 PM

TSR on 4/12 (rounded) 12/6/3. I'll check.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: doug]
      #92472 - Tue Apr 17 2012 02:57 PM

I'll go with 11/6/3

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 52
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #92478 - Fri Apr 27 2012 10:14 PM

12/6/4, we never really saw winter, so things stayed warm. Probably go higher, we're way past due. In the immortal words from Jurrasic Park, " Everybody hang on to your butts."

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #92480 - Sun Apr 29 2012 12:49 PM

I'm going to go with 14/7/4.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: MichaelA]
      #92483 - Mon Apr 30 2012 12:58 AM

New Season, already?? whew....., the older I get the faster time seems to move

Well, will take my stab at the 2012 Season numbers. Am guessing 13/6/2. Given the cooler SST's out there, am thinking they'll be less long tracking CV systems. Also think there may be a good deal more activity overall forming/moving close to the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, & E. Gulf.

Though still about a month out, Happy & Safe season everyone!

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Apr 30 2012 06:53 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92484 - Mon Apr 30 2012 02:53 PM

I am going with 13/7/4

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #92489 - Wed May 09 2012 09:58 AM

Im going with 14/8/3

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #92490 - Thu May 10 2012 08:16 AM

Im going with 15/7/3.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jessiej
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl 26.02N 80.33W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92506 - Wed May 16 2012 09:01 PM

11/4/2

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92509 - Sat May 19 2012 12:10 AM

In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs. In the Pacific, the earlier forecast for moderate El Nino conditions during the upcoming hurricane season has been revised to ENSO neutral to a weak El Nino. These trends indicate slightly more favorable conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone formation, but upper air conditions are still expected to be less than ideal for tropical cyclone formation this year. 2006, 1976, 1951 and 1968 remain as the best analog years for the 2012 season.

In less than two weeks this thread will close when the season starts. You still have time to throw your hat and your forecast for the total number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes into the thread before June 1st. We'll summarize the forecasts at the end of the season and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 52
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92511 - Sat May 19 2012 07:38 AM

Quote:

In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs


Quote:

12/6/4, we never really saw winter, so things stayed warm.


What did I tell ya? Still think it will go higher, so I'm going 14/8/5.

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92549 - Tue May 22 2012 09:02 PM

I'm probably going to regret this, but with the Atlantic now expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and since your first forecast is often your best forecast, I'm going to revert to my original forecast of 11/6/3.

This is the lowest input that we have ever had on our early season guesstimates. You still have until June 1st to add your outlook for the season before this thread is closed.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
riche
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92554 - Thu May 24 2012 07:38 AM

Hope you guys dont mind a complete Rookie from across the pond joining in here!

I love coming to the States and the Carribean - always coimg over between June and September when the weather seems to get a little interesting so I always keep an eye on the depressions.

I am going for 16/5/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92555 - Thu May 24 2012 08:15 AM

Okay, I'll go with 14/8/4. Note I rarely ever do this guesstimate, however today I will. The four might be high if we weaker storms forming close in or long trackers that have problems stacking themselves probably but I think we could get there.

When in a "neutral" phase it's hard to tell if this is where we are staying or if we are going into El Nino. It's a phase.

Water is warm, the season has started early and for numerous reasons I'll say we will have at least 14 named systems.. as always time will tell.

Like to hear some rationalization for the numbers by people posting.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 19281

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center