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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Pre-Season Invest 93L Becomes Tropical Storm Alberto
      #92520 - Sat May 19 2012 04:35 PM

A formerly non-tropical, but virgorous surface low pressure center embedded within a larger upper level low pressure system, has been acquiring significantly more subtropical to tropical characteristics this afternoon and it looks probable that NHC will pull the trigger on Alberto (marginally tropical), by this evening.

Below: 93L "Alberto" on 5/19/12


Estimates suggest 93L may already have sustained winds of roughly 40-50MPH. 93L is enjoying the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and is expected to slide further southwest along the stream before getting ejected off and out into much colder waters to its northeast within the next few days.

More details will follow. Please keep your comments in this forum to the topic at hand (Invest 93L/"Alberto")

05/19/12 7PM EDT Edit
Within the past few hours a ship located near 32.20N 78.00W and very close to Alberto's estimated center (which is roughly 32N 78W) reported winds - at least in gusts - of 65 knots. Based on this NHC has increased Alberto's estimated maximum sustained winds to 60MPH.

Tropical Storm Alberto is a relatively small tropical cyclone, and it is likely that sustained winds above 50MPH remain confined to the very center of the storm and/or within just a few of its most intense thunderstorms, thus in the near to medium term Alberto remains of some concern just for those right along the South Carolina coast and of boating interests up to 120 miles or so offshore.
Ciel

05/21/12 9PM EDT Edit
Tropical Storm Alberto continues hanging on as a barely tropical storm, but this may not last for very much longer as shear is on the rise and water temps are on the decline. Alberto has never really seen a favorable environment to strengthen in, as it was, which is as would be expected for the month of May, long before the statistical peak months for tropical cyclones to flourish (August, September & October).

No surprise, Alberto is currently forecast to fall apart within 72 hours, and from the looks of things it could be sooner. As of 9PM EDT on the 21st of May, Alberto still boasts an impressive low level circulation for the time of year, but a LLC which is all but exposed. A few thunderstorms in its northeastern quadrant are hanging on, but just barely, having been blown farther and farther away from the center of circulation.
Ciel

Alberto Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Alberto


stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alberto (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alberto (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Alberto

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alberto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alberto -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




Edited by MikeC (Mon May 21 2012 09:42 PM)


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Firebug814
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Re: Pre-Season Invest 93L Becomes Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: cieldumort]
      #92546 - Mon May 21 2012 08:20 AM

Interesting that not one person posted anything about how early this storm was. Earliest storm since 2003 from what the weather channel said. The news in Jacksonville said two days ago that it wouldnt get within 200 miles of us and yet it was only about 100 off of our coast. I guess it is time to look at what I need in my hurricane kit already. Be prepared for the worst and pray for the best.

Gary


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: Firebug814]
      #92547 - Mon May 21 2012 06:07 PM

NHC Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1 contained the following:

"ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al01/al012012.discus.001.shtml?

Also of note. This storm constantly has gone against the Cone of Certainty.
While it is now somewhat following the forecast track it hasn't for the last 48 hours. Interesting.~danielw


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