A formerly non-tropical, but virgorous surface low pressure center embedded within a larger upper level low pressure system, has been acquiring significantly more subtropical to tropical characteristics this afternoon and it looks probable that will pull the trigger on Alberto (marginally tropical), by this evening.
Below: 93L "Alberto" on 5/19/12
Estimates suggest 93L may already have sustained winds of roughly 40-50MPH. 93L is enjoying the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and is expected to slide further southwest along the stream before getting ejected off and out into much colder waters to its northeast within the next few days.
More details will follow. Please keep your comments in this forum to the topic at hand (Invest 93L/"Alberto")
05/19/12 7PM EDT Edit
Within the past few hours a ship located near 32.20N 78.00W and very close to Alberto's estimated center (which is roughly 32N 78W) reported winds - at least in gusts - of 65 knots. Based on this has increased Alberto's estimated maximum sustained winds to 60MPH.
Tropical Storm Alberto is a relatively small tropical cyclone, and it is likely that sustained winds above 50MPH remain confined to the very center of the storm and/or within just a few of its most intense thunderstorms, thus in the near to medium term Alberto remains of some concern just for those right along the South Carolina coast and of boating interests up to 120 miles or so offshore.
05/21/12 9PM EDT Edit
Tropical Storm Alberto continues hanging on as a barely tropical storm, but this may not last for very much longer as shear is on the rise and water temps are on the decline. Alberto has never really seen a favorable environment to strengthen in, as it was, which is as would be expected for the month of May, long before the statistical peak months for tropical cyclones to flourish (August, September & October).
No surprise, Alberto is currently forecast to fall apart within 72 hours, and from the looks of things it could be sooner. As of 9PM EDT on the 21st of May, Alberto still boasts an impressive low level circulation for the time of year, but a LLC which is all but exposed. A few thunderstorms in its northeastern quadrant are hanging on, but just barely, having been blown farther and farther away from the center of circulation.
Alberto Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Alberto
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alberto
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alberto Clark Evans Track Plot of Alberto
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alberto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alberto -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Edited by MikeC (Mon May 21 2012 09:42 PM)