Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
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With an Invest finally declared, it seems appropriate to start a Lounge on this system. Here is the place for your long range guesstimates on what this system will become (if anything) and where it might eventually go. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
ED
ADDED: Upgraded to TS Debby.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 23 2012 05:47 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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As stated in the other forum...I am leaning toward a solution and think the way ot is to the NE. However, the ULL over N. Mexico is now in So. Texas; but, the short wave is still progressing SE'ly through the lower mid west. The surface feature is not moving much at this time, and how far north it drifts in the next 24-36 hours will determine if it stalls or catches the ride to the NE. Intensity: If westerly shear relaxes and it lingers over warm GOM waters it could get frisky, but to early to tell.
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doug
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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I find it interesting that all of the talk has been leaning towards an Easterly solution...or NE across Florida but when the models come out in Invest manner...they are mostly going West.
Thinking this might change once we get better data from recon and a verifiable center.
Easily 50/50 odds on either track, so many factors that are so intangible right now.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Remember that the initial model runs are based on a weak system that would tend to be influenced by the low-level flow, i.e., easterlies shoving the weak system toward the west. If the system does intensify, the mid to upper level flow would have more of an influence on the eventual movement and the models would adjust to reflect that influence.
ED
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It could also reflect an Low Level and Upper level split.
Low level moves one way and upper level moves in another direction. My penny.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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I hear that about stronger and weaker systems. It's a reason I have a problem with the model that shows it as a strong system moving west slowly.
Timing is everything.
Also, beginning to wonder how much of an effect the stronger ULL off the East Coast of Florida will have to do with the steering currents as that ULL seems stronger now than it has been...though I could be wrong.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
Sort of pops out today with a major spin.
Also, the dry air to the north of the storm seems to be filing in ... also a possible factor.
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
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I currently still like the west motion toward the texas coast at this time.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Such a fluid set up.
The funny part is I can see the reasoning for Texas but as it all begins to play out I see it moving more North indecisively. This is forecasted currently to be a slow storm ...that also is questionable as everything else.
12 hours ago the WV looked very different from it's current image.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=-12®ion=ea
Current Image... much stronger...
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ea
That front looks very strong right now, but am having problems believing it will stay strong the further south it gets.
It's all a differential question... when the temps are 100 a "cold front" looks cold, but the temps are not forecast to drop down back to where they were a week ago.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Its looking like a MLC is forming off the NE tip of the YP. Its also showing cirrus outflow setting up. If the low pressure center tucks itself under that this could ramp up a little more quickly. It also looks like an Anticyclone is setting up right over it
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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trofs this year have been digging south so it's possible Florida will be Game on.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Quote:
Its looking like a MLC is forming off the NE tip of the YP. Its also showing cirrus outflow setting up. If the low pressure center tucks itself under that this could ramp up a little more quickly. It also looks like an Anticyclone is setting up right over it
WeatherNut, I think that mild, ghosting circulation may just be a weak MCV from the ongoing convective blowup over there. Best I can tell (and I can't tell much, because this is not a very well defined Invest, at all) it seems that the weak surface low is indeed now already in the process of tucking itself under a different MLC (which was actually a mid-level remnant of Hurricane Carlotta, first, before getting caught up in the broad trough), and the two look to have moved onshore in tandem.
Now seemingly onshore, in the short term, this synergism looks to be getting further aided and abetted by some more traditional diurnal thunderstorm development over land; however, if this process of combing the incipient LLC with that MLC coupled with deep convection continues, we could very well see #4 develop while just inland, assuming it doesn't drift back offshore any time soon, and develop just offshore.
If this region does not take within 24-48 hours, then I might start looking farther north for a new LLC to become dominant, perhaps an incarnation of the surface eddy currently around 24.5N 89N.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
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Where`s thing going? Everybody knows this system is going to light up. Hurricane chance? I would venture to say yes. I hope I`m wrong,
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 21 2012 07:31 PM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Thanks. Incredible discussion here.
The whole system is leaning towards the NE, if this was a developed hurricane I'd take that as a sign of things to come.
Early look of banding and blooming.
My question on the logic of the front fizzling and high pressure filling in to the north vs the front going more stationary and how would high pressure build in? Yes, from the East but I don't see that happening as fast.
The front is strong, not saying the front will fizzle but the front may get further south and pull it further north so that a sharp turn to the West seems not within parameters of what we would expect.
Also worth noting, most NWS discussion shows it going NE over Florida, even a few in Texas but imagine that could change ... I just find that sort of telling in ways.
Great discussion Ciel, have to read it over and over... that's one of the reasons I am here and love it.
Discussion based on hard facts not wishcasting.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: West Coast Florida
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20-85 def swirl. Low levels?? time will tell
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 21 2012 10:26 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Yes this is several hours old. But the entire model suite is discussed. Very good Discussion!
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES WITH THE
FORECAST: IS THE PIECEMEAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM SEEN
IN MANY OF THE FORECAST RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS A
FUNCTION OF THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM OR OF
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN THE MODEL?
LOOKING BACK AT THE
LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE AND
BEGINNING AT 00Z/21...THE IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN THE . FOR THE VALID TIME
25/12Z...
THESE RUNS VARY AS WIDELY AS A CONSOLIDATED 998 MB
LOW NEAR 27N85W TO A MORE STRUNG OUT TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A
1001 MB ATLC LOW NEAR 29N79W THROUGH FL TO 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR
25N85W AND INTO THE SW GULF.
THE NEW 12Z CARRIES THE LOW
ACROSS FL BY THIS TIME...WITH A 1003 MB LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
THE RUNS VALID AT THE SAME TIME...25/12Z...AGREE ON A LOW
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL GULF SOMEWHERE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W
AND 91W. THE 21/00Z HAS STRAYED FROM THE EARLIER RUNS BY
DEEPENING THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY BY THIS TIME. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEW 12Z SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND THROUGH SUN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW 12Z ...CMC...GFS...AND UKMET ARE
SHOWING MORE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THAN THE RUNS AVAILABLE
THIS MORNING. BY 25/12Z THE AND UKMET ARE IN THE W GULF
AND THE IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH ONLY THE STRUNG
OUT ACROSS FL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FLIP-FLOPPING
GFS...ITS TOUGH TO COUNT OUT THE IDEA OF ENERGY SHEARING NE
ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE LOW. THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO WAS AGREED UPON BY AND HPC DURING THE MEDium Range CONference CALL.
THE 06Z GEFS MEAN HOLDS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF...BUT ALLOWS ENERGY TO PASS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING THERE BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. THIS WAS
THE PREFERRED SOLutioN FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
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danielw
Moderator
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
VALID JUN 21/1200 UTC THRU JUN 25/0000 UTC
MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING
THE 12Z IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS
FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK
TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE
HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO
MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z /12Z
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST
STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK
SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE
TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Looks like we may have a LLC at this hour.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Where? Not a rhetorical question. The circulation migrated SE overnight and now may be under convection east of the YP. All the model runs will have to re-initialize after the system stablilzes. Also not much northerly drift presently for the main area of convection which has been parked in the channel for a couple of days. Waiting and watching.
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doug
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Quote:
Where? Not a rhetorical question. The circulation migrated SE overnight and now may be under convection east of the YP. All the model runs will have to re-initialize after the system stablilzes. Also not much northerly drift presently for the main area of convection which has been parked in the channel for a couple of days. Waiting and watching.
Based on satellite, I have to concur that there would seem to be evidence of new LLC developing under the western edge of the convection just east (?) of the Northern tip of Yucatan. Don't think this changes present overall model spread for eventual motion, even though "that" still remains a questionmark. What might change however, is that this possible center being a bit farther east may be tucked a bit more under the upper level ridging. This would seem to aid in this systems development. May still be some lingering near term inflow issues while the larger broad low level swirl in the S. Central Gulf winds down, and am wondering if this is temporarily disrupting the point off Yucatan from becoming vertically stacked. Ongoing bursting of convection however will likely overcome those issues and once this does become a bit more of a vertically stacked system (tonight/tomm. a.m ?), than I think we will start to finally see a short term northward motion ensue.
While I still think that this system will eventually be shunted more westward, if I were in Tampa and points north into the Fla. Panhandle, I would'nt be adding any water to the pool for the next few days ( "Mother Nature" may well drop a few inches in for you!)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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I'll go with parked in the Yucatan Channel also.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/st...0000&loop=0
Not over til it's over, a lot could happen... waiting on recon for the real data but think it's parked, drifting vs moving.
Also, want to add the ULL to the NE of the storm... ENE? off the East Coast of Florida is the most dominate figure on the map, moving very slowly west, very slowly... think this might be a bigger factor right now on the storm than the weakening front to the north...both seems parked tho the ULL is moving slowly west, barely
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: West Coast Florida
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20-85 looks interesting Buoy data and ship reports....
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: West Coast Florida
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=4
29.9 knots
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Looking at the visible shots this morning it almost looks like the whole GOM has cyclonic turning which is probably a good reason this is having a hard time consolidating to one area...also looks like the Anticyclone is centered over the southern YP...also noticing not a lot of convergence near the convection either. The ULL well east of FL seems to have stopped the western movement and might be weakening
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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NPR16
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I think there was one model that showed a southwest Florida impact. If there is a new center then Debby is not far off imo.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Looks to me as if Debby is going to make us wait a bit. Tops are warming near Yucatan and still no obvious evidence of any surface circulation at that point. Plus, had just taken a look at surface obs from 2 different stations on NE Yucatan and saw no evidence of further pressure falls during the prior 12 hours. With the convection waning, it would be highly unlikely that any deepening will occur; at least until an new convective bursting occurs. Meanwhile, there still remains moderate upper level shear over the general area to the north and northwest of the Yucatan Channel. This would seem to be the inhibiting factor against the larger low level circulation evident on Vis. Sat. from becomming dominant at the moment.
So here we have it for the moment; a potential mid level center that is having difficulty working its way down to the surface over or just E. of Yucatan...., and a large more established low level center in the S. Central Gulf that is being hindered by the increased amount of shear and inhibiting dryer air this morning. Furthermore neither feature is going to get picked up by any mid level steering mechanism until some deepening occurs which basically means a fairly stagnant situation and certainly no rapid development. Models cannot be counted on at this time mostly because there is no clear consensus of where a center is or will be. It will be interesting to see during the diurnal max, where any new convection will start "popping" and then of course if it can be maintained.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Its looking to me like a LLC is trying to form on the NE tip of the YP 22.5N 87.5W (approx.) Its just on the western edge of the convection
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The latest and ensembles are keeping the system in the Gulf longer, and missing the front that would kick it over Florida, if that occurs, Northwestern Gulf, Texas would need to watch the closest. The CMC run aggressively develops it as it approaches Houston/Galveston.
Still models in general don't seem to have a good handle on the system, and if this reforms to the northeast of the Yucatan, the models will be off. So this is just one possibility, so the entire Gulf of Mexico still needs to continue watching.
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: West Coast Florida
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I agree Mike. About the doesn't always over hype the strength of a system??
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Looks as if the system is trying to get more organized and is headed for the central Gulf.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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This system is still very disorganized with broad convection spread from the Yucatan to Florida, the models are just not reliable right now, and I'm having doubts anything will form tomorrow now, perhaps Sunday. The water vapor loops of the system show no real signs of what I'd consider organization.
This in all likely may be what most June storms historically have been, a mostly disorganized mess bringing mostly rain. I wouldn't go by any of the models right now.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 107
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Based on the timing of the front to the NW and the ULL to the east this should be a western Gulf event.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 22 2012 10:52 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
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Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Still a considerable variance in the model outputs - and until this system has a well defined center the model outputs will be quite variable from run to run. I still think that this system will eventually consolidate - and I still think that the consolidation will be a slow process. The 23/00Z run has shifted back to a Florida peninsula impact, but not until midweek - and the just might have the best handle on this complex system. It now shows two energy pulses and they both cross Florida. The Sunshine State is probably not going to have much sunshine for awhile and the potential still exists for a heavy rainfall event.
ED
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Good morning...the area most of us now agree is a low center has migrated northward and a little westerly over night. The present dynamic supports that motion to continue. There is an upper cyclonic circulation just east of the Texas gulf coast that is sagging to the south a bit, and the steering seems to be influenced by the flow around that. The base of the trough now exiting the east coast will miss this to the north, and as it exits a northerly flow will be enhanced in its wake. If this stays fairly constant for a day or so longer, then the ultimate direction for this system should bring the low toward Miss/La gulf coast. Lets face it this will be mostly a rain maker without much wind impact, unless it stalls in the mid gulf for a day or two, Most of us need the rain and this system should be more beneficial than harmful.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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I can't say any more than what the main page analysis states this morning. I have a feeling that we will have Debby by this afternoon or evening and then we'll start seeing more definitive model runs over night. I'm still keeping my guard up just in case the eastward track verifies.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Current speculation, the is closer to target, but not for the usual reasons, more because it looks like the center keeps reforming nearer to the convection, and winds up slipping northeast each time. Model spread is crazy this morning, Mexico to Tampa and all points in between. If the were forced to issue an official forecast now, the TCVN would probably be it, (Near LA, and then slowly eastward along the gulf coast). Thus probably why they mentioning possible watches/warnings along the northern Gulf.
This storm will likely get no stronger than Tropical Storm strength, and some energy/rain may still split off toward the west just to make the euro happy.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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I'm still seeing apparent centers come and go with the latest centered near 26N; 87.9W and exposed. The convection remains East of that relative "center" (unless there is something tucked in under the convection near 25N; 85.5W). I'm looking at the floater RGB loop.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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12 is sticking to the same as earlier, over Florida. Nothing new... so far with the 12Z runs. Still clear as mud.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Wanted to add this is likely going to go straight to tropical storm status once recon hits it.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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Last few IR frames show outflow over the SE quadrant of the unformed storm. For a developing, not-yet-tropical system, it is looking very much like a formed system already.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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I am seeing low level circulation around a point near 26.5/87.5 exposed...A sheared system. Looks like some pretty quick cloud movement in the SE portion of the exposed circulation which could translate to classifiable winds.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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I'm seeing a broad circulation centered near 26N; 87W with smaller vortices rotating around it. I'm not entirely convinced that there really is a definite, closed circulation yet.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Quote:
Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
I see that, but it looks like a vortex that is rotating around a broader circulation. Either that, or it's moving south.
Floater RGB Loop
That "center" may be starting to gel as it appears in the last two frames now. Looks elongated E-W though.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
Edited by MichaelA (Sat Jun 23 2012 01:59 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Seems like a second vortex northeast of the one seeming to move south, just along the edge of the convection. But, as ceil said, this may be an illusion.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Michael, I'm thinking that is an optical illusion, and that there is most likely only one, primary center now, and it is the large, exposed LLC with multiple embedded, swirling eddies. Based on the flight so far, the eddies appear to be having little to no impact on the overall closed circulation, just transient swirls (snapshot below).
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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There are definitely some interesting dynamics going on there. With the center so exposed, I'm just having fun watching it all unfold. The didn't pull the trigger on the 2PM outlook, so pending the recon data, it will take a special advisory later this afternoon if the data confirms a closed, stable circulation.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Yeah, other vortices indeed, and in deference to both of you, it appears that the broad LLC with these embedded swirls may now in fact be in the process of passing the torch to the northeasternmost swirl. Recon passing through just found a lower pressure than the first pass through what was arguably the primary LLC not one hour ago. Sloppy system, but probably not so sloppy as to preclude an upgrade to TD, at a minimum, IMHO.
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weathernet
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Quote:
Quote:
Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
I see that, but it looks like a vortex that is rotating around a broader circulation. Either that, or it's moving south.
That "center" may be starting to gel as it appears in the last two frames now. Looks elongated E-W though.
Michael, I am tending to agree with you in that we have seen multiple vort centers try and vertically stack with the mid level, but only to have upper level shear ultimatly impact its tropical development, and thus ARE seeing tropical force winds and falling pressures but thus far been more "baroclinic in nature" and practically entirely on the systems east side. On the other hand, recon is certainly measuring the necessary winds to close off a center, yet where is the co-located convection?
Therefore out of necessity, and the "PC" thing to do, I assume that will likely very soon put out a Special Cyclone Update that will include applicable warnings for Gale/Tropical Storm force winds, tides, & flooding, however my guess is that present condition of 96L along with recent history, the system will initially be labeled as "Sub-Tropical" , but with expectation of continued slow transition to becoming a tropical entity.
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danielw
Moderator
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NHC must be reading your posts. Just kidding.
This is 13 minutes old.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
ELONGATED MONSOONAL LIKE CIRCULATION PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF
THIS MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF WEATHER AND WIND CONFINED TO E
SIDE OF CIRCULATION. STRONG SLY FLOW ON THIS E SIDE WAS VERIFIED
BY SEVERAL SHIP OBS AND WITH BUOY 42003 FLUCTUATING MID 20'S TO
BRIEF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...AND SEAS UP TO 15 FT.
BASED ON
THIS AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WITH
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON GALE FORCE WINDS IN Boundary Layer...HAVE
ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING ACROSS N QUADRANT THIS EVENING. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS MONSOONAL TYPE EVOLUTION...GALE
FORCE OR STRONGEST WINDS INITIALLY WILL REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS N AND NW QUADS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS IN TOWARD THE CENTER.
LLVL SWIRL CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SHED TO THE SW WITH
ANOTHER CENTER LIKELY TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER TO THE NE OF
THIS SWIRL...AND CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH ALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ELONGATED STRETCHING OF MOISTURE FIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ONLY THE REMAINS
ADAMANT IN SHEARING OUT SIGNIFICANT LLVL VORTICITY TO THE
NE...WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN PRETTY EVENLY
DISTRIBUTED ALL ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS BY 96 HOURS.
HAVE THUS
CREATED WIND AND PRES GRIDS STRONGLY WEIGHTED ON ...AND
USED A 50-50 BLEND OF ECWAVE AND WWIII FOR SEAS.
IT MAY TAKE A
FULL 48 HOURS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ATTAIN A TRULY TROPICAL TC
APPEARANCE...BUT GALE FORCE OR NEAR GALE WINDS...WITH SHOWERS
SQUALLS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE E AND NE PORTION
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NE
AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES. BUOY 42003
NOW REPORTING 14 FT SEAS AT 9 SECONDS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTLINES...AND COMBINE WITH STRONG E TO SE
WIND FLOW FOR HIGH WATER LEVELS LEADING TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 02:51 PM)
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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We Have Debby.
Please try not to post one liner posts. And explain your sources when making storm upgrades.
NHC has not declared 96L a Depression or Storm... Yet!` danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 03:00 PM)
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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quote]We Have Debby.
The GOM Low has not been upgraded. That link Still shows 96L as 96L. When the system is upgraded it will move to "invest_al042012.invest" and become Debby.~danielw
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/faq.php#rules
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Visit ABC ACTION NEWS WEATHER CHAT usually @7pm daily http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/wea...ws-weather-team
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 03:23 PM)
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weathernet
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Quote:
... it appears that the broad LLC with these embedded swirls may now in fact be in the process of passing the torch to the northeasternmost swirl. Recon passing through just found a lower pressure than the first pass through what was arguably the primary LLC not one hour ago. Sloppy system, but probably not so sloppy as to preclude an upgrade to TD, at a minimum, IMHO.
Ciel, just as you indicated above...., this is ultimately why I see the solution as more or less ultimately "playing out". Really is fascinating watching both - how 96L has continued to evolve, and how the models have attempting to guess "how" 96L will evolve. While the prior 0Z and this mornings' 12Z model runs have practically all other models (especially the EURO) depict nearly immediate development and then a west motion to eventually impact Texas, the has stubbornly predicted a less deep cyclone to evenually move easward and eventually out to sea.
Models are based on on initialized point and then to "follow the bouncing ball" with of course the net outcome being the longer term location and intensity. Where I think the other models have at least thus far gotten it wrong, is that an ultimate westward push of a tropical system would need be based upon 3 things, 1st: Having a vertically coherant tropical cyclone, 2nd: Upper level conditions to remain conducive for such a tropical system to maintain itself or strengthen, and 3rd: based upon the prior 2 points, to have mid level steering then in place to push the system westward ( or WSW'ward ). Well, thus far near term models do anticipate the U.S. Plains High to build eastward, however 96L up to this point seems to have migrated north and east over the prior 2-3 days. Even though upper level winds have relaxed a little and turned more southerly (than the prior westerly), I do not believe it is yet vertically developed, nor does the upper low cutting off in the W. Gulf seem to be dropping to the south to enchance 96L's west side outflow.
My guess at outcome? Probably a Special Subtropical Storm Advisory between now and 5:00pm, followed by gradual moderately improved upper air conditions that will result in Debby being named "Tropical" finally perhaps tomorrow or Monday at some point farther North and East of present location. Then given its moderate strength, less than perfect upper conditions, and Northeast'ward relocation, for Debbie to stall somewhere along the N.E. Gulf (Florida) coastline with perhaps 45-55mph winds, than possibly pushed S.E. ahead of the advancing mid level ridge, and then weaken over N. Central Fla while the mid level energy slips to the northeast. (If a stronger Debbie were to develop, only then might a 1985 "Elena like" motion towards the west perhaps occur)
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MikeC
Admin
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Yeah best track has it as Debby, and it triggered the auto upgrade warning on the left bar.
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al042012.invest
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
We Have Debby.
Please try not to post one liner posts. And explain your sources when making storm upgrades.
NHC has not declared 96L a Depression or Storm... Yet!` danielw
Denis Philips @ABC ACTION NEWS Met is my Source. I think he is a credible one?? Sorry I was the first to post being a Newbie.
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Visit ABC ACTION NEWS WEATHER CHAT usually @7pm daily http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/wea...ws-weather-team
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danielw
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What about the possibility of an unstacked cyclone. Low level moves West and mid and upper level moves East.
That would explain the split in the Euro and model. It would also explain what we are seeing on the sats right now.
Also remember the NE Quadrant is not the strongest wind field in a westward moving storm. The strongest winds are found in the Right Front Quadrant with respect to motion of the system. NE Quad becomes NW Quad when moving west. This explains, to a degree, why RECON found the max winds on the NW Inbound leg.
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danielw
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ATCF has upgraded 96L to Debby.
Thanks NPR16.
It's Official now and Advisories will be out Shortly.
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
ATCF has upgraded 96L to Debby.
Thanks NPR16.
It's Official now and Advisories will be out Shortly.
I see your point btw sorry about the one liner. If it's is allowed We have a Weather chat every night at 7pm. We talk to the NWS and other weather related guest. I will post the link. We would love to have all of yall. If that's cool
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
What about the possibility of an unstacked cyclone. Low level moves West and mid and upper level moves East.
That would explain the split in the Euro and model. It would also explain what we are seeing on the sats right now.
Also remember the NE Quadrant is not the strongest wind field in a westward moving storm. The strongest winds are found in the Right Front Quadrant with respect to motion of the system. NE Quad becomes NW Quad when moving west. This explains, to a degree, why RECON found the max winds on the NW Inbound leg.
think the is seeing the trof the nw ???
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cieldumort
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Recon has determined that the original LLC, and not its satellite eddies, is the primary center. This center, fixed at 25.9N 87.8333W, will probably meander or loop about in the general area, and may yet give way to more reformations.
As of 4PM EDT, recon is now headed into the deep convective leg in the eastern semicircle, where surface observations have occasionally come in today at or above 40MPH, gusting up to about 50+
Despite the fact that the western semicircle is relatively dry, the cyclone will likely be designated Tropical Storm Debby at 5PM. This dryness is mostly the result of ongoing shear being imparted on the cyclone from an upper level low in the northwestern Gulf, making it a sheared tropical cyclone, with some similarities to both subtropical storms and monsoon depressions; not a fully "classic" TC.
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MikeC
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A huge band of rainfall is coming onshore to southwest Florida and raising a few tornado warnings to boot. It may be a rough and rainy weekend here in Central/South Florida.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Recon is finding some pretty good winds right now, Debby may initialize around 50mph winds.
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weathernet
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Quote:
NHC must be reading your posts. Just kidding.
LOL, Dan - That was funny.....,
Now, to present circumstances - Could someone please raise the "HypeScale" to something closer to perhaps to 8.5 (tongue firmly placed in cheek) ?? Seriously though, I see the most recent LLC as just one more transient center destined to troll around and further detach itself from the parent mid level center, and unwind as the previous low level swirls did. I see a more dominant center possibly forming under the convection just south of 27N / 86W. I could be wrong about the current LLC and could be wrong about the next LLC but have to believe is the reason that has not yet officially announced a first advisory on this system.
Per your point regarding us NOT YET having "Debbie" (despite the upgrade warning as caused by Best Track), is due to the present dynamics of 96L as described in the very text that has been posted here from the Marine Weather Discussion in your prior post.
So far I have read here ( and other discussion boards ), that ATCF, Phillips - ABC News, the Navy, & "Best Track"-Hurricane Reasearch Div. have all announced Debbie (sorry, or Debby?) has been annointed.
Not to split hairs over terminology between Subtropical or tropical, however I also wonder if taken into account by ( or more specifically Lixion Avila ) is the near term risk of immediately upgrading this system based on recon, to only have a naked swirl eventually move westward and unwind. Given the the persistance of low level features being spit out and the mid level circulation outrunning a departed low level feature I think they are congnicent of the public's perception of "blown forecasts" which may occur due to the process of reformation of a developing or marginal cyclone.
Thats not to say that they will not classify this as T.S. Debby, but perhaps are in the process of determining if subtropical and/or how to carefully word forecast reasoning. There are reasons for the politics and even if most of us here reading the various posts and updates DO comprehend the dynamics of Tropical Cyclone genesis, the general public certainly does not. is probably being very careful to decide what/how to classify 96L given the reality of an existing low level center with at least tropical depression force winds, yet potentially "poof" it may be gone in 2-4 hours until perhaps a new low develops - or does not develop.
I just heard on another discussion board that Bastardi (formerly Accuweather I think) just tweeted this could be at least a Cat. 2 and on the Texas coast in a matter of days. Well he could very well be right, but contrary to my own thoughts a few days ago, I don't think so.
Regardless, to my knowledge has yet to establish an official advisory and already there are those calling this Tropical Storm Debby and how bad it might be. We're jumping the gun folks!
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NPR16
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Very Good Post. The best I have read anywhere all day.
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Visit ABC ACTION NEWS WEATHER CHAT usually @7pm daily http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/wea...ws-weather-team
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
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Invest 96L is indeed Tropical Storm Debby, but remember, this is not a contest. I'd rather be last and correct than first and wrong. Our hope is to reduce hype rather than create it.
Upper level westerly shear has exposed the center with all of the convection displaced to the east. The exposed center is now drifting to the south southwest - although a slow forward drift to the north is forecast by . Probably very little motion of any significance for the next couple of days.
ED
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doug
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W'net: indeed, IMO, the LLC identified is giving way to one that is more substantial to its ene...closer to 26.5/87...this does have some convection support on the north and east... it seems to be the same "center" id'd by Mike last evening... just along the left edge of the convection.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 23 2012 05:46 PM)
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Random Chaos
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Recon is showing what looks to be multiple LLCs. If you look at the last three "centers" found, they are no where near each other, and also not consistent with the overall motion on IR. Huge discrepancies in a very short time.
See screenshot:
Full Size image
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 08:07 PM)
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weathernet
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Yep, in fact now looking at the latest IR, I might almost make a case for a point exactly 1 degree east of the coord.'s you indicated, and myself believe could be under the newest "burst of convection" at 26.5 & 86.0. It really is hard to say and gotta give their props for doing the job that they do.
That said, and with the current situation being as fluid as it is, than assuming that we don't start seeing some newly forming convection co-located with the advisory fix position, it sure will be interesting to see tomm.'s first visible Satellite pics.
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weathernet
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Wow, your right?!! And just one other observation....., we've seen recon measure plenty of 270 degree (west) winds, and 315 degree winds, but oddly now that I am looking at your post cannot find any actual winds from the NNW to North.
This whole mess really seems more a mesoscale convective system than tropical storm for the moment. With the range of dynamics in play, would'nt it just be weird to have the present LLC truly rotate cyclonically back and under some newly forming MLC and just "bomb out" - dropping a quick 10 mb.s?? With the greater than normal spread of model solutions, the on-going evolution is really fascinating to watch.
That said, this really IS turning into a "paralysis of analysis"; i'm taking a break and getting some breakfast....., um I mean dinner.
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
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Ok, I'm lost. Just what is making the forcast this for Texas?
--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
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srquirrely
Weather Watcher
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Loc: SARASOTA 27.27N 82.53W
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Yes, "the on-going evolution is really fascinating to watch", especially at the link MikeC added yesterday: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?130
I just wish there were a way to drop the blank frames from the loop...
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18/9/4
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Random Chaos
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Glen:
Several models are showing that track. But a couple models are showing an east track. And a couple are showing a north track. had to provide some sort of guidance, and so they had to make an educated pick based on what they new at the time. We will not get "good" model guidance for around 12 hours. The next model run started, in a few hours, will be using the recon ingested data. When that model run is done in 9-12 hours, we should see some convergence in the models.
The only problem is the recon flight data is showing what appear to be multiple LLCs. We do not know which will become dominant, and if the model develops the wrong one, it's track will not match the actual storm path.
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kromdog
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Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
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Quote:
Ok, I'm lost. Just what is making the forcast this for Texas?
Thanks Random, I was wondering the same thing with the not having budged in two days.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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They are going with a stronger storm that moves west slowly over warm water.... they went with the Euro. Not an easy decision and one they can change at any time. Discussion in the 11pm should say a lot about how strong they are in believing their Western Solution.
A lot going on, that is why she is sitting there.
Meanwhile, until she wraps the majority of her convection around her and develops... it's a developing situation I think.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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The models have had a rough time all this week with 96L/ Debby.
The EURO wants to take Debby to Texas. Because she misses the trough and the Texas High steers her toward Texas. High pressure rotates clockwise and Debby will be on the SE Quadrant of the High so she moves west. That's the EURO version.
The on the other hand has Debby being picked up by the trough and moving NE toward Florida.
The Canadian is somewhat in the middle. Toward the Central Gulf Coast. It has varied as far west as just east of Galveston, TX this week. AND it was much stronger than the EURO and models.
I haven't checked the models today... so the above is what has been forecast this week. Yeah, I know. Shame on me. I was a bit more concerned with Where RECON would FIX 96L than I was with where she may go.
Steering currents at this time are rather weak and we could be watching Debby all week in the Northern GOM.
The current watches and warnings suffice for the next 48 hours. At that point the watches and/ or warnings will probably shift to the west. A little at a time.
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danielw
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Today, Saturday's model run down. Using the 850mb vorticity run and the 12Z morning model run.
Canadian, meanders south of the Louisiana Coast and makes landfall in Mississippi.
Euro makes landfall in Corpus Christi, TX area.
GFDL, run as 96L, weak and landfalls in the Florida Big Bend area just east of Apalachicola,FL.
GFS slings off one vortice through the Big Bend area, and the main vortice crosses the Florida Peninsula just south of Tampa,FL.
HWRF brushes the Louisiana Coast and heads toward a landfall just south of Galveston,TX. Pressure of 981mb at landfall.
(That could equate to a Hurricane at landfall. The pressure/ wind relationship would justify a 94 mph Maximum possible wind speed.)
NOGAPS makes landfall in the Brownsville,TX area.
Now we can see why is leaning toward a Texas landfall. All of the above are Model Projections and are 16 hours old at this time. But they give an idea of why the westward track forecast is more likely.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 11:30 PM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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think the is more viable than originally one would think tho would say it moves West eventually and slings off a vortex that develops towards the East...
or it's just picking up on competing centers...
hard call for them to make, if they have to make changes they will...nothing is carved in stone
curious to see next set of runs (we always say that i know but so true with this storm)
a door was left open in the discussion at 11 pm to make changes down the road if they are warranted
"MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. "
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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cieldumort
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To add to what Daniel has shared above, the only major model to swing Debby across Florida and out to sea has been the , and when you actually break down the into its ensemble members, generally half of them actually take Debby west, not east.
Viewed in total, the vast majority of models take Debby west or northwest.
A few models want to toss a mid-range Tropical Storm Debby up into Louisiana or thereabouts, and then the consensus models, which also take Debby up into the deep south, are essentially just splitting the difference between the and the EURO, and not selecting the middle Gulf coast because they see anything in particular that other models do not.
Generally, the models that anticipate Debby to be a deeper feature are the ones forecasting landfall between northeastern Mexico and the upper Texas coast.
Presently, it is expected that the upper level low in the northwestern GOM responsible for punishing Debby's western half with so much shear will dig southwest, and perhaps weaken, allowing a protective high to build in nicely aloft. Such a scenario would in theory support Debby becoming a significant hurricane, all else being equal.
Considering Debby's potential to become a large and potent hurricane, interests along the western Gulf will want to pay very close attention, and see if this is how things evolve over the next few days.
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danielw
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Based on the latest satellite imagery it appears that the NE Quadrant is intensifying very well. We still have about 4 to 5 hours before Dmax, and that quadrant is looking nasty.
NHC Center position is denoted by the "X".
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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A few notes here.... the funktop shows explosive development to the East of Debby
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html
Several models seem to be coming closer and closer towards La being in play, whereas earlier models showed a straight beeline for Texas... watch changes and trends in models carefully.
WV shows a still hostile set up for development or deepening development at Debby as to where X marks the spot. That is why the Eastern side is doing better as conditions are riper there for intensification, however that is not where the semi naked center of Debby is.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Debby is almost impossible to find on the WV loop, yet that wild ULL is where Debby is forecast to be down the road...
Obviously a very complex set of problems...not to mention possible fronts and other factors.
Lastly, hope we are not getting into a Irene situation where we keep tracking a naked center and the strong weather is doing major damage elsewhere. Until this system wraps the "weather" to the East into it's center of circulation we need to look at the WHOLE storm system as a weather maker...including areas and beaches far from the point of possible landfall that will get huge amounts of weather and possible flooding storm surge.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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These two Lightning trackers give a little bit more insight to what is happening offshore.
Waveland,MS Lightning
Crestview,FL Lightning
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
SECURITE
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 26.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM DEBBY NEAR 26.3N 87.5W 998 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 24
MOVING IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT AND
90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DEBBY NEAR 27.2N 89.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DEBBY NEAR 27.2N 91.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DEBBY NEAR 27.2N 93.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DEBBY NEAR 27.2N 95.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
edited~danielw
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The 24/00Z continues to eventually track Debby across the central Florida peninsula. The 24/00Z has shifted from a Mississippi landfall to a track across the north Florida peninsula. It will be interesting to see if the 24/12Z UKMet still maintains a westward motion. Gulf storms are notorious for busting well-intentioned forecasts  Everyone along the Gulf coast should remain vigilant - any current track forecast has to be viewed with low confidence until Debby goes toward _____ (fill in the blank).
ED
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Quote:
To add to what Daniel has shared above, the only major model to swing Debby across Florida and out to sea has been the , and when you actually break down the into its ensemble members, generally half of them actually take Debby west, not east.
Viewed in total, the vast majority of models take Debby west or northwest.
 As an update to the prior model discussion, the 0Z runs show an eastward shift for most of the major models, the UK now shifted to the east and no longer takes Debby to Texas and instead moves the storm N.W. into New Orleans. The Canadian now takes the storm across the Florida panhandle and into the Atlantic, the takes Debby across the Florida Panhandle. As I see it, 3 major models take Debby northeast across N. Florida (GFS, , ), one to the NNW across S.E. Louisiana (UK), which leaves the EURO as the outlier taking the storm to Texas (and still awaiting its 0Z update)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I see the forecast discussion written. I also see the Water Vapor Loop.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif
The stalemate is over with regard to steering currents i think and the path to the north is no longer blocked... or rather a path towards the Panhandle/NW Florida area...
Canadian also supports this and in the end the may have been right.
That water vapor loop changed drastically over the last few hours. Possibly the moisture itself from the east side of the storm helped to break it down. Not sure, but it's not just about a strong cold front diving down.
It's about the path that is easiest to take... that is what weak storms do..they go with the flow or they go with the easy road... and they try and stay away from sand traps or other negative factors.
Will see how she looks on morning visible.
Anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's right now.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Models are interesting overnight, pretty much stayed the same, toward central Gulf Coast, and most surprisingly the Euro moved quite east, (To New Orleans).
Debby remaiins relatively unorganized.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Quote:
Quote:
...one to the NNW across S.E. Louisiana (UK), which leaves the EURO as the outlier taking the storm to Texas (and still awaiting its 0Z update)
UPDATE: Well, perhaps the still takes Debby to the Texas coast; 0Z EURO has Debby making landfall in extreme S.E. Louisiana as a 985mb hurricane. Could still drag westward from there, but a significant "right hand" shift here as well.
If in fact if Debby moves N.N.E. and over N. Central Florida as it appears to be doing, I believe post analysis of model discrepancies will bare out that with this particular storm, the had "better initialized" strength & position for each of its more recent runs. Therefore, if Debby were right now a more vertically developed storm and perhaps 150 miles farther to the west, perhaps Debby would now be moving more westward.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Yeah watched the shift in the models blurry eyed last night or rather than early this morning.
Figures the Euro would shift. Question is does it shift on the next run as well?
As I said, the WV loop showed this becoming an easy path for Debby.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif
She is still in ORGANIZATIONAL mode, still organizing, we need to remember that.
I do think it's putting the horse before the cart worrying where she will go in 5 days while the West Coast of Florida and the beaches to the North are getting slammed. If twisters form again today, a possibility...she could take a tremendous financial toll on Florida while making landfall further to the North.. around Mobile Bay or even La... though the Florida Panhandle is looking more and more like ground zero.
Discounting the is sort of like pretending it's not raining in Florida. Even if you don't go with it, you still need to keep watching it in the rear view mirror... consistency in a forecast model is worth noting.
It's not just whistling Dixie, it's reading something that the others are not reading or giving emphasis to ..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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I'm thinking the center fixes from recon this morning are more likely relocation of the center than actual movement. Also the ULL in the western gulf is chugging SW at a good clip now and looks to be weakening. I dont, however, see the ridging on the water vapor loop look like it is pushing in an east/west orientation. Its like Debby is caught directly in the middle of the trough diving SE and the high over TX. I am also seeing more banding like clouds popping up on the western side (not too much), and they dont seem to be getting blown off so quickly like they have been
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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This appears to be the situation. The models did a poor job handling the intensity and location of the ULL in the northwest GOM, which I think ultimately forced Debby more to the northeast, ahead of, and possibly helping delay or prevent, the eastward building of the ridge that the and other models relied on to make their forecasts.
At this point, Debby is so far north that it probably now has a slightly better than 50% chance of being picked up by the digging trough, and as been discussed elsewhere, may go ahead and flip the cone in the next few hours to account for this.
A track across north Florida, or Florida & south Georgia, looks like an increasingly pretty good bet.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Debby is so close to land her weather is basically making landfall... as in tropical storm conditions are being experienced over a good swath of land...
Even has changed from N at 2 to NE at 6...
look at the weather warnings on the opening page of the site............
models did not do such a bad job, people did a bad job of reading the models... hey everyone makes mistakes, tropical forecasting is not for the faint of heart
the ULL was not weighted as strong as it should have been as everyone was looking north at the front
this is where the water vapor comes in hand
you have to match up all the data and models and if they don't make sense, you are missing something
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I have been alerted to a possible track change in the 12Z models.
The , Canadian and UKMET are now indicating a possible track toward the Florida Big Bend area.
GFS and Canadian are now faster with the movement and that would place Debby ahead of the trough.
Waiting to see what the shows in it's 12Z run. (Should be out in a little over two hours.)
My personal opinion is that of Lois'. The major portion of the storm is near or at landfall in the Pensacola / Appalachee Bay area. I'm basing this on storm symmetry and where the CoC would normally be located.
The LLC is still displaced to the west-southwest of the major convection. It had tried to wrap convection at first light but something in the main storm disrupted the process. Most likely an outflow boundary or something similar.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 24 2012 01:19 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Recon found a 77 knot flight level wind recently, in a system like this, it means weather will be extremely haphazard, some areas along the coast may not see much, others may get hammered. I doubt this holds since the system is still pretty unorganized. It does indicate that it's still trying to organize, and may make us miserable for as long as it holds out over water.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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possibly a worst case scenario is she could skim the coast if she can follow the plan and go west... creating havoc across an ever larger swatch of beaches in Alabama and Mississippi. However, she'd have to do that without the weather that is racing inland and hovering over Tampa Bay and other points across Florida.
I do see her visible circulation... but again as said and needs to be said again she is a work in progress
if this all verifies tho.. the has won big time the battle of the models
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Euro has moved to a landfall in the Panhandle near Pensacola 3 days from now.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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question is does it make landfall and then bounce down and retrograde back into the Gulf again......or what?
saw the model, I think it left some long term questions IF you go with the Euro... which left the at the Altar
do you blend that with the and say she moves INLAND... and is gone... or do you believe it lingers around Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay?
unclear on what it shows for the long term forecast
on the Visible imagery she looks to be trying to wrap moisture and wondering if she can intensify before landfall
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The 12Z UKMet is now in:
UKMet Model
Just about a complete 180 from 24 hours ago. It should be enough to generate quite a revision in the next update.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'm leaning toward landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida, in Apalachee Bay around 12-15Z Monday morning (which means that Debby will probably come to a screeching halt at any moment now). 
Given the current displacement of the convection away from the center, additional intensification does not seem likely.
ED
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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Quote:
I'm leaning toward landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida, in Apalachee Bay around 12-15Z Monday morning (which means that Debby will probably come to a screeching halt at any moment now). <img src="http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/cyclone/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />
Given the current displacement of the convection away from the center, additional intensification does not seem likely.
ED
Ok, I've learned a lot from you folk, but I'm still just an IT nerd that works for Macys. What the sam hill is 12-15z? And I've been going with the Florida model for a while. Only problem is, I'm just north of Gainesville, so that put's your prediction just about 90 miles from me.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
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Wingwiper
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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Quote:
Ok, I've learned a lot from you folk, but I'm still just an IT nerd that works for Macys. What the sam hill is 12-15z? And I've been going with the Florida model for a while. Only problem is, I'm just north of Gainesville, so that put's your prediction just about 90 miles from me.
z is GMT, or UTC (Google 'em). EDT = Z-4, so possible landfall between 0800 and 1100 tomorrow morning.
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Wingwiper
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...THREAT TO LOUISIANA LESSENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Looking at the 12Z run, it has Debby making landfall near St. Marks on Tuesday afternoon. The 12Z (which has been consistent with the eastward track) has it making landfall closer to Cedar Key late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Of course, the heaviest weather remains well to the east of the center over West Central Florida. Apparently, we have a few days of periods of heavy rain and gusty winds ahead of us before all of this is over and done with.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hate to throw a snag in the forecast. But the new 00Z and BAM Suite take the storm back west toward MS/ LA.
Granted the SHIP and DSHIP are at Tropical Depression wind speeds. It would still take Debby 120 hours or 5 days to reach those forecast points.
I'm still looking at the new guidance. Will update as necessary.
Links are time sensitive and display the latest Guidance
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CHGHUR&max=61
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CHGQLM&max=61
Looking at the 18Z and HWRF they are now considered old.
GFDL makes an initial landfall at the Mouth of the Mississippi River and then bounces over to a second landfall near Gulfport,MS at 992mb.
HWRF makes a single landfall near Orange Beach,AL or the eastern side of Mobile Bay.
GFDL/GHM and HWRF-use nested area
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 24 2012 09:00 PM)
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
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For technical reasons, the "official" landfall is still debatable. Living in Tampa, Debby has landed!
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I've been saying Mobile Bay to Pensacola Bay for days... though agree with many in "spirit" the "tropical storm weather" associated with Debby made landfall in Tampa, Port St. Joe, etc.......and points up and down the Florida coast. A strong squall line/band is moving across Florida with severe weather towards the East coast of Florida.
But, we go with the exact center when we talk "landfall" however...........the problem with messy, poorly formed tropical storms is they don't have the worst weather in an "eye wall" around the center of circulation.
This happens all the time. Sometimes it slides into swampy, low areas and other times it hits densely populated areas....
I wish there was a way to handle tropical storms like this that was different from the way we track and cover hurricanes or well formed tropical storms.
Deaths have been reported across a wide area. Will the name be retired now?
Dry air wrapping around Debby have created one heck of a dry line racing through Florida ...now on it's way to Fort Pierce....
And, suddenly she appears "gone" like "poof" in the night.. but she is still there ....even though she is hard to find.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html
Glad I'm not writing the discussion tonight, can't wait to read it... need good discussion out of the .
A storm that will need to be reviewed in retrospect to learn from the mistakes made...
Tornado Warnings abound currently......
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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It should be an interesting discussion tonight from . It appears Debby has gone poof. I cant find a circulation anywhere on sats. Of course i am an amatuer and probably am not looking for it correctly. All the same, i am beginning to wonder if Debby survives the night
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Is anyone else noticing the big convective blowup north of the YP? It seems to be heading in Debby's direction? That reminds me that originally the said this would be a double barrel system
Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Jun 24 2012 11:00 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Quote:
It should be an interesting discussion tonight from . It appears Debby has gone poof. I cant find a circulation anywhere on sats. Of course i am an amatuer and probably am not looking for it correctly. All the same, i am beginning to wonder if Debby survives the night
Debby is still there, but her center has never had much convection to speak of -- thus, because the sun has gone down and we are using IR now, her center is barely visible. That said, she is in a weakening phase at the moment, and even the peripheral convection has waned quite a bit. More than likely, this is transient, and within a few hours to half a day some kind of resurgence of convection will commence.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Quote:
Is anyone else noticing the big convective blowup north of the YP? It seems to be heading in Debby's direction? That reminds me that originally the said this would be a double barrel system
The blowup near the Yucatan is just her tail. However, it is possible that her tail does eventually become the focal point of some brand new TC development (maybe a 10% - 20% chance, IMHO).
It is probably "exploding" at the moment in response to upper air dynamics and dry air causing the line to gust out, producing a gust front that appears to be racing south and southeast, firing convection as it goes. This is not indicative of new development. In fact, that is unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The overnight and Euro runs now take Debby right across Central Florida (over orlando) around wed. night / thursday. Florida won't be clear of Debby until Thursday night with that scenario. The keeps it weak, while the Euro brings it back tuesday/wed.
Beyond that it may move up offshore the east coast and possibly affect cape cod or Newfoundland, which would imply about another 10-12 days of Debby tracking.
What could change this is if the naked swirl dies out and no new center really forms.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Might I suggest that the first signs of the really being on the money might be a deepening of the system as it's convection hits the Atlantic which is what the kept showing over and over. Well, it showed a few things but basically it wrapped up more after it exited South Florida than in the Gulf.
Something we might see play out. Worth looking for... as it will say a lot as to the forecast down the line.
Other than the forecast of her being anchored for days...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html
I'd watch that and the funktop for any signs of that odd part of the forecast playing out. Because, if it does play out I believe the system could slide up along the coast with one model showing it coming very close to the Outer Banks.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
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The latest Advisory now extends Tropical Storm Warnings south to Englewood, FL.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EASTWARD MOTION
BY ABOUT A 3 TO 1 RATIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM.
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Kudos to those who kept faith in the . I caved into the Texas solution many days ago. As I live in Orlando I am happy to see that Debby is not much of a threat any longer.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Is landfall occurring on St. George Is. now?
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doug
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Don't think so, perhaps a big cyclonic loop, and dragging in some convection back in. It did seem to get close, and either an elongated or multiple vortex situation. Still unsure.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Yeah, you are probably right.
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doug
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Wingwiper
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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Quote:
Is landfall occurring on St. George Is. now?
I called the SGI state park ranger station this morning at 9AM and there was no answer. I suspect thay have more important things to do than answer the phone right now 
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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I guess it is once again time to change the future course, as Debby has obviously blown into the Florida panhandle.
(Actually, it obviously didn't!)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 29 2012 11:31 PM)
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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Been calling Florida all along, and since I live in Gainesville, I'm extremely glad to see we're dealing with TS and not hurricane. This is really going to fill up the water table, something we've needed for years. Odd that the first two named storms started just north of Jacksonville, and gave us plenty of rain, now we have this. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Just sorry I have Dish Network, cause it sure does not work in this weather. Tornado watch till 11, flood warning till Wed, still a lot better than the snow and tornadoes of Chicago.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Interesting to note that dry air aloft is really shoving eastward - already over the northern half of the peninsula - and there is very little deep convection left with this system. I'm sure that the dry air has limited the aggressive development of the existing feeder bands. Center now seems to have moved more toward the east northeast over the past few hours although the system is such a slow mover it probably takes at least a half of a day to determine a trend.
ED
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Debby is becoming more and more elongated from ENE to WSW and is near shore and showing some sign of accelerating. There's an interesting feature on the models which splits the vorticity with this system. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a non-tropical low that forms on the frontal system off the coasts of GA, SC and FL. Debby has been a shallow system now for two days and water vapor shows no upper level circulation of any kind above her...I say non-tropical given there is shear from the SW aloft and the longwave trough along the Eastern Seaboard...if and when it weakens and lifts away; what remains might re-acquire tropical characteristics.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Based on satellite alone, it seems the center is moving sse, perhaps the high is having more influence than expected, still the center is completely void of convection, so that doesn't matter so much.
Jacksonville is getting effects from the second tropical storm in a single year, which is very unusual in itself.
Edit, radar also makes it appear to be moving south southeast, actually back over the Gulf at the moment.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tampa radar confirms that Debby is now well south of Cedar Key and moving to the south southeast - still over water. Convection around the weak center and in the main feeder band is picking up a bit. The rain area to the east northeast of the center is also sliding slowly to the south. It will be interesting to see how decides to resolve this unexpected change.
Whats left of the center of TD Debby probably will cut across north of Tampa and over Orlando to the Cape. The did a pretty good job with this storm.
ED
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DaViking
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: Crystal River, FL
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I don't post much.
But looking at doppler out of Tampa, it apears to me that perhaps the low has, or is in the process of dissipating at least at the lower levels as of 11:30 pm.
Boy, this has probably been the craziest storm that I have ever tracked. It just will not do what the models say it should. Yesterday I think the at one point showed the low moving SE and S after weakening and then meandering in the gulf for a while, strengthening a bit, then moving across the peninsula and slowly up the East coast. I believe it was the 12Z and 18Z 6/25/12 runs.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 27 2012 12:18 AM)
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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I an in st petersburg and as of right now wind switched to the northwest and gusty so if there is still a center it passed by in the past half hour. it must be chugging along now still to the southeast or it got absorbed by the trough. Not sure which.
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DaViking
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: Crystal River, FL
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After taking one last look at the Doppler radar out of Tampa at just short of 3:00 am. I assume that the low has either dissipated or has been absorbed by the trough. I presume that Debby is no more, and the may issue the final advisory on Debby at 5 am.
According to satellite imagey. I assume the center is somewhere between Hernando and Orange County Florida. And the remnant low is moving SE at a good clip now in a South Easterly Direction. It is hard to tell, and looks like an early Spring Cold front crossing the state.
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Hurricane warnings and no hurricanes?!?!
1992: Andrew--- in Norway
1995: Erin
1998: Georges
1999: Gordon
2004: Charley, Frances, Jeanne
2006: Alberto
Guess I'm just lucky! Nya nya!
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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since there was no intermediate advisory at 2 am i assume they will cease advisories on this at 5 am
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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I stand corrected. 5am advisory is out. I certainly do not see a LLC but i guess there is one. Still think that debby is on verge of death. This one was definitly an interesting one to follow. Time to watch the east atlantic wave.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 127
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
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I wouldn't count Debby out yet. There seems to be two very distinct LLC's on Visible Satellite runs. On the Jun 27th 11:45 UTC shot one looks to be at 80.5W and 29.5N, while the second appears to be at 81.25W and 28.5N. The is picking up on the former I believe as the storm's center, but these could be vorticies within an elongated center of circulation, or perhaps a decoupling/slant of the storm's low and mid level circulations.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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There is a vortex immediately west of the blow up of convection. What has been interesting about this system all along, structurally, is that it has had extremely long tenticles that has grabbed and drawn energy from hundreds of miles away and it is still doing it now. This is why, I guess, that an extremely sheard system, over run with dry air, has survived and fostered destructive bands of weather displaced hundreds of miles from the LLC. It also has commanded thousands of square miles of weather at any one time. Not too bad for a system that peaked, so far, at 60 MPH. Goes to show that it does not have to be a super storm to reap chaos and havoc on society.
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doug
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HeadacheslayerInFL
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Central FL
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Hi all, new here, not new to FL (native). Wish I had known about this forum earlier....I get gut feelings about storms. Debby was one of them. And I agree with those who say not to write her off. This storm is off her meds  Looking at some of the latest spaghetti plots, some have her doing a loop (or 3) and then coming back for more. My gut isn't telling me much right now (my head though--oy. I hate storm-related migraines). So I'll be keeping a weather eye over the next few days, and of course, see what you all have to say
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Headacheslayer, Central Florida
It's not THAT the wind blows, it's WHAT the wind blows--Ron "Tater Salad" White
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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I was surprised there wasn't a 2 am intermediate advisory released; that said, I was still up at that time and I couldn't find Debby on IR satellite or radar; I'm betting couldn't find her either and what observations at 2 am were suggesting is either the center reformed farther east or the center split in half; one piece moving SSE towards Tampla; the other continuing to move ENE closer to convection which was over the Atlantic. I looked at the buoy data and there was no help there either. It boiled down to two observation sites; one near Tampa and the other was St. Augustine for lowest pressure. We all thought last night she was moving towards Tampa due to what believed was a gust front...I think a part of her did and dissipated there; the other is where plots had her from the start. One note...a thunderstorm complex is capable of developing vorticity maximums or mesoscale lows...last night NWSFO Miami had to issue wind advisories for their neck of the woods for sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 and 45 mph...well removed from Debby...but not gravity wakes which is a subject for another day.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Ron White...we had a high school principal who got himself in trouble for saying "You can't fix, stupid!" He was eventually reinstated after students protested...let me say, welcome to the website...Ed and Mike run this show and their what I call good people. I'm one of the administrators on the Facebook page so you may see my comments on both pages. The problem with Debby is the storm never had a real chance had coming completely together before synoptic (big scale) features had something to say about the future of the storm; worse, we have in the met business something called COLs...and two big upper ridges, one unusually deep trough for the time of year; a rogue upper low in the GOM, a surface front supported by that trough make for interesting forecast challenges. Living in FL you know hurricanes inflict their damage with winds; depressions and tropical storms inflict their damage with copious rain; safe to say a good chunk of N FL and S GA won't be experiencing any droughts any time soon but say hello to some serious humidity as temps soar to near 100 later in the week; again welcome to the site and take care! Bill
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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welcome to the site. I know what you mean about 'feelings' versus the models. I noticed a couple have her looping back, but those are the BAM suite which has really done a horrible job on the main part of this storm from the beginning. Don't see her doing a loop now that she seems caught in a pretty solid easterly flow. Stranger things have happened with this storm but those models have little 'cred' with Debby!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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Welcome. Don't have a clue anymore about Debby. Powers that be said look out Texas, I was one of those that said it was coming to Florida. I'm just north of Gainesville, and was sure it was going to come right at me last night, but when it hit land, it dropped south, and went across Ocala. Go figure. I wouldn't doubt it loops around and hit's NY.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Debby is looking better today on satellite imagery than she has for a long time. Then again, does she have a real center of circulation or is that just a ball of convection like always Debby is not one to follow the plan.
Models did show her reintensifying where she is now and she is a "yellow circle" on the Home Page sharing an equal 10% chance with the Atlantic Wave that is still battling it's way west through negative conditions.
Both interesting.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
Will the upgrade her again?
I'm more curious on the Tropical Wave, but I don't think we have seen the last of Debby.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Why wouldn't Debby be come a subtropical storm...isn't that appropriate if the low is a baroclinic low? And, isn't that what this now is? Inquiring mind wants to know.
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doug
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Quote:
Debby is looking better today on satellite imagery than she has for a long time. Then again, does she have a real center of circulation or is that just a ball of convection like always Debby is not one to follow the plan.
Debby's convection, as has always been the case, is largely weighted to one side (in the case of the past few days, on her northern half). Her convective "balls" have rarely been indicative of where her actual center of circulation is, but rather, just where the preponderance of most inclement weather is occurring at any given time.
As can be seen in the ASCAT pass below from earlier today, Debby has just about shed all of her frontal mesh, and has redeveloped a pretty well defined surface circulation.
The above image shows surface winds easily in the 35-40 knot range, especially considering that ASCAT has a well documented low bias.
Given that there is still arguably some meaningful frontal interaction, however lessened it has become this morning, it may be prudent for to hold back on restarting advisories just yet, but it is probably getting to be a close call.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Extra-tropical storm Debby is not tropical; looking at enhanced water vapor imagery reveals her energy source is baroclinic (derive energy from contrast in temperatures) and there is strong subsidence in the wake of the longwave trough which is now supporting the system. For a PTC to regain tropical cyclone status; the upper support has to weaken and/or leave behind the low level circulation and thunderstorms have to once again develop near the center and that simply is not the case. This evening as the PTC accelerates to the ENE the system once again has become elongated as subsidence is impinging it from the north. It is not uncommon for depressions to strengthen via temperature contrast as post-tropical cyclones which is the case here. Looking at shear analysis; for the near future; this cyclone has zero chance of obtaining tropical cyclone characteristics.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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The entry above related to what was happening early yesterday morning through afternoon, when several of the processes necessary for tropical regeneration were starting to come into play, and for a few hours, a complete regeneration was starting to look promising ... but, no doubt, six, ten hours later and we are now looking at a very different situation.
Here is a look at Debby from about 1845 on the 28th:
And from 2215
As can be seen in the images above, moderate to deep convection had wrapped around Debby's then tight LLC. Additionally, buoy, scatterometer, and phase space analysis strongly suggested that most of the intensification was manifestly subtropical to tropical in nature during that time. A few short hours, but it might make for some interesting post-season reading, if nothing else
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