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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Wave over Puerto Rico?
      #93004 - Thu Jul 05 2012 09:00 AM

I just noticed a feature that is firing up over Puerto Rico this morning. It looks interesting (wave-like to my untrained but experienced eyes), but I don't see anything on the NHC site or anywhere else much about it. The models I have access to don't show anything potentially cooking down there...yet there it is. Am I making something out of nothing? It looks like more than just a flair up of thunderstorms and is progressing toward Haiti.

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Wave over Puerto Rico? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #93005 - Thu Jul 05 2012 04:44 PM

It's a large wave or what is referred to often as a "wave axis" meaning it's large, disorganized and oozes more than moves.... BUT..........it's really very "there" and noticeable and hard to ignore.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of model support, possibly why the NHC has not put up a "yellow circle" but it is there.

Also noticed today that the northern part of the wave seems to be moving towards an ULL to the North making me wonder if this convection is going to end up more in the Bahamas than to the South as previously thought.

Or...the north part goes north and the southern part slides into the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

NWS is able to monitor it on PR radar...from their forecast discussion:

.SYNOPSIS...THE TRAILING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE A SEVERE STORM FORMED AND MOVED
FROM PATILLAS NORTHWESTWARD TO VEGA BAJA. SOME REPORTS OF POWER
OUTAGES...DOWNED TREES AND STRONG WINDS WERE RECEIVED WITH THIS
SEVERE STORM. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI
RECEIVED MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD INTO HISPANOLA.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

Edited by LoisCane (Thu Jul 05 2012 04:53 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Wave over Puerto Rico? [Re: LoisCane]
      #93006 - Thu Jul 05 2012 10:39 PM

I didn't think I was seeing things. I now see the ULL to the northeast on the Caribbean WV loop. The whole convective area looks like it is lifting a bit to the north since this morning. Could it get caught up in the trof that looks like it is trailing the ULL and the whole thing head up the Atlantic?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Wave over Puerto Rico? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #93007 - Fri Jul 06 2012 09:24 AM

I was thinking that too ....more yesterday than today.

If there was a "center" I think it took off towards the North and it's hard to find.

The lower level moisture is oozing west...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

An area in the SW Carib seems to be "blossoming" and also adding to shear from below... the trough to the north is racing down towards it... looks bleak for the wave that caused so much weather in PR and the islands yesterday.

It had the appearance the other day of something happening.. then lost it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

And, I don't think that can be blamed completely on African Dust...

A wave needs to be stacked to properly develop... which was a problem with Debby whose weather always stayed far from her center. This wave needs a center.

Either way... what you said definitely can be seen played out on long loops.

Great discussion out of Key West NWS:

".A WAVE IN THE
EASTERLIES IS ANALYZED ABOUT 500-700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...WITH A WAVE AXIS RUNNING FROM NEAR GRAND TURK TO JAMAICA. THIS
WAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHED
THE LARGE DIFLUENT ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE"

See what today brings...

Wondering how much the area in the SW Carib is affecting it as well now..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Wave over Puerto Rico? [Re: LoisCane]
      #93008 - Fri Jul 06 2012 10:05 AM

Hi Lois:

There is no upper level support for any development of the TW from the Bahamas to Jamaica.. However, that and the trough over the peninsula should enhance rain in southern Florida over the next couple of days.

The SW Carribean is analyzed as the monsoon trough.
Development is more conceivable from this region, but upper level conditions are hostile too.

Not much expected in the foreseeable.

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Wave over Puerto Rico? [Re: doug]
      #93010 - Fri Jul 06 2012 09:20 PM

Huge convective flair-up over eastern Cuba this evening. Could be energy from our little friend still making its way northwest. We don't need another Debbie in Florida, but decent rains to refill the aquifer are always welcome....as long as the flooded areas are dried out a bit since Debbie. The area mentioned in the SW Caribbean has a nice bloom just off-shore of Nicaragua as well. Lots of energy still around with the moisture if the right conditions line up.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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