MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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1:00 AM EDT 9 August 2012:
Much of Erneso's internals actually organized more into landfall, and for the first several hours after landfall a distinct eye feature was still very noticeable in the enhanced infrared images.
Tropical cyclones that intensify into landfall and go on to cross a peninsula (such as Florida, or in this case, the Yucatan) often have a very good chance of pulling things back together rapidly once getting back out over the water. Such appears to be the case with , with recon finding winds up at 5,000' of nearly 100 MPH, and peak surface winds of around 65 MPH, which has been set as the current advisory as of 11:00 PM EDT Aug. 8.
Ernesto has a window of about 12-30 hours, based on exact track and forward speed, to become a hurricane again. At present, this looks likely, and that is reflected in 's official forecast which is calling for a second landfall as a hurricane, this time with the center coming ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Chilitepec, MX..
It is expected that will drop widespread rainfall totals of 3"-9", with potentially much higher totals in some locations, over Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla & northern Oaxaca through Friday, with even more heavy rain possible over the weekend. As a result, dangerous inland flooding will probably occur in parts of these states from today through Sunday.
Ciel
11:35 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Hurricane made landfall along the coast of the extreme southern Yucatan at about 10:00 PM CDT near Mahahual, MX., and is now crossing the peninsula.
Ciel
10:40 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Strong Category 1 Hurricane is likely within 15-45 minutes of making landfall along the southeastern Yucatan peninsula. Then if it follows the official forecast, will likely initially remain a hurricane, and then a strong tropical storm, as it crosses the peninsula over the next 18-36 hours before exiting into the Bay of Campeche to briefly restrengthen before a final, second Mexican landfall, Thursday night.
Hurricane will become the first landfalling hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Ciel
2:40 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Ernesto has been upgraded to a hurricane. Maximum sustained winds found by recon are now roughly 80MPH, and the pressure has continued to drop, now 983mb.
Ciel
7:45 AM EDT 7 August 2012:
Ernesto has been fighting dry air for a while, and disrupted the intensification process and seems to we working through that now, it still has a chance to become a hurricane later today before landfall tomorrow morning near or just north of Belize in the Yucatan.
has become a large tropical storm which will likely bring some storm surge to areas north of landfall with heavy rains, those in the area beware of a strengthening storm, and prepare for a hurricane at landfall..
In the east Atlantic 92L is being tracked as it moves west. It has a 20% chance for development in the next 2 days. This one is likely to stay on a westerly course for a while, and may be worth watching next week if it nears the islands.
The remnants of Florence only have a 10% shot to regenerate.
Belize radar recording (Alternate)
Webcam recording, Cozumel El Cid resorts. (Alternate)
9:15 AM EDT 6 August 2012:
Recon has found an eyewall, a fully circular one and 6 nautical miles wide in this morning, after not finding much of anything yesterday. Based on this, I'd expect a special advisory fairly soon and Hurricane Watches and Warnings up for Honduras/Belize fairly soon.
This area of the Caribbean is known for rapid intensification of storms, and if has the eyewall as stated by the recon vortex message, intensification is already underway and is probably a hurricane now. Those in the current Tropical Storm Warning areas and Belize should be preparing for a possibly strong hurricane approaching.
7:30 AM EDT 6 August 2012:
Ernesto has held overnight and continues to move due west, because of this new watches and warnings are up:
Honduras from the Nicaragua border west to Puntal Sal has a Tropical Storm Warning, as may very well make landfall or past just to the north of there.
Hurricane Watches are up from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa in Mexico along the Yucatan since if stays north of Honduras it has a last shot for intensification before landfall.
Tropical storm watches are up for the rest of Honduras and parts north of Punsal Gruesa in the Mexican Yucatan to Tulum.
As of 5AM Belize had no watches/warnings up, but that should change fairly soon.
Ernesto has about a 50/50 shot to briefly re-emerge over the Gulf in the very southern bay of Campeche, but trends suggest it may not make it that far.
Ernesto is clear of any South American land influence now and has a window to strengthen today.
11 PM EDT 5 August 2012:
Ernesto has not gained any strength today and has barely remained a Tropical Storm during the day, the general westerly motion has continued throughout the day, and only fairly recently has the forward motion slowed a bit. It appears will likely cross near Honduras, over Belize and through Mexico, it may or may not briefly reenter the Bay of Campeche before then. If it manages to make it north of Honduras it has the chance to strengthen some before landfall.
Florence continues moving westward, fairly weak and likely will weaken a bit more, it appears as it will stay away from land areas.
91L was officially deactivated this morning and much of the rainfall never materialized over Florida.
8 AM EDT 5 August 2012:
Ernesto as a system is struggling at the mid levels again, and has started to move very quickly westward again (22mph westward motion). This speed has forced Tropical Storm warnings to be issued for the north coast of Honduras.
itself can arguable called an open wave as recon just has not been able to find a large area of westerly winds at all.
With this observation from overnight, it appears the more westerly track has solidified and likely will affect Central America/Mexico in 2-3 days.
8 AM EDT 4 August 2012:
Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence this morning, Florence is expected to move generally westward and encounter hostile development conditions that may force it back into an open wave in a few days.
Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Jamaica for , which is forecast to move south of Jamaica, but may be close enough to cause Tropical Storm force winds on the Island. The forecast track was adjusted a bit southward, which may keep the storm moving generally westward all the way through the Caribbean. Latest recon reports still keep a weak Tropical Storm currently mainly due to mid level dry air.
In the long run, those in the Yucatan of Mexico, Honduras, and Belize will want to watch very closely.
91L has lost a lot of convection overnight, but likely will re-fire today, but it appears just to be a rain maker south and Central Florida and will not develop in the Atlantic.
11 PM EDT 3 August 2012:
90L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 6. Located 240 WSW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Previous Update:
Ernesto is now in the Eastern Caribbean, moving very rapidly westward, likely will continue on it's westward motion for a good while.
91L is now being track southeast of Florida. This was the wave mentioned early in the week, and now has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours as it brings enhanced rainfall to central and south Florida now through the weekend.
90L has a 50% chance for development in the far east Atlantic, odds favor this one staying out to sea.
In short, a busy weekend in the tropics.
East Florida Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
South to North:
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
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Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
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Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
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Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
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Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track
SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
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StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
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Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
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Latest Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?135]Belize radar recording[/url] ([http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?135]Alternate[/url])
Ernesto Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
92L Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Florence
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 09 2012 01:40 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Once you have looked over the links above. You might want to drift over to this page. All of the latest satellite data on all three of the Systems.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
Some of it is a bit over my head. But the graphics simplify it greatly.
Note: Based on the latest IR imagery of 90L just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system appears to be as developed as if not more. Nice and southern channel outflow. It's probably nearing TD stage if it isn't already a TD or weak Tropical Storm.
edit:Great minds think alike. See Mike's post below and the time stamp of this post and his. Scary!
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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90L in the east Atlantic is on the verge of become a depression, and may very well later tonight.
9!L, near Florida will be a big rainmaker this weekend for Florida. The National Weather Service Jacksonville has a slideshow on this.
Ernesto has held together today and has a good shot to maintain its storm status overnight and possibly wind up slightly stronger, it is still lacking good outflow that would be indicative of a strengthening system, however along with the still rapid westward motion. T numbers, do, in fact, show it stronger than earlier today.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Looking at the wv of all three systems,it appears all three are getting much better organized at this hour.91L seems to really be firing up off the north east coast of Cuba.Pretty amazing thing to see all three getting organized all at once.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Aug 03 2012 10:30 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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90L is Tropical Depression 6 as of 11pm.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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Tropical Depression Six is Tropical Storm as of 8:00 a.m.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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TD#6 became TS Florence. 
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Fairhopian
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
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Ernesto's starting to breathe - outflow expanding. Is this storm's forward speed the primary factor keeping the intensity forecast at Cat 1 all the way to and thru the Gulf? Would the environment in the Carib otherwise support further strengthening, if the storm slows to say 12 mph over the next day or two? Any reason to believe we'll see an eye before it reaches the Yucatan?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of it's really hard to tell right now.
I still see a tight clustering of the and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.
All of the other models and the Official Forecast take toward the Cozumel/ Cancun,MX area. With one exception, the AEMN still goes west toward southern Texas and then doglegs toward the Lake Charles,LA/ Houston,TX area.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
TropicalAtlantic.com Model page
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 04 2012 09:40 AM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Forecast wise I favor more westerly because of two factor issue, has gotten a lot of mid-level dry air injecting into it, which is probably why recon is having trouble finding any real winds, and the general motion of the storm (and the fact it has gained very little to no latitude yesterday) suggests the west/southern part of the cone is more likely. Not that it will happen, just more likely. 11AM will probably keep the storm as is or slightly weaker, but once the dry air goes away the run for possible hurricane status may begin.
I don't really thing /HRWF has an accurate representation of right now, so I'm leaning toward the other global models. Felix in 2007 was an example of a storm that bombed in the central/western Caribbean and then eventually still made landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, despite forecasts keeping it further north.
What to watch to see where the odds go is how much latitude the system does or does not gain, and how quickly/if it recovers from the thrashing it's getting in the mid levels right now;. If it follows the track today very closely, the chances for more northerly track (ala ) go up. If it remains to the south and remains weaker, the more west it will likely go (GFS/EURO), which brings in Belize and Honduras more into the equation. (See the cone) Right now odds slightly favor it going the west route.
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Fairhopian
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
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The 11 a.m. Discussion observes the anomaly of improved banding/outflow yet higher pressure/lower windspeed. Now, the latest WV sat frame shows a very symmetrical convective burst directly over the center. Does the dry air ingested at the mid level explain the anomaly? Does the convective burst at center expel the dry air at the mid level, and thereby allow the strengthening to resume? I know that we are not watching an EWR, because this is only a TS and we of course have no eye, but can a TS sometimes go thru a phase where the process of growing stronger actually makes it temporarily weaker, other than the outright reforming of the center at a new location?
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The overall look of the system on satellite vs recon reports is a bit troubling, I don't think the mid-level dry air did much other than make the heat engine sputter in the storm, the pattern above it is setting up potential for a fairly rapid intensification phase, especially as it moves into the extremely warm waters of the Northwest Caribbean.
The warmest Caribbean waters are roughly in a box with the western tip of Cuba in one corner and Jamaica in the other. is forecast to stay south of that, but the waters there are still quite warm (warmer than where it is now)
In short it's a pretty good bet becomes a hurricane tomorrow, and has an honest shot at becoming a Major in the western Caribbean Monday or Tuesday.
Note the latest recon fix is further north than the first forecast position from the 11AM EDT forecast.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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I am just as lost as many others including the which has no idea why the pressure is rather high 1005-1006mb and winds near 50mph?? The satellite has the presentation of a strong tropical storm at least and its overall structure has continued to greatly improve are we getting set to see a rapid period of intensification? It would appear so as it has the warm ocean ahead, low shear, and a well structured storm all which points that way, and agree with what Mike said with this having good shot at becoming major cane early next week possibly. I am not so sure about its future track dont want to go to in depth but the more latitude it gains over the next 36hrs the better chance the /HWRF maybe right. For now agree with track but chnges are sure to happen.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I am having a hard time with the W movement sustaining itself all the way into MX ATM and I guess it could Mike but the cloud structure looking more Northerly and further W almost like the high to the N is relaxing some.It might just be that an anti-cyclone is building overhead allowing the expansion(?).The ECMF has this storm dead in six hours definitly do not see that occurring to much heat in the water,nice structure and getting further from SA coastline every hour.I do not know maybe by tomorrow evening the developing story will start to shed a few more pages but it sure is remimding me of 's track same low movement across the Atlantic.
Edited by javlin (Sat Aug 04 2012 04:32 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Javlin, I'm seeing the same northward expansion of the higher clouds. The clouds on the western/ leading edge of the storm envelope appear to be stunted or sheared. Possibly due to the dry air ahead. I'm currently Not seeing any moistening of the area ahead of . That's just a tad strange.
Another note. has pulled in the skater's arms, so to speak. The satellite floater is indicating a dense area with rapid rotation, high vorticity. If you look real close you can see the clouds resemble a supercell thunderstorm. Or clay on a Potter's wheel.
I don't think this is a sign of a decaying storm. Even though RECON has found a pressure rise during the latest pass through the Center. is just coming out of Dmin. Or the diurnal minimum.
He is definitely a strange system!
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm going to nit pick the latest Vortex Message. My notes are in Bold
I don't question as they are the experts. but I don't see a wind near 60 mph, as the Advisory shows. I'm still looking at the data.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 00:32Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 0:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°06'N 71°49'W (15.1N 71.8167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (387 km) to the S (172°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,492m (4,895ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 44kts (From the SE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 114 nautical miles (131 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) pressure/ wind relationship should equal 68 mph. is below the pressure/ wind curve.
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,582m (5,190ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,563m (5,128ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)21C temp and 14C dew point is a 7 degree spread. Steady state storm.
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19kts (~ 21.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 0:29:00Z
Mission Number:05
Agency:Air Force
Time:08/05 01:05:00Z
Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure:1006.6mb (~29.72 inHg)
Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.):43kts (~49.4mph)
Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) SFC. Wind:45kts (~51.7mph)
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 04 2012 09:26 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Tropical Storm reminds me of Claudette in 2003 and Lili in 2002, both tropical storms in the Caribbean with impressive satellite appearances but lacking the surface vigor to match.
Lili discussions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/LILI.shtml
Lili satellite imagery: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/2002/
Claudette discussions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/CLAUDETTE.shtml
Vertical wind shear was the suspected limiting cause in those cases, whereas for the cause is less clear. The most recent discussion hypothesizes that dry air may be the culprit, but it is unknown whether that dry air has actually been able to infiltrate the inner core. Some of the available model guidance from last night (early AM Sat 8/4) suggests that it could have, but that guidance is 24 h old now.
Regardless of the cause, cases like and those that came before it highlight that satellite-based intensity estimation techniques such as the technique, while wonderful tools, are not always perfect. Cases like these that throw us a curve, keep researchers busy, and keep operational forecasters on their toes!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Irene at times did not correlate at the surface .... winds seemed weaker often at the surface despite satellite presentation...
Each storm is different.
Agreed, is weird in many ways.... a puzzle to figure out.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Clark,Welcome back!
I did see some evidence of dry air on the last dropsonde. Temperature and dewpoint spread was about 10 degrees F at 850mb, 5000 foot flight level.
If we could get a couple of higher dropsondes it might help out. But they would probably miss the meat of the Storm.
Level:850mb ,Geo. Height:1,486m (4,875 ft), Air Temp.:21.2°C (70.2°F) Dew Point:Approximately 15°C (59°F) Wind Direction:125° (from the SE) Wind Speed:4 knots (5 mph)
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archiv...&mission=05
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Fairhopian
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
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It would appear that the convection at 's core has suddenly waned, which I presume would be indicative of a weaker TS that is more susceptible to the timing of the diurnal minimum? (I'm still learning) However, at the same time there is new convection firing on the extreme periphery of 's NW and SW quadrants, which seems to show that the once dry environment in that area is now being moistened by the approaching storm, which I presume would be indicative of a stronger TS? Or maybe 's neck-breaking pace is just too fast for its convection to keep up with, so is leaving it behind and making some more up ahead. Personally, I think is strong but so fast that, for the moment, he's just too difficult to accurately measure. So we'll just have to wait until he slows down a bit, maybe south or southwest of Jamaica, before we can properly size him up. Maybe the somehow picks up on 's cloaked strength, and is pulling him North for that reason, and for reason of that ULL in the Western Gulf, as Daniel has reasoned in the Forecast Lounge.
Edited by Fairhopian (Sun Aug 05 2012 01:57 AM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Good to read discussion from Clark, indeed...
As for ... really a mystery that will be unraveled in post game analysis...
I do believe that interaction with South America, that I don't think has been mentioned here, may be a part of the problem. Other storms this low down have exhibited similar problems temporarily. Water temps there are lower than other areas of the Caribbean basin and all things being equal nothing much has changed in the last 12 hours to account for looking suddenly weaker. The weakening trend started as approached the La Guajira peninsula and his inflow became inhibited and storms need good outflow in all directions to maintain steady growth. Just my two cents or possibly two dollars Other storms that were low riders have had this problem. The dry air to it's west is no drier than it has been. Shear is about the same.
Worth mentioning is the ULL in the GOM that is showing up nicely on the WV loop.
Then again.... he seems to do this every night and every morning he looks better. Only morning light will tell whether this is another night time quiet period.
Also, as mentioned in my blog.... water temps there where is currently are cooler than they have been, a sort of cooler pool of water.
NRL imagery shows him hovering just north of the coast.
A few of the newest models this evening show him getting dangerously close to the Northern Gulf of Mexico. But, of course, we are going to stick with the west bound models...
The has been spot on with this storm so far...
Hopefully we will have more information tomorrow and more recon.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I kinda brought up the proximity to SA yesterday just not the the implications but I also thought it was not having as much it's usual effect.That UUL in the GOM is huge in effect and not moving much .I guess the dry air out front and what the SW corner of the system injested possibily from SA were the death-mise of the storm from the lower levels just did not remember seeing one before while doing so have such an enhance outflow.Now Mike I concede SA 
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The 's track for is good now, although I think it'll stay in the southern part of the cone, and I'm not sure it'll really get far enough north of Honduras to gain much strength. Still it should bring a good amount of rainfall to Belize and parts of Mexico, if it gets over the Bay of Campeche it'll have a brief chance to regain a bit of strength, but there is a fair chance it won't make it that far.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Recon has found an eyewall, a fully circular one and 6 nautical miles wide in this morning, after not finding much of anything yesterday. Based on this, I'd expect a special advisory fairly soon and Hurricane Watches and Warnings up for Honduras/Belize fairly soon.
This area of the Caribbean is known for rapid intensification of storms, and if has the eyewall as stated by the recon vortex message, intensification is already underway and is probably a hurricane now.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Recon vortex mesage for that just came out:
Found CLOSED WALL, circular 8 mile wide
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z with GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
994mb pressure down nearly 10mb since the 8AM advisory.
Safe to say is bombing.
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 53
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As soon as the easterly surface flow slowed down and allowed the convection to organize directly over the center... BOOM. It's amazing how fast this process can occur sometimes. It's a good thing this didn't occur a couple days ago. I can't wait to see what can do in the next 24 hours.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
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Recon appears to have measured the mid-level center (15.7N) which has certainly developed significantly this morning. Considering the eyewall development, a center adjustment a little to the north seems to be a sure thing. Although the pressure has fallen the stronger winds aloft have probably not yet made it down to the surface. I'd guess that will probably indicate a much stronger TS at 06/15Z rather than a jump directly to hurricane status.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Wouldn't the existence of a closed eye wall be indicative of, at least, a minimal hurricane? That's quite a significant development over the last few hours and that convective burst near the center is really impressive.
Intensity forecasting remains problematic while track/path forecasting has become very reliable over the past several years. With the slower forward progress, I'm wondering if the system is becoming more vertically stacked.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The structure of continues to improve and the storm continues to intensify. At 06/16Z, a visible eye is evident at 16.1N 80.7W moving to the west.
ED
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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There are 4 fixes for the latest recon which are all in a line pointing NW in direction. Does the center keep reforming to the north? It seems unlikely that it would reform 4 separate times. Could the extra strengthening be allowing it to feel the trough to the north and adding a more northerly component?
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Ernesto Vortex Message
000
URNT12 KNHC 061736
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/17:05:30Z
B. 16 deg 12 min N
080 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 39 kt
E. 135 deg 11 nm
F. 200 deg 41 kt
G. 134 deg 60 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 14 C / 1567 m
J. 21 C / 1467 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A OB 22
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
Edited by berrywr (Mon Aug 06 2012 02:39 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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I posted the wrong vortex message...Carlotta's no less...oops! is moving WNW and is slightly north by about 0.5 degrees latitude from the current projected track and it is apparent by all is finally organizing and the center is now directly under convection whereas overnight it impossible to find. is too far south to be impacted by the evolving upper level pattern over the United States with a deep vortex expected to set up shop over the Great Lakes region in a few days and unseasonably deep trough along the eastern half of the nation with upper ridges - one over the Intermountain region of the US and the other near Bermuda in its typical summer alignment. Mid level flow is from east to west; looking at shear analysis and upper level winds; upper (200 mb) high is centered over Southern Honduras and given its current location should be experience about 10 knots of wind from the WNW. One post made mention of the upper low over the SW GOM centered near 23N 94W...the has that low moving west with its inverted upper trough and decoupling from the Eastern US long wave trough and an upper ridge being near the Yucatan as approaches that region. Satellite presentation is much improved from earlier today.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 53
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Obviously 's structure is much improved today, but it appears it is still fighting some dry air entrained into its core. First thing this morning there was a nice convective blowup over the center, which quickly caused a small eye to form and the pressure to drop to 994 mb, but since then the storm has struggled to maintain deep core convection and the pressure has crept back up a bit.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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The answer to your question is yes and no and all the shades of gray in between; an eyewall and an eye are not one and the same. In the developmental stages of a system becoming a hurricane the answer is generally, yes! In the weakening stages, it's sky's the limit. It appears today that hurricanes come in all sizes, shapes, structure and thermal profiles and has increased our understanding that typically defy a true "classical" definition, but to answer your question specifically, in , yes. If he isn't a hurricane on the next advisory, he is about to graduate.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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I took a look at the water vapor imagery and you're probably right, I can find nothing to discount what you're asking; is a system operating in less than perfect conditions; the winds aloft earlier were about 15 knots from the NW over the top of the system but current location suggests about 10 knots; was also moving at well over 17 to 20 knots up until today when he finally slowed as he approaches a weakening in the upper ridges and the upper low over the SW GOM. SSTs are not jumping through the roof either but I think a combination of many factors has contributed to 's becoming better organized and I do expect it to be a hurricane sometime today or later today.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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The movement the last couple of hours seems to be more northwesterly. I expect the path to be on the right side of the last cone.
It is getting very frisky and the weather along SW Florida is being affected as the surface trough associated with 91L remnant has been energized a bit...interesting.
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doug
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Apparently buoy 42057 took some kind of hit during the last two hours. Buoy located at 17.0N/ 81.5W
Or... it's in the Storm Center. No wind data is currently being displayed.
The buoy was located 46nm from 's Center at a 049 degree or NE heading. That places it in the NE Quadrant.
And the latest pressure is 1004.8 mb. Pressure appears to be right on for the graph below and the wind. Outer edge of the center must have passe over / near the buoy.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=4
RECON is inbound from Keesler and has crossed into the NW Caribbean Sea. Flight level of 26,000 feet and the storm circulation is evident in the data AT the entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Winds change from SW to ENE at the Channel entrance. Large storm envelope. Storm circulation extends more than 400 miles from the Center at 26,000 feet.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 06 2012 08:55 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Added Belize radar recording (Alternate)
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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A mere technicality....
A Mexico Landfall will be North America....
Been waiting since Friday?
The Models are/have been rolling over into Southern Mexico
and everytime it 'stair steps' to the North the Models just pull up to the new location
and roll over from that Location.
At some point now, and I've got near 300 degrees direction now,
Any interaction with land or 'skipping' as I call it, or just maintenance of the North of WnW
would move 's landfall 40-50 miles maybe to the North.
And that would be all it took.
What I'm sayin' is that could be close to a Non Linear flip into the North Yucatan.
Now that I've taken that position should now go and do the opposite. 
http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2012/storm5/plot20120804-0844.gif
http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2012/storm5/plot20120804-1444.gif
http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2012/storm5/plot20120807-0322.gif
RL3AO Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:22 am Location: Red Wing, Minnesota
Fun fact - Last major hurricane in the Caribbean in August was Gustav in 2008. Last major hurricane in Caribbean in September was Felix in 2007.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 07 2012 05:49 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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The NWS calls it Nowcasting...or short term forecasting. In the old days it was sometimes called persistence as it was for the Air Force and Navy. As for the models...to this day these models use what are called super-computers...with incredible speed and power to crunch the data that is fed into them; we use many models with different variables...and generally the newest model; the performs brilliantly in the tropics as does the slightly older ...but from time to time they make add-on adjustments, add new parameters to make the models perform better; this year the has been performing better than the because the latter was tweaked to take into account l moisture...I grant you the tropics aren't dry but in the tropics...the SAL as we call it - the Saharan (Desert in Africa) Air Layer plays a big, big role in whether tropical systems are able to develop or infringe upon their development and even suppress convection if they are traversing where it is. As a rule it is always, always easier to forecast in the now...but forecasting is in the future...forecasters use both what its doing right now and where it is likely to be with increasing error as you look further into the future...the models aren't being asked to predict an exact landfall but over the years what began as 1 day has become 3 days and today the models are darn good at predicting "general" things out 5 days and occasionally 7, but for the website we use the Forecast Lounge to speculate beyond the 5 day range. Over on our Facebook page, I may from time to time talk about the weather pattern in the long range...anything past 5 days and add like for example yesterday the evolving pattern over the United States. is too removed and to the south to be tugged northward and had it been any farther north, it may have been pulled well into the GOM and be a threat. What happens on the big stage does in fact effect what goes on in regards to future track of tropical systems. The other factor with is it is not a well developed system despite from time to time having an excellent "satellite" presentation; it simply hasn't been deep or vertical enough to feel the pattern in the upper levels...that too is important in regards to track. One of our moderators here on the website made mention of the Tropical Easterlies having decoupled the storm on more than one occasion; in the tropics there is a "jetstream" like wind that moves not from west to east as it does in the mid-latitudes but east to west. I hope this helps; take care!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 53
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We now have Hurricane . Clearly, the satellite presentation continues to improve by the hour and now recon has confirmed another 5 mb pressure drop and a jump in surface wind to 75 or 80 mph. It also appears to be slightly north of the official forecast track, not that that will make much of a difference in the big picture. It doesn't have a ton of time left, but there is certainly room for some further strengthening before tonight's landfall.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
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The further north for a landfall the more time can spend in the BOC/GOM.
The SST is pretty warm so it would not surprise me to see category 2 making landfall this evening.
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________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Added webcam recording from Cozumel
Webcam recording, Cozumel El Cid resorts. (Alternate)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Both satellite imagery and the Belize radar loop show the eye making a jog/wobble to the west southwest toward Chetumal, Mexico. Forward speed has increased a little and it looks like landfall is going to be this evening around 11PM CDT.
ED
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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If I'm reading the satellite correctly, appears to have taken a jog to the southwest this morning. If that's the case, that'll leave him over land for a longer period of time before reappearing over the water, hampering the time he has to get back up to hurricane strength.
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Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest METAR from the City of Carmen on the Southern Coast of the Bay of Campeche.
METAR text: MMCE 082250Z 35035G45KT 2SM RA OVC010 25/25 A2945 RMK 8/7// VRB COND
Conditions at: MMCE (CIUDAD DEL CARMEN , MX) observed 2250 UTC 08 August 2012 ( 20 minutes old)
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.45 inches Hg (997.4 mb)
Winds: from the N (350 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
gusting to 52 MPH (45 knots; 23.4 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: RA (rain)
Note: This report is the 9th consecutive hour of winds above 34 mph. And the 4th consecutive hour of winds above 40 mph.~danielw
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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An area of disturbed weather moving into the SE Bahamas. Appears to be associated with a tropical wave.
Zoomed on area:
Images Courtesy of CIMSS
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 09 2012 04:13 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 963
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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TD #7 has been declared in the mid-Atlantic. Long range track by keeps westward movement, bringing it south of Cuba.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Yesterday's index is in nearly the same exact position as it was prior to the June Atlantic tropical outbreak.
The current systems could have a better chance at further developing into Tropical Storms or Hurricanes. Based on prior experience with the .
Hurricane Chris began on June 19th. Just 5 days after the moved into the Western Hemisphere.
Tropical Storm Debby began on June 23rd. Just after the peaked in Sector 8 and crossed into Sector 1.
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html
Coincidence. Possibly. Stranger things have happened.
Keep an eye or two on the Atlantic. Including the system near the Bahamas and the remnants of Florence to the NE of Puerto Rico.
Don't let your guard down just because it's the weekend
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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There will be quite a few systems but none of them are likely to reach the United States with the evolving upper air pattern over the United States and in the Atlantic Ocean; any system that does develop has to be suppressed south to have a shot; the only viable system is TD7 which will be south enough to have a shot at being pulled poleward once it reaches the Western Caribbean. The well-advertised African wave and it's progress will be discussed in the Forecast Lounge; it is a solid two weeks away at this time from affecting the US. We will talk future track over in the Forecast Lounge and on our Facebook page; tracks beyond day 5 have large errors.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
Edited by berrywr (Fri Aug 10 2012 12:10 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Note that the Current Storm tracking map for TD7 (on the left) does not yet reflect the current track for TD7 which will be moving westward for quite a few days.
ED
ADDED: Correct map is now posted.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 09 2012 10:54 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well so much for the and it's forecasting ability. Tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is the only game in town right now.
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