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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Hurricane Isaac Forecast Lounge
      #93210 - Fri Aug 17 2012 02:38 AM

A new Invest has just been tagged for the large tropical wave in the extreme eastern Atlantic.

Invest 94L, large, broad and elongated, is presently located roughly in the vicinity of 11N 20W at 2:30 AM EDT Aug 17. Pressure is estimated to be 1010mb, with maximum sustained winds of about 25 MPH. Movement is currently to the west at 15-20 MPH.

This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Model support on Invest 94L so far is pretty strong, with several of the better models whipping up a strong tropical cyclone out of it in the central Atlantic by the middle of next week. As early model runs often tend to be the least reliable, it remains to be seen if they verify, but right now there does not appear to be much working against 94L over the next 4-7 days.

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 28 2012 04:42 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93215 - Fri Aug 17 2012 12:56 PM

As noted above some of the models are aggressive in developing Invest 94L - most notably the DSHIP and GFS and to a lesser extent the ECMWF - with a significant system in the central Atlantic in about five days. I've noted that each succeeding run of the GFS moves the system a little more westward before the eventual turn to the north through a developing weakness in the Atlantic ridge.
ED


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93220 - Sat Aug 18 2012 11:53 AM

Looking at some of the models, this is starting to look like a possible East Coast threat. They are showing 2 systems developing out of the broad monsoon trough. I'm not sure I buy that and it would suggest a recurve. If only 1 system that makes me think a more westward track longer with a possible threat to the islands in 5 days...have to see how this plays out in the next couple of days. The models, however, have been trending west

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93221 - Sat Aug 18 2012 12:55 PM

Those who continue to access this site for sound & reasonable information need heed the future development of 94L. All those from the Greater Antilles, especially the Leewards and Puerto Rico, need to really heed 94L - evenutally to become Hurricane Isaac. Not only am I confident that Isaac will prove to be one of the "highlights" of the 2012 Atlantic Season, but anticipate a very significant threat from Florida to North Carolina, if Isaac impacts or moves just north of Puerto Rico. On the other hand, if Isaac remain further south I would be very concerned about a major impact to points along the N. Gulf Coast region. Folks, this large envelope system should not have any of the recent "dry air intrusion issues" and this appearant large system should be able to draw on a larger scale inflow of rich moisture from its south. Westerly upper level wind shear should not be a factor, other than a possible near term displacement of a COC simply caused by its own faster westward motion. Upper level conditions should not likely inhibit Isaac from eventually attaining "major hurricane status. While no set of circumstances are set in stone, I see it as very unlikely that this system will simply move well north of the Islands.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 19 2012 11:47 PM)


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Mozart
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #93222 - Sat Aug 18 2012 03:45 PM

Interesting difference in the models between the NGP and GFS if I'm reading this right. (I'm an amateur at best.) The NGP has 94L starting a recurve to the north before it gets too far west. The GFS has it in the Caribbean in 5 days and appears to be on a path for the Gulf of Mexico.

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Mozart]
      #93223 - Sat Aug 18 2012 05:35 PM

GFS has the better track record ( no pun intended)...it is one of the most highly regarded model composites

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93225 - Sat Aug 18 2012 06:10 PM

Statistically, storms forming that far East usually re-curve well before they reach the Caribbean. If 94L were to remain an open wave (which it doesn't appear to be doing) and became a tropical cyclone closer to 15ºN; 45 - 50ºW, then I'd be more concerned about a Caribbean/GoM event.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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Mozart
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93233 - Sun Aug 19 2012 01:08 PM

Big change in the models today from yesterday. Long term GFS has 94L going over Jamaica and GFDL has it heading into the Bahamas. Neither one seems to develop it very much though. Hoping it doesn't develop too much and cause havoc in the Caribbean.

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Mozart]
      #93236 - Sun Aug 19 2012 03:40 PM

The 2p models are coming in even farther south...and the SHIPS intensity forecast still predicts a 108kt hurricane in 120hrs. Thats a long way out, but the models have not been so aggressive strenthening systems thus far this season...so cation is advised with this system.
Another point to make though...I am seeing some rotation in the system out front of 94L which was forecast by some of the global models previously approx 11n 47w (again approx). If this tries to develope it could put a wrench into the forecast...it also shows conditions improving ahead for 94L

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Aug 19 2012 03:45 PM)


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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93237 - Sun Aug 19 2012 05:37 PM

94L looking a little better organized from a circulation stand point and banding features becoming more evident. However deep convection is lacking based on satellite and water vapor shows plenty of dry air to the north and west of 94l and is helping to keep it in check. However Dvorak numbers are 1.5 from both TAFB and SAB which is up from this mornings numbers 1.0. Would not be surprised to see this as depression later tonight or early tomorrow morning. A steady Westerly movement into the northwest Caribbean looks good for now and beyond that plenty to discuss with ridge hold strong enough to north and keep it moving West/WNW or will there be a turn northwest. I like the GFS up to this point.

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Buckeye
Registered User


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Mozart]
      #93238 - Sun Aug 19 2012 06:15 PM

Quote:

Big change in the models today from yesterday. Long term GFS has 94L going over Jamaica and GFDL has it heading into the Bahamas. Neither one seems to develop it very much though. Hoping it doesn't develop too much and cause havoc in the Caribbean.





After watching the many different model histories over the years, I am convinced that the people at GFDL have it in for Florida for some reason. If you have tracked the models for any significant storm over the past 10-15 years, you will have to agree that GFDL consistently, and inexplicably, tracks every time towards Florida. I say inexplicably, because frequently, if not the vast majority of the time, GFDL's track model is noticeably different from most, if not all, of the other model forecast tracks. I have since wondered what the people in Princeton have against us down here in Florida.

Edited to include referenced quote for context.


Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 19 2012 07:18 PM)


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Urbanoia
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Buckeye]
      #93241 - Mon Aug 20 2012 09:16 AM

possibly hyper-active algorithms for the effects of the Gulf Stream? It could explain the models turning north in long range forecasts if the storms get north of the Leewards. I know the surf has been pushing moderate to hard in Cocoa Beach from the SE all summer, more than I remember in past years. Though a warming planet should ease the stream, I haven't seen it yet here. And our thermocline hit the surf more or less on target this weekend for the first time all summer, crabs standing around on the beach at noon is usually a pretty good sign the water just got frigid. Just in time for a small bit of cold water moderation as the long-range GFS turn of 94L turns towards us (again!) and another unneeded gassing of the RV for escape. Been since 2006 when we got hit three times in three weeks and my insurance is still going up and the batteries are still dead in the RV. But I wouldn't live anywhere else, especially in NJ.

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93242 - Mon Aug 20 2012 09:48 AM Attachment (556 downloads)

The GFS model certainly has been acid tested over the years. Today they have 94 coming over the glades and right up and over lake Okeechobe. It's already been proven several years ago when a week hurricane picked up steam crossing over this HUGE, HOT, body of water.

My guess is that next week, there will be a lot of knashing about what Helene will do. ... Thanks for the correction.
(Actually it was Frances that came ashore near Stuart.)

Edited by Beach (Mon Aug 20 2012 02:25 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Beach]
      #93243 - Mon Aug 20 2012 11:39 AM

The models have run several scenarios... many ignored like the out to sea forecasts which are pretty much out to sea. Had Isaac formed and been strong... he might have taken that track up the Atlantic... but the "good news" of Isaac not being Isaac may be "BAD NEWS" down the road as he gets further west every 12 hours and the models respond in each new run and he now becomes your classic CV storm where he "can" go up over the islands towards Florida and the GOM or the East Coast of the US ...OR........he can go through the islands, stay south of a tango with Haiti and come up under Cuba and aim towards either Tampa or Miami and the rest of the East Coast of Florida.

So... this concept of him looking bad is good news should be thrown out a window as weak and steady as he moves towards warmer water with what seems good bone structure that would favor big, giant bands circling around a developed center is BAD NEWS actually.... not bad as in "hype" its just bad as in reality bites.

You have to look LONG TERM at a LONG TRACKER. Early strong storms curve WNW and NW. Early strong storms catch the ULL or a doorway away from a landfall... slow, steady storms like this one keep getting further west, further south and the BIG difference between this one and the last few is.......FALL has set in early. Fronts are now moving south... there is a bit less dust, warmer water... a frontal boundary that pushed through FL/GA and then backs up and becomes a stationary front could be more of a problem. Just a different set of factors with this storm (and the ones behind it) than what happened to Ernesto/Hector.

So... keep watching. But, yeah.... I keep seeing variations on Cleo and Donna and that would imply Cuba gets this before Florida...if Florida gets it. (How much do we trust the GFS this far out???) But that ole Seminole Wind may blow real strong if Isaac forms and follows the GFS.

And, if Cuba gets it vs Haiti... there is less of a chance of it falling apart and of course it depends if Cuba gets it where it crosses Cuba... up over the islands would imply a much stronger storm but the GFS is not showing that scenario this morning...

Keep watching...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93245 - Mon Aug 20 2012 12:19 PM

Very good post Lois,I agree.This one has my attention.I do not believe this one will be a fish spinner,and the conditions out in front of the system are conducive for slow development.If it does affect the U.S. (And I believe it will) We are looking at about a week.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93248 - Mon Aug 20 2012 03:42 PM

Today's 12Z EMCWF (Euro) model run puts a storm from 94L through South Florida, up the east coast and then west across Florida, Tues-Thursday (28-30th) of next week.

These model runs are a bit too far out/too weak to believe right now, but if the trends hold out it will be something those in the Gulf and Florida will want to watch into next week.


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CoconutCandy
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93253 - Mon Aug 20 2012 06:30 PM

The large, sprawling Tropical Disturbance we've all been following these past few days now appears much better organized and is quickly consolidating into a Tropical Depression.

Although certainly large and impressive looking (for a disturbance), 94L hasn't been particularly organized quite yet, nor has the convection been especially deep, being seemingly confined, thus far, to a linear banding feature stretching in an east / west line south of what appears to have been several competing low level circulation centers.

Well, all that has certainly changed today, with the disturbance taking on a much more symmetrical appearance, and a dramatic increase in convective organization, especially in the SE quadrant, as clearly portrayed in this animated visible satellite imagery.



You can easily see the massive flare-up of thunderstorms in the SE quadrant, as well as a general increase in shower bands forming in all quadrants, with thunderstorms also beginning to pop in curved cumulus streets in the NW quadrant.

Also of note in this animated imagery is a pretty decent outflow channel developing in the southern semicircle, quickly whisking away the cirrus debris from the underlying convection and shunting it off to the SW.

Interestingly, deep convection near and over the tight spiral of the currently exposed low level circulation have been paltry, at best, with only a few, transient, moderate storms intermittently flaring up.

But especially apparent is the Overall Increase in Organization of the Disturbance and the Rapidly Developing Symmetry of the system in general, as shown from the beginning of the loop to it's last frame, late in the day (local time), which also accentuates the blowup of thunderstorms to the SE, and their sharply increasing curvature during the time frame depicted.

All in all, I'd have to say that, after loosely languishing for a few days, 94L is quickly "getting it's act together", and is looking more and more impressive by the hour.

And, now that the nascent cyclone is entering the overnight convective maximum cycle, when thunderstorms usually attain their greatest proportions and coldest cloud tops, I'd expect to see a massive flare-up of "bursting" convection, with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees and colder, building closer and closer to the LLCC.

And when THAT happens, it imparts a MASSIVE quantity of energy to the developing cyclone, as enormous amounts of heat is released into the atmosphere (the release of latent heat of condensation), which, in turn, causes the gradual development of a true warm core, lowering surface pressures, stiffening the low level winds by several notches, causing even more surrounding warm air of very high CAPE (convective available potential energy) to continue to spiral in towards the center, initiating a positive feedback mechanism that continually escalates the entire process, and Viola !! Cyclogenesis.

Like many of you, I've got 'a feeling in my bones' that this just might be a storm we'll all remember for some time to come. Time will tell, but with each model run, and the track shifting progressively further west before a turn to the north, this looks to be a storm the US needs to very much keep appraised of.

One last thing: I find the name "Isaac" to be very telling. Can anyone guess WHY ?? (Hint: Something that happened well over a century ago.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:47 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #93254 - Mon Aug 20 2012 07:25 PM

Galveston does not appreciate your sense of humor. Yeah Isaac could be some storm once it develops. Should hit warmer water soon.

The dust is really doing a job on it...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

If it stays low intensity wise... I don't see the northerly tracks really working out.

Another issue I have is that the GFS only really intensifies the storm as it is hitting Cuba and traversing Cuba, which doesn't seem logical. I don't believe Cuba would hurt a storm that much as I blogged earlier today...but what I don't think is logical is that it intensifies over land.

A missing piece of the puzzle.

I do think it's pretty clear fronts are moving down and will begin tugging storms away from the Yucatan or bust scenario of the previous storms.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:48 PM)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93255 - Mon Aug 20 2012 07:44 PM

Looks to me like it is going to win the fight with the dry air,in the last frame or two it seems there is less dry air (dust) in front of it.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:49 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93256 - Mon Aug 20 2012 07:59 PM

NHC has upped 94L to 90% chance in the next 48 hours.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:50 PM)


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