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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93592 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:51 AM

the 12Z early runs are still moving it west down the road even more.Soon they will have to either adjust it or the storm start going more NW i think by tonight we should have a good idea if it is going to keep to the path or now.

I think the storm will go a little more east then is predicted at first but then i see it take the route the models show but i do think it will be stronger then what they claim it will be.i think 100mph is easy


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93593 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:52 AM

Isaac just rolled around the 'cape' of Cuba.

Just Fing amazing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rgb-long.html

To recap.

Isaac has crossed Martinique and the 'arm' of Haiti.

Then the Keys.

Then nothing but GOM til the Mainland.

The track the 'Ensemble' put together last Wednesday,
you'd have to say that's the Minimum amount of land crossing
possible.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93594 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:57 AM

I don't think it rolled around the NE corner of Cuba. I have it pegged at 19.9N 74.3W at 10:50 EDT.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93595 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:57 AM

While the effect of the trough to the NW on the system has been taken into account somewhat, I also see signs that a mid-upper level vortex at the southern base of this trough (south of Cuba) is beginning to register a signature on the WV. I have thought all morning that the trough had a cyclonic spin independent of the circulation of Isaac to explain it. If there is a developing upper level cyclonic feature, that will possibly affect the direction and the development of Isaac. There is certainly a sheared western segment with Isaac and maybe this is why?

--------------------
doug


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93596 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:13 AM

Wow. Incredible dry the LLC just became on the WV Loop as of 11:13 EDT.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93598 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:16 AM Attachment (508 downloads)

I see what you're saying, Doug. I think the 500-850 mb steering layer graphic from the CIMSS site shows what you're talking about (see attached graphic).

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #93599 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:53 AM

The trough to the NW has a nice outflow itself right now.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93600 - Sat Aug 25 2012 12:19 PM

I'm looking at the upper air charts and will comment shortly...looking at visible satellite; Issac is moving towards the NNW at present and will move back over open water very, very soon. The mass of convection and rain closer to FL and moving west is not indicative of a separate tropical system; the winds aloft are hostile..30 to 40 knots in response to a deep longwave trough that while is lifting out is quite pronounced above 500 millibars shows up quite well on water vapor imagery with very dry air to the overall circulation's NW.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: berrywr]
      #93602 - Sat Aug 25 2012 12:49 PM

Good afternoon...We're going to begin with current satellite trends. Tropical Storm Issac as of 25/1600Z is moving NNW and is right along the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and about to exit back into open water. On water vapor imagery a good bit of the circulation surrounding the center remains somewhat dry. The big area of convection that is over FL and the surrounding waters is part of the broader circulation of Issac but winds aloft are in excess of 40 knots and are in response to a COL that is between both upper ridges, the long wave trough to the north and the inverted trough associated with Issac to the south; however, winds above 500 millibars are quite strong from the S and SW in response a full latitude longwave trough along the Eastern United States that extends well into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a 200/300 millibar upper high directly over Issac with excellent outflow. The remnants of Joyce are caught up in the Central Atlantic TUTT that extends along and near 52W longtitude to the equator. At 500 millibars there are 588 dm upper highs centered over the central coast of LA with a very narrow ridge axis extending ESE to a 588 upper high over central FL and extending ENE to the Bermuda upper ridge in the AO. The full latitude longwave trough is positive tilted to Jacksonville, FL with a very small upper low which was over SC two days ago, NC yesterday is now centered over VA. The trough inverts from Jacksonville southward to Issac. It should be noted the area that is inverted is elongated from NW to SE which is contributing to convection ongoing near FL at this time. Height falls remain generally neutral but there are slight rises along the Eastern United States east of the trough which are indicative of the trough lifting out and the Bermuda ridge slowly strengthening over the area; it is this that forecasters expect Issac to nudge itself slowly left of current track along with the narrow ridge that is in place west to east across the region N of Issac's track. We think of COLs as an area of weak steering currents but they too are simply like an intersection where multiple players meet as is the case here...Though the track cannot be precise it is clear what it is and where it will go in the broader sense; it becomes a question of what upper ridge at any given time will be the strongest. Another player in this is the shortwave in the middle of the US that is progressing east and will be what turns Issac north in a few days. This system will be welcomed in a good chunk of the country that is in need of making up rainfall deficits; others like N FL and SE GA won't welcome it. I cannot predict whether Issac is to become a major hurricane; there is no evidence to suggest today it will be but the water is hot and the upper air appears favorable for strengthening assuming the trough over the GOM in the upper levels gets out of the way.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: berrywr]
      #93604 - Sat Aug 25 2012 01:33 PM

Excellent discussion. Saves me from having to look at the charts.

Now if we/ they can only figure out where Issac will landfall and what Category he might be. But that's down the road.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: danielw]
      #93606 - Sat Aug 25 2012 01:56 PM

12z GFS has moved more west again i just do not see what the models see but time will tell but it has moved more west

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marydietch
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: danielw]
      #93608 - Sat Aug 25 2012 02:33 PM

I have never posted here before but I read your discussions often. I do not know a lot about meteorology to feel confident to make my own predictions for Issac, however I do have a question. I remember as a kid going through tropical storm Marco (I am in the bradenton/sarasota area). Is it possible with the current high pressure systems and everything else going on out there that Issac may make a similar track as Marco? The current track it's on, hugging the northern coast of Cuba reminds me of Marco. Marco made more of a west movement over Cuba at first where Issac is moving more NW if not NNW (at least to me). Just my thoughts..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marco_1990_track.png


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: marydietch]
      #93610 - Sat Aug 25 2012 02:51 PM

The Marco track is certainly possible.
Anything from a Georges 1998 track back east ward to the Marco track is the area that the models are basically in right now.
Update: New Early BAM suite is suggesting an 89.6W Katrina type track. So anyone in SE Louisiana eastward to the Atlantic Ocean is fair game

If you are in a Watch/ Warning area, and it now appears that Issac may become a Category 2 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or GOM.
Please make sure that you have the necessary items to go thru at least 72 hours without power and or water.

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 25 2012 03:38 PM)


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Brittany
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #93612 - Sat Aug 25 2012 03:36 PM

Quote:

the 12Z early runs are still moving it west down the road even more.Soon they will have to either adjust it or the storm start going more NW i think by tonight we should have a good idea if it is going to keep to the path or now.

I think the storm will go a little more east then is predicted at first but then i see it take the route the models show but i do think it will be stronger then what they claim it will be.i think 100mph is easy





would someone please explain what has happened with the GFS and the EURO switching. one going more east while the GFS going further west. I live here in Louisiana and out local meteorologists have not said much about a possible landfall in La. I would also like for someone to explain to me why the GFS is trending westward. I think it has something to do w/ a ridge, but I do not urnderstand. Wouldn't TS Isaac get stronger if the trend starts moving westward which would allow more travel time over the GOM. Thanks in advance for any input.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Brittany]
      #93613 - Sat Aug 25 2012 03:46 PM

the early 18Z runs are coming in and the track is now even more west not sure if i buy it but the trend in model runs again is more west with the focal point now average in Alabama only 1 of the many early models has Florida in the track and that is clip 5 all the other early cycle runs have trended another 50-100 miles west

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Brittany]
      #93614 - Sat Aug 25 2012 03:48 PM

You have the right idea. IF Issac does stay over the Gulf longer he Could get stronger.
But that's not written in stone. The Gulf of Mexico temperatures are more than warm enough to help strengthen Issac. But the upper air currents are playing havoc with Issac and it's almost down to a flip of a Quarter dollar to see where Issac is going.

If you can watch the Weather Channel they are right at 24/ 7 on Issac coverage.
On the old AM radio WWL-AM 870 on the dial
http://www.wwltv.com/


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93615 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:04 PM

Is Isaac now an open wave? Let's not kid ourselves. It may be. However, intensification is certainly a very good possibility. Just wondering for those of you viewing satellite imagery, is this now an open wave?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93616 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:07 PM

I see no indication of it being an open wave. I do see the northern vorticity heading sharply NNW at the moment, however.

EDIT: It was a wobble to the NNW. Continuing to head between WNW and NW not too far from the coast. Does appear to finally be generating some convection near the northern center again, though.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Sat Aug 25 2012 04:09 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93618 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:13 PM

Yes. I see that now. Not an open wave. Visible satellite indicates a closed LLC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93619 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:24 PM

Visible indicates increased convection around the LLC. Isaac may hug the coast for a while and be stronger or weaker depending on if the LLC is or is not over water or land.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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