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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93620 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:39 PM

As a follow up to Typhoon_tip's post in the main forum: Isaac is so not concentrated. How big of a threat are the spin ups in east central Florida as we move through the period. IMHO, the less concentrated the core becomes, the more the east cot of FL should be diligent. Just a question.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93621 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:47 PM

Almost looks like the trough to the north is pushing the dry air out of the way and moistening the air in front of Isaac. Also appears the center is begining to emerge off the coast of Cuba. Crunch time coming soon.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93622 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:49 PM

Convection increasing just to the NE of the LLC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #93623 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:53 PM

Maybe i am wrong but the 18Z model runs have came out ALL to the west way more yet the NHC has it at 998 MLB 60mph and the same exact track no shift at all in the track.

5PM EVERY MODEL run i have seen at 18Z is west of the current NHC track i hope they give reason in there disc cause i thought for sure they would move it more west but 998 MLB and 60mph winds moving NW AT 20

Now weather underground has the track shifted with the Florida west coast on the edge of the cone

at least in there discussion they made this clear...

Based on this expectation...
the forecast track shows Isaac moving northwestward for 12 hr or
so...followed by a turn toward the west-northwest. It is possible
the storm could make a sharper turn than forecast...as the UKMET is
showing an almost due west motion between the Florida Keys and Cuba
near the 36 hr point. The early part of the forecast track is
shifted a little to the left of the previous forecast...but still
lies to the right of the consensus models and the bulk of the
dynamical models.

So they are saying they are to the right of all the models which is good cause it keeps them in the clear if it nudges right along the west coast.


Edited by ralphfl (Sat Aug 25 2012 05:18 PM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93626 - Sat Aug 25 2012 06:01 PM

18z GFS is in and it is basically the same as 12Z with it moving WNW/NW towards mouth of the Mississippi River area. It interesting to note that GFS looks to be starting off a bit to far inland on its start up with actual center offshore? Overall I think it is slowly getting reorganized with GFS now on far left of guidance and 12Z Euro more east, complete flip flop.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93627 - Sat Aug 25 2012 06:02 PM

AVN Loop shows a good picture of where the LLC is at. As of 18:02 EDT

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: danielw]
      #93628 - Sat Aug 25 2012 06:02 PM

18Z Late cycles:

GFS, over Key West tomorrow Afternoon, then landfall New Orleans Wednesday afternoon (the west shift)

18Z GFDL, Middle keys tomorrow afternoon/evening. Wednesday morning, Bay St. Louis, MS.

.Other models will come out later, but the trend this afternoon has been to the west.





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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc:
An Amateur Observation [Re: MikeC]
      #93636 - Sat Aug 25 2012 07:34 PM

Disclaimer: I have no clue, other than being run over by about a half dozen of these things and a few years of watching those WV loops and listening to you guys,...

...But I'd bet the ranch they are underestimating the intensity. Last couple frames of the WV sure look more impressive to me, tightening up, and pick a spot and it gets more intense.

A hech of a lot of kinetic energy and angular momemtum if the skater can bring his arms in.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: MikeC]
      #93639 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:20 PM

Looks to me that the models are trending west as the storm weakens (again). Doesn't that mean that if the storm strengthens, the models will trend back east? Seems to be the pattern with this storm. I am NOT letting my guard down with this storm!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: MikeC]
      #93640 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:21 PM

Isaac will be retired if it gets anywhere near Deepwater Horizon.
Isaac looks like it stretches from:

Isla de la Juventud to Key Largo to San Juan.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Sat Aug 25 2012 08:26 PM)


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Stall over SE Louisiana? [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #93642 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:37 PM

I noticed both the 12Z and 18Z GFS have Isaac slowing and practically stalling out for something like 30+ hours as he makes landfall near the LA-MS border.

I understand the significant limitations of forecast models 72 hours out in terms of both track and intensity, but I was just wondering what those of you with more expertise thought about this motion (or lack thereof) towards the end of the run?

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: danielw]
      #93643 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:44 PM

[quote="DanielW"]Excellent discussion. Saves me from having to look at the charts.

Now if we/ they can only figure out where Issac will landfall and what Category he might be. But that's down the road.




Re BerryWR Discussion, I second that.

As to unwanted rain, at least the Georgia/N FL Drought is
over.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Issac - 25/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #93644 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:53 PM

Well there is quite a shift west in some of the 0z guidance coming in with clustering in the LA to AL areas. Will see if 0z globals are holding true to this later as they will have new upper air data put into them from the high altitude mission being conducted as we speak. Do not let your guard down in FL from Panhandle to south FL.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Brittany]
      #93645 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:54 PM

Quote:



Brittany:

would someone please explain what has happened with the GFS and the EURO switching. one going more east while the GFS going further west. I live here in Louisiana and out local meteorologists have not said much about a possible landfall in La. I would also like for someone to explain to me why the GFS is trending westward. I think it has something to do w/ a ridge, but I do not urnderstand. Wouldn't TS Isaac get stronger if the trend starts moving westward which would allow more travel time over the GOM. Thanks in advance for any input.




SWAG:

EURO has had Isaac missing most of Cuba to the South.
And crossing it's 'narrows' when it did.

The GFS was riding Cuba's spine.

The EURO hasn't figured Isaac to have missed Cuba to the N.

The GFS has.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93646 - Sat Aug 25 2012 09:03 PM

Looks like Isaac is attempting to take advantage of the the diurnal max right now. Impressive flare up of thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the core of Isaac as it heads slightly more northerly. Still wouldn't be shocked if it crossed the middle keys and ended up near Florida Bay before getting out to the Gulf.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93657 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:57 PM

With the latest advisory, I am once again in the landfall area. Been awhile since we had a storm of anywhere near hurricane intensity. Biggest difference for me, is last time (Dennis), I was on Active Duty in the Florida Air National Guard. This time, I am Retired Military. Some gas stations in the area are already running low on the lower grades of gas and some have only high test.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Trekman]
      #93658 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:04 PM

There's still a lot of uncertainty with the future track of Isaac once it's forecast to get into the Gulf. The models shifted west, but based on the NHC's discussion they haven't bought into it entirely, and split the difference. Until Isaac actually enters the Gulf it'll be difficult to pinpoint where it goes and the NHC has basically stated that. They may shift the track more west, but not until the models stabilize.

Anyway I expect the models, again, to shift eastward tomorrow.

The condition of Isaac itself right now, it's looking like it's making a run for strengthening right now, but recon won't be out to verify this for a few hours.

The wave action and surge remains probably my biggest concern because of the size of the wind field in Isaac.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Trekman]
      #93659 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:05 PM

Well the NHC did say they did not move the cone more west because they did not want to make a huge shift in 1 update hope that helps and my prayers are nobody gets hit by this but it seems likely someone will.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93660 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:08 PM

Clark they did say they did not move the cone more west due to that so if there was a shift east even in the models it would only be back in line with where the NHC is now.Right now they are on the right of the models and from what i read it was after the storm gets near landfall that they are not buying into not its trek into the gulf


notice there wording

In about 48 hours...Isaac will be nearing
the western portion of the ridge and should move in a general
northwestward heading over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...but large
differences exist between the latest ECMWF and GFS models after
that time.

AFTER the 48 hours in which it is way out in the gulf not the next 48 hours but the time after 48 hours is what they have no faith in.

Just stating fact.Here is the model run http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ecmwf-12/ec_sfc6-ani.html and if you look at the end of the run this is what they were talking about not agreeing


Edited by ralphfl (Sat Aug 25 2012 11:39 PM)


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93661 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:08 PM

Sat image is looking better by the hour. Upper outflow is increasingly getting better and storms firing near center. It almost looks like cnter trying to nudge under the convection to the north. It would have to take a pretty good jog west to hit the next point. Of course the new track will come out in a half hour and it will adjust to be in line with current location. I am still perplexed on how far west thw models went in one run. Bad data??? Dont know but I dont see anything out there yet that suggests a westerly track. But then again I am not the expert. And I agree Mike C I think the models will shift back. I find it hard to believe that isaac misses the trough with him intensifying right now.

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