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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #93662 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:12 PM

ummm 1 run? its been like a full days run not 1 run its been the 00 last night the 06 today the 12Z the 18Z and now the 00 z so way far from 1 run.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93663 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:35 PM

0Z GFS starts out a bit too far south (over Cuba), but not enough to make too much difference I think.

It crosses the Lower/Middle Keys around 8PM Sunday, then moves west northwest into the Gulf, (doesn't really get too close to Southwest Florida)

The wind field remains huge to the northeast though, so quite a bit of Florida will get nasty/rain winds and the Tropical Storm Warnings seem legit because of that.

Gets fairly strong in the Gulf, heads northwest towards Louisiana.... Landfall there late Tuesday evening. Then rides west along the coast of Louisiana.

Two GFS runs west, if the Euro follows odds are the official track moves west at 5AM.


...


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93664 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:43 PM

I can see a TS warning easy for the whole west coast of Florida with squalls the whole day Monday BTW schools have already been called off on Monday in Manatee County.

I think the west coast will see ala TS marco type stuff it all depends on if you are near the feeder bands are not.

Best wishes to everyone and keep a eye on it


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93665 - Sat Aug 25 2012 11:46 PM

Schools are closed Monday here in Manatee county already and i look for TS warnings in the next full update for the upper west coast of Florida.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93666 - Sun Aug 26 2012 12:42 AM

This is my major concern. It is not an organized Cat 1 or 2 storm. The bad weather is in several areas far from the center that is being tracked. The storm could go through the keys and S Florida will be on the "dirty side' and see huge amounts of erratic rainfall, high winds and flooding and they have been lulled into security thinking it's tracking far to the West. There are memories of storms ... HURRICANES that did that and we in miami got very little. This is a different set up... and it is still "coming together" and when it is in the middle of the Straits we will see what happened...by then Miami and other areas far away might already have had severe weather.

Storms like this are harder to predict in ways than neat, compact, small Cat 2s

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93667 - Sun Aug 26 2012 01:02 AM

Quote:

This is my major concern. It is not an organized Cat 1 or 2 storm. The bad weather is in several areas far from the center that is being tracked. The storm could go through the keys and S Florida will be on the "dirty side' and see huge amounts of erratic rainfall, high winds and flooding and they have been lulled into security thinking it's tracking far to the West. There are memories of storms ... HURRICANES that did that and we in miami got very little. This is a different set up... and it is still "coming together" and when it is in the middle of the Straits we will see what happened...by then Miami and other areas far away might already have had severe weather.

Storms like this are harder to predict in ways than neat, compact, small Cat 2s




Another great post,my guard is very much up tonight.I am very surprised on how strong the winds and waves are here on the beach tonight.This has been a crazy system to say the least,and I think it may have a surprise up it's sleeve.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93669 - Sun Aug 26 2012 01:43 AM

Good evening and Good morning...I'm going to keep this brief given it's early morning at my house and the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are split this evening as many of you are well aware of. Looking at the 26/00Z upper charts it is quite evident what the GFS ensemble is looking at; the narrow ridge axis that was depicted at 25/12Z from off the coast of central LA to Orlando, FL then ENE into the AO to the Bermuda upper ridge has built and strengthened by 20 meters everywhere and the longwave trough over the east has lifted out quite nicely and everything south of Charleston is inverted now and winds are from the NE aloft at 500 millibars. I went hunting for this low/mid level low NHC mentioned in their 11 pm discussion; darn if I could find it though I did pick up a surface trough...possible positive tilt shortwave along generally a west to east then northeast then north and northwest into Issac where thunderstorms are firing. I can find no definitive data to indicate what Issac is to do once in the Gulf of Mexico nor am I going to speculate where and when. Right now, the westward shift is viable if this ridge axis and multiple upper centers remains in place; however, the model have been insistent about retrograding the upper ridge west and progressing the shortwave in the middle of the country and deepening once again the long wave trough along the eastern US and what remains is all timing as to what will be where and when and the ensembles are simply split; the irony is it is now the ECMWF and its ensemble implying recurvature and sending the cyclone into northern FL coast and the GFS advertising a date with New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast; opposite from a couple of days ago. I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Issac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land, over Cuba. The long wave trough at 200/300 millibars extends south through the peninsula of FL then exiting SW FL into the GOM...wind shear analysis continues to show 30 knots from the SW aloft over convection over FL, Florida Straits near the Keys decreasing to 10 knots to near the center of Issac; overall shear is decreasing in velocity. One note, I do not input data from previous or similar tropical storms and/or hurricanes; while there may be similarities the bottom line is the data in the here and now and the data inputted into the models and their respective ensembles is unique to that storm. Only in regards to climatology what a storm's track and strength are relevant; tropical cyclones present themselves in an incredible number of personalities, flavors, hybrids and structures just to name a few; we have much to learn as why one storm does this and another with the same "ingredients" does another. Issac thus far has been a bit like the family black sheep; different!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93670 - Sun Aug 26 2012 02:10 AM

After all this???????

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93679 - Sun Aug 26 2012 08:45 AM

Quote:

berrywr: I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Issac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land, over Cuba. The long wave trough at 200/300 millibars extends south through the peninsula of FL then exiting SW FL into the GOM...wind shear analysis continues to show 30 knots from the SW aloft over convection over FL, Florida Straits near the Keys decreasing to 10 knots to near the center of Issac; overall shear is decreasing in velocity. One note, I do not input data from previous or similar tropical storms and/or hurricanes; while there may be similarities the bottom line is the data in the here and now and the data inputted into the models and their respective ensembles is unique to that storm.




And that's why I do history. There's only so many ways to write a book
and to 'run' a hurricane.

Isaac's now in hurricane alley.

There's a reason everyone from Mikanopy to Spanish galleons to CentCom
have picked Tampa Bay as HQ....

Isaac now follows the Classic Retired Analogs:

It tracked nearly due westward, eventually becoming clearly identifiable on satellite imagery on August 9. By that time, the thunderstorm activity concentrated into a circular area of convection. The next day, it moved through the Lesser Antilles, although there was no evidence of a closed circulation. On August 13, the wave passed near or over the southern coast of Jamaica as its convection spread northeastward through the Bahamas. Subsequently it began a slower motion to the northwest. On August 14, the Hurricane Hunters flew to investigate for a closed circulation near the Bahamas as well as near the Cayman Islands.[2] The crew observed a developing center in the western Caribbean, and winds quickly reached tropical storm status. It is estimated Tropical Storm Camille developed late on August 14 with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of Grand Cayman.[2][3]


Initially, Hurricane Camille was forecast to turn northeastward toward the Florida panhandle. Instead, it continued northwestward and rapidly intensified. Its eye contracted to a diameter of less than 8 miles (13 km), and strong rainbands developed around the entire hurricane. Due to the small eye, Hurricane Hunters at first had difficulties in obtaining the strength; however a flight late on August 16 recorded a very low pressure of 908 hectopascals (26.8 inHg), with winds estimated at 150 mph (240 km/h).[2] At the time, it was not expected to intensify further.[3]


Wiki


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93680 - Sun Aug 26 2012 08:57 AM

Camille went right over my school.

The Brother said the anemometer blew off at 210.

Katrina put 20+ ft all the way to the CSX tracks.

CSX wanted to then build 10 miles inland.
Above I 10.

Someone nixed that idea.

The school was rebuilt to withstand a Katrina.
It and the church across the street, pews stacked on the alter
was all I could recognize.

The new US 90 bridge should hold.

Don't know how they reworked the CSX bridge crossing Bay St Louis.

A stalled Isaac in the MS/Pearl River Estuary, you might as well
build a levee from River Ridge to Claiborne to I 10 to the Jackson Barracks
at the industrial Canal.

Give every (school, city, county) bus driver in NO a bus and tell 'em to fill 'er up
and get N of the Lake.

A stalled CAT 3 in the MS River Estuary, they'll either have to blow the
S Levees and lose the MS
or
save the MS and lose NO.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93682 - Sun Aug 26 2012 09:48 AM

did any models shift back east so far today? was checking i see more west then yesterday


Prediction Miami area will see small squalls less then afternoon TS type since it seems now to be headed farther and father west.

I see the West coast of Florida with small squalls from Tampa south to around Sarasota and then some maybe larger squalls with TS winds.

All in all East coast FL nothing

West coast some small squalls

SW coast Florida some squalls

Now time to worry for those who will be in its path...

Edited by ralphfl (Sun Aug 26 2012 10:22 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93685 - Sun Aug 26 2012 10:38 AM

Just a request to stay on topic - and a reminder that we do have a Hurricane History Forum.
Thanks,
ED


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93686 - Sun Aug 26 2012 10:52 AM

Looks like Isaac is fighting off the dry air intrusion to his SW quite nicely - from WV Lop as of 10:52 EDT.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 26 2012 10:57 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93689 - Sun Aug 26 2012 11:52 AM

12Z GFS, west even more, stalls out along the coast south of Morgan City, LA Wednesday morning. Puts New Orleans with the dirty side of the storm, and then SLOWLY moves westward in or along the coast of Louisiana.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93692 - Sun Aug 26 2012 12:18 PM

Quote:

12Z GFS, west even more, stalls out along the coast south of Morgan City, LA Wednesday morning. Puts New Orleans with the dirty side of the storm, and then SLOWLY moves westward in or along the coast of Louisiana.





I was looking at tide tables--and someone please correct me if I'm wrong--but the timing of landfall predicted by the GFS (00z Aug 29) would coincide closely with high tide in the New Canal (6:28 PM CDT).

~danielw: I looked at the Rigolets tides for the 28th and 29th and the 00Z arrival of Issac would be just after the High Astronomical Tide. I other words the water would pile up before and after High Tide. The tide wouldn't go out it would just get higher. This is based on the Rigolets and Lakes Bourne and Ponchartrain tides. Water gets blown into these areas and can't get out. ( Well it can get out but it ain't pretty, floods New Orleans if it goes out that way)

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 26 2012 12:34 PM)


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93693 - Sun Aug 26 2012 12:22 PM

The latest GFS track might actually be the best case scenario. Isaac would gradually weaken as it skimmed along the Louisiana coast, with the strongest wind affecting mostly coastal swampland. Then the extreme drought-stricken middle of the country would get a hugely beneficial tropical rain.

Moderator Note: The comment that Isaac would weaken in the latest GFS track is an assumption actually not made by that model. These last few GFS runs actually look like a horrible case scenario: large, major hurricane in the north-central GOM only slowly moving west-northwestward, with very little, or no weakening to speak of. These GFS runs suggest not hours, but potentially days of unrelenting storm surge, heavy rain and hurricane-force winds on the northern gulf coast. Variations on that general theme were in the 25/18z , 26/00z, 26/06z, and 26/12z runs, with no significant weakening indicated to speak of.


Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 26 2012 01:58 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #93695 - Sun Aug 26 2012 01:32 PM

Latest Key West radar (as of 13:31 EDT) shows a hint of consolidation and compression of the eye.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93696 - Sun Aug 26 2012 01:35 PM

Convestion also exploding to the south.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93699 - Sun Aug 26 2012 02:37 PM

and also the 2pm has not bumped the winds up at all.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Issac - 26/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93700 - Sun Aug 26 2012 02:44 PM

I have a date cutting my yard when I'm done...my apologies for being a bit later than usual..however, it is Sunday! The models continue to be in two camps; with the ECMWF and UKMET being in the east camp and the GFS and it's kissing cousins making LA/MS having Katrina flashbacks. At 500 millibars the upper ridge axis I have talked about over the past 36 hours continues to remain in place and is building and heights have now risen to an average of 5900 meters with a 592 dm center over Southern Alabama; the axis is slightly inland and extends the entire length of the Gulf coast. The upper low over VA has cut itself off further aloft at 300/200 millibar which is evident on water vapor imagery and shear analysis reflecting about 20 to 25 knots from the SSW to NNE out ahead of Issac; it has weakened but nevertheless should inhibit rapid intensification despite ideal conditions in every other way. What the ECMWF and UKMET are picking up is what remains of an earlier in the week longwave trough which has lifted out quite nicely but what remains is this upper low and it's adjoining shortwave trough which lies just west of Charleston, SC southwestward to a position between Tallahassee and Jacksonville where there is a COL in the northeastern GOM where the upper ridge axes and shortwave trough and Issac's inverted trough meet. The other player in all of this is a shortwave trough in the middle part of the country expected to move east and deepens the longwave trough again along the eastern US. I'm still waiting for whether an upper ridge sets up shop in the Inter-Mountain West as models continue to advertise. There is a very small window of opportunity if Issac opts to make its welcome along the Alabama/Florida coast; otherwise it does appear that the narrow ridge axis along the Gulf coast will be strong enough to; one, the trough in the plains states to bypass the cyclone and two, steer the system west and then northward as the models have been advertising with this IM west upper ridge center that has yet to develop. Radar imagery out of Key West has Issac moving generally NW but there has been a bit of wobbling to the NNW. Y'all have fun!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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