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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Issac - 26/12Z Upper Air Analysis [Re: berrywr]
      #93701 - Sun Aug 26 2012 02:59 PM

2PM NOAA Discussion

THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL
MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY
3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93703 - Sun Aug 26 2012 03:26 PM

Quote:

I can find no definitive data to indicate what Issac is to do once in the Gulf of Mexico nor am I going to speculate where and when. ... I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Isaac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land ... - by Berrywr on Saturday Night




My, what a difference a day can make with regard to ongoing storm developments !!

Tropical Storm Isaac has exhibited increasing signs of consolidation and organization today. As the day began, the issue of multiple vorticies remained in evidence, with at least 2 of them, near and over Cuba and another possibly lurking to the NE.

Additionally, and more significantly, Isaac was essentially roughly half a storm, with all it's (meager at best) deep convection and associated cloud and shower envelope largely confined to the NE SemiCircle, with it's north-westernmost extent of this "half pie" arcing back across Florida, providing intermittent bursts of frenzied winds and driving rains across the southern half of the peninsula.

But from the 5 1/2 hour time lapse visible satellite loop shown below, you can clearly see that Isaac rapidly attained a much more symmetrical appearance as the ancillary vorticies weakened and spun down over Cuba and deep, sustained convection formed near a still sloppy and rather elongated center of circulation.

Then, slowly but surely, the innermost structure began contracting down and intensifying and a steadily improving long range Doppler signature out of Key West began to confirm, finally, what has been a long time coming: A solid trend towards intensification.



In the final few frames of the satellite loop, you can certainly notice the flareup of deep convection on BOTH sides of the 'developing eyewall', which is also borne out on Doppler. The deepest convection has formed a 'partial eyewall' in Isaac's NW quad and has, within the hour, just lashed the southern Keys and Key West.

With a steadily improving and developing eyewall structure, and with the approaching overnight convective maxima cycle, I can reasonably assume that Isaac may finally attain that which has eluded him thus far: A well developed eyewall and it's attendant Hurricane status.

Here's my question: With plenty of high oceanic heat content ahead of the storm, and assuming ongoing and increasing organization, and (presumably) lessening shear in the Gulf, and a good, long track run up the gulf to the MS delta region (or points eastwards), WHAT is to prevent Isaac from rapid intensification, perhaps to Major proportions?

It's already HUGE. If it were to also attain high end Cat 2 or even Cat 3 strength, we'd have a real problem to deal with, especially N.O., should Isaac ultimately track near or over that city, considering the coincident near-full moon tidal issues with the flooding of surrounding canals, lakes, etc., as has been discussed. Your thoughts?


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upsman
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #93708 - Sun Aug 26 2012 04:33 PM

looking at a visible satellite loop and man this thing is forming an eye wall pdq! wild how it is following almost the ssame track as Katrina too and dates close too crazy stuff. http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurrica...mp;enlarge=true

--------------------
LJ


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: upsman]
      #93712 - Sun Aug 26 2012 05:12 PM

5PM NOAA Discussion


ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND
CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO
WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: upsman]
      #93713 - Sun Aug 26 2012 05:22 PM

lost more down to 55ph soo could be down to 50 and keep going west IMO

Although satellite and radar images have suggested that the tropical
cyclone was becoming a little better organized...an Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft investigating Isaac this afternoon have
found that there has been no strengthening of the storm.
Flight-level and SFMR-observed winds support an intensity of 50 kt.
There is still a well-established upper-level outflow pattern over
the system..


Edited by ralphfl (Sun Aug 26 2012 05:24 PM)


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mcgowanmc
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: cjzydeco]
      #93732 - Sun Aug 26 2012 09:28 PM

Quote:

Quote:

12Z GFS, west even more, stalls out along the coast south of Morgan City, LA Wednesday morning. Puts New Orleans with the dirty side of the storm, and then SLOWLY moves westward in or along the coast of Louisiana.




The tide wouldn't go out it would just get higher. This is based on the Rigolets and Lakes Bourne and Ponchartrain tides. Water gets blown into these areas and can't get out. ( Well it can get out but it ain't pretty, floods New Orleans if it goes out that way)





http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LyBIiLYLBRY

NO can't win. It's a huge pile of mud on the edge of the MS Canyon.
And it's sunk 7 inches, the Gulf has risen X since Katrina.

A stalled Cat 3 20/30 miles N of Deepwater Horizon,
NO will be right back to Sep 1, 2005.

Minus Airport and Superdome for Emergency Shelter.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Aug 26 2012 09:33 PM)


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: kromdog]
      #93736 - Sun Aug 26 2012 09:48 PM

Right now I just don't see much to suggest a high probability of a significant turn northward. SWAG based largely on local and past experience, and little more, but right now I would guess little turn, a close approach to the LA delta region, a jog west, with landfall late Wednesday morning around the TX/LA border - Cameron, LA to Sabine Pass - as a strong Cat 2, possibly Cat 3. Pretty close to HWRF 1800Z prediction.

Edited by TXEB (Sun Aug 26 2012 10:13 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93741 - Sun Aug 26 2012 10:16 PM

ive have been in the euro mode camp since the start with the wnw but each model run has went west with no backing to the east

Florida will be normal we get TS each day just a little extra wn but some much needed rain in some areas.

Here is praying it does not get stronger


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #93759 - Mon Aug 27 2012 06:16 AM

A significant portion of dry air entering from the SE. It also looks like the main area of convection really took a westerly jog in the lat few frames of the WV Loop.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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mcgowanmc
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #93762 - Mon Aug 27 2012 07:14 AM


(Off-topic material removed ...)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 31 2012 01:01 AM)


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93763 - Mon Aug 27 2012 08:19 AM

Tampa Bay Doppler is showing an eye, but it's near the long-range limit, so can't see what's on the other side. Radar gives the appearance of a fairly diffuse system, with not much storm activity of the GOM in spite of the sat images showing what appears to be well developed convection in the core region.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93764 - Mon Aug 27 2012 08:26 AM

We're about to find out via rapid intensification
or not,

Quote:


Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict Katrina’s path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more frequent) hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Model Simulation of Trend in Hurricanes (from Knutson et al, 2004)

In the particular simulation shown above, the frequency of the strongest (category 5) hurricanes roughly triples in the anthropogenic climate change scenario relative to the control. This suggests that hurricanes may indeed become more destructive (1) as tropical SSTs warm due to anthropogenic impacts.




http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/09/hurricanes-and-global-warming/

As far as I can tell, Katrina and Isaac are almost Identical at this point.

corrections Always welcomed.

The NHC Still has very little in the way of Intensity predictions.

and the only thing that's changed in NO, is that it's 7 inches lower in elevation and
the GOM is at least 3 inches higher.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93765 - Mon Aug 27 2012 08:57 AM

This system and Katrina share very little in common other than position in the Gulf at this time out. The oceanic heat content in 2005 in the Gulf was quite a bit higher than today, and Katrina did not have the decoupled center issue as it crossed south Florida as a category 1 storm.

This system is also fighting some hostile conditions to the south that will prevent it from rapidly strengthening. It has the tilted south/north core. Surge potential will be a lot less because of the windspeed (although surge most assuredly will still be an issue).

In short, Katrina is a bad comparison, Isaac is nowhere even close to that even at this point.



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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93768 - Mon Aug 27 2012 09:40 AM

Good comment Mike. this is no Katrina...it is not even a Debbie.
However there are indications of strengthening, I think.
Some of the squall lines crossing the Ft. Myers area this am have had lightening which ususlly means a strengthening system...There is still the dry air infiltrating from the south though

--------------------
doug


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93770 - Mon Aug 27 2012 10:05 AM

MikeC is right - as a system Isaac bears little resemblance to Katrina other than it's general position in the SE GOM, forecast path and landfall, and time of year (last week in August)

After Katrina crossed FL and emerged in the GOM as a TS, it rather quickly regained strength to hurricane status. Throughout it's crossing it maintained a well defined eye, something we have seen only glimmers of from Isaac. Once in the GOM Katrina underwent concentric eye-wall regeneration and went through two periods of rapid intensification, the first of which occurred over the 24 hour period after entering the GOM and dropped the pressure to ~940 mb, bringing Katrina to a Cat 3 system. Already large and strong, Katrina went from there to then becoming the monster storm it was.

Issac has shown little similarity in system behavior to Katrina, and atmospheric conditions are radically different. However, the forecast track and LA coast projected landfall target surely bring back memories of the forecast track for Katrina that came out over the late August weekend preceding Katrina's landfall.


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93771 - Mon Aug 27 2012 10:06 AM

doug - is it dry air or is it shear that has the SE quadrant looking so ragged and thin?

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MikeC]
      #93777 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:35 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93779 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:51 AM

If you want historical storm information, the NHC puts out good reports with the data on all storms since 1958. The one for Katrina can be found here. You can also look through the forecast and advisory archives, for Katrina here , note the link to the Graphics Archives at the top of the page.

I live ~ 60 miles south of Houston. School started today. We are watching, plans at the ready if needed, but nobody is expecting to be doing anything. The petroc-chem / oil industry here along the coast starts preps anytime there is a storm in the GOM, regardless of forecast. About the only sure action thus from our side of the line is that evacuation of all offshore rigs has already been done. Action here has been about the same as it was for Katrina (alert only). We ran like ... uh ... heck from Rita a few weeks later, the next and last was Ike.


Edited by TXEB (Mon Aug 27 2012 11:55 AM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93780 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:53 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93781 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:57 AM

Again this storm is nothing like Katrina. Read the article and talkback history in 2005 on this very site for more on the situation then.

Anyway, the GFS is a bit east this run, probably because of center relocations, the strength of the ridge will wind up determining exactly where Isaac goes.


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