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I can find no definitive data to indicate what Issac is to do once in the Gulf of Mexico nor am I going to speculate where and when. ... I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Isaac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land ... - by Berrywr on Saturday Night

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My, what a difference a day can make with regard to ongoing storm developments !!

Tropical Storm Isaac has exhibited increasing signs of consolidation and organization today. As the day began, the issue of multiple vorticies remained in evidence, with at least 2 of them, near and over Cuba and another possibly lurking to the NE.

Additionally, and more significantly, Isaac was essentially roughly half a storm, with all it's (meager at best) deep convection and associated cloud and shower envelope largely confined to the NE SemiCircle, with it's north-westernmost extent of this "half pie" arcing back across Florida, providing intermittent bursts of frenzied winds and driving rains across the southern half of the peninsula.

But from the 5 1/2 hour time lapse visible satellite loop shown below, you can clearly see that Isaac rapidly attained a much more symmetrical appearance as the ancillary vorticies weakened and spun down over Cuba and deep, sustained convection formed near a still sloppy and rather elongated center of circulation.

Then, slowly but surely, the innermost structure began contracting down and intensifying and a steadily improving long range Doppler signature out of Key West began to confirm, finally, what has been a long time coming: A solid trend towards intensification.



In the final few frames of the satellite loop, you can certainly notice the flareup of deep convection on BOTH sides of the 'developing eyewall', which is also borne out on Doppler. The deepest convection has formed a 'partial eyewall' in Isaac's NW quad and has, within the hour, just lashed the southern Keys and Key West.

With a steadily improving and developing eyewall structure, and with the approaching overnight convective maxima cycle, I can reasonably assume that Isaac may finally attain that which has eluded him thus far: A well developed eyewall and it's attendant Hurricane status.

Here's my question: With plenty of high oceanic heat content ahead of the storm, and assuming ongoing and increasing organization, and (presumably) lessening shear in the Gulf, and a good, long track run up the gulf to the MS delta region (or points eastwards), WHAT is to prevent Isaac from rapid intensification, perhaps to Major proportions?

It's already HUGE. If it were to also attain high end Cat 2 or even Cat 3 strength, we'd have a real problem to deal with, especially N.O., should Isaac ultimately track near or over that city, considering the coincident near-full moon tidal issues with the flooding of surrounding canals, lakes, etc., as has been discussed. Your thoughts?

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12Z GFS, west even more, stalls out along the coast south of Morgan City, LA Wednesday morning. Puts New Orleans with the dirty side of the storm, and then SLOWLY moves westward in or along the coast of Louisiana.

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The tide wouldn't go out it would just get higher. This is based on the Rigolets and Lakes Bourne and Ponchartrain tides. Water gets blown into these areas and can't get out. ( Well it can get out but it ain't pretty, floods New Orleans if it goes out that way)

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LyBIiLYLBRY

NO can't win. It's a huge pile of mud on the edge of the MS Canyon.
And it's sunk 7 inches, the Gulf has risen X since Katrina.

A stalled Cat 3 20/30 miles N of Deepwater Horizon,
NO will be right back to Sep 1, 2005.

Minus Airport and Superdome for Emergency Shelter.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Aug 26 2012 09:33 PM)

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Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict Katrina’s path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more frequent) hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Model Simulation of Trend in Hurricanes (from Knutson et al, 2004)

In the particular simulation shown above, the frequency of the strongest (category 5) hurricanes roughly triples in the anthropogenic climate change scenario relative to the control. This suggests that hurricanes may indeed become more destructive (1) as tropical SSTs warm due to anthropogenic impacts.

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