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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93782 - Mon Aug 27 2012 12:13 PM

Good morning...Issac is elongated NW to SE on satellite imagery and appears to be a redux of Ike but either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane...Mike's right; this is NOT Katrina and will not have the impact that Katrina wreaked on LA/MS...Issac will produce the real possibility of flooding and I have faith New Orleans is ready. There is a weak trough along the lee side of the Appalachain (never can spell it right either) with height falls along the north central and northeast coast...neutral west. Upper ridge axis remains west to east but is further inland than previous runs. All the models are in the same camp now and close together and I see nothing to suggest otherwise; we're 36 hours away on the fastest 48 hours on the slowest. As for whether it will be a hurricane...maybe...but Issac is taken on an appearance that is more of a hybrid/subtropical and the overall structure that isn't conducive to strengthening.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Cash
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93783 - Mon Aug 27 2012 12:18 PM

I appreciate the appropriate perspective provided above by MikeC - who clearly knows of what he speaks - as well as CaneTracker's post. There's just no basis for comparing this system to Katrina beyond the dates and, very roughly, the track.

These things are fascinating to follow, and from a strictly scientific curiosity perspective, it's tempting to fall into the trap of wanting to see these things evolve into something extraordinary. But you can't have been through one (or many more) of these things and wish them on anyone. I realize that might not have been the intent of some of the above posts, but the attempts to read more drama than necessary into this situation doesn't read well.

This site is a tremendous resource and though I'm a rare contributor, I would ask that contributors stick to information and avoid hyperbole.

Cash


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93794 - Mon Aug 27 2012 03:11 PM

i think the NHC has been good with this storm so far and i really think we might see a cat 1 came maybe at landfall that is my guess.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 31 2012 01:06 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Cash]
      #93805 - Mon Aug 27 2012 06:17 PM

Every storm is different and atmospheric conditions vary greatly from storm to storm. This is not Katrina. It is Isaac. Wit that said, however, the Gulf Coast should be preparing for the storm. Those ordered to evacuate should get out.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Cash]
      #93809 - Mon Aug 27 2012 07:55 PM

OK.

No hype.

Cantore:

Cat 2. No electricity for 24 hours. 20 + in as the


New Orleans Levees About to Get Near-Failing Grade
www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/new-orleans-levees.../54542

Schleifstein explained that New Orleans' internal drainage system can only ... "The pump system handles an inch of rain per hour for the first few hours. ... rainfall as Hurricane Isaac is forecast to move through the area late this week and into ...




8 mph.

Moving over West of Laplace straight
towards Baton Rouge.

Slowing as it moves past. Don't want to say 'stall'.

That's the ECMWF and the GFS.

Now what am I hyping.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93810 - Mon Aug 27 2012 08:03 PM

TWC is all about hype. That's how they get viewers and the primary reason that I refuse to watch it/them. I get my info directly from the NWS, National Hurricane Center, and local TV and radio (and here, of course ).

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93812 - Mon Aug 27 2012 08:11 PM

(Post was off-topic.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 27 2012 11:47 PM)


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FL52
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93813 - Mon Aug 27 2012 08:55 PM

HI....I would like for you to take a look at this....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfstropical850mbVortSLP348.gif


What do you think????


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: FL52]
      #93816 - Mon Aug 27 2012 09:32 PM

348 hour forecast is way too far out. But, it is something to keep in mind. That's only 14 days away.

Double deuce. Snake eyes.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: FL52]
      #93817 - Mon Aug 27 2012 09:36 PM

A model that has done rather well with Isaac is the experimental FIM model. Its certainly a model to keep an eye on the rest of the hurricane season. And yes once we get through Isaac we do have some areas to watch coming off Africa which global models have been showing some development. But in the short term Isaac looks a bit more ragged in its inner core as dry air is likely being pulled in. In short NHC forecast looks good.

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FL52
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93818 - Mon Aug 27 2012 09:37 PM

I am a new kid on the block with this site...

I know the GFS on this is very far out, but just thought I would put it out there for all to chew on so to speak...


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93819 - Mon Aug 27 2012 09:40 PM

I believe the Army Colonel that Cantore interviewed said the pumps could handle an inch for the first hour and then a half inch per hour. Not a whole lot of water being pumped out at that rate.

The 12Z models Rainfall accumulation Forecast for KMSY New Orleans Airport.




Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 27 2012 09:44 PM)


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Orlando
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: FL52]
      #93820 - Mon Aug 27 2012 10:29 PM

As Ed is so good at saying, this is a Forecast Lounge for Isaac, not something two weeks down the road. Please stay on topic. Cheers.

(You are correct - and Ed is also firm about reminding everyone to let us Moderate the site.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 28 2012 06:40 PM)


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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93821 - Mon Aug 27 2012 10:41 PM

Looking at the models, it appears the NHC is just west of all the models. So will they adjust their track at 11:00 or are the models just fluctuating?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: jaybythebay]
      #93825 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:21 PM

I just glanced at the models and they are clustered just south of New Orleans. Hurricane Betsy type track.
The left models stop at Vermillion Bay, the bay on the central Louisiana Coast and the right models stop at Mobile Bay. These are the early models.

The late models extend from Port Arthur, TX to Gulf Shores, AL

Not much spread in there. The EXTRAP extends just south of New Orleans and follows or leads the clustering.

Latest RECON drop has 979mb with a 28 mile EYE that's open to the South. Things Could change here shortly. Almost All of the models would be worthless if Issac forms an EYE and the pressure continues to drop.

I believe the GFS correctly predicted a consolidation of the Vortex about 4 days ago near the present location of Issac.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93829 - Tue Aug 28 2012 06:18 AM

I believe I see an eye form on the last frame of the AVN at 0945 UTC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67

Edited by OrlandoDan (Tue Aug 28 2012 06:19 AM)


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93831 - Tue Aug 28 2012 07:03 AM

That's an eye. And according to Shortwave
the Circulation Symmetry looks perfect.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Dvorak:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/bd0-lalo.jpg

North Half fills in and it's a Cat 2 +
at landfall.

Watching for reduced forward speed now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-swir-long.html

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 29 2012 09:23 AM)


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93833 - Tue Aug 28 2012 08:04 AM

There's a clearly discernible eye in the NO / Baton Rouge Long Range radar loop, but it's ragged and open on the northwest side. It is also visible in the RGB colored floater loop, but again ragged, forms, then opens on the NW side. The radar loop also gives the appearance of a system with with good circulation overall and convection building in the NE to N region of the storm, but somewhat thin and diffuse overall on the north and west sides. For right now, (~1200 Z) better views of the east side via radar are seen in the loops from Mobile and NW FL . Unfortunately, range limits don't let us see the south side via radar, and that's where the sat images show the greatest density and convection.

Fortunately for those of us who live along the north Gulf coast, Isaac is not showing signs of fulfilling what I thought was its potential. It is still a large, and troublesome storm, and many areas will see significant flooding as well as some wind damage. But it appears that it will be tame relative to what at least I thought it was going to turn into, and that's a good thing. This is one of those times where I will be relieved to have been quite wrong.

edit - watching the NOLA radar loop a bit longer, Isaac appears to be tracking more westerly than the NHC's indicated track (305°) maintained in the 0700 CDT advisory.

Edited by TXEB (Tue Aug 28 2012 08:11 AM)


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93838 - Tue Aug 28 2012 10:49 AM

Is it just me, or does the shape around the core look more ellipsoidal than circular, giving movement a somewhat wobbly and at times slow appearance as Isaac creeps up on the north Gulf coastline?

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93843 - Tue Aug 28 2012 12:14 PM

Yep...you're correct. What appears as the eye is not; the center of the cyclone is just to the WNW and both latest vortex message and radar confirm this. Issac according to NWSFO New Orleans has slowed to less than 5 knots based on aircraft recon fixes.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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