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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93257 - Mon Aug 20 2012 08:26 PM

less and less dry air and warmer water ... as well

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:51 PM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93258 - Mon Aug 20 2012 08:39 PM

94L has not changed much with respect to convection however the LLC is well defined and think its just a matter of 24 hrs or so before we see a gradual intensification on this system. Deeper moisture to the east and south should gradually be pulled more into the center however it will likely battle dry air while over the Atlantic. As far as the future track of this system the GFS still looks good to be and model guidance at least the so called more reliable models are all fairly close. Beyond 5 days is hard to tell but a threat the U.S is moderate I would say especially the Southeast U.S...

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:52 PM)


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93259 - Mon Aug 20 2012 09:27 PM

Just a quick follow up for now: As I had speculated earlier, the convective and organizational trends established during the daylight hours (see animated visible satellite loop, previous post) have continued unabated during the diurnal convective max cycle, with the convective banding features so clearly evident previously in the SE quadrant, have continued to intensify and also increased in aerial extent, all the while pulling in closer and closer to the low lever center of circulation.

Moreover, thunderstorms have begun initiating closer what was previously an exposed LLCC, especially immediately to the W and SW of the center, as clearly portrayed in the following animation.



NRL has lowered the central pressure by a millibar, while bumping up the estimated sustained winds to 30 knots, and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook reveals " ... ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW."

I think we're well on our way to cyclogenesis, and should convection continue to increase overnight, I'd not be at all surprised to see a Depression, or even a named storm, by the break of day, local basin time.

(PS: Yes Lois, you are spot on: I was referring to Isaac Cline, the Meteorologist at Galveston in 1900, when that city was utterly destroyed, with the loss of 6,000+ lives, including his wife and many he knew. I'll be making a separate post in the "Hurricane Ask / Tell" Forum soon, to share with those who may not know the story of Isaac Cline and the harrowing ordeal he went through, greatly underestimating the impact of the US's deadliest hurricane.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:52 PM)


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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93260 - Mon Aug 20 2012 09:37 PM

94L is really confusing me. It seems to have a distinct center, but little convection in that area. Down to the SE there is moderate convection but tonight it doesn't seem to have any flareup. What concerns me is that if it doesn't gain strength now, the GFS might just be right and the storm makes its way into the Caribbean before starting to gain strength and turning north through Cuba and into Florida.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:53 PM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Mozart]
      #93261 - Mon Aug 20 2012 10:13 PM

I would guess that we will probably have a depression by early morning on 94L. While convection near center is minimal right now I think it is slowly getting its act together. Dvorak numbers are only 1.0 right now from both TAFB and SAB, would like to see these in the 1.5/2.0 range. Again it is quite surprising to see the reliable models in such good agreement through through the long term. As this develops and moves into Caribbean the important factor will be its interaction with Hispaniola and eastern mountains of Cuba. If it slides just south z(GFS/ECMWF) of the these islands it could mean a stronger storm/hurricane.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:54 PM)


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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93262 - Mon Aug 20 2012 10:51 PM

I'm confused about something. Someone in another forum posted the current GFS ensemble. It seems to lean toward a Myrtle Beach/Wilmington landfall while the GFS is still pointing to Florida. Am I just missing something here? Doesn't it seem like the two should be in line with each other?

Anyway, either scenario points towards a strengthening of the storm before it hits land in the US. (Yes, I'm a fan of the GFS. It just seems to have a better handle on these things.) Based on that and the overall computer model outlook, people in the Southeast need to have their eye on this one. I'm not seeing major hurricane as yet in the overall outlook, but it could really cause some problems for people in these areas. Fortunately, I think that few in these areas overlook the potential that these storms could cause based on the recent history. Now is the time to start making preparations with regards to storm necessities, not at the last minute like most will. Not wishcasting, just trying to make the case that everyone needs to keep an eye on this one.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 20 2012 11:47 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD 9 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93264 - Tue Aug 21 2012 04:52 AM

Invest 94L has just been upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine. Tropical Storm Watches & Warnings have been issued for much of the eastern Caribbean, and it is likely that Nine will become Isaac today.

Nine's internal structure is very impressive, and now that the cyclone is able to more efficiently chase away dry air, it is possible that it intensifies faster than initially forecast; while such an event could give the Antilles a blow, yet spare the rest of the Caribbean and Florida, this is by no means a guarantee. High pressure to Nine's north is pretty solid, and it is not clear whether enough weakness will exist to allow even a moderate tropical cyclone to veer poleward prior to getting a good deal further west.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93267 - Tue Aug 21 2012 08:01 AM

For beyond the Caribbean talk, The forecast track is going to be heavily influence by Hispaniola, if it moves over Dominica/Haiti it will tear the system up leaving rain if it were to make it close to Florida. If it manages to stay south of the island it has a chance to remain more together and a chance to affect Florida mid next week.

Too much up in the air to say anything more than watch it, the latest global GFS does take it over parts of Haiti and Cuba, but also though the spine of Florida. Expect that to change several times.

This storm is in a similar position to Irene from last year, so in reality, if it survives the northern Caribbean islands, those in the US from Florida on up will want to keep track of it. Puerto Rico and the US VI are in the Tropical Storm watch area.



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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93268 - Tue Aug 21 2012 08:16 AM

Given the expected near Cat 3 strength, I'm expecting the path to move poleward over time. Here's a link to Irene about the same time last year http://outerbanksvoice.com/2012/08/20/first-anniversary-of-the-birth-of-hurricane-irene/

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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stormtiger
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Reged: Thu
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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93270 - Tue Aug 21 2012 09:31 AM

Kudoes to Coconut Candy for some very good forecasting yesterday. Great job, great explanation and great visuals.

Right now it seems to me like the two big factors are the dry air and how much it limits the future Issac in the near term and causes it to stay weaker, and the orientation of the Atlantic ridge and just how far West it extends in the next 3-5 days.

I think the GFS and the European models both have a good handle on this storm, and the key will be whether or not the future Issac stays south of central Cuba or strikes Hispanola or Eastern Cuba. The broad track seems pretty clear, but the devil is in the details.

A front passed through La. early yesterday and it is leaving a weakness for Issac to take north. Right now that path seems to be open towards Florida and specifically the southern tip.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: stormtiger]
      #93271 - Tue Aug 21 2012 10:24 AM

It looks as though we could have Issac rather soon Dvorak numbers are 2.0 TAFB and SAB. Satellite presentation looks to be improving some as it moves west at a good clip impacting the islands late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Future track reasoning has changed little since yesterday, agree with NHC track up to this point with their track following closely to GFS which has been rather consistent to this point. Their experimental track through day 7 has this following GFS right up the spine of Florida. I don't think theres any question that there will be a weakness however does it turn up through the western Bahamas, over Florida, or slightly further west (eastern Gulf) is to early to tell. For now I like GFS, of note GFS ensemble members are little more east then yesterday but flip/floping that far out is likely and would expect and much higher confidence in track by end of the work week. I would be on alert in Southern U.S from eastern Gulf to South Carolina.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed in Va]
      #93272 - Tue Aug 21 2012 10:59 AM

The new GFS has slipped south of Hispanolia and the European still wants to take it to the central GOM. My biggest concern is that if it misses Haiti there is a huge amount of oceanic heat content in its path and the loop current is especially warm this year. I also have a great concern in there will be a lot of nonresidents in the Tampa Bay region which is one of the most dangerous areas to be in should a strong hurricane come calling. This to me looks like a cone anywhere from New Orleans to Cape Hatteras...but Haiti will be key...if it misses...we are looking at a major hurricane IMO

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93273 - Tue Aug 21 2012 12:23 PM

The 12Z GFS run ( Linked here ) takes it through eastern Cuba, landfalling in the Keys late Monday/Tuesday and again in Southwest Florida going up through the spine along the west coast.

This will probably change again.


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93275 - Tue Aug 21 2012 01:43 PM Attachment (476 downloads)

Is anyone else struck by the similarity to the 1964 Cleo track? That storm is my earliest memory, recalling my father doing a no-no and going out during the eye to clear debris in our back yard.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #93276 - Tue Aug 21 2012 01:55 PM

I remember Cleo. A very similar track indeed. And, Cleo made a sharp turn. Also same time of year.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/CLEO/track.gif

Waiting to hear data from recon...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 344
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93277 - Tue Aug 21 2012 02:05 PM

The Forward speed has slowed to 18mph from this morning. I have bias on the NOGAPS and a path over or to the north of hispanola and up the back bone of the bahamas. The NOGAPS calls for slowing sooner then later.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 344
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93278 - Tue Aug 21 2012 02:29 PM

I was thinking, the NOGAPS slows the storm down considerably then turns north, it also tries to develop another the low to the ne of isaac. could this be 96L behind isaac. I was thinking something like a TS Fay track but further east. Mayby the low the NOGAPS seas is it trying to pull out all the moisture, as in an error. and that isaac instead gets trapped?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93279 - Tue Aug 21 2012 02:36 PM

The amount of dry air affecting TD#9 is pretty significant, which will likely keep it weak for another day or so, but it still may get to Tropical Storm status today. The latest Euro takes it into the Gulf, it is still a relatively large area out for the future of TD#9, and it may fall apart if impacted by the islands too much.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #93283 - Tue Aug 21 2012 03:43 PM

As my tag implies...I have a better than normal understanding of Cleo...one should also remember Cleo tangled with Hispaniola and Cuba yet managed to hit S FL as a strong Cat 2 with 100mph winds in MIA. Dont forget these storms can reintensify very quickly even after all that

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93288 - Tue Aug 21 2012 06:59 PM


The latest GFS run (18z - link)takes it over the keys late Monday, over southwestern Florida and out into the Gulf near Tampa Bay Tuesday night, and landfall in the big Bend near Apalachee Bay on Wednesday night (same area where the worst flooding from Debby occurred)

A reminder this will probably change over time, but the trends are important to note, GFS and Euro models have historically been the better performing ones over the last few years.

Along with the above the 18Z NOGAPS (which has done horrible the last few years), is keeping it east of Florida.

Starting with the next model run (0z) some recon data will start to be inputted.


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