Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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You have to give some serious respect to those models (GFS/Euro) and while we are still about 5-6 days out from possible U.S landfall like Mike said you have to keep a eye on trends and has not changed much. While we had over 9+ inches from Debby and as I write this we have just got 4.33 inches in past 1.5 hrs here in St.Pete the flooding threat if this were to follow would be tremendous.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Another interesting bit is how similar the discussion with Isaac may be to what Irene (another I storm) last year was.
Last year's Irene forecast lounge. This initially looked as if Florida was in the cross hairs, but eventually wound up in North Carolina and flooding in the northeast..
The biggest change was that it moved northwest over Puerto Rico early, even though initial forecasts took it over Eastern Cuba, and is very similar to what we have now with Isaac's forecast. (See Forecast History for Irene (20122) and model plots for Irene (2011)). Actually none of the models projected it going over Puerto Rico.
In short it's a bit too early to speculate while the system is when it isn't even in the Caribbean yet, I don't expect a repeat of Irene since the ridge is a bit stronger this go around, but I think it's a good framing for countering the hype that may occur.
Irene from last year (around the same Position as Isaac)
Isaac now:
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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18Z Model Isaac Roundup:
: takes Isaac into south Florida. Dade or Broward County Sunday night after moving through Hispaniola, and north of Cuba. Days.Link
HWRF:Over Hispaniola and rides the north coast of Cuba, never making much further by Monday link
CMC:Over Hispaniola and stays east of Florida by Monday
GFS: takes it over the keys late Monday, over southwestern Florida and out into the Gulf near Tampa Bay Tuesday night, and landfall in the big Bend near Apalachee Bay on Wednesday night (same area where the worst flooding from Debby occurred) (18z - link)
EURO (12z): Takes it south of islands, through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf, avoiding land the entire time. (link)
In short a lot of different possibilities at this point.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The first round of the 0z models are out (ones from the spaghetti plots), and most are clustered around South Florida this time.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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My concern at this point is,will it slow down after Cuba and soak up all that very warm water between Cuba and South Florida.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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has not history shown a general trend to the right in the forecast track over time with these types of systems? My concerns is that if it remains rather weak will a more westerly component be present in the system and keep the track to the left?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
has not history shown a general trend to the right in the forecast track over time with these types of systems? My concerns is that if it remains rather weak will a more westerly component be present in the system and keep the track to the left?
Climatologically, yes, but not always.
The model runs (6z) take it more along Cuba and then recurve it in the Gulf eventually landfalling in the Big Bend of Florida (only).next wednesday.
The keeps it east of Florida
The Euro keeps it south of the Islands and enters the Gulf as a monster storm nearing Louisiana.
The trend for most everything has been slightly west this morning.
So the spread amongst some of the more reliable models is fairly large. Around the time it nears Hispaniola (Friday) is probably a good time to recheck this system.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You are correct. Weaker systems usually travel a bit more to the west before making a curve to the north. Somewhat akin to a tall ship with sails set low on the mast.
Stronger systems use full sails and tend to curve to the north sooner, rather than later.
Examples...
1.Storm remains weak and moves south of Cuba before turning toward the North.
2.Storm intensifies and begins to move toward the WNW or NW and crosses the Greater Antilles, which usually weaken the systems due to their topography, mountains. This weakened system has to regain it's strength and therefore moves a bit more to the west before curving North.
3.System becomes stronger, crosses the Greater Antilles early and curves northward before the Bahamas
These are just 3 of the possibilities with any system in the area of the Lower to Mid Lesser Antilles and none of these scenarios are set in stone.
See MikeC's post above for actual model forecasts.
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 22 2012 07:49 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I would like to add two more model forecasts to MikeC's post.
GFDL forecast just offshore of Cape Canaveral at 72 knots or 83 mph. Pressure of 974mb
Moving north up the Florida East Coast. This is at the 126 hour forecast.
HWRF forecast just offshore SE of Miami. Winds of 78.6 knots or 90 mph. Pressure of 973mb.
Movement appear to follow the forecast of the ... up the Florida East Coast and just offshore. This is also at the 126 hour forecast point.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The average of the models still puts Florida most likely, watch the model trends for west or east movements, this could come up west or east of Florida, with the middle currently being right up Florida, and the trending of the models moving slightly west.
Again, Friday should have a clearer picture. But right now the model spread is annoyingly large.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The key here is Hispaniola. If it feels the tug north there...FL, if not enough tug...Euro solution looks credible. Looks like Isaac is in a strengthening mode right now...stronger storm better chance for a tug north. The Euro solution is a scary one...analogues for that solution are , Camille, and .
This doesn't look like an East Coast FL storm to me
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Aug 22 2012 10:47 AM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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For the general user, this may of interest - from :
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012
...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD...
THE MAJOR THREAT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH
HURCN ISAAC WHICH IS CURRENTLY CHURNING THE WATERS NEARBY THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATEST TRACK SUGGESTS THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF CUBA BY 25/1200Z WITH A
GENERAL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CARRYING IT NEAR THE FL KEYS BY
27/1200Z. FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT ISAAC TOWARD THE SERN U.S. BY MID-NEXT
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A
VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR
INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S. THE CURRENT TRACK INDICATED
BY THE GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE 00Z /GEFS MEAN THRU D5 WITH
HPC CONTINUING ITS GENERALLY MOTION TOWARD THE NNW INTO CNTRL GA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...PLEASE VISIT THE LATEST
TRACK OF HURCN ISAAC ON THE WEBSITE AT www.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE ...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE IN NATURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MEAN NEG ANOMALY SHOULD BE FEATURED JUST TO THE WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH THIS AXIS OF HGT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING SERD
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND/COASTAL PAC NW BY 27/1200Z. CONSIDERING
TELECONNECTIONS UTILIZING THIS NEG ANOMALY CENTER...A BROAD AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
WITH A GENERAL MAX ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK
SIGNATURE...AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE IN PARTICULAR WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL
ROLE IN HOW MUCH LATITUDE ISAAC WILL GAIN THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC/ENS GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE...THE IDEA OF
THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS CONVEYED ACRS THE BOARD.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NRN STREAM TROF MOVING THRU
THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ERN U.S. DOES VARY WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS OF
THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ISAAC. CURRENTLY...THE 00Z /ECMWF ENS
MEAN MAINTAIN A STRONG ENOUGH 500-MB RIDGE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF 30N. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLN THE PAST 4 RUNS...INSIST ON
ISAAC BEING DRAWN NWRD. OVERALL...HPC FAVORED A SOLN COMPRISING
THE 00Z /GEFS MEAN WITH SOME COMPLIMENTS FROM THE 00Z UKMET
EARLY ON GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE HANDLING OF THE NRN STREAM.
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Dry air continues to plague Issac's development as it speeds to the West. The weaker he stays the more west it will likely go; thus taking the Eastern seabord and the Bahamas out of the picture.
This season storms have not strengthened as expected. Dry air and fast tracks west have inhibited development and most models have erred by showing the storms strengthening more than they actually did.
I think this pattern is continuing with Issac which is a large storm with larger problems in getting its act together.
I see Issac staying weak, almost missing Hispanola while turning WNW and then NW over Pilon Cuba and then Central Cuba and on towards Key West.
Accordingly the GOM from 85 longitude east should stay vigilant and the further west of the Florida peninsula the stronger it could get as it heads NNW.
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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The 1935 Labor Day, 1960 Donna and 2008 Fay
are the closest analogies I can find
for a Hurricane going up the West Coast of Florida.....and that track S of PR.
Only Fay crossed Hispaniola and the narrow part of Cuba into Havana.
The 1935 Labor Day was the only one I have that literally raked the W Coast of Florida.
Donna the only Cape Verde, but like the 1935 Labor Day, going N of the Greater Antilles.
Correct me but I don't find a hurricane approximating Isaac's path.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This is where using analogs can be deceptive, but check out Cleo in 1964. Similar early track (and time of year) but Cleo was a much stronger hurricane.
UNISYS Track of Hurricane CLEO
ED
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Current motion would lead you to believe that just maybe the has a better handle on Issac. Today...right now, I couldn't tell you whether Florida...east side, directly over and up the peninsula or west side or up into the Gulf of Mexico. The longer Issac remains "shallow" the more west the cyclone will go...if and when Issac develops enough structurally and vertically it will then feel the tug of the upper air environment over the eastern side of the United States. There is a COL or break between the mid-continental ridge and the Bermuda ridge and a longwave trough over the NE USA extending down the Eastern US giving Issac a track to go. It is where these players will be as we go forward, how strong they will be...which ridge is stronger in however Issac is nudged one way or the other east and west. Central Georgia is in a D3 and D4 drought and could really, really use the rainfall...that said, N Florida has been drown once this year already and they don't need the extra rainfall. Ed pounded into me a bunch of years ago this 5 day rule this website has and I've adopted it over on our Facebook page this year. I realize we're all looking at Florida but I think in due time our focus will be on the Gulf Coast but that is a solid week from now...any adjustment to the left of the current track will put Issac over Cuba paralleling it over land, not taking the short route directly across from south to north; until that track is better defined Issac is not likely to be a very strong cyclone when it exits Cuba.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Isaac center has been difficult to find on satellite and radar. Isaac overall large circulation is quite sound and its inner core region has been having a hard time. Starting to lean towards Issa staying south of Hispaniola at least the inner core of the storm likely staying just south of the island however eastern Cuba still looks to take the direct hit. While this does not matter much as the storm is quite large and rainfall enhanced by the mountains in those countries will lead to mudslides and significant flooding. Beyond Cuba and I like still for now with track into the FL keys and up the west coast into the Big Bend of FL. Now it Issac does not get its act together and keeps booking west it could very well make it all the way to the central Gulf but that would likely be it about as far west as the short wave trough would easily pull Issac north So I would be on guard from MS coast area east to FL and still into the south Carolia area albeit this is starting to look less likely. Time will tell. But it it does take the and certainly the Euro route this could really deepen....
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It seems the westerly track may be what's favored, but it may be going too far west, and I'm concerned that initialization on the models isn't that great for it. (Especially the Euro). Trends may continue west, but I think they will get overdone and eventually trend east again. In short Gulf coast through Florida and the east coast will need to watch it through the weekend.
Models may be more useful Friday, depending on how the Gultstream jet and initializations are done and if Isaac ever gets itself together, recon is still out looking for real winds, when it should be pretty easy to spot.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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18Z models:
GFS: Rides west coast of Florida, landfall near Big Bend
GFDL: Back East, over south and up through the middle of the Peninsula
HWRF: Rides Cuba Slowly (Run ends just northwest of Cuba with a slower storm)
EURO(12z): Gulf Storm, landfall Mississippi
CMC (12z): East of Florida, Landfall near Savannah
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I think he is slowly getting his act together,and by this time tomorrow I believe we will have Hurricane Issac.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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