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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93337 - Wed Aug 22 2012 08:31 PM

Which circulation center will win out? I think the more northerly one will in the long run, but recon reports will be interesting. I just don't see it getting its act together tonight, tomorrow perhaps.

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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: TD#9 Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #93338 - Wed Aug 22 2012 08:34 PM

I can't decide between the Euro and the GFS on this one. The GFS has been good all year, but all indications I've seen is that Isaac is tracking a little south of that one, which puts the Euro into play. A few factors in play make me think the Euro has a better handle on this one, which should put the Gulf coast on alert. The NHC keeps moving the track westward and the climate conditions seem to favor keeping it down a little longer as it's not building up the strength we keep expecting it to. It's just not organizing like the other models are thinking. That being said, the key seems to be where it goes over Hispaniola. If it doesn't make the turn north, as the Euro says it won't, we could be in for a big one. SST's in the Gulf are ripe for developing a storm. Here's to hoping that nothing is right and Hispaniola and Cuba take all the bite out of this one and it lands as a minor TS that doesn't cause too much damage.

On a side note, I wouldn't mind a little rain here in the upstate of SC, but a few models make me think of TS Jerry in 1995. Flooding was intense and my brother in law received a commendation for jumping into a drainage pipe and rescuing two girls that were sucked down it. He rescued one but the other didn't make it. I don't want a repeat of that here.

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: TD#9 Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Mozart]
      #93341 - Wed Aug 22 2012 08:56 PM

Did not want to log in but had to with the other comments posted here.If you look at history from this area in the past 5 different times i can find where models have had it coming up the west coast of Florida but ending up in different far away places.

SO #1 we have history which says from here up the west coast of Florida is very low.

# 2 It was noted the Hwrf model run did not finish and this is NOT true it did finish and it is moved way west to near the euro.

What does all this mean in reality? IMO it means watch the storm and IF and When it gets its act together then we can start to think where it might go.All it is now is guessing.

I know this is the forecast lounge and people give there thoughts so my thought is anything past Friday is a pure guess that is my track

But wanted to point out the other model run did finish the HWRF and it is moved way west from its last run.

Best wishes.


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93342 - Wed Aug 22 2012 08:58 PM

Thanx Ed.

Cleo does come close.

OF course you're correct, but again

2008 TS Fay:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2008/FAY/track.gif

Cleo missed Hispaniola entirely and came up thru the narrow S to N
Cuba.

I can't find a Hurricane that transversed the Greater Antilles
and then made Hurricane into West Florida.

That's alot to ask.

Again. Great site. Good info.

thanx.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93352 - Wed Aug 22 2012 11:05 PM

Center seems to be solidifying again overnight, so Isaac has a chance to get a bit more organized overnight tonight. The slight drift westward may continue tomorrow, but the ridge break may cause it to diverge a bit. Gulf coast, and Florida still need to watch it, and can't rule out the southeast entirely (although chances there are dropping).

Friday is still probably going to be best bet for seeing what the trends are.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93359 - Thu Aug 23 2012 12:05 AM

0Z GFS run is going now, it's in the Florida straits around 93 hours away (sunday) near the Keys on Monday...

then keeps just barely offshore the west coast of Florida and starts to slow down (bad for storm surge)

Starts drifting westward away from Ft. Myers area..

Starts deepening west of Tampa (still drifting westward), then more northward (toward panhandle)

Landfall near Panama City Beach Wednesday.

Trend is a bit different from the prior run, but still has Florida (keys, west coast, and Panhandle in the target.

Still models are not to be trusted with weak systems like this, so it will likely change again.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93360 - Thu Aug 23 2012 12:29 AM

I agree not to be trusted when the system is weak would you be able to give a link to see the GFS earlier then i see it? cause you get it faster then i do would save me sleep thanks

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93362 - Thu Aug 23 2012 01:11 AM

Looking at the latest WV there is no doubt he is getting much better organized.The center is more defined.This is going to be very interesting to see how it plays out.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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threwerback
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Homosassa, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93365 - Thu Aug 23 2012 06:43 AM

Salutations from CITRUS COUNTY FLORIDA, North of Tampa about an hour in a little hamlet known as the Manatee Capital, Homosassa Springs. It appears we just might get some action from ISSAC. Should we, I'll be happy to give a amatures non scientific blow by blow. Be well and safe to those effected..
TerB

--------------------
"I would much rather be able to say I was glad I did than wished I had"
EHS

Edited by threwerback (Thu Aug 23 2012 07:03 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: threwerback]
      #93366 - Thu Aug 23 2012 07:18 AM

Models overnight and this morning have shifted slightly east.

The 6z GFS is very similar to the earlier run, but is slightly closer to the west coast of Florida, and has an interesting track back over the Atlantic from the Carolinas.

The 0Z Euro model moved eastward, and the CMC moved westward, so the alignment of the models is a bit better. It takes it over westward cuba and landfall is near Pensacola, FL. Wednesday night/Thursday.

6Z HWRF takes it in over Miami monday night, and it winds up over Tampa on Tuesday evening,

Still the initialization and structure of Isaac is poor, so changes may still occur, and adjustments both west and east will likely occur. Tomorrow hopefully should start to clear some of it up.

The large size of Isaac means it is likely to cause quite a bit of storm surge issues if it enters the Gulf and rakes along the west coast of Florida.

GFDL has landfall between somewhere Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach early Monday.

See the bottom of the main page for the model links.



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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93367 - Thu Aug 23 2012 08:15 AM

The latest vortex message continues with another reformation of the center or multiple vortices; this one at 14.5N 64.2W and weakened to a tropical depression. Looking at satellite, looking at the circulation one would think it may be as farther west at 66W but I think we're looking at multiple centers once again. I'm not one to openly disagree with the NHC but I was not impressed at all with this discussion and how they determined the center fix. There is no evidence of a west-northwest and/or northwest movement as plotted on graphics. Only the ECMWF got the southwest location correct; where they got the GFS and other models being onboard, I do not know, but I continue to believe the ECMWF is the model of choice for the time being.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93368 - Thu Aug 23 2012 08:16 AM

Old wives tale, not too scientific, but something an impressionable 9th grader took to heart in the advance of Donna in 1960 was the appearance of "mares tales" in the otherwise clear sky approaching at 40k feet from the southeast. My science teacher, a navy vet who worked in the weather service in the Philipines, called us all out to see them and then said he had seen these numerous times as cyclones approached and invariably they announced the arrival of a tropical system. He correctly predicted we would be significantly influenced by that sysstem which was still down near Puerto Rico..
This morning as I drove down at dawn from Manatee County to Lee County...there they were ...this is a large system and, although weak at the moment, will command a lot of geography. Based on this unscientific observation, I feel confident that in about 72 to 96 hours, southwest and west central Florida will experience whatever this system has to offer...we'll see,,,

--------------------
doug


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93369 - Thu Aug 23 2012 08:40 AM

IN 12 hours, the position has gone from
16 N to 15.4 N.

All movements to the W.

Am I missing something?

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_6d.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

1 more shift to the West and one more shift to the East and the
EMCWF and the 'outliers' should be matching up..... :?:


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93370 - Thu Aug 23 2012 08:49 AM

The center is very uncertain, even now, jumping all over the place from vortice to vortice.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93371 - Thu Aug 23 2012 08:52 AM

The key here seems to be that imminent 310-315 degree 'jog'
that the NHC put in about 36 hours ago.

And then it resumes it's 280-90 degree course.

And the NHC has just shifted that jog (lasting about 6 -8 hours at current speed) with each forecast.

Take out that 'jog' and Isaac misses Hispaniola and gets close to the EMCWF.

Question: What is going to cause that jog?


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93372 - Thu Aug 23 2012 08:54 AM


"The center is very uncertain, even now, jumping all over the place from vortice to vortice."

But doesn't that imply weakness and isn't weakness
what the CW says will move it further to the West?


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93374 - Thu Aug 23 2012 09:25 AM

To be honest,I don't know why it is not getting stronger.There is not much dry air anymore,low shear and warm water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 61
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93376 - Thu Aug 23 2012 10:37 AM

Dominate COC appears to be south of the NHC points. Also important to note that it has slowed down over the past several hours.

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #93380 - Thu Aug 23 2012 11:32 AM

Issac s inner core continues to struggle while its overall structure is well organized. If Issac can get a defined center, i really think this storm could take off in intensification there is nothing really stopping it. I still believe this brushes by Haiti and then into Cuba before heading towards the KeyWest area Monday ish. After that I am still riding the GFS with it going up the west coast towards the big bend region. Again if this storm can get its inner core together which I believe it will soon, but I thought it would have by now, this storm could strengthern quickly before reaching Cuba followed by possibly rapid intensification in southeast Gulf.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93383 - Thu Aug 23 2012 11:55 AM

Right now, the model that seems to be handling things best out of the majors is the LBAR. It has been pretty consistent on the south edge of the cone. I am thinking that it might have the right idea. The storm stays weaker and so persists more to the west. It would then miss most of othe effects of Haiti and threaten Jamaica. Staying a bit south then allows it to strengthen more rapidly leading it to cross Cuba more sharply and heading into the Florida Straights.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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