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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93428 - Thu Aug 23 2012 09:18 PM

Meet Hurricane Frederic 1979.
Near identical circumstances, except for Hurricane Davis being proximal to Frederic. Check the track map against what we are looking at.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Frederic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/frederic/prelim01.gif


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WeatherNut
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93429 - Thu Aug 23 2012 09:24 PM

You know you've been looking at the SAT too long when you start to see Bozo the clown...
(a little comic relief)


--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93430 - Thu Aug 23 2012 09:35 PM

Seems as though they are getting extrapolated readings under 1000 mbs now in the region of 16.6 N 68.7 W. Of course, its extrapolated but certainly the lowest that I've seen from the HDOB reports.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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mcgowanmc
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93431 - Thu Aug 23 2012 09:44 PM

Thank you, Daniel.

I knew someone would post a 'look a like'.

I was thinking of Mobile. And remembering Frederick.

But note the 'land interaction'.

Fred avoids Hispaniola coming off PR.

IT then takes the shortest path across Hispaniola
before Again taking the 'easiest' route between Haiti
and across the Southern edge of Cuba.

With the exception of the Western Tip of Cuba,
Fred never crosses land again.

Every model except EMCWF puts Isaac across the most formidable part
of Cuba with a good part of Hispaniola thrown in for good measure.

And again it moves up the very wet west side of Florida
and into the very wet Panhandle.

All my cousins, friends for the last month who went to Destin, Florabama sent back Cloudy Day pics...


I think Isaac rides along the Southern Edge of Cuba.
Like Frederick.


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berrywr
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93432 - Thu Aug 23 2012 09:58 PM

If there's a center at 16.6; it's tiny; I still believe the center point of all this mess is sub 15.0N near 14.5N and 68.0W. I looked at the 24/00Z Upper Air Charts...and the mid-continental ridge strengthen ever so slightly and I see by the chart they ran a sampling mission tonight which should really help the global models tonight.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #93433 - Thu Aug 23 2012 10:16 PM

I remember Frederick well as we had just gone through David in W Palm Beach. He meandered across Cuba and if I remember, most predictions said he wouldn't survive or do much. Then he started going north and picked up a LOT of energy across the loop current! I could see something like that happening with Isaac, but I still don't see it moving north enough to be hurt by hispanola as much as originally forecast.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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ralphfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #93435 - Thu Aug 23 2012 10:41 PM

center at 16.0 and 67.1 hmmmm 1003 MLB not getting stronger.

(Actually the 11pm Advisory stated 1001mb.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 23 2012 11:21 PM)


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berrywr
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #93438 - Thu Aug 23 2012 11:22 PM

I see what NHC is looking at...can't rule that location out but what concerns me is if these multiple vortices continue it sets up the possibility of that the center NHC is plotting gets obliterated by interaction with land and the area of convection to the southwest where moisture availability is much better it too could become the dominant center. There isn't a lot of activity on the north side of the system so its possible Hispanola could be spared a bit.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93440 - Thu Aug 23 2012 11:32 PM

Interestingly the 0z NAM and GFS (which just initialized with some of the Gulfstream IV Recon data) are showing a pretty significant weakness in the ridge that I didn't notice before. That leads me to believe the models may shift eastward, which may be what the NHC was discussing about the short term. (longer term it may move more west)

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93442 - Thu Aug 23 2012 11:44 PM

Mike....I keep hearing that stronger systems curve more and weaker systems don't. This seems to be the case as Isaac hasn't really trended NW even though the forecasts keep saying it will...but the forecasts also made it stronger. SO...if it stays south of Hispanola and Cuba and is able to strengthen more, will that cause it to curve more, shift the cone to the right later in the period, and put Florida back into play. Possible? Probable? Out of my mind?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93443 - Thu Aug 23 2012 11:44 PM

GFS is turning out interesting tonight, late Sunday midday it's only just made it north of Cuba, and is moving much slower. Raleighwx or instant weather maps linked on the front page is a good place to check these out if you are interested (they are still being generated)

Here comes the western jog from the NHC disccusion, Monday morning it's over the Lower/Middle Florida Keys.

Rides up west coast of Florida, just offshore of Marco island and then moves more northwesterly, dirty side of storm still fairly close to Tampa.

Landfall near Fort Walton Beach/Destin in the late afternoon, evening on Tuesday.

Track is just slightly east of earlier runs (~100 miles east at the northern gulf landfall point from the 18Z model), with a stronger storm, but slower forward motion.

.Note this model sill depends on a good initialization point, which is still somewhat suspect. So, unfortunately, expect some changes still.


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CoconutCandy
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93444 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:15 AM

The story of multiple low level centers continues. There almost assuredly remains at lease a couple of low level vorticity centers embedded within the overall cloud mass, each center seemingly generating their own intermittent deep convection.

However, unlike the previous few days when deep convection came and went, the main difference tonight, now that we've entered the overnight convective maximum cycle, is the SHEER AMOUNT of deep and sustained convection of the 'bursting' variety, with very cold cloud top temps of -80 and colder, what used to be called "Hot Towers" in the old days.

Additionally, the massive thunderstorms are beginning to assume ever so telling comma shaped patterns about their respective low level centers, implying quickly training thunderstorms, very fast vertical updraft velocities, and in the process, they are imparting enormous amounts of energy via the release of stupendous amounts of latent heat of condensation and warming the middle atmosphere, feeding the warm core, lowering the central pressure and, eventually, increasing the winds and expanding the diameter of the wind field by way of an escalating, self sustaining, positive feedback mechanism.

It's Happening Right Now. This is finally(!) the night that Isaac transforms into something mightier than he's been thus far. Something the models can finally get a real handle on. Something 'more tangible' the reconnaissance missions can log into their flight recorders and make all those dropsondes more worth expending. Something to really REV UP the media engine. And, unfortunately, something to potentially inflict great discomfort and misery for hundreds of thousands still living in tents and flimsy shacks on Haiti. Something to really give the Republican Convention something to think twice about. Something that just might break Florida's unprecedented(?) string of nearly 2,500 days since it's last hurricane landfall. Now, THAT'S something to write home about !!

This scatterometer image taken just before sunset Thursday speaks volumes of what many of us have been going through, especially the superb crew at the NHC, poring over the various satellite photos exhibiting a plethora of vorticity maximums to contemplate and harangue to the Nth degree.

(Of Note here is the Total Lacking of any PURELY West Winds. Can you find any ?!? Let me know!)

It's even possible there may be some binary interaction among the centers, with the LLCC's slowly revolving about one another. But eventually they should consolidate, with only one center winning out, possibly by consuming the other.

Yes, so far 'Isaac' is a strange one for the record books. But now it's time for 'Isaac' to really show us what he is capable of.



..


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93452 - Fri Aug 24 2012 07:32 AM

Initialization, ie,center location) problems, may make the details of the models be off, but if the system stacks further south, the models will likely shift west again. Today is the big day for that, if it remains weak and disorganized it will get torn up and drift a bit west, if the stacking that appears to be happening occurs, and strengthening happens, the models may be closer to being correct (although likely to shift somewhat to the west).

The 0z euro implied a keys crossing and a western panhandle landfall, and the CMC implied a southeast florida landfall, and then another in the panhandle. GFS was keys crossing, and Destin area landfall. HWRF 6Z implies brief keys crossing and landfall in Mississippi.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93453 - Fri Aug 24 2012 07:48 AM

I think that the proof of model problems is pretty obvious in the almost straight line forecast tracks. When does a tropical system ever move in an almost straight line from southeast to northwest? I have seen them move straight WEST for quite a while, but not for 7-800 miles to the northwest very often. I think I am a bit more concerned for my area of Florida NOW than when those cones were right on us. Everyone here seems to be relaxing (MUCH less hype in the news) but when/if this gets together, that track will have to begin curving somewhere and Florida will still be in the path. Need better info soon!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93454 - Fri Aug 24 2012 07:52 AM

Morning All.

Could someone explain the difference
between the
OFCI
here:

http://flhurricane.com/images/2012/clark9latest.png

and the official

NHC track?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

OFCINHC official forecast (Interpolated 06 hours)

Because NHC has Gulf Shores Landfall and OFCI has Pearl River.

Thanx.

Blown Away wrote: Looks like Isaac has slowed way down? The centers are becoming stacked. Looks to me from the last pass that the FL center and the 850 center are now stacked and at about 15.4 / 70.1. That apparent NW motion in the vortex fixes will also stop. That was the FL center catching up to the SFC center. They should now start moving 285 or so. Now that they are stacked...hold on to your seatbeats. OK...going fishing.

Shurikan: In any event, the mean vector of the convective blob has been moving steadily almost due west since east of the islands; and, given Isaac's behavior so far, I'm inclined to doubt any asserted movement otherwise until I actually see the convection trend in that direction as well.


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TXEB
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93456 - Fri Aug 24 2012 08:28 AM

Quote:

Morning All.

Could someone explain the difference
between the
OFCI
here:

http://flhurricane.com/images/2012/clark9latest.png

and the official

NHC track?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

OFCINHC official forecast (Interpolated 06 hours)

Because NHC has Gulf Shores Landfall and OFCI has Pearl River.

Thanx.





I suspect the difference is a result of the times corresponding to the NHC forecast plots. The Evans OFCI plot is marked 0600 UTC, the NHC track you reference was 3 hours later at 0900 UTC or Z. The 0900 UTC plot probably reflects and update from the previous one shown in the Evans image.


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93458 - Fri Aug 24 2012 08:53 AM

So the Evans OFCI is an 'unofficial' NHC?

Until the NHC over rides it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim16ir.html

Edited by mcgowanmc (Fri Aug 24 2012 08:56 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93459 - Fri Aug 24 2012 08:59 AM

Quote:

So the Evans OFCI is an 'unofficial' NHC?

Until the NHC over rides it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim16ir.html




No the Clark image has the 11PM Track. That model output map is for 6Z (2AM EDT) It's just an older official track.

You can see older official tracks here
When you look at track maps, it's vital to check the timestamp on them. Z (Zulu) time is +4 from EDT right now, so subtract 4 hours anywhere you see a Z time. Standard time is +5.

Ie, 6Z is 2AM EDT, 12Z is 8am EDT, 18Z is 2pm, 0z is 8pm. When the models refer to it, it refers to the time of initialization, not when they are available.. GFS usually shows up 3 1/2 hours after the initialization time, the euro a little later than that.

The NHC's current forecast track (including the entire cone) still seems ok, although it may drift west some today, but not much.



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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93462 - Fri Aug 24 2012 09:33 AM

The system is better defined this morning than when I last looked yesterday pm and I complianed about the lack of a west wind component, and believed that the system resembled a trough rather than a closed cyclone. The center is obviously on the northern extreme of the two convective masses on the western portion of the system. As I looked this morning, the challange will be if the system will pull that mass of convection around the center, and there are some signs it may be doing that. If that process does occur, the message from NHC has been that conditions are conducive for rapid intensification...today over the next few hours we should see if this system will finally structure itself and become a more prominent feature.

--------------------
doug


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TXEB
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93465 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:08 AM

For the next 48 hours, it looks like Isaac's major challenge will be that posed by interaction with the SW of Hispaniola and then Cuba. The NHC forecast and discussion suggests that little strengthening is expected - maybe a 10 kt boost, but mostly around 45 kts - until it emerges into the FL straights, if it lasts that long. I am not convinced that today is the critical period for Isaac. It may be more like the 48-72 hour period.

The NHC discussion at 0500 EDT indicates that Isaac is well skewed to the south with increasing altitude from the surface. This has no doubt distorted the view as seen by satellite images, which have at times given the appearance of a COC well south of the NHC reported positions. The MTCSWA , however,, shows a very well depicted cyclonic flow around the NHC's positioning. If you further look at the evolution of that analysis over the past 24 hours, it indicates clearly increasing organization at the surface level.

I suspect the big question is vertical organization over the next 48-72 hours as Isaac interacts first with Hispaniola and then Cuba. Will it pull itself into better vertical alignment, or will it remain tilted toward the south with increasing altitude?

Edited by TXEB (Fri Aug 24 2012 10:09 AM)


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